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  1. #76
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    when the choice is between talented bigs or smalls, or less talented 6-8 guys, they went for the former and tried to make up for it by taking fliers on guys like Gee, Gist, Reynolds, etc.
    Exactly. Murphy fits that less-talented-but-might-make-up-for-it-because-he's-a-6-foot-9-wing archetype the Spurs have historically not valued.

  2. #77
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    Yes. Much better passer. Point I was making is that he’s still a pound it down low type player. 4 down offensive days are long gone.
    I think the hope is he can become a good outside shooter, which his good FT% suggests. He sets good picks and is a great roller, able to move into a quick post or make passes out of the position. He seems to not always pound the ball in the post, meaning he can abuse mismatches pretty badly. He also racks up fouls on opponents. In short, I think he can put a ton of pressure on defenses in multiple ways. LMA, who was very old when he came, was pretty limited in how dynamic he was. He still had value before he dropped off.

  3. #78
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I canít believe how many still havenít accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.
    This is the thought I can't quite shake when it comes to Sengun. As productive as he is, he's literally like the least coveted type of player right now. A 4.5 whose production in Europe was largely due to post-ups? Do the Spurs draft that in 2021? Maybe ... but I could also see the Spurs having like a second round grade on him.

  4. #79
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    People talk about swinging for the fences, for getting a guy who can possibly be a transformative talent and not just a potential role-player, then they mention a guy like Kai Jones. Alperen Sengun is already vastly better than Kai Jones and Kai Jones will never catch up. Jones has a remarkably low ceiling. He's like Lonnie but worse in terms of understanding basketball. Sengun is already a better shot-blocker and will most likely come around as a long-range shooter. Everything else he has over Jones enormously and he's only just turned nineteen.

    Of course Kai isn't the only other option. But at the #12 range, the only other player who is potentially transformative is Giddey, who also has risks. Or else you want a Kuminga to drop or take a potential migraine headache in Jalen Johnson.

    You really don't have the nearly limitless or unknown ceiling otherwise... if Sengun drops.

  5. #80
    Hope springs eternal. SAGirl's Avatar
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    I think the hope is he can become a good outside shooter, which his good FT% suggests. He sets good picks and is a great roller, able to move into a quick post or make passes out of the position. He seems to not always pound the ball in the post, meaning he can abuse mismatches pretty badly. He also racks up fouls on opponents. In short, I think he can put a ton of pressure on defenses in multiple ways. LMA, who was very old when he came, was pretty limited in how dynamic he was. He still had value before he dropped off.
    Being able to abuse mistmaches is one way to kill small ball. If a small can defend you and you can’t take advantage then the coach may very well choose to go small. And that means abuse that matchup. Take it to the hole, draw fouls etc. We all loved Diaw, he created a lot of opportunities for the team out of situations like this and he wasn’t a pound the ball type guy.

  6. #81
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Exactly. Murphy fits that less-talented-but-might-make-up-for-it-because-he's-a-6-foot-9-wing archetype the Spurs have historically not valued.
    I think had Murphy (assuming he's talented enough to even be in the top 22 picks -- I haven't seen a second of him play), would've been the pick in multiple seasons. I think what we've seen is a team who probably values 6-8 guys decently enough follow BPA and pick guys who are higher up on their board because their talent supersedes their size. Like:


    2008 -- George Hill has had a 13-year career and will probably get to choose when to retire. He's been a much better player than the best-performing 6-8 defender picked after him, LRMaM. And Mbah a Moute himself was a player I liked for years and wish SA had found a way to pick. But he was a best a good role-player whereas Hill was a featured starter. Considering that SA also needed to stabilize their guard position, picking him made sense.

    2009 -- Blair was obvious BPA. Think we both can accept that he was a rare case.

    2010 -- James Anderson was BPA as far as wings go, and he probably would've been an okay player without the injury. The next 6-8 wing that was drafted was Devin Ebanks at 43. They tried to trade Hill for Paul George and were denied.

