Page 12 of 15 FirstFirst ... 289101112131415 LastLast
Results 276 to 300 of 373
  1. #276
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    Here you go, Will Hunting. Hope you enjoy. As per the Ohio rules you mentioned, cities/counties etc, here's a potential 8-7 (D) redistricted map I made for you for 2022. Note some of the seats are fairly close and the Dems could lose, but at least their in bents are shored up and they have great long term winning prospects. Jim Jordan is drawn out and would be defeated and forced to RETIRE from Politics as he lives in Delaware county and could not run for a different district without relocating. A bunch of huge victories and pick ups for the Democratic Party of Ohio.







  2. #277
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    Here you go, Will Hunting. Hope you enjoy. As per the Ohio rules you mentioned, cities/counties etc, here's a potential 8-7 (D) redistricted map I made for you for 2022. Note some of the seats are fairly close and the Dems could lose, but at least their in bents are shored up and they have great long term winning prospects. Jim Jordan is drawn out and would be defeated and forced to RETIRE from Politics as he lives in Delaware county and could not run for a different district without relocating. A bunch of huge victories and pick ups for the Democratic Party of Ohio.





    It's a fair map but it still doesn't comply with the OH rules because districts 2 and 6 share >1 county with each other. The one thing OH's rules basically prevent are long, snake districts like the OH-06 you drew.

    This is the fair OH map I drew:



    Lorraine and Cuyahoga County together have almost exactly the right amount of population for 2 districts, which is what 9 and 11 are.

    The only really goofy looking part of this map is the way 13 and 14 are split but there's a rationale behind that, Youngstown and Akron are both heavily union cities with significant black populations, so putting them in the same district makes sense from a communities of interest perspective.

    Also I'm not sure why more people don't know this, but Jim Jordan wouldn't have to relocate in your scenario. You don't need to live in the district you run in, you just need to live in the state.

  3. #278
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    It's a fair map but it still doesn't comply with the OH rules because districts 2 and 6 share >1 county with each other. The one thing OH's rules basically prevent are long, snake districts like the OH-06 you drew.

    This is the fair OH map I drew:



    Lorraine and Cuyahoga County together have almost exactly the right amount of population for 2 districts, which is what 9 and 11 are.

    The only really goofy looking part of this map is the way 13 and 14 are split but there's a rationale behind that, Youngstown and Akron are both heavily union cities with significant black populations, so putting them in the same district makes sense from a communities of interest perspective.

    Also I'm not sure why more people don't know this, but Jim Jordan wouldn't have to relocate in your scenario. You don't need to live in the district you run in, you just need to live in the state.
    Oh I didn't know that... I thought I had read that somewhere. I guess it might vary state to state? I do wish every single state had state cons utional laws like Ohio's, but then again not every states have such nice-looking counties as Ohio's except for mostly plains states that are ruby red anyway. It would be nice if Illinois for instance had Ohio's cons utional law... maybe those guidelines should be federal law and not state to state? Because Ohio's state cons ution pretty much forbids gerrymandering... I hear one JB Pritzker likes snakes a whole lot.

    It's too much of a pipe dream to give college town Athens, Ohio any representation, I guess. At least your map gave Dayton a chance. Not the best chance, but a chance in any case. So in your case Marcy Kaptur wouldn't have to relocate to run for her native CD-5 that you drew (she is currently CD-9 but in jeopardy if the GOP map stands) or she could run for your more compe ive version of CD-9 based in Lorain.

    The problem I had making a blue district out of Lorain was that Medina county has gotten so red Republican lately. It used to be pretty blue iirc before the 2016 cycle. So putting it into your CD-7 makes sense. Lorain on the other hand is still pretty liberal and is one of the biggest cities % wise for Hispanics in Ohio.


    If I'm POTUS I'm signing your Ohio map into law, pending a fair Illinois map. Please draw me a fair IL map. Proportionality is 57% D - 43% R, so the map should be around 10-7 (D).
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 03-04-2022 at 11:23 AM.

