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  1. #3751
    The Great Eight Ocotillo's Avatar
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    I am thinking I want smart, high BBIQ and less super athlete with potential. Super athlete is likely to spend a year or two toiling in Austin and while the team has a good track record of drafting and developing guys, it feels like we are getting to the point where some of our "young players" are getting close to, if not aging out, at least entering the stage of their playing career where they now the veteran players.

    I understand the desire for the potential of a guy like Kai Jones but by the time he is ready, DWhite will be knocking on the door of turning 30.
    Last edited by Ocotillo; 07-24-2021 at 09:04 AM. Reason: typo, of course

  2. #3752
    Believe.
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    I know we are all going a bit crazy over who our pick will be at 12 and even a little bit for our 2nd round pick. Any thoughts on players who might go undrafted but could be prospects for our G-league team ? Every year there are a few that make it through the G-league and beat out drafted players even some with guaranteed contracts.

  3. #3753
    Veteran The Truth #6's Avatar
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    I think there are three basic paths to being a star. A) A player is a star in college/overseas and comes in still being a star; B) A player comes in raw and ends up booming into a star; C) A player comes in with a well-defined niche and is thought of as a role-player but then develops into a star. We should all be able to see that the most likely path is A). That's the reason why so many stars come from top picks. Not every A) is a top pick. Lillard, Mitc and potentially Haliburton are examples of guys drafted out of the top-five picks who end up just continuing on. The disagreement is that I think a lot of fans believe that B) is significantly more common than C), to the point that the downside of trying for B) and missing against the downside of missing C) and getting a role-player is somehow smaller than the upside difference. To put it another way, those folks seem to believe that having a bigger gap between a player's floor and their ceiling is the same as having a higher ceiling. I don't actually agree with this assumption. Very few raw players develop into stars, and even though guys in C) don't usually become top-five players, top-five players are usually guys in A) anyway, and once you get down to like third-tier stars you end up seeing a higher percentage of guys in C) than in B) anyway.

    As I've said before development isn't actually something than can be summed up in a simple graph. Like you can't say, "In X years, this player has some percentage chance of being good, and that's worth passing up on this other player who doesn't have a chance to be that good." It's not just about how good you can end up being. It's how effective a player will be at various points in time, how confident a staff can be at adding certain skills, how useful the player will be over the life of their time with the club, and maybe an overlooked fact -- how valuable will this player be on the trade market at various points of time. A guy from B) might be more valuable on the trade market for the first couple of years, but guys in C) will end up being really useful in collecting future assets since they're coveted by both contenders and mediocre teams. Guys in B) are at best players who might help get a star from a rebuilding team, provided they're developing well enough to not show a bust downside yet.

    As I've also said before, the idea that the Spurs need to find a way to draft a franchise talent as their primary goal is antiquated. Not only are most stars acquired by trade nowadays, but guys on bad or even meh teams will ask out much more frequently. You can't draft a star and then build a team around him, because stars are usually too impatient for that. You have to basically be able to build a le contending team within two or three years of a star emerging. The idea of drafting a KD/RW/JH trio and keeping them together for a decade just won't happen anymore. It didn't even happen eight years ago or whenever the Thunder traded Harden, and the NBA wasn't where it is now. A no, it's not "Still the best way for a small-market team to build". The strategy is just more free-agent oriented for large-market teams. Trading is critical to both.

    I think I'm spinning off a bit. The point I'm basically making is that the Spurs shouldn't worry about looking for a franchise player, especially if they're doing that by looking at raw guys with "upside" over established players with a clear NBA floor. If you draft a bunch of Brogdon's, you can make the moves to become a dark-horse than if you draft a bunch of raw, skinny 18-year-olds. You just have to be willing to let those Brogdon's go to get better pieces rather than coveting them or comparing them to stars.
    While I agree with you in a general sense, this seems to eliminate any options for the Spurs to move forward once we get out of a vacuum and recognize the Spurs are a small market team where stars more likely want to leave then stay here. Sure, you can't just draft a star, yet teams still do and build around them through trade and free agency. I mean, I agree there is not a single way to succeed, but for a small market team, the draft is crucial because top free agents won't even give SA a meeting, and stars have clout and can demand where they go, more or less, and San Antonio is never going to be that destination.

    So, let's say you're right. What's the next move? Do nothing?

    Or perhaps I'm not understanding you correctly.

  4. #3754
    Veteran The Truth #6's Avatar
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    I know we are all going a bit crazy over who our pick will be at 12 and even a little bit for our 2nd round pick. Any thoughts on players who might go undrafted but could be prospects for our G-league team ? Every year there are a few that make it through the G-league and beat out drafted players even some with guaranteed contracts.
    Yves Pons.