    2011 -- Kawhi and Bertans

    2012 -- Only an uber-late second

    2013 -- Picked LJC who looked like the mobile defender you wanted before he got hurt.

    2014 -- Anderson is actually an example of that flawed player who's still tall and adds defensive utility

    2015 -- Another blood vessel burst in my eye. I'll be back

    2016 -- Murray. Maybe they could've picked Niang instead? He went at 50.

    2017 -- White. There was no 6-8 defender left in the draft

    2018 -- Walker. Musa was the next 6-8 wing to be drafted, at 29 and already traded. So far no one picked after Walker has broken out. Closest is probably KBD, and who knows if he was their second-round pick before Met-- There goes another blood vessel

    2019 -- Samanic. Basically what you hoped for.

    2020 -- Vassell. Guess you could say Poku would fit your list, but the jury's still out.

    I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.

  7. #82
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    Agreed...but do you think Murphy is a 6'9" Danny Green, as has been suggested here? I like him but, I'm not sure he's that... I have him as a mid first rounder so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to take him at 12 but, the DG comparison I'm not sold on.
    IMO, Murphy is not close to DG. DG was never hidden as a defender in college. DG also played some point in college...

  8. #83
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    I can’t believe how many still haven’t accepted that back to basket players like Sengun are no longer relevant in this league. Did you not just go thru 5 years of LaMarcus Aldridge? LA could shoot from distance and still held little value.
    Aldridge was old by the time he stopped "holding value". Even two years ago, he was good enough to break stats, basically. There are ways to leverage back-to-the-basket players in the modern NBA, but it takes a system that can get the offense into and out of those plays quickly and effectively. Just expecting a guy to do an iso post-up won't work.

  9. #84
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Agreed...but do you think Murphy is a 6'9" Danny Green, as has been suggested here? I like him but, I'm not sure he's that... I have him as a mid first rounder so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to take him at 12 but, the DG comparison I'm not sold on.
    No idea, actually. As I mentioned to timvp, I've never even heard anything about him. I'm just saying that folks thinking elite, almost generational three-and-D players are somehow not great picks at 12 are out of touch.

  10. #85
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    I think had Murphy (assuming he's talented enough to even be in the top 22 picks -- I haven't seen a second of him play), would've been the pick in multiple seasons. I think what we've seen is a team who probably values 6-8 guys decently enough follow BPA and pick guys who are higher up on their board because their talent supersedes their size. Like:


    2008 -- George Hill has had a 13-year career and will probably get to choose when to retire. He's been a much better player than the best-performing 6-8 defender picked after him, LRMaM. And Mbah a Moute himself was a player I liked for years and wish SA had found a way to pick. But he was a best a good role-player whereas Hill was a featured starter. Considering that SA also needed to stabilize their guard position, picking him made sense.

    2009 -- Blair was obvious BPA. Think we both can accept that he was a rare case.

    2010 -- James Anderson was BPA as far as wings go, and he probably would've been an okay player without the injury. The next 6-8 wing that was drafted was Devin Ebanks at 43. They tried to trade Hill for Paul George and were denied.

    2011 -- Kawhi and Bertans

    2012 -- Only an uber-late second

    2013 -- Picked LJC who looked like the mobile defender you wanted before he got hurt.

    2014 -- Anderson is actually an example of that flawed player who's still tall and adds defensive utility

    2015 -- Another blood vessel burst in my eye. I'll be back

    2016 -- Murray. Maybe they could've picked Niang instead? He went at 50.

    2017 -- White. There was no 6-8 defender left in the draft

    2018 -- Walker. Musa was the next 6-8 wing to be drafted, at 29 and already traded. So far no one picked after Walker has broken out. Closest is probably KBD, and who knows if he was their second-round pick before Met-- There goes another blood vessel

    2019 -- Samanic. Basically what you hoped for.

    2020 -- Vassell. Guess you could say Poku would fit your list, but the jury's still out.

    I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.
    Great work.

    Remember, too, that for most of those years we already had Kawhi Leonard on the roster. I guess timvp wanted a less talented version of the wing with that size and defensive capabilities. Or else he said something that doesn't make sense and is trying to cover for himself.

  11. #86
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    Kai Jones or Keon Johnson would be nice..

  12. #87
    Spurs fan in Georgia Drom John's Avatar
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    Basketball-Reference career VORP 2009 Draft

    1) James Harden
    2) Stephen Curry
    3) Blake Griffin
    4) Jrue Holliday
    5) DeMar DeRozan
    6) Danny Green
    7) Jeff Teague
    8) Ty Lawson
    9) Darren Collison
    10) Tyreke Evans
    11) Ricky Rubio
    12) Brandon Jennings
    13) James Johnson
    14) Patrick Beverley

    15) Patty Mills
    17) DeMarre Carroll
    26) DeJuan Blair (was top five during Spurs tenure)
    31) Nando De Colo
    35) Austin Daye
    39) Jeff Ayres
    DNP) Jack McClinton

  13. #88
    Spurs fan in Georgia Drom John's Avatar
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    Basketball-Reference career VORP 2009 Draft

    1) James Harden
    2) Stephen Curry
    3) Blake Griffin
    4) Jrue Holliday
    5) DeMar DeRozan
    6) Danny Green
    7) Jeff Teague
    8) Ty Lawson
    9) Darren Collison
    10) Tyreke Evans
    11) Ricky Rubio
    12) Brandon Jennings
    13) James Johnson
    14) Patrick Beverley

    15) Patty Mills
    17) DeMarre Carroll
    26) DeJuan Blair (was top five during Spurs tenure)
    31) Nando De Colo
    35) Austin Daye
    39) Jeff Ayres
    DNP) Jack McClinton

  14. #89
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I don't see the lack of value the way you do. They theoretically might've not valued a 6-8 SF, seeing as they did just fine with their 6-7 PFs, but I don't see any pick where there was an obvious candidate that they passed up on. We can talk about free agency and trades somewhat, but we run into Jefferson, Daye, Gay and Carroll pretty quickly. There's not too much to stand on there either.
    Good stuff but I wasn't specifically talking about the draft -- I'm talking about that archetype in general. I don't think I need to give further examples because it appears like there will be mental gymnastics done to for some reason to purposely dodge the point ... but there were seasons during the Dirk superstar era that it appeared obvious that the Spurs should acquire a big wing to throw at him -- especially after the We Believe Warriors beat the Mavs because they had like a half dozen of those players. Bowen was a great defender but it would have been nice to have an even bigger wing at their disposal. In more recent years, the Patty Mills/George Hill on Durant/Neph type of mismatches we've seen could have been more easily avoided if the Spurs gave extra value to long wings.

    If you want to counter that the Spurs have always given extra value to long wings ... I mean, that's fine. I disagree and I think history shows that pretty clearly but whatev. It's not something that can be proven or disproven.

    Back to the original point, I don't think Murphy is likely to be picked by the Spurs. I give him bonus points because he's a 6-foot-9 mobile long wing. I don't think the Spurs give him bonus points for that attribute. I could be wrong ... we'll see.

  15. #90
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    timvp do u watch college basketball?

  16. #91
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    Keen observation, my guy

    I was going to include a note about that but didn't think anyone would care.

    The Big Board also factored in my opinion of players. In the "most likely" write-up, I tried to look at the picks strictly from the Spurs' perspective. I like Murphy III because he's a big wing who will probably be a good defender against those big wing initiators the Spurs have struggled against since you-know-who got traded away. He's also been a really good shooter going back to his high school days. A 6-foot-9 mobile defender who could be a 40% three-point shooter is valuable in my eyes ... even if Murphy III will do nothing else other than shoot and defend.

    Unfortunately, the Spurs have always been weirdly hesitant to go after big wings. Between Hedo and Nephew we begged for them to at least get a legit long wing for the bench who can be used in certain matchups ... and it never really happened in those ~8 seasons. Since Neph was gifted, they again don't appear concerned about filling what still looks like a need.

    So, yeah, looking at the draft from the Spurs' perspective, since there's little to no historical evidence that they factor in the size of wings, then Murphy III is just a super one dimensional shooter ... which takes away half of his value and drops him out of the top ten.

    I would be surprised if the Spurs take Murphy ... but I'd be okay with it.
    I know, it just didn't add up to me.

    I doubt he has the strength to defend most of them. I see him as more of a non liability defender.

    The way I see it, they're so adverse to change that they actually probably project most of the current core to be long term fixtures, so outside of someone they deem to have star potential, they'll look for fit.


    This is the thought I can't quite shake when it comes to Sengun. As productive as he is, he's literally like the least coveted type of player right now. A 4.5 whose production in Europe was largely due to post-ups? Do the Spurs draft that in 2021? Maybe ... but I could also see the Spurs having like a second round grade on him.
    Since when have the Spurs cared about conventional wisdom? They've always had a thing for skilled bigs and let's call it, non inner city players (which has probably been exacerbated in recent years) and he checks both boxes.

    They've also given no indication that their long term goal is to build a championship contender. Instead, it appears to be becoming Pacers East and coincidentally his comp is Sabonis, a high floor/low ceiling regular season anchor just like Aldridge was.

  17. #92
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    timvp do u watch college basketball?
    I liked your post better before the edit, tbh

    Spurs fans already preparing themselves for their annual meltdown. Should be fun

  18. #93
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    Since when have the Spurs cared about conventional wisdom?
    Half agree ..... but then I think of RC talking about how they drafted Samanic because you need perimeter-oriented, perimeter-talented power forwards in the today's league. To go from that way of thinking where future PFs need to basically be jumbo SFs to drafting Sengun would require quite a change of perspective by the front office.

  19. #94
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    In terms of the Spurs not targeting big wings, it's because most are inner city types.

    They probably only pulled the trigger on S bag because they thought his being socially awkward meant he didn't fit the stereotype.

    Half agree ..... but then I think of RC talking about how they drafted Samanic because you need perimeter-oriented, perimeter-talented power forwards in the today's league. To go from that way of thinking where future PFs need to basically be jumbo SFs to drafting Sengun would require quite a change of perspective by the front office.
    Sengun is a C, who'd ideally be paired with a floor spacing, rim protecting "PF" like Grant.

  20. #95
    Veteran Floyd Pacquiao's Avatar
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    As long as they don’t draft an undersized 2 I’m good.

  21. #96
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    Mentally preparing myself for a Kispert selection. It will be okay. Step away from the keyboard...

  22. #97
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    In terms of the Spurs not targeting big wings, it's because most are inner city types.
    I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning but you had me nodding my head for the first half of the sentence.

    Oof. A 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10 center without a noteworthy wingspan and without explosive vertical pop would be destined to be a bottom tier defender. If you view Sengun as a PF or a PF/C, at least it's theoretically possible he could get in great shape and become mobile enough to hang while moving to center when the matchup allows it.

  23. #98
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    Please let one of koody,sengun or wagner fall. I know its unlikely but pleease

  24. #99
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    I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning but you had me nodding my head for the first half of the sentence.



    Oof. A 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10 center without a noteworthy wingspan and without explosive vertical pop would be destined to be a bottom tier defender. If you view Sengun as a PF or a PF/C, at least it's theoretically possible he could get in great shape and become mobile enough to hang while moving to center when the matchup allows it.
    Sure, but that's a different debate. I see no credible argument for him being a "PF" in the present day, when he can't (for now) shoot or defend in space. He can't protect the rim either, but he'll have to play it by default and have a "PF" next to him who can provide rim protection.

  25. #100
    Damn You Commies T Park's Avatar
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    Sengun’ s tape shows when he doesnt have to move vertically on the perimeter and allowed to be just a rim defender he does quite well.

    Hes 18, theres still literal and basketball growth there.

    Hes offensively already more advanced than Jokic was at 18. This is a no brainer if hes at 12.

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