I watched a lot of Texas' games this year, and from the first game, Kai Jones jumped off the screen as the guy I wanted the Spurs to draft--this was before mock drafts caught on, and Greg Brown was still seen to be the Longhorn most likely to be a lotto pick.
His ceiling is one of the bigger mysteries of this draft class. In theory, it's incredibly high.
He started playing organized basketball at 15. He has a combination of length and athleticism that can't be taught and his shot mechanics are pretty good (room for improvement but not in need of a complete remodel). He has good 3pt range for his size. Being long and athletic, he's almost an ideal modern big if he can put it all together. Rim running and 3pt shooting on offense, defender who can switch on guards in the P&R. Dude has whipped out some impressive Eurosteps on drives to the bucket, too. He flashes some special, special stuff.
The big thing with Kai is the stuff that takes time to develop, and having started playing basketball as late as he did, it makes sense. Lacks refinement in the post-up game. Makes some boneheaded decisions on both sides of the ball.
Kai improved a TON from his freshman year to sop re season, which is why he rocketed up draft boards. Scouts tuned in to watch potential one-and-done Greg Brown and Kai Jones was the guy they ended up falling in love with. The dude simply jumps off the screen. You have to like to see that year-to-year improvement, and wonder if it will continue. He's a ball of clay for a coaching staff to develop, but has all star potential.
You never know with some of these guys who start playing basketball late. If they have the mentality and work-ethic to be great, they can become stars. I'm not by any means suggesting Kai has a Giannis level ceiling, but they are similar in terms of guys who started late, but have size/athletic ability and an unrefined but promising set of skills.
I'd be thrilled if we drafted Kai--his ceiling is EXACTLY what our glut of young guards need to be paired with--but I also know he's a major boom/bust project.