    Jherico Sims.

    Mathew Hurt.

    Those are a few that come to mind. Highly athletic and almost zero skills. Or highly skilled and have 13.5% body fat and move like a glacier. So to speak.

  5. #3755
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    A player that doesn't get mentioned here much that I'm warming up to a little bit in situational scenarios is Luka Garza. I'm specifically speaking of a 2nd round selection. He's crafty around the basket and his improving outside shot makes him more playable. He has a chance to be a Brook Lopez archetype on offense as a ceiling and a Jalil Okafor as a floor. That's not awful as a 2nd round selection. Should the Spurs select him? Probably not as currently constructed but, if Poeltl gets moved at the draft and we end up with a starting stretch 5 then he'd make more sense coming off the bench. Also a longer term fit next to Kai Jones could be interesting if Kai can develop into a high level rim protecting stretch 4.

  6. #3756
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    While I agree with you in a general sense, this seems to eliminate any options for the Spurs to move forward once we get out of a vacuum and recognize the Spurs are a small market team where stars more likely want to leave then stay here. Sure, you can't just draft a star, yet teams still do and build around them through trade and free agency. I mean, I agree there is not a single way to succeed, but for a small market team, the draft is crucial because top free agents won't even give SA a meeting, and stars have clout and can demand where they go, more or less, and San Antonio is never going to be that destination.

    So, let's say you're right. What's the next move? Do nothing?

    Or perhaps I'm not understanding you correctly.
    I've mentioned this before, but in my opinion, the most straight-forward way to become a contender is to draft a star, sign a star and then trade for a star. The issue is that most people get hung up on the belief that they need to draft a franchise player, then either draft or otherwise acquire the other stars. The part you highlighted was basically saying that you can't sell out to get a franchise player, because you'll be so bereft of talent that that player will want to leave. Rather, it would be better to draft a second banana, sign a third and then trade for a first-banana.

    This doesn't mean you pass up on franchise players if one falls to you. In the context of my whole post, what it means is you need to worry about drafting tradeable pieces rather than taking risks on stars all the time, because ultimately you're going to have to be able to acquire one or more stars from outside the organization, and a bunch of busts that had a 10-percent chance of becoming unicorns aren't really good enough for that purpose. In terms of A), B) and C), it doesn't mean you don't take A) guys when they're there. It means you should value C) guys more since they'll be useful to get a star if they don't develop into a star themselves.

    To borrow the common baseball analogy, many of the historical high-scoring teams didn't get there by just hitting a ton of homeruns. They got there by being able to get on base and advance through hits, sac-flies and stolen bases. The Rangers from the WS runs are an example of how that looks. Anyways, in the Spurs case, getting solid-C assets and being willing to move them to get B and then A assets is critical to being able to spec into a contender while avoiding tanking. That's why they have to be willing to move guys like Murray and not cling to them because "He's youngish and not horrible, so we have to keep him". DJM, White and hopefully Johnson were really good picks for their position, but then you have to be willing to trade for better picks, out-draft that higher position, develop them, trade them for higher picks and grab those A) players. Otherwise, you end up getting cap-locked into mediocre players that you're hesitant to upgrade over because you've convinced yourself they are core players.

    So a possible plan right now: Bank on White being the third banana; sign Collins; make a trade for a guy who fits with them but his hopefully better than them. Another: Trade for Sabonis; sign a guy like Trent with the cap space; hope you kept enough value to make an all-in trade on a star wing. A third: Trade Murray for draft value; sign Collins or another PF if a good one doesn't fall in the draft; develop around that move balanced core while keeping a max slot open for 2022; In 2022, hope you already have one star before signing and trading for the others.

    What you don't do: Draft a one-in-a-million guy because he kinda looks like Giannis at 18 or whatever; get rid of any decent vet to give minutes to young players; hang onto decent ones with your cap space; hope you get a high pick to take a shot the next year. That's the kind of path a lot of posters seem to think the Spurs HAVE to take because they aren't a free-agent destination. It's antiquated. You don't have to worry about signing stars if you're going to trade for them, and the thing that attracts free agents the most is playing with other stars. The thing that repels them the most is being a ty team in a small market.

  7. #3757
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    Yves Pons.

    Jherico Sims.

    Mathew Hurt.

    Those are a few that come to mind. Highly athletic and almost zero skills. Or highly skilled and have 13.5% body fat and move like a glacier. So to speak.
    doubt that hurt wont be drafted. Hes a great shooter PF. Thats should be enough for a 2nd round

  8. #3758
    Wolf Ruvinskis tonight...you's Avatar
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    Has it though? Milutinov is only 26, roughly the same age Tiago was when he joined our team.
    Good point. I take it back. You're right.

