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  1. #26
    Believe. 3&D_TBH's Avatar
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    Great thread. Much appreciated.

  2. #27
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    Spurs are going to lose a lot of these games in 2nd half. I think they could get a food losing streak going and get into the lottery.

  3. #28
    #21 timtonymanu's Avatar
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    Way overdue to continue the losing streak

  4. #29
    Veteran spurs10's Avatar
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    Good work here. We just went 3-7 and I think that's what we'll do the next 10 games. Should be about 27-30 going into the last 15.

  5. #30
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    This sour team may just end up in the lottery after all. Its still going to take some work though

  6. #31
    I want some NASTY! SpurPadre's Avatar
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    We're now at the 18th pick and only 3.5 games back from 10th pick.

  7. #32
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    I give them 6-8 wins the rest of the season. Maybe 10 if Phoenix, Milwaukee or Brooklyn have nothing to play for at the end.

  8. #33
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

    Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

    Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

    You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

    Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

    This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?
    Last edited by PrimeMinister; 04-04-2021 at 09:51 AM.

  9. #34
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

    0-1, with 25 games remaining.

    With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

    The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

    We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.

  10. #35
    Dejounte, White & THE IV Truth4sale$'s Avatar
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    If Pop continues to sit key players to close out games, or
    The spurs let other guards go off we will hit the magic number for a top 10 pick.

  11. #36
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    I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

    Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

    Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

    You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

    Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

    This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?
    Agree with the DeRozan take, but it's the same offensive issues with Murray and unlike the former, he doesn't provide plus play making for his position and can't get to the line either.

    He puts very little pressure on opposing defenses, but as long as he gets his precious mid-high teens points, him and many on this board seem to think job well done.

  12. #37
    Believe.
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    vs Cavs
    @ Nuggets
    @ Nuggets
    @ Mavs
    @ Magic (b2b)
    @ Raptors
    vs Blazers
    @ Suns (b2b)
    @ Pacers
    vs Heat
    vs Pistons (b2b)
    @ Pels
    @ Wizards
    @ Heat
    @ Boston
    vs Sixers
    @ Jazz
    @ Jazz
    @ Kings
    @ Blazers (b2b)
    vs Bucks
    @ Nets
    @ Knicks (b2b)
    vs Suns
    vs Suns (b2b)

    Tomorrow's game is probably the easiest one for the rest of the season.
    Two other weakest games are both on b2b, Magic and Pistons.

    There's not a single other game where we're the clear favorites. Noone other than those 3 teams is tanking.
    Every home game except the Cavs and Pistons is against teams with a better record. Including two easier games, 4-4 at best, if that. Probably 2-6.
    On the road? Magic, Raptors, Pacers, Pels, Wizards, Boston, Kings, Knicks should be winnable, but we're not the favorites. Which means we'll probably get like 2 or 3. 4-4 in those is best case scenario.

    That leaves us with 9 more or less guaranteed Ls. Maybe we get 1 of those. 2 at best.

    I can't see this team winning 10 more games and that would be the best case scenario. Anywhere between 5-20 and 8-17 seems realistic.

  13. #38
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    Agree with the DeRozan take, but it's the same offensive issues with Murray and unlike the former, he doesn't provide plus play making for his position and can't get to the line either.

    He puts very little pressure on opposing defenses, but as long as he gets his precious mid-high teens points, him and many on this board seem to think job well done.
    Murray I’m not throwing the book at because he’s just simply not a finished product and is a product at this moment of the roster and line ups he plays in. Murray with the right team of defenders and shooters around him can be deadly and brings 2 way value that Demar never has and never will bring. He’s shown improvement with his shooting and I think within a few years or even as soon as next year could be a 35%+ type shooter on normal volume.

    Demar is who he is. He’s not shooting 3s- that fantasy is gone. He’s not a defender. He’s a good 2 point scorer that can break down a defender in isolation but has immense limitations in his offensive arsenal that are becoming more suffocating as the league moves to a more pace and space driven style.

    Murray as a point guard can assimilate and be effective leading a pace and space team. His improvement from last year speaks for itself. Demar can’t and won’t and also happens to be a bryn forbes caliber defender and is getting worse.

  14. #39
    Believe.
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    I think the one thing the premise of the thread didn’t account for was the nature of the schedule along with the strength of opponent. Early season spurs on normal rest I could see giving a fight to a tier 1 team- late season spurs on no or little rest is getting run off the floor by the third.

    Also the spurs record against teams +.500 has been for some time now- you can almost chalk up a game against a playoff team as a loss at this point.

