Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 76 to 100 of 101
  1. #76
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    75,451
    VA rolled over, but IL took off the gloves


  2. #77
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    VA rolled over, but IL took off the gloves

    Illinois is actually a crappy job. It left 3 districts unnecessarily vulnerable. Hopefully it adjusts the map.

  3. #78
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    The California map is secretly a brilliant gerrymander. By 2024 it could very well be 48-4 or even 49-3.

  4. #79
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Winehole23 Millennial_Messiah a few key states have maps that we know more about.

    I'll start with AZ which is probably 80-90% complete:



    The 4 districts that were safe for either party (3, 4, 5, 7) stay mostly intact, with the one big exception being that Yavapai County is getting moved from AZ-04 to AZ-01, making it a Trump +8 district that only getting redder, thus making it unlikely for O'Halleran to hold it in 2022.

    At the same time it also creates 3 compe ive districts (2, 6, 8) but the wrinkle is that all 3 of those districts are trending blue. By 2024 this will probably be a map that's 6-3 in favor of Democrats.

    As best as I can tell, the Republicans on this commission were too focused on making AZ-01 redder and the Democrats got a lot of concessions from them in exchange for it. Similar to 2010, I think the Dems won the redistricting battle in AZ.

  5. #80
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Post Count
    133,685
    Winehole23 Millennial_Messiah a few key states have maps that we know more about.

    I'll start with AZ which is probably 80-90% complete:



    The 4 districts that were safe for either party (3, 4, 5, 7) stay mostly intact, with the one big exception being that Yavapai County is getting moved from AZ-04 to AZ-01, making it a Trump +8 district that only getting redder, thus making it unlikely for O'Halleran to hold it in 2022.

    At the same time it also creates 3 compe ive districts (2, 6, 8) but the wrinkle is that all 3 of those districts are trending blue. By 2024 this will probably be a map that's 6-3 in favor of Democrats.

    As best as I can tell, the Republicans on this commission were too focused on making AZ-01 redder and the Democrats got a lot of concessions from them in exchange for it. Similar to 2010, I think the Dems won the redistricting battle in AZ.
    Rn Watkins announced his run for AZ-01.

  6. #81
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    The CA commission has released district "visualizations" that still need to be population adjusted but they give us a good idea about what's going on (all the missing districts are safe Democrat districts):



    The Dems did a great job rigging this commission if this map holds. Biggest examples:

    -Drew Nunes into a Biden +5 district (22) by taking the red parts of his district and stuffing them into McCarthy's district
    -Completely gutted McClintock's district beyond any recognition
    -Gave Young Kim an unwinnable Biden +17 district by moving Yorma Linda into Katie Porter's district
    -Made Issa's district (50) a Biden +6 district by giving it a goofy looking arm that touches the Pacific
    -Unnecessarily gave Steele's district (48) UC Irvine.

    This map basically has 13 districts that are winnable for Republicans in a best case scenario for them, and virtually all of them are in areas that are rapidly trending left.

    It isn't going to have instant payoff for Dems in 2022, but by 2024 I think only 4-5 Republican house reps tops will survive in CA under this map.

  7. #82
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Rn Watkins announced his run for AZ-01.
    There's also Wendy Rogers (a bat crazy state senator in AZ who's a member of the Othkeepers) who might run in AZ-01 as well.

    That primary is going to be a cluster .

  8. #83
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Finally, the lead Republican commission in Michigan (inexplicably) proposed a Biden 8-5 map. Hopefully the Dems fast track it.


  9. #84
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    Dems are definitely doing well so far in redistricting, better than most people expected. Is there a chance they retain the House next year? Look at the Illinois map that LTE just discussed on youtube.... they drew out 2 GOP seats.

  10. #85
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    Finally, the lead Republican commission in Michigan (inexplicably) proposed a Biden 8-5 map. Hopefully the Dems fast track it.

    Independent commission in Michigan, but that is definitely skewed left, since MI-04 in this case would be a completely I-96 corridor district which is full of cities, from east of Lansing to Grand Rapids. That's got to be blue. I-94 is accounted for in MI-06 and MI-07, also blue..

    I TOLD you the Dems should do something about tapping into Battle Creek/Kalamazoo (MI-06 in this case) and Grand Rapids (MI-04 in the new map) and they did... the only thing they could have done better is tried to draw Muskegon/Muskegon Heights into a more favorable district, but they can't have everything I guess.

  11. #86
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Dems are definitely doing well so far in redistricting, better than most people expected. Is there a chance they retain the House next year? Look at the Illinois map that LTE just discussed on youtube.... they drew out 2 GOP seats.
    The Illinois map is a sloppy gerrymander that leaves 3 Dem seats unnecessarily vulnerable. Hopefully they clean it up with amendments.

    Unlikely the Dems keep the house next year just because the environment wonít be favorable for them, but I think in 2024 they have a >50% chance of winning it back, especially if the GOP collapse in California continues.

    Also LTE is a dumbass who isnít any more qualified to be talking about elections than you or me. The fact heís talking about the IL map like itís a good job proves my point.

  12. #87
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Independent commission in Michigan, but that is definitely skewed left, since MI-04 in this case would be a completely I-96 corridor district which is full of cities, from east of Lansing to Grand Rapids. That's got to be blue. I-94 is accounted for in MI-06 and MI-07, also blue..

    I TOLD you the Dems should do something about tapping into Battle Creek/Kalamazoo (MI-06 in this case) and Grand Rapids (MI-04 in the new map) and they did... the only thing they could have done better is tried to draw Muskegon/Muskegon Heights into a more favorable district, but they can't have everything I guess.
    Itís an independent commission but one of the GOP commissioners is a dumbass who submitted this mapÖit splits Lansing into 3 different districts

  13. #88
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Will Hunting ?