  9. #3759
    Veteran The Truth #6's Avatar
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    I've mentioned this before, but in my opinion, the most straight-forward way to become a contender is to draft a star, sign a star and then trade for a star. The issue is that most people get hung up on the belief that they need to draft a franchise player, then either draft or otherwise acquire the other stars. The part you highlighted was basically saying that you can't sell out to get a franchise player, because you'll be so bereft of talent that that player will want to leave. Rather, it would be better to draft a second banana, sign a third and then trade for a first-banana.

    This doesn't mean you pass up on franchise players if one falls to you. In the context of my whole post, what it means is you need to worry about drafting tradeable pieces rather than taking risks on stars all the time, because ultimately you're going to have to be able to acquire one or more stars from outside the organization, and a bunch of busts that had a 10-percent chance of becoming unicorns aren't really good enough for that purpose. In terms of A), B) and C), it doesn't mean you don't take A) guys when they're there. It means you should value C) guys more since they'll be useful to get a star if they don't develop into a star themselves.

    To borrow the common baseball analogy, many of the historical high-scoring teams didn't get there by just hitting a ton of homeruns. They got there by being able to get on base and advance through hits, sac-flies and stolen bases. The Rangers from the WS runs are an example of how that looks. Anyways, in the Spurs case, getting solid-C assets and being willing to move them to get B and then A assets is critical to being able to spec into a contender while avoiding tanking. That's why they have to be willing to move guys like Murray and not cling to them because "He's youngish and not horrible, so we have to keep him". DJM, White and hopefully Johnson were really good picks for their position, but then you have to be willing to trade for better picks, out-draft that higher position, develop them, trade them for higher picks and grab those A) players. Otherwise, you end up getting cap-locked into mediocre players that you're hesitant to upgrade over because you've convinced yourself they are core players.

    So a possible plan right now: Bank on White being the third banana; sign Collins; make a trade for a guy who fits with them but his hopefully better than them. Another: Trade for Sabonis; sign a guy like Trent with the cap space; hope you kept enough value to make an all-in trade on a star wing. A third: Trade Murray for draft value; sign Collins or another PF if a good one doesn't fall in the draft; develop around that move balanced core while keeping a max slot open for 2022; In 2022, hope you already have one star before signing and trading for the others.

    What you don't do: Draft a one-in-a-million guy because he kinda looks like Giannis at 18 or whatever; get rid of any decent vet to give minutes to young players; hang onto decent ones with your cap space; hope you get a high pick to take a shot the next year. That's the kind of path a lot of posters seem to think the Spurs HAVE to take because they aren't a free-agent destination. It's antiquated. You don't have to worry about signing stars if you're going to trade for them, and the thing that attracts free agents the most is playing with other stars. The thing that repels them the most is being a ty team in a small market.

    Oh, ok. Cool.

  10. #3760
    Veteran The Truth #6's Avatar
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    doubt that hurt wont be drafted. Hes a great shooter PF. Thats should be enough for a 2nd round
    Yeah, he easily could. I’m highlighting guys that would be great to target and are borderline late 2nd round picks.

  11. #3761
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Ziaire Williams in the top 10 feels a bit crazy, but teams draft on tools and 'upside' or the redundant 'upside potential' and he might get a pass for Sanford having an awful year due to Covid and him losing a loved one during. Fact is, no one in the mid- to late-lottery is convincing and guys could slide up that a team convinces itself is great. I've seen Cameron Thomas start becoming a lottery pick, too.

    So it feels weird becaue his production was pretty terrible, but he's a better pick than Kuminga, for example.

  12. #3762
    Veteran ace3g's Avatar
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  13. #3763
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    "As a young guy, that be a great place to go and really build a strong foundation for the rest of my career," said Moody.

    aka I want the Spurs to develop me into a good player then I can leave for greener pastures.

  14. #3764
    Spurs Sage Russ's Avatar
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    "As a young guy, that be a great place to go and really build a strong foundation for the rest of my career," said Moody.

    aka I want the Spurs to develop me into a good player then I can leave for greener pastures.
    Moody has way too little upside to be talking that way.

  15. #3765
    Veteran SpursDynasty85's Avatar
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    10559880[/URL]]Moody has way too little upside to be talking that way.
    3&D guys with his measurements make a ton of money as long as they play smart.

  16. #3766
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    Draft is going to be bananas...

    Both prospects rumored to have completed two workouts with the same team:

    Williams - Orlando
    Sengun - Charlotte.



    I wouldn't use a lottery pick on Ziaire Williams. There's a ton of wiggle room for interpreting advanced stats with college players-- SOS, age, coaching approaches, etc-- but Ziaire has by far the worst of any prospect. As far as I can see he's the only one with upside down metrics-- an ORtg of 86.3 and a DRtg of 99.2, which is pretty bad. For comparison, some analysts have expressed concern that Cade Cunningham's metrics are less impressive than expected and he's at 106.4/97, while someone like Franz Wagner is at 121.5/92.3. These numbers aren't foolproof by any means, and tend to over-reward bigs, but it takes a lot of bad play to have numbers that incredibly poor.
    Last edited by R. DeMurre; 07-24-2021 at 03:15 PM.

  17. #3767
    Spurs Sage Russ's Avatar
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    3&D guys with his [Moody's] measurements make a ton of money as long as they play smart.
    You're right, but they need to go to a team ready for their skills. The Spurs aren't at that point.

    Look at Bowen -- he was a throwaway in the eyes of his undeveloped Miami team.

    But when he got to the Spurs his 3&D skills were critical.

  18. #3768
    Believe. Degoat's Avatar
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    Sooo just thinking out loud here but the guys the spurs haven’t met with, that are in our range are Franz Wagner, Jalen Johnson, Davion Mitc , James Bouknight, and Josh Giddey. Think any of those guys are the spurs targets and there trying to keep quiet about there interest on one of them?

  19. #3769
    Veteran SpursDynasty85's Avatar
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    10559897[/URL]]Sooo just thinking out loud here but the guys the spurs haven’t met with, that are in our range are Franz Wagner, Jalen Johnson, Davion Mitc , James Bouknight, and Josh Giddey. Think any of those guys are the spurs targets and there trying to keep quiet about there interest on one of them?
    Giddey would make the most sense because of position and Patty’s Australia connections.

  20. #3770
    Veteran SpursDynasty85's Avatar
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    10559889[/URL]]You're right, but they need to go to a team ready for their skills. The Spurs aren't at that point.

    Look at Bowen -- he was a throwaway in the eyes of his undeveloped Miami team.

    But when he got to the Spurs his 3&D skills were critical.
    In a way yes but the need for the position has grown a lot since Bowen. Pretty much any team looking to make the playoffs are going to need a 3&D wing like him. If he can play solid as a small ball PF, then his need increases even more. His athleticism definitely limits his upside but his floor looks really good.

  21. #3771
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Yeah, the idea that the team doesn't need a three-and-D player is absurd. They need at least one, if not two. What they don't need is a guy who needs the ball in their hands to volume-score.

  22. #3772
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Sooo just thinking out loud here but the guys the spurs havenít met with, that are in our range are Franz Wagner, Jalen Johnson, Davion Mitc , James Bouknight, and Josh Giddey. Think any of those guys are the spurs targets and there trying to keep quiet about there interest on one of them?
    Franz Wagner -- Yes, definitely. Strange they haven't had him in, if that's true? Maybe they see too much overlap with Samanac?
    Jalen Johnson -- I don't think in a million years the Spurs would consider him. I'd be absolutely stunned if they talked about him for more than two minutes.
    Davion Mitc -- He does seem like a Spurs-type player, but the team has tons of guards, plus he's less of a project due to his age.
    James Bouknight -- I don't see a cultural fit. He seems more of a freelancer on offense and would do better in a different system.
    Josh Giddey -- Not many teams have worked him out, so that's not necessarily a sign. I do feel like they're considering him, but who knows.

  23. #3773
    Believe. Kurik's Avatar
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    Moody has way too little upside to be talking that way.
    Heís barely 19 and led an unexpected elite 8 team in scoring, I think itís way too early to say he has limited upside. Even if he just becomes a 3&D player, a good one seems to be hard for the Spurs to get.

  24. #3774
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    Franz Wagner -- Yes, definitely. Strange they haven't had him in, if that's true? Maybe they see too much overlap with Samanac?
    Jalen Johnson -- I don't think in a million years the Spurs would consider him. I'd be absolutely stunned if they talked about him for more than two minutes.
    Davion Mitc -- He does seem like a Spurs-type player, but the team has tons of guards, plus he's less of a project due to his age.
    James Bouknight -- I don't see a cultural fit. He seems more of a freelancer on offense and would do better in a different system.
    Josh Giddey -- Not many teams have worked him out, so that's not necessarily a sign. I do feel like they're considering him, but who knows.
    +1

    For Giddey he did not workout for any team imo ? he had some interviews or exchanges with some teams but nothing else as he was with the Aussie team. Same thing for Garuba.

  25. #3775
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