    Spurs starting unit by net rating has been treading water all year. Demar derozan is one of the most negative players in basketball by +/- per 100 possessions. It’s 4 on 5 defensively and 4 on 5 offensively when he doesn’t have the ball.

    You can’t run a motion offense around him because teams can play off of him and pack the paint so cutting and dump off passes at the rim don’t work. So you force your offense into trading isos. But Demar doesn’t command any attention off the ball with his lack of catch and shoot game. So when anyone but Demar has the ball you have what amounts to a free safety to help off Demar and cheat into driving lanes. Notably Keldon is impacted most by this- as soon as he touches the ball, defenders are cheating into driving lanes usually off derozan to stop his drive, or the help has already been brought into the paint by Demar and there’s nowhere for Keldon to go.

    Dejounte is a better true passer in the half court. Derrick has more range and can give the defense a different look as a ball handler with his shooting beyond the arc. Derozan just... dribbles into a 15 footer and pump fakes for 10 seconds and sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn’t. Off ball you have to give him space - cutting is a no fly zone because he largely inhabits the paint and you don’t want to draw a help defender in. So when Demar has the ball everyone stands around and waits for a kick out. It’s just not an offense that wins basketball games and Demar derozan has proved that with more than a decades worth of evidence.

    This spurs team is going to SUCK down the stretch. Absolutely SUCK. And Demar might get his 20 points on seemingly decent efficiency- but at what cost, reader? At what cost?
    You keep saying this but when a i look at it Keldon and Lonnie are lower and nowhere close to the most negative. Are you referring to another stat?

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/tr...mID=1610612759

  15. #40
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    Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

    0-1, with 25 games remaining.

    With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

    The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

    We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.
    Looking at the schedule I'd guess we go 7 and 18... but I'll officially guess 9-16 because a couple of teams that should beat us will probably be resting guys late in the season.

  16. #41
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    You keep saying this but when a i look at it Keldon and Lonnie are lower and nowhere close to the most negative. Are you referring to another stat?

    https://www.nba.com/stats/players/tr...mID=1610612759
    Good catch- the stat I was pulling from mentally is ESPN’s RPM stat of which Demar is ranked in the 300s at -2.23

    essentially plus minus adjusted with net differential factored in.

  17. #42
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    Murray I’m not throwing the book at because he’s just simply not a finished product and is a product at this moment of the roster and line ups he plays in. Murray with the right team of defenders and shooters around him can be deadly and brings 2 way value that Demar never has and never will bring. He’s shown improvement with his shooting and I think within a few years or even as soon as next year could be a 35%+ type shooter on normal volume.

    Demar is who he is. He’s not shooting 3s- that fantasy is gone. He’s not a defender. He’s a good 2 point scorer that can break down a defender in isolation but has immense limitations in his offensive arsenal that are becoming more suffocating as the league moves to a more pace and space driven style.

    Murray as a point guard can assimilate and be effective leading a pace and space team. His improvement from last year speaks for itself. Demar can’t and won’t and also happens to be a bryn forbes caliber defender and is getting worse.
    Murray's unfortunately taken after DeRozan in his obsession with pull up mid rangers and aversion to 3's (similar rate and worse % than last season) and as much as DeRozan hampers their spacing and tanks their defense, he also shields them from getting exposed for not having another primary scorer/shot creator.

    Only the recently started re-building Pistons and Magic have worse options under contract beyond this season.

  18. #43
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    Murray's unfortunately taken after DeRozan in his obsession with pull up mid rangers and aversion to 3's (similar rate and worse % than last season) and as much as DeRozan hampers their spacing and tanks their defense, he also shields them from getting exposed for not having another primary scorer/shot creator.

    Only the recently started re-building Pistons and Magic have worse options under contract beyond this season.
    More to shooting than 3 point shooting and he has shown improvement in his ability to find shots from the mid range and hit them. I don’t know what else to say there- his attempts from 16 feet are substantially up and his efficiency in the lane but outside the restricted area is much improved from last year. Big agree dejounte needs to find the rack more instead of settling though.

    his 3 point rate is the same because his shot is still a work in progress and it’s not a primary point of focus of his game at this time. That doesn’t mean it never will be or he can’t improve though and the improvement he has shown as a shooter in general give some hope in that area.

    He’s a 2 way guard that can give you 15 points on any given night at 24 years old. He’s not a perfect player but he’s far from a finished product, obviously.

    Put it this way: if I go to a restaurant and ordered a steak and out came a broiled piece of leather- I don’t ask the bus boy what the happened or rip my waiter and tell them it’s unacceptable. I stop ordering food cooked by that chef. Demar derozan is the chef and pointing fingers at dejounte or any number of young players is... dumb.
    Last edited by PrimeMinister; 04-04-2021 at 11:28 AM.