  4. #279
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    49,299
    I just sort of wonder what the effects will be of the districts the fascist party is attempting to draw in the states they control will see a very steady attrition over time due to the unvaxxed dying from COVID over the long term.

    In some of the thinner margined districts that will make for closer and closer races as the decade wears on.

  5. #280
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    Oh I didn't know that... I thought I had read that somewhere. I guess it might vary state to state?
    It does. Ohio has a ballot amendment on redistricting in 2015 that put these rules into place; in 2010 Ohio has full R control and basically no rules against gerrymandering, so the Ohio GOP was able to run wild.

    IMO Ohio's laws are too specific to apply federally. A federal law should be broader and be more like Michigan's guidelines imo.

  6. #281
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    I just sort of wonder what the effects will be of the districts the fascist party is attempting to draw in the states they control will see a very steady attrition over time due to the unvaxxed dying from COVID over the long term.

    In some of the thinner margined districts that will make for closer and closer races as the decade wears on.
    There's actually an argument to be made for the vaxxed (specifically the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna shots, and extra-especially the "boosted") dying younger and suffering more long term health consequences from those shots. The "unvaxxed dying from COVID" was largely exclusively related to Delta and is over now. Those unvaxxed who died of covid/covid plus co-morbidities including cancer, are dead, while those who recovered have a stronger immune system, and much stronger than if they had received the mRNA shots.

    Heck I got flu shots consistently every year from Fall 2018-Fall 2011, and from 2009-2012 (mostly my high school years) I was never sicker and more prone to catching bad colds and URIs in general. So I was a very early adopter of swearing off flu/URI vaccines, as I never received one after 2013. (I skipped 2012 my senior year in HS and that was by far my healthiest year in school.)

    In 2013, senior year of high school, just before taking off to college and losing my virginity, I chose to get the Gardasil shot suite (it's 3 shots over 5-6 months, my first was in January '13 and last in July) since I wasn't in a relationship or going to prom in San Antonio anyways, I figured it would be a great idea to prevent ever getting HPV, which can cause certain cancers especially testicle and mouth/throat cancers in men. Today I'm glad that I can get laid with anyone and put it in raw and that I'll always be HPV-negative no matter what, and will never give a woman cancer either, but the Gardasil shot really weakened me for quite a few years. From 2014-2019 I had Guillain Barre syndrome and the primary symptom was extreme daytime fatigue. It finally subsided in very late 2019. But it was a major factor why I was extremely sleepy all day every day throughout the last half of undergrad, my failed 2016 entry level application developer job, craved naps like a heroin addict craves dope EVERY SINGLE DAY.. you have no idea. For five ing years, and it was worst in 2016 and 2017 and untreated. It was largely why I was completely unemployed most of 2017 and broke by Spring 2018. All I wanted to do was literally sleep and nothing else. Caffeine, red bull/monster, and other treatments like Modafinil just made it worse. So yeah, that was a waste of 5 years of my youth that seriously affected me and made me make some long-lasting bad decisions especially in 2016.

    So yeah, I don't believe in (most) vaccines anymore. I get the baby/legacy shots (polio et al., hepa is, meningococcus, and a tetanus booster every 10-15 years) but I'll never take a URI shot again and that Gardasil vax suite affected my life negatively for a very long time. Half the time I didn't know if I had an underlying untreated condition and was dying inside. I didn't have health insurance from 2015-2019, so that hurt, too.

    It does. Ohio has a ballot amendment on redistricting in 2015 that put these rules into place; in 2010 Ohio has full R control and basically no rules against gerrymandering, so the Ohio GOP was able to run wild.

