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  1. #1
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    As of 4/2/21, the Spurs have a 24-22 record.

    If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:



    When using the season WIN%, it's important to note that this has been an irregular season due to COVID.

    Factors that may render the Spurs SEASON WIN% somewhat unreliable:
    -Aldridge being a part of the team for many games
    -The two week COVID break the team had
    -DeMar being gone due to the death of his father


    If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:



    Factors that may render the Spurs L10 WIN% somewhat unreliable:
    -Multiple players out due to COVID
    -Lonnie being out due to a wrist injury
    -Addition of Dieng may balance the roster and improve the WIN% going forward


    Obviously, you cannot predict how the season record based off WIN% alone but it can give us an idea of what to expect. I believe the WIN% for the remaining games for the Spurs will lie somewhere in between .400 to 0.520.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 1st to 5th pick range in the draft lottery:

    The Spurs must not win more than 1 game out of its remaining 26. This is virtually impossible, if we're being realistic.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 6th to 8th pick range in the draft lottery:

    The Spurs must not win more than 3-6 games out of its remaining 26. Three games max to get the 6th pick, six games max to get the 8th pick. This is extremely unlikely.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 9th to 12th pick range in the draft lottery:


    The Spurs must not win more than 7-10 games out of its remaining 26. Seven games max to get the 9th pick, ten games max to get the 12th pick. This is unlikely. This scenario requires a major free fall for the Spurs.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 13th to 14th pick range in the draft lottery:


    The Spurs must not win more than 11-12 games out of its remaining 26. If the last ten games has been any indication of things to come, this scenario is possible.

  2. #2
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.

  3. #3
    Less is More Darius Bieber's Avatar
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    Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.
    Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.

  4. #4
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.


    538's RAPTOR projections also had the Spurs with the 17th worst record on March 1:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210302...a-predictions/

    17th worst record on March 9:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210309...a-predictions/

    17th worst record on March 18th:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210318...a-predictions/

    Reference:
    https://web.archive.org/web/*/https:...a-predictions/

    In order to have a 33-39 record, the Spurs would have to lose two games for every one game they win. Both season and last 10 trends don't show that as a likely possibility. It's a major drop off.

  5. #5
    The Timeless One Leetonidas's Avatar
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    Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.
    Eh, one thing I've realized after watching NBA ball for 20 years is that college scouting is pretty hit or miss. Last year's draft was supposed to be one of the worst ever yet it gave us some pretty exciting top end rookies and a lot of solid rookies making meaningful contributions to their teams already. I've been hearing all year the 2021 draft is supposed to be loaded. Either way I trust the Spurs ability to draft more than any other aspect of the org at this point

  6. #6
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    I put 0 stock into the pundit evaluations of whether a draft is “weak” “strong” or any other signifiers to that effect

    It’s the sports equivalent of tarot card readings or astrology.

    There’s some really interesting players available throughout the first round. Good length and versatility at positions of need for the spurs. Pundits and scouts miss contributors and good nba players every single year.

  7. #7
    Veteran rjv's Avatar
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    I put 0 stock into the pundit evaluations of whether a draft is “weak” “strong” or any other signifiers to that effect

    It’s the sports equivalent of tarot card readings or astrology.

    There’s some really interesting players available throughout the first round. Good length and versatility at positions of need for the spurs. Pundits and scouts miss contributors and good nba players every single year.
    agree. and while it's always great to get that superstar, the draft is more about being able to find someone that fits a need. ideally, it's a player that can contribute right away.

  8. #8
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Good stuff. The takeaway for me is it's too late for a proper tank so you might as well root for them to win, tbh
    Last edited by timvp; 04-02-2021 at 11:42 AM.

  9. #9
    Believe.
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    Excellent thread idea. To be clear, if we loss the play in game(s) our pick is higher. I’m wondering what that difference will be? Are we talking about the difference between getting pick #20 if we make the playoffs vs pick #16??

  10. #10
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    538's RAPTOR projections also had the Spurs with the 17th worst record on March 1:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210302...a-predictions/

    17th worst record on March 9:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210309...a-predictions/

    17th worst record on March 18th:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20210318...a-predictions/

    Reference:
    https://web.archive.org/web/*/https:...a-predictions/

    In order to have a 33-39 record, the Spurs would have to lose two games for every one game they win. Both season and last 10 trends don't show that as a likely possibility. It's a major drop off.
    Technically they're outpacing their net rating by two wins. They should be 22-24, the difference is that they're starting to lose close games rather than pulling them out. Going 9-18 is a bit on the worst-case scenario side of things but they could legit lose 7 of their next 10 games and be 27-29. With these games so closely bunched together, there's little time to make adjustments to right the ship, add in fatigue, and they could finish the season in a tailspin.

  11. #11
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    Which kinda sucks, because outside of the Top 5 picks the talent drops off tremendously. It's a very top-heavy draft class.
    I have heard its 5 deep and kinda of a mixed bag. Still, it would probably to have the Spurs picking 11th than in the mid teens. Also would probably discourage them from bringing back DeRozan on a long-term deal after missing the playoffs with him as the best player.

  12. #12
    Veteran spurs1990's Avatar
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    There's always a chance to win the lottery. Spurs had a 21% chance in 1997 and ended up winning the first two raffles.

