View Poll Results: How long does it take you to consider a player a bust?

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  • Immediately: why the hell did we draft them?

    0 0%
  • I've seen all I need to after 1 year

    2 9.09%
  • 2-3 years. Pop takes rookies slow

    20 90.91%
  • Idgaf if he does only play 5 minutes, he is a star dammit

    0 0%
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  1. #1
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    These kids are coming in younger and younger and knowing less and less. The college game is killing the NBA in this regard where legit good coaches, Roy Williams, Coach K, Bill Self, they aren't worried about coaching anymore bc they know these kids are just going to leave the next year. My question though is how long does it take for you to consider our draft picks a bust?

    Here are the last 4 first round draft picks for the Spurs
    Devin Vassell
    Luka Samanic
    Keldon Johnson
    Lonnie Walker


    Just going off that list, there aren't that many misses. At first glance, you can see the talent and the tools for all of them and why it is we drafted them. But delving deeper, either the way they are being coached, to the way they are being used, or their personalities/injuries, there might not be as many hits as you think.

    Devin Vassell looks like a bust as of now. He is lost, doesn't have a go to skill, and seems shaken mentally both on offense and defense. These are normal rookie symptoms btw that all rookies face, not just Devin. But due to lack of playing time in the beginning of the year, he is having to overcome and face these obstacles at the worst possible moment, while we are fighting for a playoff spot. These games where he starts and scores 4 points and makes zero threes and over trys on defense should've been well behind him, if he would've gotten some playing time. Is it bad coaching? Is it Devin shrinking to the moment? Will he overcome it after reps or will he always just be this type of player? We don't know. But is it fair to start asking, is Devin Vassell a bust?

    Luka Sammich is another player who looks like a bust. He has his supporters of course who say that he should be starting (I'm one of them). But he is barely getting any minutes while a teammate of his who is the same age, picked in the same draft, but 10 slots after him looks like a steal. Luka has some talent, he has some athleticism to him that we desperately need. But he seems weak mentally, he shies from contact of big men, and he doesn't seem to be fully bought into the Spurs way of business yet. Well, at least that's how it looks from the outside in where Pop is starting 2 players his age and barely playing him. Can he get consistent playing time? Can he develop a consistent shot? Can he be tough on the boards? I don't know. But after 2 years is it fair to ask, is Luka Sammich a bust?

    Keldon Johnson. By definition Keldon can't be a bust since he was the 29th pick in the draft. What 29th pick can ever be considered a bust? These are fair points. But can he develop a 3 point shot? Or is this all he will become? Bc as he is now, he belongs as a bench player. He brings good energy and hustle and at ude. But he is small for his position, a step slow on defense, and gun shy to say the least when open for a jumper. These can all be taught and learned by him. Defense is about positioning and knowing where to be, size can be overcome with grit and strength, and a 3pointer can be developed. If this is the peak Keldon Johnson, a 10-12 ppg bench player who hustles and brings energy then that in itself is a steal for a 29th pick. But a lot of people have all star expectations for him. And in that sense, is it fair to start asking, is Keldon Johnson a bust?

    Lonnie Walker is a player who boggles the mind to watch. He is so smooth and athletic and lightning quick. But he gets in his own head too often, is chicken one day and feathers the next. One day he has aggression and the next he scores 3 points. He gets to the rim with ease and has no idea what to do when he gets there. He is lost half the time on both defense and offense. He is a player that nobody knows how to evaluate since he has all the tools and skills needed to be great, but for some reason it just doesn't translate to greatness. He is up for an extension soon, but do we even want to give him one? Or should we just look for his replacement? Is he a starter or is he a bench player? Can he be consistent? Can he take the net leap forward? Do we have a star player or is it fair to ask, is Lonnie Walker a bust?

  2. #2
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    That's a really tough call. I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. Some people considered Julius Randle an underachiever until this season, his 7th. Same with Kyle Anderson, also in his 7th season.

  3. #3
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    None of those 4 are even close to a bust.

  4. #4
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    That's a really tough call. I think you have to take it on a case by case basis. Some people considered Julius Randle an underachiever until this season, his 7th. Same with Kyle Anderson, also in his 7th season.
    Naw, Julius played well in NO.

    I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.

  5. #5
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    I think the issue with those four is that they're all potentially going to play above the spots where they were drafted, but it's still not clear if that means they're going to be significantly net positive players or not. Bryn Forbes played well beyond his expectations as an undrafted player, but he still didn't help the Spurs become a top team again. Lonnie seems to be absolutely oozing with potential, but through three years his on court impact numbers are pretty horrible.

  6. #6
    Kang Trill Clinton's Avatar
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    A year for me tbh. I'm confident that Luka is a G League All-Star and nothing more. The whole "Pop is holding him back" stuff is funny because when he does see the floor he looks lost and just runs around setting screens on ghosts.

  7. #7
    Believe.
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    I believe Pop handling of players play a role in the pace of their development. Lonnie has the most potential of all the young guys yet he hasn't put him in a position to grow, force responsibility on him, live with his mistakes. He brought White along like that, why not Walker?

  8. #8
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    I believe Pop handling of players play a role in the pace of their development. Lonnie has the most potential of all the young guys yet he hasn't put him in a position to grow, force responsibility on him, live with his mistakes. He brought White along like that, why not Walker?
    White was 23, with 4 years of college under his belt. Lonnie played one seaSon, and scored 11 ppg, with almost no other impact.

  9. #9
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    The closest player to a bust was samanic, you can cleary talk about a bust last year but he was young and now he starts to shows some nice things. I still think he has a long way to go but that's good to see some improvement.

    The others are not busts for me, even if they don't succeed that much. Walker could be really good, he's better year after year imo, needs to improve a lot of areas but he showed really good things this year. Johnson looks pretty good.

    Vassell it's year 1, let's wait a little bit.

    For the question, i go with 2-3 years minimum.
    Last edited by duncan2150; 05-03-2021 at 02:52 PM.

  10. #10
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
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    Depends on what your expectations are.

    If you're expecting them to be solid role players, then that's a fair expectation and in no way most of them are busts.

    If you were thinking they're going to be all-stars, then those are pretty high expectations and good for you for believing so. People are free to have their own opinions.

    It's the ones who obsessively post about a single player being a bust that makes me laugh

  11. #11
    Believe.
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    Naw, Julius played well in NO.

    I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.
    great answer!!!

    barring injuries usually the duration of their rookie deals is decent enough time to really see what the player has to give. Of course there are exceptions to that rule but usually those players have or had injuries or having unstable coaching/team dynamics

  12. #12
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    Depends on what your expectations are.

    If you're expecting them to be solid role players, then that's a fair expectation and in no way most of them are busts.

    If you were thinking they're going to be all-stars, then those are pretty high expectations and good for you for believing so. People are free to have their own opinions.
    +1

  13. #13
    what uganda do about it? Joseph Kony's Avatar
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    all of those guys are going to be/already are rotation level guys in the NBA and considering only Vassell was a "lotto" pick, that's a fairly impressive feat. but in general you can't really call a player a bust until at least the end of the rookie deal, or maybe until they're like 25ish, depending on how old they were when drafted. even then there are late bloomers who end up excelling years later after going to good franchises. in any case i wouldnt consider any of the Spurs you listed busts, certainly not Keldon or Lonnie

  14. #14
    絶対領域が大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    These kids are coming in younger and younger and knowing less and less. The college game is killing the NBA in this regard where legit good coaches, Roy Williams, Coach K, Bill Self, they aren't worried about coaching anymore bc they know these kids are just going to leave the next year. My question though is how long does it take for you to consider our draft picks a bust?

    Here are the last 4 first round draft picks for the Spurs
    Devin Vassell
    Luka Samanic
    Keldon Johnson
    Lonnie Walker


    Just going off that list, there aren't that many misses. At first glance, you can see the talent and the tools for all of them and why it is we drafted them. But delving deeper, either the way they are being coached, to the way they are being used, or their personalities/injuries, there might not be as many hits as you think.

    Devin Vassell looks like a bust as of now. He is lost, doesn't have a go to skill, and seems shaken mentally both on offense and defense. These are normal rookie symptoms btw that all rookies face, not just Devin. But due to lack of playing time in the beginning of the year, he is having to overcome and face these obstacles at the worst possible moment, while we are fighting for a playoff spot. These games where he starts and scores 4 points and makes zero threes and over trys on defense should've been well behind him, if he would've gotten some playing time. Is it bad coaching? Is it Devin shrinking to the moment? Will he overcome it after reps or will he always just be this type of player? We don't know. But is it fair to start asking, is Devin Vassell a bust?

    Luka Sammich is another player who looks like a bust. He has his supporters of course who say that he should be starting (I'm one of them). But he is barely getting any minutes while a teammate of his who is the same age, picked in the same draft, but 10 slots after him looks like a steal. Luka has some talent, he has some athleticism to him that we desperately need. But he seems weak mentally, he shies from contact of big men, and he doesn't seem to be fully bought into the Spurs way of business yet. Well, at least that's how it looks from the outside in where Pop is starting 2 players his age and barely playing him. Can he get consistent playing time? Can he develop a consistent shot? Can he be tough on the boards? I don't know. But after 2 years is it fair to ask, is Luka Sammich a bust?

