Agreed, it seems people haven't been focusing on Lonnie at all this season, and are compounding his earlier troubles with these recent ones. He's HARDLY the same player he was as a rookie, and NOT in a good way, yet posters here would have you think he's failed to develop or something. There is such a thing as mishandling a prospect - and of course, there is such a thing as a prospect getting into their own heads irreparably, or never taking "that step", or putting it all together. At the end of the day, I don't think we'll ever know the real root of the problem - that is, unless Lonnie does get traded, and his performance picks up under a different coach/scheme/team.
I'll gladly admit I was wrong if he is traded, and fuzzles out of the league due to these current holes in his game. But to say that there's no way Pop ed up his development, is preposterous.
My guy,
Since there's proof that the frustrating way Lonnie is playing now is the same way he played in college, could it be that the way Lonnie played during his rookie year was the anomaly and not the other way around? Has that ever been a consideration? I mean, if there's a pattern of behavior, shouldn't that be likely more truthful about his performance than the one year he played aggressive, no?
Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to stir everyone's thoughts about this subject.
A starting job is little improvement if you're still constantly being punished for your performance and playing your game. At its core, I think Pop really believed he could take the "hard dog" approach with Lonnie, as he'd done with Tony or Manu or whomever, when Lonnie just doesn't have that personality at all. Instead of getting hungry and driven from getting benched and screamed at after his first defensive miscue, he just gets in his own head, and once his confidence takes a hit, he disappears into the background. That kind of personality requires a different, positive-reinforcement based approach, which I simply haven't seen Pop try at all. At least not on the court.
At the bottomline though, I don't at all disagree that a big part of the problem is on Lonnie. I'm still (maybe one of the only posters here) holding out hope for him, but it's no secret that he should be better right now. I definitely blame him for his passiveness, his non-improvement on the defensive end and high-reads in general, and overall not "stepping up". BUT, I think you can also perfectly point out his developmental curve (which again, was on a rise, with his bubble performance being a definitive peak where he DID NOT PLAY LIKE HE DOES THIS SEASON, only to come back down this season) and wonder whether the developmental staff (Pop mainly) it up.
I don't see how both things can't be true at the same time. Here in ST, people are always so absolute about everything - either he's trash and we gotta get rid of him, or he's just a season away from supers om. Either he was always a "beta male destined to fail" or Pop pissed on his cereal every day to get him like this. Why can't a middle ground be found? I see both things, and we all saw both things, happening these past years. Or were we collectively hallucinating Lonnie getting benched for Forbes and Beli, who proceeded to have league-worst defensive performances without a hit taken to their minutes and team roles? Nah.
Ultimately, you're right, the offensive side is all in Lonnie's head right now. I'm beginning to wonder whether he'll ever "get it out". Ironically, I agree with you also - it's not all Pop's fault. My original point is against the posters saying none of it is on Pop, or that Lonnie has not improved since his rookie season (flat out false), or that he was destined to fail from the jump due to some rando scouting report. That's where I draw my line.
Good post, and I agree with everything you said....but especially this:
Pop ultimately runs the team, so he deserves some blame for anything related to that.Here in ST, people are always so absolute about everything - either he's trash and we gotta get rid of him, or he's just a season away from supers om. Either he was always a "beta male destined to fail" or Pop pissed on his cereal every day to get him like this. Why can't a middle ground be found?
Managing people and personalities is a difficult job...and there really is no black-and-white answer for that. Each personality is different, and reacts differently to conflict. There is a share of blame to go around, and people here like to jump to point fingers (and I may be guilty of that myself).
My biggest disappointment is that we've seen guys like Murray or Johnson or even Eubanks be more assertive....even if they were drafted later or not drafted at all. Lonnie obviously has a complex personality...but he has also been given opportunties and hasn't taken full advantage of them.
Pop should not be expected to a coddle a guy who, frankly, isn't performing to his abilities. But that's my opinion.
Maybe it's scheme related since we run a drive and kick offense or that teams are packing the paint because our offense is built on drives to the rim.
Disagree wholeheartedly with that assessment, D.
Aren't you also in the camp of "don't base you conclusions on other people's appreciations, but your own eyes"? I can confidently say, having scouted Lonnie before we drafted him (I had a, still ongoing, bet with an IRL friend of mine that he would turn out to be one of the stars of his draft), then watching him in Summer League, then Austin that whole season (actually watching the games, mind you, you yourself should remember my comments in the Austin Toros thread), then last season with the Big Boy Spurs, and now this one - that Lonnie does not play the way he did in college. He just doesn't. And I'm perfectly content dying on this hill, because my eyes and film back it up. I don't think there's a lot of posters here (or basketball "analysts") that have followed Lonnie like I do, and while I'm certainly not impartial in this debate, I know bull when I see it. Or read it.
Just so you see I'm not bull ting you with words alone - let's look at some film.
First one I found of his college games, since his "highlights" searches on Youtube now mostly belong to his Spurs stint. You watch that film, then watch the film of our loss against the Thunder last game, then come back and tell me he's always played this way. This was before his "anomalous" rookie season, of course. Check that clutch layup, driving into traffic, at 3:20. NO OVERPASSING TENDENCIES whatsoever, you know he was going for that basket even if all 5 defenders were on the paint against him - and he's got the tools to make it work! He's always got them. He NEVER had those tendencies in college. My point is that something happened between then - and now. And it might not be just on Lonnie. That's all I'm saying.
But to say he plays the same now as he did when that "weaknesses" report was written? Yeah, bull , I'm not falling for that.
It might absolutely got something to do with it. Lonnie was always touted (and always played with) a scorer's mentality, and I have little doubt that a part of his "development" as a Spurs player was getting him to drop the ball-hoggling, and follow the "extra pass, find the open man" philosophy which Pop loves so much. Is it a bad philosophy to have? NO. I really think it's a great team scheme. But maybe, maybe, you didn't have to over-drill that into his head ("neutering him", as local clown Duncan2k5 calls it) and try to change up his game at the fundamental level.
The best case scenario would've been that he kept his scoring mentality, whilst also learning the nuances of passing out, and leveraging his athleticism into open shots for his teammates. To an extent, I can still see that happening - if it all "clicks together". But it's looking more and more likely that we now have neither: We're getting a Lonnie who's too afraid to call his own number, too preoccupied with making "the right play", and in over-trying to do so, fails at both scoring for himself, and creating for his teammates.
Worst case scenario, for sure, if he doesn't change his ways.
You know you're my guy, Dex, I appreciate the nuanced answer.
Yeah, I see where you're coming from. Ultimately, a lot of what I'm writing is just lashing out - I'm frustrated at him. I'm frustrated at Pop. I'm not happy with his performances, especially when this year was (and still is) his opportunity to shine. I also think there's some factors playing a part that we haven't considered - COVID ed up prospects' development in all sorts of ways, and this last off-season might've been the worst one (outside of maybe the lockout seasons) for players to grow their game, due to the low time that it had and the difficulties of the pandemic. That's why I've been saying since the season started, that IMO Lonnie is still a year away.
Lastly, whilst I personally will always partly blame Pop for what happens to Lonnie, it's ok if he doesn't work out. He wasn't a #1 pick or anything, and no team ever hits on ALL of their picks - though the Spurs have always came pretty damn close to that. Every other prospect we have (except for like, what, Wheatherspoon I guess?) is blossoming in this system; so at the end of the day, if losing Lonnie is the price to pay for having a system that allows every other player to grow and develop together, I'm fine with it. Sad, but fine. Spurs fan through and through at the end of the day...
...Though I'll probably catch some of Lonnie's games on whatever team he has his second stint with. Just gotta hope it's not the Fakers
This is a really interesting discussion with good points on either side. Sugus, you said you've followed Lonnie since college. How was he as a collegiate defender? (I have no idea). Because, truthfully, while we have seen flashes of Lonnie's potential on offense as a pro, and I want to give him sometime (he's ony 22), my greater worry is I haven't seen anything from him in terms of consistent defense. So, unless his offense just explodes, it'll be tough to keep him on the court with his poor defensive efforts. (That's just my eye test percerption, I have no idea if the stats confirm this.)
Lonnie seems like a great guy and he's got great athleticism and at least good offensive skills. Much like I said with Luka, if the "light goes on" for him, he'll be something special. But if he's going to get an extension (and not buried behind Devin) he needs to hurry.
Yes, I'm in that camp. I believe you and your assessment of him since you did your homework and I haven't. The words by those scouting reports were as if they were said by a fortune teller (since they match word for word what Spurs fans complain about), which led me to believe their words in an instant, I will admit.
It is frustrating that there's not much to go by as far as college content for Lonnie so I could get back with you with an informed analysis.
I did find this one game:
I'll go watch it. It's only one game, so it won't be enough so I'll see if I can find more and revert back to you.
No offense taken, D, I might sound harsh, but only because I share your distaste of misinformation (and Lonnie specifically is a topic of interest to me, because I've been following him enough to know that 90% of what gets spewed out here about him is BS). Thanks for linking another game! They're really hard to find now (I didn't find any games that had his condensed, good and bad, plays, the "better" but painstaking way, as you linked, would be to look up which games he played for Miami, then just watch the full game if they were uploaded to YT.... But I don't really have the time or will for that).
To be honest, I'm mostly talking about his overpassing tendencies. I can freely say he's always had trouble with keeping engaged when he didn't have the ball (similar to Luka in this regard), which hasn't changed a lot; but I can say I NEVER saw him play like he does now, driving to the rim without purpose or will to shoot, making bad passes at the last second, and even refusing to take shots when passed at the 3pt line, instead going pumpfake -> dribble -> pass out again. That was NOT how he played - in fact, most people had the opposite opinion of his game pre-draft, that he was taking all the shots to himself! Ironic.
That's why I say it's not all on Lonnie. He hasn't progressed in some of his weaknesses, sure - but he's incorporated new holes into his game, which weren't there before, and that's frankly worrisome. I have a far worse expectation of his future as a prospect now, than I did before the start of this season, and it's been a marked difference to me.