    And remember they run this for picks 1-4, so Spurs have four shots at getting into the top 4.

    2021 odds for the worst records:
    1-3: 14%
    4th: 12.5%
    5th: 10.5%
    6th: 9%
    7th: 7.5%
    8th: 6%
    9th: 4.5%
    10th: 3%
    11th: 2% (Spurs in 2020)
    12th: 1.3%
    13th: 1.2%
    14th: 0.5%

    Too many other tanking teams for Spurs to get into the top 10 slots. As the Tim says may as well root for the playoffs.

  13. #13
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    Spurs are currently projected to 33-39 according to 538's RAPTOR. That would put them in a 3-way tie for the 11th worst record. Considering they have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining, they might end up with the 11th pick again.
    Pop leads the Spurs to back to back 11th pick. Maybe next year the Spurs will get the 9th pick.

  14. #14
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Technically they're outpacing their net rating by two wins. They should be 22-24, the difference is that they're starting to lose close games rather than pulling them out. Going 9-18 is a bit on the worst-case scenario side of things but they could legit lose 7 of their next 10 games and be 27-29. With these games so closely bunched together, there's little time to make adjustments to right the ship, add in fatigue, and they could finish the season in a tailspin.
    Yeah, I guess it depends on how you look at things. I think it would be easier for me to put money on the Spurs going close to 0.500 the rest of the way than 0.350, but that's just me.

  15. #15
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    In sum,

    A top 10 pick this year (barring a miracle with the lottery ball) is very unlikely to happen. IMO, it's playoffs or 13th/14th pick in the draft.
    Last edited by Dejounte; 04-02-2021 at 01:39 PM.

  16. #16
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    I‘m pretty confident in this team not being able to win 10 of the last 26 tbh

  17. #17
    Formerly Spurs21 KingKev's Avatar
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    In sum,

    A top 10 pick this year (barring a miracle with the lottery ball) is very unlikely to happen. IMO, it's playoffs or 13th/14th pick in the draft.

    Thanks for this. Agree with your conclusion also. I don’t see us making a trade to move up either. Hate to be so pessimistic but I think we should start getting used to picking low to mid teen for the next few years.

  18. #18
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    Dat future doe...

    In summation we are getting a worse player than the 3 minute a game guy we currently have and the 3 game a year guy we drafted the year before.

  19. #19
    Believe.
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    Treadmill aka nba purgatory

  20. #20
    Believe.
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    Yes = Spurs get a top pick - so that Pop can stick DNP's up the rookies ass!

    Yes!

  21. #21
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    My guess is Spurs will be 10 in the West, Imo they will probably have a pick between 15-18

  22. #22
    Veteran
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    As of 4/2/21, the Spurs have a 24-22 record.

    If all non-playoff teams follow their season WIN% for the remaining games:



    When using the season WIN%, it's important to note that this has been an irregular season due to COVID.

    Factors that may render the Spurs SEASON WIN% somewhat unreliable:
    -Aldridge being a part of the team for many games
    -The two week COVID break the team had
    -DeMar being gone due to the death of his father


    If all non-playoff teams follow their WIN% from the Last 10 games for the remaining games:



    Factors that may render the Spurs L10 WIN% somewhat unreliable:
    -Multiple players out due to COVID
    -Lonnie being out due to a wrist injury
    -Addition of Dieng may balance the roster and improve the WIN% going forward


    Obviously, you cannot predict how the season record based off WIN% alone but it can give us an idea of what to expect. I believe the WIN% for the remaining games for the Spurs will lie somewhere in between .400 to 0.520.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 1st to 5th pick range in the draft lottery:

    The Spurs must not win more than 1 game out of its remaining 26. This is virtually impossible, if we're being realistic.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 6th to 8th pick range in the draft lottery:

    The Spurs must not win more than 3-6 games out of its remaining 26. Three games max to get the 6th pick, six games max to get the 8th pick. This is extremely unlikely.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 9th to 12th pick range in the draft lottery:


    The Spurs must not win more than 7-10 games out of its remaining 26. Seven games max to get the 9th pick, ten games max to get the 12th pick. This is unlikely. This scenario requires a major free fall for the Spurs.

    Magic Number for the Spurs to land themselves in the 13th to 14th pick range in the draft lottery:


    The Spurs must not win more than 11-12 games out of its remaining 26. If the last ten games has been any indication of things to come, this scenario is possible.
    That's good work!

  23. #23
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    I‘m pretty confident in this team not being able to win 10 of the last 26 tbh
    Im gonna say I’m trending this direction as well

    the book on this team has been written defensively. Pop is not going to adjust his rotations mid season to compensate.

    Lonnie needs to come back a man possessed and Dieng needs to not have any lingering health concerns or else 10-16 is the ceiling for this team down the stretch and it could get uglier than that.

  24. #24
    Believe. Prime BEEF's Avatar
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    Dat future doe...

    In summation we are getting a worse player than the 3 minute a game guy we currently have and the 3 game a year guy we drafted the year before.
    hahaha. perfect

  25. #25
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    I am not sure but I remember us really falling where it looked like the team had given up until the Covid thing hit and we went into the Bubble?

    As far as Walker and Dieng those injuries won't impact them running up and down the floor but it will kill there shooting percentages and they will definitely not want to be getting any rebounding wars or driving in traffic.

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