    Keldon Johnson. By definition Keldon can't be a bust since he was the 29th pick in the draft. What 29th pick can ever be considered a bust? These are fair points. But can he develop a 3 point shot? Or is this all he will become? Bc as he is now, he belongs as a bench player. He brings good energy and hustle and at ude. But he is small for his position, a step slow on defense, and gun shy to say the least when open for a jumper. These can all be taught and learned by him. Defense is about positioning and knowing where to be, size can be overcome with grit and strength, and a 3pointer can be developed. If this is the peak Keldon Johnson, a 10-12 ppg bench player who hustles and brings energy then that in itself is a steal for a 29th pick. But a lot of people have all star expectations for him. And in that sense, is it fair to start asking, is Keldon Johnson a bust?

    Lonnie Walker is a player who boggles the mind to watch. He is so smooth and athletic and lightning quick. But he gets in his own head too often, is chicken one day and feathers the next. One day he has aggression and the next he scores 3 points. He gets to the rim with ease and has no idea what to do when he gets there. He is lost half the time on both defense and offense. He is a player that nobody knows how to evaluate since he has all the tools and skills needed to be great, but for some reason it just doesn't translate to greatness. He is up for an extension soon, but do we even want to give him one? Or should we just look for his replacement? Is he a starter or is he a bench player? Can he be consistent? Can he take the net leap forward? Do we have a star player or is it fair to ask, is Lonnie Walker a bust?
    Bend over. I'll show you how long it takes for a player to bust.

  15. #15
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    Bend over. I'll show you how long it takes for a player to bust.

  16. #16
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    Depends on expectations, tbh.

    Guys like Duncan and Robinson were and should be expected to come in and produce right away.

    Still, people wanted to call Tim Duncan a bust after he got punked by Greg Ostertag in Summer League. We all saw how that worked out.

    For a lottery pick, I would say 2-3 years in the current system is reasonable to reach their "draft potential". For late-first rounders and beyond, I'd give them a couple more years, but you obviously aren't expecting All-Star talent that deep anyways.

    I think Murray is a great example. Rookie treatment first year, lost a year due to injury....in year 5 he is really blossoming, but I still think he is close to his ceiling and would be surprised if he busts through into All-Star category.

  17. #17
    The St. Croix Boy duncan2k5's Avatar
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    Keldon isn't small for his position... He is small for the position Pop plays him in... Keldon is a 2/3...That's what he has always played until Pop started doing this warped version of small ball where he thinks you literally have to put small players in positions that they're not designed to play... Even Derozan was a 2 until he came to san Antonio and started to play the 4... That's just silly ... Pop would have probably played dwyane wade at the 4 too, just like keldon

  18. #18
    Veteran james evans's Avatar
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    You have to look at how players are doing under Popovich and how they do when they get from under him. Popovich is in his goddamn 70s and refuse to change his ways and play the right individuals with each other. he continues to use HIS FAVORITE rotations until they work, and most of the time they never do. How often 5 years ago were we complaining about the west/diaw/mills/Anderson lineup? Did he ever stop that bull ? no.. He's gonna keep doing this nonsense that he knows isn't working, until it one day works and people can call him a genius for it.

  19. #19
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    Naw, Julius played well in NO.

    I give players their rookie contract duration. I think bust is also subjective, dependent on draft position. A PF gets drafted #20, and produces 10/6. Not a bust. Same player drafted at #2? Bust.
    Totally agree-- Randle put up good numbers before. But he wasn't considered a max guy & wasn't hearing chants of "MVP, MVP" while shooting free throws. This is the first season where he has really reached the heights of a true all star.

  20. #20
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    Totally agree-- Randle put up good numbers before. But he wasn't considered a max guy & wasn't hearing chants of "MVP, MVP" while shooting free throws. This is the first season where he has really reached the heights of a true all star.
    NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

  21. #21
    Veteran R. DeMurre's Avatar
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    NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.

  22. #22
    Believe. PrimeMinister's Avatar
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    In most situations I’d let them play out their rookie deal.

    “bust” is such a nebulous term that is a moving target depending on the player in question it’s hard to give one answer that isn’t boring and long.

  23. #23
    Still Sporting Ben Davis Allan Rowe vs Wade's Avatar
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    NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.
    ouch


    but true

  24. #24
    Veteran RC_Drunkford's Avatar
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    I don't think you can consider low first rounders busts tbh. As for those guys, they have to show significant improvement in year 4. Cause with Pop it's like this

    Year 1: they stuck in the G-League
    Year 2: They sitting on the bench getting almost no playing time behind washed up vets
    Year 3: regular bench player

    So yeah, year 4 is where they have to show they belong

  25. #25
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    NY fans are so starved, they would chant those things about DeRozan.
    And I think they may have their chance if my crystal ball is working properly.

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