    FYI Winehole23 I doubt this map ends up getting passed because of how much public outrage thereís been to it, but in the end weíll probably just get a 6-5 Virginia map when it could have been 8-3 if the Virginia Dems didnít idiotically disarm themselves.

  14. #89
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    The Illinois map is a sloppy gerrymander that leaves 3 Dem seats unnecessarily vulnerable. Hopefully they clean it up with amendments.

    Unlikely the Dems keep the house next year just because the environment won’t be favorable for them, but I think in 2024 they have a >50% chance of winning it back, especially if the GOP collapse in California continues.

    Also LTE is a dumbass who isn’t any more qualified to be talking about elections than you or me. The fact he’s talking about the IL map like it’s a good job proves my point.
    But I thought that's what both parties are trying to prevent? Too much turnover each 2 years. Shoring up in bents and eliminating or at least greatly reducing "swing" seats, that goes both for red and blue seats.

  15. #90
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    But I thought that's what both parties are trying to prevent? Too much turnover each 2 years. Shoring up in bents and eliminating or at least greatly reducing "swing" seats, that goes both for red and blue seats.
    That’s correct but the CA map is basically drawn to look like a fair map for 2022 but completely collapse for Republicans in 2024. Arizona is another state where 2024 has the potential to go from a 4-5 map to a 6-3 map.

    there’s also several key states (PA, WI and less likely OH) where there’s gonna be court drawn maps that have swing districts. 2010 was a fluke in the sense that control of redistricting was so one sided that the GOP basically eliminated swing districts for 2012, this year I think it’s going to be more balanced (it already has been).

  16. #91
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    That’s correct but the CA map is basically drawn to look like a fair map for 2022 but completely collapse for Republicans in 2024. Arizona is another state where 2024 has the potential to go from a 4-5 map to a 6-3 map.

    there’s also several key states (PA, WI and less likely OH) where there’s gonna be court drawn maps that have swing districts. 2010 was a fluke in the sense that control of redistricting was so one sided that the GOP basically eliminated swing districts for 2012, this year I think it’s going to be more balanced (it already has been).
    I saw on LTE that the Ohio map the Democrats there drew but it got thrown out for obvious reasons.

  17. #92
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    I saw on LTE that the Ohio map the Democrats there drew but it got thrown out for obvious reasons.
    It was stupid for the Dems to propose a Dem friendly map. They should have proposed like a 5-10 map that was still R favored but wouldnít be as R favored as the map the Republicans are gonna draw. That would actually put the Ohio GOP in a bind.

    Stop watching LTE that guy is a joke

  18. #93
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    It was stupid for the Dems to propose a Dem friendly map. They should have proposed like a 5-10 map that was still R favored but wouldn’t be as R favored as the map the Republicans are gonna draw. That would actually put the Ohio GOP in a bind.

    Stop watching LTE that guy is a joke
    I always thought he was a fair and moderate democrat but recently it seems he's shifted to the right in the past couple months. He now believes that NH and GA will be re-taken by the GOP, but makes no sense because I don't think Herschel Walker has a snowball's chance in to beat out Warnock. With NH it is different, it all depends on if Sununu decides to run for senator, if he does he will win, if not the GOP will lose. I also don't know why he has PA staying red with Toomey retiring and nobody yet running there on the GOP side.

  19. #94
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    Iowa likely passing a map similar to what they have now.

    Wisconsin state leg has proposed a map that Evers will for sure veto, while Evers himself has proposed a map that isn't great for Dems either, Wisconsin's voter concentration in Madison/Milwaukee with ruby red suburbs is just geography that basically locks the Dems out of a majority in either state leg chamber absent a massive demographic shift.

  20. #95
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    Iowa likely passing a map similar to what they have now.

    Wisconsin state leg has proposed a map that Evers will for sure veto, while Evers himself has proposed a map that isn't great for Dems either, Wisconsin's voter concentration in Madison/Milwaukee with ruby red suburbs is just geography that basically locks the Dems out of a majority in either state leg chamber absent a massive demographic shift.
    Menominee county is extremely blue too but it's small. But yeah, Wisconsin's demography seems a lot more like Missouri than any other state to me imo. 2 solid blue cities surrounded by nothing but red. I wouldn't be surprised if Wisconsin goes the route of Iowa and becomes a lean red state on the presidential level, too... soon.

    I don't see a state like PA going the same way... because Philly's collar suburbs are very populated and have gotten quite blue. Dems are very lucky that has happened.

  21. #96
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    75,451
    NC went to Trump 49.9%. Reportedly, the GOP might get 70%+ of the congressional delegation.


  22. #97
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    NC went to Trump 49.9%. Reportedly, the GOP might get 70%+ of the congressional delegation.

    That backfires on the GOP in 6 years. Those pink/salmon districts could go blue in a blue wave year. 2026 is shaping up to be a blue wave year IMO, assuming the Dems lose the WH and Senate by 2024.

  23. #98
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    20,582
    NC went to Trump 49.9%. Reportedly, the GOP might get 70%+ of the congressional delegation.

    Pretty risky map. The 4th circuit is Dem leaning and is where a VRA lawsuit would probably end up.

  24. #99
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    19,527
    Florida GOP released a map that favors the Dems and creates a lot of highly compe ive seats. Definitely a major shocker.

    NC countered Illinois by releasing a map that draws out a Democrat completely and creates another R+ possible seat, but right now the Dems have the house majority and have netted about even in the redistricting process so far. At this rate there aren't that many big states left to draw out (D) seats, so the Dems might actually retain the House in 2022 even in the event of a "red tide" year.

  25. #100
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    75,451
    It's a shame Dems are afraid to exercise majority rule, their opponents aren't.


Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •