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  1. #1
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    London (CNN Business)Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil.

    A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills ing.

    Further complicating the picture is mounting pressure on governments to accelerate the transition to cleaner energy as world leaders prepare for a critical climate summit in November.
    In China, rolling blackouts for residents have already begun, while in India power stations are scrambling for coal. Consumer advocates in Europe are calling for a ban on disconnections if customers can't promptly settle what they owe.

    "This price shock is an unexpected crisis at a critical juncture," EU energy chief Kadri Simson said Wednesday, confirming the bloc will outline its longer-term policy response next week. "The immediate priority should be to mitigate social impacts and protect vulnerable households."

    In Europe, natural gas is now trading at the equivalent of $230 per barrel, in oil terms — up more than 130% since the beginning of September and more than eight times higher than the same point last year, according to data from Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.

    In East Asia, the cost of natural gas is up 85% since the start of September, hitting roughly $204 per barrel in oil terms. Prices remain much lower in the United States, a net exporter of natural gas, but still have shot up to their highest levels in 13 years.
    "A lot of it is feeding off of fear about what the winter's going to look like," said Nikos Tsafos, an energy and geopolitics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. He thinks that anxiety has caused the market to break away from the fundamentals of supply and demand.

    The frenzy to secure natural gas is also pushing up the price of coal and oil, which can be used as subs utes in some cases, but are even worse for the climate. India, which remains extremely dependent on coal, said this week that as many as 63 of its 135 coal-fired power plants have two days or less of supplies.
    The cir stances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19. Dynamics over the winter could make matters worse.
    No easy solution
    The crisis is rooted in soaring demand for energy as the economic recovery from the pandemic takes hold, and a carefully calibrated system that's easily disrupted by weather events or mechanical problems.
    An unusually long and cold winter earlier this year depleted stocks of natural gas in Europe. Soaring demand for energy has impeded the restocking process, which typically happens over the spring and summer.

    China's growing appe e for liquified natural gas has meant LNG markets can't fill the gap. A decline in Russian gas exports and unusually calm winds have exacerbated the problem.

    "The current surge in European energy power prices is truly unique," energy analysts at the Société Générale bank told clients this week. "Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast. And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild."
    The dynamics are reverberating globally. In the United States, natural gas prices have risen 47% since the beginning of August. The scramble for coal is also triggering a e in the price many European companies have to pay for carbon credits so they can burn fossil fuels.
    Additionally, the energy crunch is supporting oil prices, which hit seven-year highs in the United States this week. Bank of America recently predicted that a cold winter could push the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, past $100 per barrel. Prices haven't been that high since 2014.

    ---------------------------------

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/07/busin...sis/index.html
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 10-07-2021 at 09:49 AM.

  2. #2
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Spain has proposed one solution: clawing back energy companies windfall profits and rebating ratepayers.

  3. #3
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Spain has proposed one solution: clawing back energy companies windfall profits and rebating ratepayers.
    Seems fair to me.

    I would note that energy price es preceded the last real estate bubble bursting.

    Think China, which depends on energy to continue building (concrete, steel). price e there means they can't keep building and borrowing to fund more building. given vacancy rates... ish.

  4. #4
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    power rationing in China will effect production and hence international trade

    https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2110046016/

  5. #5
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    US saber rattling and Biden's continuation of Trump's trade war with China make things...complicated

  6. #6
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Called it

  7. #7
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    energy suppliers making windfall profits will bribe legislatures for protection and continuation of their profits

  8. #8
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    desperation, tbh

    there's little the US can do to stanch commodity inflation.


  9. #9
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    interesting wrinkle


  10. #10
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    desperation, tbh

    there's little the US can do to stanch commodity inflation.

    bad ass joe, promises made, promises kept

  11. #11
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    failed to invest in renewables and handcuffed the country with the 2nd most estimated natural gas reserves

    Another big reason for the natural gas shortage is that the US strangled Iran’s natural gas industry and prevented Total and S from developing it. The US forestalled major Iranian gas production even after it signed the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the other UN Security Council members. Despite agreeing to lift US unilateral sanctions, the US did not do so because the Republican Party refused to legislate sanctions relief. The US Treasury Department went on threatening billions of dollars of fines on any company that developed Iranian gas. Under Trump the United States breached its treaty with the UN Security Council and Iran entirely and imposed a financial and trade embargo on Iran that further debilitated its gas industry.


    The US Energy Information Agency notes,



    • “Iran exports natural gas by pipeline to Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Iraq, and it receives imports from Azerbaijan. In 2020, Iran exported about 590 billion cubic feet (Bcf) and imported 7 Bcf of natural gas via pipelines (Figure 8). Iran’s natural gas imports decreased substantially after 2015, but exports rose sharply because of Iran’s increased natural gas production from several new South Pars projects since 2014 and increased exports to Iraq. Iran stopped importing natural gas from Turkmenistan in 2019 because higher production and more pipeline coverage made it possible for domestic supplies to reach the northeastern region.”

    The EIA also says, “Iran’s estimated proved natural gas reserves were 1,200 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of December 2020, second only to Russia . . . ”


    In other words, if the US had not stunted Iran’s economy, Iran could be producing triple what it does in the way of natural gas, matching Russia.


    Personally I am all for keeping it in the ground. But you can’t take most of Iranian gas, the world’s second largest reserves, off the international market and then blame renewables for the shortfall.
    https://www.juancole.com/2021/10/ren...g-iranian.html

  12. #12
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    That mother er hadn't even crouched into a good squat in there when he sent gas up a buck-a-gallon...

    President Trump: $2.29 a gallon.
    Mother er Biden: $3.29 a gallon.

  13. #13
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    failed to invest in renewables and handcuffed the country with the 2nd most estimated natural gas reserves

    https://www.juancole.com/2021/10/ren...g-iranian.html
    The show with Iran is, as is very common for master of ceremonies USA, blowback from imperial USA ing around in Iran 70 years ago.

  14. #14
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  15. #15
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  16. #16
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    industrial shut downs


  17. #17
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  18. #18
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    This may accelerate the bursting of the chinese real estate bubble.

  19. #19
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    This may accelerate the bursting of the chinese real estate bubble.
    would dovetail with the current political objective of reining in rich folks and financialization in China

  20. #20
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    That mother er hadn't even crouched into a good squat in there when he sent gas up a buck-a-gallon...

    President Trump: $2.29 a gallon.
    Mother er Biden: $3.29 a gallon.
    Now, it's...

    President Trump: $2.29 a gallon.
    Mother er Biden: $3.50 a gallon.

  21. #21
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    The show with Iran is, as is very common for master of ceremonies USA, blowback from imperial USA ing around in Iran 70 years ago.
    The Shah: .17 cents a gallon.
    Mother er Biden: $3.50 a gallon.

  22. #22
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    The Shah: .17 cents a gallon.
    Mother er Biden: $3.50 a gallon.
    Take a bus.
    Texas makes it easy for companies to just burn off natural gas. As I write we burn off fuel.
    "business friendly"

    So get your ass on public transportation if you dont like it.

  23. #23
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Take a bus.
    Texas makes it easy for companies to just burn off natural gas. As I write we burn off fuel.
    "business friendly"

    So get your ass on public transportation if you dont like it.
    I have to walk 3 miles to get to it.

  24. #24
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    I have to walk 3 miles to get to it.
    And the problem is what?
    You can put strap your bike to the bus if you cant walk.

  25. #25
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    And the problem is what?
    You can put strap your bike to the bus if you cant walk.
    some people have mobility problems a bicycle won't fix

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