  19. #44
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Pipedream of signing Jrue Holiday is over

  20. #45
    Believe.
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    The team is missing a young franchise talent, the young guys we have are certainly good complimentary pieces but I don’t think they are the type of talent to take a team to the next level. It’s unfortunate because any one of Cunningham, Suggs or Mobley would’ve been terrific gets and it just doesn’t seem likely we land any of them.

  21. #46
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    The greatest coach/leader in NBA history (lol) cannot be that if he administers his franchise to the current state that is?

  22. #47
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    Good post OP...even if it makes me sad that these days we are counting Magic Numbers for draft picks instead of trying to make the playoffs or get the 1st seed.

  23. #48
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    Spurs' play of late definitely hasn't been encouraging.

    0-1, with 25 games remaining.

    With that being said, winning only six games out of those 25 still doesn't seem likely to me. So a top 8 pick without winning the lottery ball feels impossible at this point. The team would have to flat out quit in order for that to happen. They've been in it for the most part for these terrible losses. If they had been blowouts, I would be more convinced.

    The point about the condensed schedule does play a factor.

    We'll see how these remaining games go. I think it's interesting watching players like Rudy, DeMar, Mills get demolished on a consistent basis and still get playing time like they do.
    vs Cavs
    @ Nuggets
    @ Nuggets
    @ Mavs
    @ Magic (b2b)
    @ Raptors
    vs Blazers
    @ Suns (b2b)
    @ Pacers
    vs Heat
    vs Pistons (b2b)
    @ Pels
    @ Wizards
    @ Heat
    @ Boston
    vs Sixers
    @ Jazz
    @ Jazz
    @ Kings
    @ Blazers (b2b)
    vs Bucks
    @ Nets
    @ Knicks (b2b)
    vs Suns
    vs Suns (b2b)

    Tomorrow's game is probably the easiest one for the rest of the season.
    Two other weakest games are both on b2b, Magic and Pistons.

    There's not a single other game where we're the clear favorites. Noone other than those 3 teams is tanking.
    Every home game except the Cavs and Pistons is against teams with a better record. Including two easier games, 4-4 at best, if that. Probably 2-6.
    On the road? Magic, Raptors, Pacers, Pels, Wizards, Boston, Kings, Knicks should be winnable, but we're not the favorites. Which means we'll probably get like 2 or 3. 4-4 in those is best case scenario.

    That leaves us with 9 more or less guaranteed Ls. Maybe we get 1 of those. 2 at best.

    I can't see this team winning 10 more games and that would be the best case scenario. Anywhere between 5-20 and 8-17 seems realistic.
    I also don't think its out of the question for the Spurs to finish worse than 8-17 over the last 25 with possible wins against the Cavs, Magic, Pistons, Wizards, @ Knicks and a couple of other toss-ups.

    The biggest question marks are the Jazz and Suns double-headers and whether the Jazz are comfortably set as the 1 seed and taking their foot off the gas and whether the Suns are playing for the 1 seed or strategic seeding.

    I think its conceivable that they actually fall short of 538's Raptor prediction of 33-39 mark. That could mean the 11th pick.

  24. #49
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    I also don't think its out of the question for the Spurs to finish worse than 8-17 over the last 25 with possible wins against the Cavs, Magic, Pistons, Wizards, @ Knicks and a couple of other toss-ups.

    The biggest question marks are the Jazz and Suns double-headers and whether the Jazz are comfortably set as the 1 seed and taking their foot off the gas and whether the Suns are playing for the 1 seed or strategic seeding.

    I think its conceivable that they actually fall short of 538's Raptor prediction of 33-39 mark. That could mean the 11th pick.
    Weird to cling onto 538's Raptor prediction as if it's some infallible metric and also because I've shown you how it changes week to week. It could literally change again next week, so it wouldn't make sense to say "the Spurs could fall short of their prediction". Which prediction? The one they made two weeks before? Or the week before that?

  25. #50
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    I had a thought that Popovich must be playing the vets on purpose when their performance that game doesn't justify it.

    His thought is if the Spurs keep losing it's better for these vets - Gay, DeRozan, Mills - to be on the court.
    That's a psychological benefit to the young players who won't look at themselves as the reason for the losses.

    That way next year when Gay and DeRozan are gone the young guys won't be affected by this season, be instilled with confidence, and ready to play winning ball.

    The above is assuming Spurs fall out of contention and land a top 10 pick, who'll play a lot in 2022.

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