    IMO Ohio's laws are too specific to apply federally. A federal law should be broader and be more like Michigan's guidelines imo.
    Either way, there needs to be a federal law on that. Abolish VRA but replace it with a law on keeping communities together, which is backdoor language for enforcing what the VRA was originally meant to stand for. Though it shouldn't be based on race. Race is stupid, it's not 1962 it's 2022. People are people, Americans are Americans. Who gives a about what color your skin is? Education and lifestyle is much more of a fair determinant than skin color.

    Michigan's map is excellent and received the highest score of 94% fairness from Dave's website, followed by Colorado and Arizona. Though AZ does put blue Flagstaff and northern Indian areas into a red district.

    the 10th Amendment, though.

  7. #282
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

    The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.

  8. #283
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

    The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.
    Add to that fact that most of the GOP voters who died of covid are old boomers and depressionaries that never supported Trump or the populist right wing movement anyway. They're the bloc that largely voted Reagan/Bush/Dole/Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/nobody/Biden... they're the bloc that flipped AZ for the first time since 1996.

    I do think as covid-19 mutates into weaker and weaker high virulence but low aggression strains unlike Delta that the pool of "dead due to no vax" is becoming slim to nil and is essentially a 2021 exclusive problem, particularly the OG strain (spring) and Delta (summer/early fall).

  9. #284
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    Either way, there needs to be a federal law on that. Abolish VRA but replace it with a law on keeping communities together, which is backdoor language for enforcing what the VRA was originally meant to stand for. Though it shouldn't be based on race. Race is stupid, it's not 1962 it's 2022. People are people, Americans are Americans. Who gives a about what color your skin is? Education and lifestyle is much more of a fair determinant than skin color.

    Michigan's map is excellent and received the highest score of 94% fairness from Dave's website, followed by Colorado and Arizona. Though AZ does put blue Flagstaff and northern Indian areas into a red district.
    Race is one of many factors when gauging communities of interest. It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be the be-all end-all. COI factors should be race, income levels, urban/rural divide, education levels, etc., in no particular order. The other thing every state should do like Michigan is make it so a district is either safe or highly compe ive. The districts that are R+15 or D+15 are the worst because they're not close enough to every be compe ive while they dilute a lot of voters from the minority party.

    Some of the VRA stuff is really dumb though and should go away completely. E.g., people would try to get the Texas map I posted thrown out in court because the compact districts I drew in the Rio Grande Valley would be considered "packing" too many Hispanic voters in one district even though they districts look totally normal.

  10. #285
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    Add to that fact that most of the GOP voters who died of covid are old boomers and depressionaries that never supported Trump or the populist right wing movement anyway. They're the bloc that largely voted Reagan/Bush/Dole/Bush/Bush/McCain/Romney/nobody/Biden... they're the bloc that flipped AZ for the first time since 1996.

    I do think as covid-19 mutates into weaker and weaker high virulence but low aggression strains unlike Delta that the pool of "dead due to no vax" is becoming slim to nil and is essentially a 2021 exclusive problem, particularly the OG strain (spring) and Delta (summer/early fall).
    Eh idk about that....the anti-vaxxers aren't Romney/Biden voters.

    What people don't get though is that the average unvaccinated American is some QAnon believing MAGAboomer, the average unvaccinated American is someone who didn't get vaccinated out of sheer laziness and apathy.

    Also for states that did have a high volume of MAGAboomers dying from COVID, they aren't compe ive. South Dakota and West Virginia aren't going to flip because they each had an higher proportion of GOP COVID deaths

  11. #286
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    Race is one of many factors when gauging communities of interest. It shouldn't be ignored but it shouldn't be the be-all end-all. COI factors should be race, income levels, urban/rural divide, education levels, etc., in no particular order. The other thing every state should do like Michigan is make it so a district is either safe or highly compe ive. The districts that are R+15 or D+15 are the worst because they're not close enough to every be compe ive while they dilute a lot of voters from the minority party.

    Some of the VRA stuff is really dumb though and should go away completely. E.g., people would try to get the Texas map I posted thrown out in court because the compact districts I drew in the Rio Grande Valley would be considered "packing" too many Hispanic voters in one district even though they districts look totally normal.
    I don't think "packing" too many Hispanic voters in a majority Hispanic district is a problem at all. For example, a sleeper this year is that TX-34 may go red, even though it's listed on 538 as safe blue D+16 and has been blue for the entirety of its existence. TX GOP did an extremely smart thing picking 3 astute educated younger Hispanic conservative women (Cassy Garcia, Monica De La Cruz, Mayra Flores) to run for those 3 historically-blue-trending-red districts and my prediction is that they're going to sweep, and thus flip, all 3 of those seats (all are Tejano majority). Running 3 Hispanic conservative women is genius because the hard-rightward trend among Hispanics in 2020 was mostly Hispanic men and much less so Hispanic women, but I'm predicting the women (and more men than before) Tejanos flip red in 2022. Don't look too far into the primary turnout numbers because most of them are registered ancestral (D)s from the past that are too lazy/apathetic to re-register as a Republican (I mean I would be too, but I'm registered as an indepedent anyway), but that doesn't mean they'll vote (D) in the general election.

    Whether or not you like the current Texas map, you've got to admit it does a good job avoiding the aforementioned D+10-15 or R+10-15 seats. Everything is solid D or solid R except for those three tossup RGV seats and the biggo TX-23 district which is already R+13 and trending safe red anyway with the RGV trends.

    Eh idk about that....the anti-vaxxers aren't Romney/Biden voters.

    What people don't get though is that the average unvaccinated American is some QAnon believing MAGAboomer, the average unvaccinated American is someone who didn't get vaccinated out of sheer laziness and apathy.

    Also for states that did have a high volume of MAGAboomers dying from COVID, they aren't compe ive. South Dakota and West Virginia aren't going to flip because they each had an higher proportion of GOP COVID deaths
    I'm unvaccinated and millennial, not a QAnon-ist, don't think Trump won MI or especially PA so although the allegations of fraud in GA/AZ (especially GA) are fair they are pointless in terms of the electoral college. I'm not lazy or apathetic, I'm quite a go-getter, but I don't believe it's a good idea for the young. For the old (over 50 and past the age of procreation/fertility), yes they should have gotten the vaccine(s). My mother chose to get the two pfizer shots when they first came out, February 2021. I caught Omicron in Wisconsin in mid December 2021 (unknowingly at the time), drove back to San Antonio, passed it to my mother who got it a lot symptomatically and for a lot longer than me... and she's vaxed and I'm not. Granted she is older, but with no co-morbidities. Food for thought, not that the vaccine(s) are necessarily bad in her case, just that they weren't particularly effective at saving her from the bad flu symptoms whereas for me it was more like a routine common cold even though I tested positive first.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 03-04-2022 at 02:04 PM.

  12. #287
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    I don't think "packing" too many Hispanic voters in a majority Hispanic district is a problem at all. For example, a sleeper this year is that TX-34 may go red, even though it's listed on 538 as safe blue D+16 and has been blue for the entirety of its existence. TX GOP did an extremely smart thing picking 3 astute educated younger Hispanic conservative women (Cassy Garcia, Monica De La Cruz, Mayra Flores) to run for those 3 historically-blue-trending-red districts and my prediction is that they're going to sweep, and thus flip, all 3 of those seats (all are Tejano majority). Running 3 Hispanic conservative women is genius because the hard-rightward trend among Hispanics in 2020 was mostly Hispanic men and much less so Hispanic women, but I'm predicting the women (and more men than before) Tejanos flip red in 2022. Don't look too far into the primary turnout numbers because most of them are registered ancestral (D)s from the past that are too lazy/apathetic to re-register as a Republican (I mean I would be too, but I'm registered as an indepedent anyway), but that doesn't mean they'll vote (D) in the general election.

    Whether or not you like the current Texas map, you've got to admit it does a good job avoiding the aforementioned D+10-15 or R+10-15 seats. Everything is solid D or solid R except for those three tossup RGV seats and the biggo TX-23 district which is already R+13 and trending safe red anyway with the RGV trends.
    It's not a problem and it's not even packing, that's why the VRA is dumb in that small respect.

    Drawing compact districts in RGV isn't packing when those areas are just heavily populated with Hispanics; it has to be a deliberate to be packing imo. E.g., when Florida drew a district snaking from Orlando all the way up to Jacksonville to soak up as many black voters as possible, that was packing. Or when NC did the same thing going from Charlotte all the way to Greensboro.

  13. #288
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    49,299
    The people dying the most due to being unvaccinated are black belt Democrats. if GA-02 or NC-01 flip this decade, or if the black district in MS loses VRA protection by 2030, black voters in those districts dying because of muh Tuskegee Experiments will be a big reason why.

    The idea that GOP voters are dying en masse while Dem voters aren't is just a liberal pipe dream.
    Not what I am saying at all.

    4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

    Play that out over a decade.

    It is eating at the margins, and will do so.

  14. #289
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    49,299
    There's actually an argument to be made for the vaxxed (specifically the mRNA Pfizer/Moderna shots, and extra-especially the "boosted") dying younger and suffering more long term health consequences from those shots.
    (shrugs)

    There is an argument to be made that the earth is flat.

    "Both sides have good arguments"

    GTFO.

  15. #290
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    49,299
    while those who recovered have a stronger immune system, and much stronger than if they had received the mRNA shots.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias


    just.... stop. smh

  16. #291
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    (shrugs)

    There is an argument to be made that the earth is flat.

    "Both sides have good arguments"

    GTFO.
    Your kneejerk reaction to everything since forever just proves you're one of the (many) sheeple that only has ever factored in one side and one side only, the cow cud fed to you by the generic MSM.

    Left wing Media (MSNBC, TYT, The Guardian, Al Jazeera, New Yorker)
    Generic MSM (CNN, ABC News, CBS News, ABC News, arguably NYT/Wash Post, Let's Talk Elections)
    Generic Conservative MSM (Fox News, NY Post, The Hill)
    Right wing Media (OANN, NewsMax, Breitbart, Red Eagle Politics)

    You've got to take grains of salt from each one and weigh them yourself and make a decision rather than just being a number in a human centipede.

    Not what I am saying at all.

    4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

    Play that out over a decade.

    It is eating at the margins, and will do so.
    Incorrect. Turn off MSDNC and do some actual independent research. Even your fellow Democrat proves otherwise.

  17. #292
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    Everything makes so much sense here. And the affluent North part of Fort Worth is kept red (24). If you found a way to put the city of Denton (120K population, 1 major state flagship university and 1 other decent sized vast-majority-female university) in 25 instead of 26, you could make it a pure swing district.

    Also, solid job on extending the 3rd district from SMU to Plano but cir venting the ghetto areas between it. They belong in (32) in that map and it shows.

    Only thing is I'd probably extend 24 westward at least to I-35. That Northern Fort Worth area has the same demography as Keller, Southlake, etc.
    Updated DFW and I think this one is better, need to just tweak populations a bit but this is the gist of it.

    Unfortunately Denton is just too far out there to be in a swing district; in 2030 that probably changes, for now it just doesn't make sense.

    This makes 24 solid red by taking it out of Dallas County and giving it the full set of the north Fort Worth suburbs.

    District 25 looks a little goofy but it's able to rope in all the heavily Asian areas which works out well, creates a 30% Asian district.


  18. #293
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    It's not a problem and it's not even packing, that's why the VRA is dumb in that small respect.

    Drawing compact districts in RGV isn't packing when those areas are just heavily populated with Hispanics; it has to be a deliberate to be packing imo. E.g., when Florida drew a district snaking from Orlando all the way up to Jacksonville to soak up as many black voters as possible, that was packing. Or when NC did the same thing going from Charlotte all the way to Greensboro.
    The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC).