Hey Bill! Nice work on the signature as always, my guy. Also, lol at me turning this into a Lonnie thread. Sorry, y'all, I'm just a passionate guy
Lonnie wasn't really a good defender in college, from what I recall, tbh. At the start of the video I posted, he had a steal that's characteristic of how he played defense - he leveraged his quickness, high energy and athleticism into steals and deflections, but he lacked the high-IQ defense that someone like Vassell has, of anticipating offenses and reading passing lanes. That's always been a hole in his game on both sides, and it's still there. The difference, and an obvious one for many prospects, was that he was much better able to keep up with college players due to his natural gifts, whereas speedy NBA guards and bullish wings and bigmen give him much more trouble now.
Ultimately though, it's always been a confidence thing for him - which is why I'm so sad at the approach Pop took towards developing him. It's NOT a coincidence that he played some of his best defense (alongside, by far, his best offense) in that Rockets game, not only keeping up with Harden but also getting deflections/steals that e turned into dunks on the other end. When he feels like he belongs, it's game over - the Spurs just aren't fostering that in him. Or aren't succeeding in doing so. It's also no coincidence that he dropped almost 50 points with DeRozan out. I was expecting our last game to be more of the same, but sadly he was disappointing. And yeah, if he doesn't find consistency, I can totally see the coaching staff not being able to justify starting him with his subpar defense and inconsistent offense. At this point, it's pretty clear that White or Vassell are both much better contributors at starting SG.
I'm keeping up the hopes until next off-season. Posters here already want to trade him, but PATFO is all about patience and the long-run, so I doubt they even think about it before they truly see what third year Lonnie can bring. Get him a full, healthy off-season of work, time to watch film and work on his game, and then see how he plays. If he picks it up, he's easily retained (though I think he'd be an RFA if they don't extend him before the start of the season, someone correct me on this...). If not, I actually see him traded by next deadline. Spurs might want to get some ROI on the draft pick, and at least try and get a middle-first round pick out of him.
I think if he will put it all together, it will be next season. 4th NBA season is usually were you see the big leaps. A lot of his issues are easily fixable, like finishing through contact, creating space for midrange pull ups and better positioning on defense. I think he's just overthinking it out there and that's a thing that Popovich has been guilty of a lot of times. Even Aldridge was overthinking stuff out there when he first got here
We're cut from the same cloth... I share your distaste of misinformation as well.
I self-taught myself how to edit youtube videos, finally. No more of those janky gifs I posted before.
I went through through the entire game of the video I shared with you earlier and edited that video to show ALL possessions by Lonnie on offense where he touches the ball at any time.
Here is the result:
I see a lot of frustrating dribble hand-offs, similar to what we see today. However like I said earlier, this is only one game. I will do my part to continue my research of Lonnie.
Last edited by Dejounte; 02-27-2021 at 04:55 PM.
Nice work here Dejounte. Is he playing tonight?
He needs love and care more than the rest of the team.
Pop knows it. Patience is key in his case.
Yes, he's playing
Here's another video showing every possession where Lonnie touches the ball, Sugus .
He was benched for a significantly long time in the first half. Maybe it was because he was playing passive? I don't know the story.
Slightly more activity attacking the basket, still does the dribble hand off a lot, still looks like he prefers to dribble two steps inside the perimeter then dribble out or pull-up midrange J.
Let me find more.
In my opinion you’re 100% correct but most folks on here like blaming Pop for a myriad of stuff. Don’t get me wrong he has done a ton of boneheaded things but ing up Lonnie isn’t one of them.
that write up posted about him coming into the draft is still pretty close to being true to what he is now. SMH.
I’m one of the folks coming into the season who really believed he would be way better and touted him as a guy with star potential. It makes me sad to see he just hasn’t figured stuff out yet.
Another thing to point out is when he is forced to go left or finish with his left hand he tends to go for the pass. He almost did it this game and the most glaring one in the OKC game. Going to his left is a weakness you might have evaluated as losing the scorer's mentality.
Yo, D, amazing work! How long did this take you? I really appreciate the time taken - and at the same time, I feel kind of sorry imagining you, tiresomely editing the video just to make the point. You don't have to do this, I'll look for some full game myself, don'tcha worry.
My main takeaway from this video is that Lonnie hasn't improved in some aspects since his college days (as you say, passing the ball off when bringing it up, then disappearing the entire possession, sinking into the weakside; or just not taking it upon himself to initiate offense or break his defender off the dribble). But also that, just as I'd thought, I didn't see once the move that has now become my pet-peeve out of Modern Lonnie (hereby ML, as opposed to Old Lonnie), that is, the drive -> jump -> then try to make a pass, or even drive -> get by your defender -> try to pass it out. Those are the moves I'm thinking of when I say "new holes" in ML's game, and watching his college games again just furthers that point.
After thinking on it a little - could these moves be one of your "DeMar teaching the youngings" moves, only it's backfiring? I realized that the only other player who makes that drive&dish move consistently, is DeRozan, only he has the MUCH better passing, court awareness, and quick-thinking skills and makes like 90% of those high-risk passes without issue. It looks like Lonnie's taken it upon himself to be a DD-lite kinda player, and it's not working well at all. Or something like that...
Anyways, thanks again for taking the effort, I appreciate it.
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