Aaron Gordon and/or Evan Fournier will be traded. It's just a matter of to which team. From yesterday's theathletic article:
Gordon is far more likely to be traded than Vucevic, in my opinion. First, Gordon has only one full season remaining before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, and although Gordon has never expressed any public disillusionment with the team or Orlando, he would pass up an opportunity if he doesn’t explore his options.
Gordon and Isaac are best suited to play power forward on the offensive end. Schematically, the Magic would excel defensively with a starting forward pairing of Gordon and Isaac. Offensively, however, it would continue to be a severe struggle, as it’s been in past seasons. Neither player is a natural small forward who regularly creates efficient shots on his own. Also, Gordon and Isaac have not proven they can sink 3-pointers at a high enough rate to space the floor. Playing Gordon, Isaac and Fultz simultaneously is a recipe for subpar floor spacing.
This duplication of skills means that either Isaac or Gordon is expendable, and the Magic already have committed long term to Isaac, extending his contract for the next four full seasons at $17.4 million per season.
So if the Magic trade Fournier or lose him in free agency, a pathway for the team to obtain a starting shooting guard is to trade Gordon.
Of course, all of this begs a question: Why would the Magic want to part ways with Fournier in the first place?
The argument for holding onto Fournier beyond the trade deadline, and then either extending his contract before free agency or re-signing him in free agency, makes some sense from a pure X’s-and-O’s perspective. He’s one of the few reliable scorers on a team that generally struggles to generate offense. He is one of the few above-average 3-point shooters on a team with precious few quality shooters. He also draws shooting fouls. And at 6 foot 7, he’s a versatile, though erratic, defender.
Fournier, 28, does have flaws. He played poorly in the Magic’s two recent postseasons, although it’s fair to say that he was sick during last August’s series against Milwaukee. He also has a maddening tendency to take high-difficulty shots instead of passing, though it should be noted that his assist rate has improved this season.
The more significant disincentive to retaining him is financial. Because of the luxury tax, most teams cannot afford to keep all the players they might want to keep, especially if those players are in the primes of their careers.
Assuming Aminu exercises his player option, the Magic already have committed $114 million in guaranteed salaries next season to 10 players, including the recent contract extensions for Fultz and Isaac. And the $114 million figure does not even include the salary of the team’s 2021 first-round draft pick and the three or four additional players who would fill the remaining spots on the roster.
In that scenario, the Magic would not be able to fill out their roster and re-sign or extend Fournier at a reasonable rate without going into the luxury tax and/or severely hampering the team’s long-term cap flexibility. Salary-cap issues, by the way, also would make it less than palatable for the Magic to trade Fournier and unrestricted free agent-to-be Khem Birch for a player such as Sacramento starting two-guard Buddy Hield, who is due to earn an average salary of $20.8 million over the next three seasons. Without other cost-cutting moves, bringing in Hield and subtracting Fournier would leave the Magic in as much, and likely more, salary-cap peril than re-signing Fournier.
So this is the dilemma the Magic face: Either they can part ways with Fournier, or they can retain him and face a toxic salary-cap situation. And if the Magic trade him before the deadline, one of the best ways to fill his starting role long term would be through a trade — a trade that could require the team to give up Gordon.