    Updated DFW and I think this one is better, need to just tweak populations a bit but this is the gist of it.

    Unfortunately Denton is just too far out there to be in a swing district; in 2030 that probably changes, for now it just doesn't make sense.

    This makes 24 solid red by taking it out of Dallas County and giving it the full set of the north Fort Worth suburbs.

    District 25 looks a little goofy but it's able to rope in all the heavily Asian areas which works out well, creates a 30% Asian district.

    Not only is that 6-4, but as a former resident of very white and conservative The Colony/Frisco I'd be ing pissed off with 25.

    Merging Irving and Plano through southern Carrollton and Addison way is fine to get that high Asian/East Indian population is fine, but that should be coming out of that 3rd district. The Colony/north Carrollton/Lewisville/Frisco northward is very white north of the GHWB Turnpike / west of the DNT Turnpike and only gets whiter and more conservative once you get north of TX-121/SRT Turnpike. That should definitely have a red district.

  19. #294
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC).
    That's not race packing, it's just an obnoxious Dem gerrymander

    As bad as that one is, the driftless area snake (Bustos' old district) is even funnier.

  20. #295
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2005
    Post Count
    49,299
    Not what I am saying at all.

    4 to 8 times as many Republicans are dying, due to differentials in vaccination rates.

    Play that out over a decade.

    It is eating at the margins, and will do so.

    Incorrect. Turn off MSDNC and do some actual independent research. Even your fellow Democrat proves otherwise.
    How have you determined I am incorrect?

    How have you determined that I relied on a single news source for my statement?

  21. #296
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    That's not race packing, it's just an obnoxious Dem gerrymander

    As bad as that one is, the driftless area snake (Bustos' old district) is even funnier.
    They're both very bad. I'm about to make an attempt at a fair 10-7 Map in IL.

    As for DFW, leave the 24th alone and find a way to make 3 from Irving near Las Colinas area through Plano, that's a very tech-heavy demographic, yes it's plurality white but loaded with Asians, East Indians and other foreign nationals as well. It's better if you just put the SMU area of north Dallas with one of the solid blue districts if you have to. Like we already established in Ohio, you don't just gerrymander for the sake of a college/university. If you have to, make 25 start around the George Bush Turnpike or, if you have to, the TX-121/Sam Rayburn Turnpike and draw a red district from there, make sure to include The Colony/northern Carrollton/Frisco/etc and sure, even include Denton in it if you have to... but no, the district won't flip blue over Denton.

  22. #297
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    The JB Pritzker snake from East St. Louis through Springfield all the way to Champaign (UIUC).




    Not only is that 6-4, but as a former resident of very white and conservative The Colony/Frisco I'd be ing pissed off with 25.

    Merging Irving and Plano through southern Carrollton and Addison way is fine to get that high Asian/East Indian population is fine, but that should be coming out of that 3rd district. The Colony/north Carrollton/Lewisville/Frisco northward is very white north of the GHWB Turnpike / west of the DNT Turnpike and only gets whiter and more conservative once you get north of TX-121/SRT Turnpike. That should definitely have a red district.
    Frisco was 48% Biden 50% Trump, you're right that it used to be ruby red but it isn't anymore. Same with the Colony and Carrollton.

    Either way there's no perfect way to draw it, some people are always going to end disenfranchised, but in this scenario they're still getting a compe ive district. It'd be Biden +7 but with A LOT of ancestral R voters.

  23. #298
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    Frisco was 48% Biden 50% Trump, you're right that it used to be ruby red but it isn't anymore. Same with the Colony and Carrollton.

    Either way there's no perfect way to draw it, some people are always going to end disenfranchised, but in this scenario they're still getting a compe ive district. It'd be Biden +7 but with A LOT of ancestral R voters.
    Hey, now that "official" 2022 redistricting is just about over pending some court cases. How about just for fun you and I do a bipartisan independent commission on all 50 states to get the best / most fair and proportional maps? (Obviously my 2 Ohio maps were pretty much a joke but now that I've tested and spent serious time on that DRA website I think I've got it down pretty good.)

    Rules: We'll keep the states we can jointly agree upon to be fairly officially drawn, like Michigan and Colorado (I assume you agree on those two, plus the 3-ECV states with only 1 district). The rule is to make states as fair and proportional as possible, minimize gerrymandering, and minimize ugly districts.

    We'll see what we come up with as a bi-partisan team and what the final numbers in terms of house seats... using the 2016-2020 data (I'd encourage that 2016 is more the equilibrium over 2020 because covid will become less and less of a talking-issue over time. The equilibrium is, imo, a roughly D+2.0 popular vote nationally.

    I'll go ahead and approve your 8-7 Ohio map. I'll approve the Massachusetts 9-0 map too for instance because as you pointed out you can't draw a (R) seat without an ugly gerrymander. We just need to work on the ugly / disproportionate ones or where-ever there is a challenge. I approve Arizona unless you don't.

    You can keep ahead on with drawing states like Texas and release a final map when you're done and we can negotiate and fix states that need work.

    I've just spent this afternoon and evening doing Illinois. Will Hunting

  24. #299
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    21,119
    Illinois:






    Democrats: 10
    Republicans: 7

    Tossup seats: None (most compe ive seat is R+8 in IL-14, which would only flip in a blue wave year. Driftless area in NW IL is trending red.)
    VRA compliance: Yes (IL-03 majority Hispanic; IL-05 majority Black)


    IL-01: Downtown Chicago & adjacent
    IL-02: South Chicago suburbs
    IL-03: Hispanic majority SW Chicago
    IL-04: Outer Chicago city limits
    IL-05: Chicago's South Side (over 72 percent Black)
    IL-06: Includes Joliet, Kankakee, Rantoul, rural Eastern Illinois
    IL-07: Includes Urbana-Champaign, Springfield, Effingham, rural Southeast Illinois
    IL-08: DuPage County Chicago suburbs
    IL-09: Featuring Aurora, Chicagoland's West-southwest suburbs
    IL-10: Lake County and rich, largely white upscale lakeside areas of North Chicago metro
    IL-11: Featuring Chicagoland's West-northwest suburbs
    IL-12: West Downstate Illinois
    IL-13: Featuring Chicagoland's Northern suburbs
    IL-14: District for the White Working Class region of Northern Illinois between Chicago and Rockford
    IL-15: Includes Rockford and all of the Driftless Region of Illinois
    IL-16: Includes Peoria and Bloomington-Normal
    IL-17: Farthest downstate Illinois; includes Marion and East St. Louis area


    Next map I'll try to do a Wisconsin 5-3 without gerrymandering to make it fairly proportional, but that will be hard. There's no laws saying you can't crack Madison right? Is Milwaukee black enough / protected by VRA?
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 03-05-2022 at 01:10 AM.

  25. #300
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,219
    We'll see. The NC legislature appealed to the SCOTUS that the state court system shouldn't be allowed to override state legislatures. The SCOTUS is fresh off hearing and voting in favor of the Alabama GOP case. That NC case, if the SCOTUS were to rule in favor of the NC GOP, would be an enormous staré decisis going forward and a devastating blow to state courts and Democrats in general across many states, especially critical states, including Ohio, Florida (to an extent), and possibly the state legislature's case in PA as well, even though the PA map isn't really that bad.

    It's crunch time in the redistricting cycle right now and the victor of the 2021 redistricting cycle will hinge on getting either Kavanaugh (likely) or Roberts (less likely) to join the 4 solid R's in the SCOTUS to rule in favor of the GOP in the North Carolina case.
    aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand SCOTUS made quick work of the NC GOP's re ed appeal that basically wanted to end federalism as we know it.

    Denied.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •