Page 5 of 15 FirstFirst 123456789 ... LastLast
Results 101 to 125 of 371
  1. #101
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    79,243
    Gerrymandering in four states including GA could very well throw the House of Representatives to (R)s next year.

    Which isn't to say it couldn't be much worse than that.


  2. #102
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    MICHIGAN MAP OFFICIAL!!! Will Hunting

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...maps/michigan/


    On the surface it looks like the Dems might have picked up a seat in redistricting and losing a representative... but nope. They cleverly drew out both of the Impeachment reps (Meijer into a Dem district = a narrow plot of land including both all of Grand Rapids metro and all of Muskegon metro = D+3; and Upton into a district with a much more popular pro-Trump in bent) and gave the Republicans an advantage in districts including both Flint and Lansing. Likely 8-5 or at worst 7-6 GOP majority in Michigan coming, with a Democrat taking MI-03 and both Meijer and Upton OUSTED!!! Yay.....
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 12-31-2021 at 01:42 AM.

  3. #103
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    MICHIGAN MAP OFFICIAL!!! Will Hunting

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...maps/michigan/


    On the surface it looks like the Dems might have picked up a seat in redistricting and losing a representative... but nope. They cleverly drew out both of the Impeachment reps (Meijer into a Dem district = a narrow plot of land including both all of Grand Rapids metro and all of Muskegon metro = D+3; and Upton into a district with a much more popular pro-Trump in bent) and gave the Republicans an advantage in districts including both Flint and Lansing. Likely 8-5 or at worst 7-6 GOP majority in Michigan coming, with a Democrat taking MI-03 and both Meijer and Upton OUSTED!!! Yay.....
    The fivethirtyeight rating system is ed, and Kildee (Flint) is a regular over performer in Flint, as is Slotkin in Lansing. Both of those districts are shown by 538 as lean R districts even though Biden won both of them.

  4. #104
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    Also seems likely the Ohio and North Carolina Supreme Court both overturn the GOP drawn maps. Unclear if the courts will instruct the state leg to redraw the maps themselves or if we’ll have court drawn maps.

  5. #105
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    The fivethirtyeight rating system is ed, and Kildee (Flint) is a regular over performer in Flint, as is Slotkin in Lansing. Both of those districts are shown by 538 as lean R districts even though Biden won both of them.
    They are definitely trending red (not Flint city proper or central/ East Lansing where MSU is, but the rest of the districts) however and 2022 has red wave written all over it. Even beyond that, MI will be a lean red state and that will be a solid 8-5 R map, maybe 7-6 R in a blue wave year or 9-4 R in a red wave year.

    What I don't get is Georgia, why they think they're still a red state when they're not. They're going to be full on Virginia part deux in ten years or less.

    Drawing RINO Meijer into a narrow stretch of land that encompasses all of Grand Rapids and all of Muskegon/Muskegon Heights (basically I-96 West MI corridor) and very sparsely populated area in between, is just fantastic.

  6. #106
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    They are definitely trending red (not Flint city proper or central/ East Lansing where MSU is, but the rest of the districts) however and 2022 has red wave written all over it. Even beyond that, MI will be a lean red state and that will be a solid 8-5 R map, maybe 7-6 R in a blue wave year or 9-4 R in a red wave year.

    What I don't get is Georgia, why they think they're still a red state when they're not. They're going to be full on Virginia part deux in ten years or less.

    Drawing RINO Meijer into a narrow stretch of land that encompasses all of Grand Rapids and all of Muskegon/Muskegon Heights (basically I-96 West MI corridor) and very sparsely populated area in between, is just fantastic.
    "Michigan will be lean red"

    Michigan's fastest growing areas (the Detroit suburbs) are trending left, while its areas that are trending red are losing the most population (rural areas).



    The existing Michigan map was an 8-6 Trump map and now it's a 7-6 Biden map. They would gain 1.6 seats in a neutral environment; even if they lose seats next year because it's a red wave year that doesn't change the fact the map got better for them.

  7. #107
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    FYI Winehole23 I doubt this map ends up getting passed because of how much public outrage there’s been to it, but in the end we’ll probably just get a 6-5 Virginia map when it could have been 8-3 if the Virginia Dems didn’t idiotically disarm themselves.
    As I predicted.

    Likely 6-5 map next year with Luria's seat swinging back to the Dems in 2024 so it's 7-4 again.

    Still really ing annoying that the Dems threw away both an 8-3 congressional map and the opportunity to rig a permanent majority in the VA state leg.

  8. #108
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    "Michigan will be lean red"

    Michigan's fastest growing areas (the Detroit suburbs) are trending left, while its areas that are trending red are losing the most population (rural areas).



    The existing Michigan map was an 8-6 Trump map and now it's a 7-6 Biden map. They would gain 1.6 seats in a neutral environment; even if they lose seats next year because it's a red wave year that doesn't change the fact the map got better for them.
    We'll see. My prediction is that MI will be to the right of both WI and PA in 2024. Michiganders outside of Detroit are very pro gun and pro freedom. Wisconsinites... don't really care. Except they care about football.

    Whitmer is going to lose re-election THIS YEAR and you're going to be proven wrong. WE ALL HATE HER.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 01-01-2022 at 12:42 AM.

  9. #109
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    Need more updates on this subject.

  10. #110
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    Need more updates on this subject.
    A lot of updates, most of them are good for Democrats.

    The national environment in 2022 makes it so the Democrats are going to have a very tough time holding the house no matter what this year, but unlike 10 years ago when the Democrats couldn't win the house back in 2012 because of how rigged the maps were, I think house control in 2024 is virtually a toss-up or even lean D because of how redistricting is shaping up. As the rate we're going, there will actually be more Biden-won districts than we did before.

    New York - The Republicans on the redistricting committee are cutting off their nose to spite their face. The Dems on the committee submitted an extremely weak gerrymander and if the Republicans simply voted for it the NY state leg would need a supermajority to overrule it and draw its own map; since the committee hasn't been able to agree on a bipartisan map, I'm pretty sure the NY state leg's ability to draw its own map becomes a lot easier. If the state leg is drawing the map, expect an absolutely ruthless gerrymander. The fact Max Rose has already announced his candidacy for NY-11, a district he'll only compete in if it gets carved up from where it is now, tells me that Hochul is planning to go medieval.

    North Carolina / Ohio - These are easily the two most ruthless GOP drawn maps so far, but in each case there's either a Dem state SC majority (NC) or an anti-gerrymandering state SC majority (only 3 out of 7 justices in Ohio are Dems, but the chief justice is the swing vote and is very anti-gerrymandering). Both maps are currently being challenged and the oral argument that took place in Ohio was pretty clear that at a minimum they'll need to redraw the Cincinnati area to create another safe D seat. The North Carolina map that passed was 10 R - 4 D, with one D district being very tenuous. IMO the end result we'll get in NC is a 9 R - 5 D map, with the slim possibility of 8 R - 5 D - 1 toss-up seat.

    Missouri - There was a lot of talk about Cleaver's Kansas City district possibly getting cracked but that won't happen. The proposed map is still 6-2 Republican Democrat, and it even has potential to be 5-3 later in the decade if the St. Louis suburbs trend a little more blue.

    Kentucky - There was talk they would crack Louisville and go for a 6-0 map, especially with Yarmuth retiring, but that's also not happening. The map keeps Louisville together and will stay 5-1, but it does crack the existing 6th congressional district that's compe ive for Dems in a wave year by splintering Frankfurt from Lexington.

    Tennessee - They haven't released maps yet, but the Tennessee GOP is taking the gloves off. Nashville is going to get cracked, and probably into 3 or 4 different districts, Jim Cooper is basically ed.

    Alabama / Louisiana - There's going to be (or there already are) lawsuits over whether a 2nd majority/plurality black district should be created in each state, but they're unlikely to succeed. AL and LA are under the 11th and 5th circuit, respectively, and those are the 2 most partisan conservative circuits in the country.

    Mississippi - There was a chance the Mississippi state leg would get cute and draw a majority black district that was only lean Democrat and could turn red this decade but that's not happening; they kept Bennie Thompson's district mostly intact and it's safe D.

    Wisconsin - If the state supreme court accepts Evers' "minimal change" map, it's about as good as the Dems could hope for; if the state SC accepts the maps the state leg passed, a 6-2 congressional delegation in WI is pretty much locked in.

    Florida - This one I'm most confused by. The Florida State Senate released a map that creates 16 Trump districts vs. 12 Biden districts, when it could easily have drawn a 19-9 map or even a 20-8 map. The funniest part is that in 2016, this map would have actually produced MORE Hillary-won districts than Trump-won districts.


  11. #111
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    If the Dems didn't moronically disarm themselves by creating commissions in VA, CO, WA & CA, I think the GOP would have been agreeable to a federal ban on gerrymandering because of how many seats we would have picked up. It's probably ~10 more house seats we would gain if we could draw partisan maps in those states. Even though the CA commission is rigged with Democrats, the map is still a lot more mild than what a partisan state leg map looks like.

    Even in Maryland, the selfish boomer Dems screwed us. Steny Hoyer threw a hissyfit over his district getting slightly more red on a map that drew Andy Harris out and if not for him the MD Dems could have drawn an 8-0 map where every district was Biden +19 or better.

  12. #112
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    If the Dems didn't moronically disarm themselves by creating commissions in VA, CO, WA & CA, I think the GOP would have been agreeable to a federal ban on gerrymandering because of how many seats we would have picked up. It's probably ~10 more house seats we would gain if we could draw partisan maps in those states. Even though the CA commission is rigged with Democrats, the map is still a lot more mild than what a partisan state leg map looks like.

    Even in Maryland, the selfish boomer Dems screwed us. Steny Hoyer threw a hissyfit over his district getting slightly more red on a map that drew Andy Harris out and if not for him the MD Dems could have drawn an 8-0 map where every district was Biden +19 or better.
    7-1 is plenty fair in Maryland. In fact, 6-2 would be fair... that map is already gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats.
    Just like with Kentucky... not cracking Louisville three ways to create a fully GOP House there... a state with no representation that isn't like an 80-20 majority state like Vermont is bad faith partisan politics.

    Illinois is bad... and it's not going to get overturned. The V.R.A. is definitely a blue-partisan trump card that the red team doesn't have an equivalent to in court. Remember IL still has about 40 percent of the population that is reliably GOP and the new map is 14-3 Democrat.

    I mean look at a state like Massachusetts. If states like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama have to have at least 1 blue district by way of the VRA forcing a majority black district then shouldn't a state like MA have a majority rural district (it's a pretty fair counterpart to the VRA, since farmers/agriculture should be protected as well if urban blacks are a protected class) instead of having 9-0 all safe dark blue districts in a state that consistently votes at least 30% republican? It's pretty bad for the rural peeps to have zero chance at representation in a state where they are 30-35 percent of the population.

    Ohio and NC are bad... drawing out at least one if not more Dems in each state. But they may get overturned. Especially NC, which has a high black population and a rich black heritage.

    Missouri almost went for Obama in 2008... it's not trending blue. It is trending red like IA and WI. The western STL suburbs are white and not particularly liberal; it's the eastern STL IL suburbs that are more diverse and more liberal. 6-2 GOP makes sense. Now if they crack KC then it's gerrymandering.

    As for IA it looks okay for Dems right now but pretty soon it will be 4-0 like Arkansas. Wisconsin 6-2 doesn't represent the population % but then again it's one of the few states that is like that without gerrymandering. All the blue majority counties are pretty much in Milwaukee and Madison. You can't draw a 3rd lean D district without gerrymandering, drawing a "cheese strip" between Milwaukee and Madison some how.

    Cracking Nashville TN isn't the worst thing. Nashville is still a city but it's one of the whiter and more conservative ones in the south and in the country with a rich right-wing history. They will not crack Memphis because that's black majority and D + 53. It's not like Nashville is black majority. TN is a ruby red state. IL getting 2 more Dems (drawing out multiple GOP leaning seats) with no contest or courts should be countered some how.

    Florida ones seem fair for now. It wouldn't be fair to draw a 19-9 or 20-8 GOP map. The state isn't red enough. 16 to 12 is an appropriate representation of the population.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 01-10-2022 at 02:06 PM.

  13. #113
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    7-1 is plenty fair in Maryland. In fact, 6-2 would be fair... that map is already gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats.
    Just like with Kentucky... not cracking Louisville three ways to create a fully GOP House there... a state with no representation that isn't like an 80-20 majority state like Vermont is bad faith partisan politics.

    Illinois is bad... and it's not going to get overturned. The V.R.A. is definitely a blue-partisan trump card that the red team doesn't have an equivalent to in court.

    Ohio and NC are bad... drawing out at least one if not more Dems in each state. But they may get overturned. Especially NC, which has a high black population and a rich black heritage.

    Missouri almost went for Obama in 2008... it's not trending blue. It is trending red like IA and WI. The western STL suburbs are white and not particularly liberal; it's the eastern STL IL suburbs that are more diverse and more liberal. 6-2 GOP makes sense. Now if they crack KC then it's gerrymandering.

    As for IA it looks okay for Dems right now but pretty soon it will be 4-0 like Arkansas. Wisconsin 6-2 doesn't represent the population % but then again it's one of the few states that is like that without gerrymandering. All the blue majority counties are pretty much in Milwaukee and Madison. You can't draw a 3rd lean D district without gerrymandering, drawing a "cheese strip" between Milwaukee and Madison some how.

    Cracking Nashville TN isn't the worst thing. Nashville is still a city but it's one of the more conservative ones in the country with a rich GOP history. They will not crack Memphis because that's black majority and D + 53. It's not like Nashville is black majority. TN is a ruby red state. IL getting 2 more Dems with no contest or courts should be countered some how. Remember IL still has about 40 percent of the population that is reliably GOP and the new map is 14-3 Democrat.

    Florida ones seem fair for now. It wouldn't be fair to draw a 19-9 or 20-8 GOP map. The state isn't red enough. 16 to 12 is an appropriate representation of the population.
    I'm not saying the map in Maryland isn't gerrymandered, it definitely is, I'm just saying it could be gerrymandered more to help Democrats. There's no reason to play fair or leave meat on the bone when the GOP isn't going to do the same.

    The Illinois, California and New York maps could all be more Dem-favored without the VRA. The VRA definitely helps Dems in southern states and other GOP controlled states, but it restricts the kind of maps Dems can draw in their own states.

    Iowa won't be 4-0. The state as a whole is trending red, but the Des Moines area is trending blue. Axne is also an overperformer.

    Cracking Nashville is definitely gerrymandering. Davidson County has 716k people and each congressional district in TN will have around 768k; there's no reason to crack Davison county other than wanting to give the GOP another seat. It's also a Biden +25% county; muh rich GOP history doesn't change the fact that taking a Biden +25% county and unnecessarily cracking it into 4 different districts is gerrymandering.

    No one's saying Illinois isn't gerrymandered but it's intellectually dishonest to pretend that TN is only being gerrymandered to "counter" IL. If the GOP only gerrymandered to counter when Democrats do it, then they'd actually be pushing for a federal ban on gerrymandering rather than obstructing it.

    Literally all of these states:
    TX: If MSA / communities of interest aren't cracked, a fair map would have 1 blue El Paso districts, 5 blue DFW districts, 5 blue Houston area districts, 2 blue SA districts, 2 blue Austin area districts and 2 blue RGV seats. 17 seats (and that's conservative really, the Republican geography in TX is horrible because of how concentrated their votes are in rural areas) vs. the 13 seats in the map they drew.
    AL: A fair map would have 2 majority or plurality black districts, not 1.
    LA: A fair map would have 2 majority or plurality black districts, not 1.
    GA: A fair map would be 7-7, the map they passed is 9-5 R.
    NC: A fair map would be 7-7 or at least 8-6 R since the Dem geography there isn't great, but it definitely shouldn't be 10-4.
    OH: Fair map would be 1 safe D Cincinnati district, 2 safe/likely D Columbus area districts, 1 lean D Akron/Kent/Youngstown district, 2 safe/likely D Cleveland area districts, and a tossup Toledo district; 6.5 Dem seats total. The map they passed has 2 Dem seats and 2 compe ive seats.
    OK: Oklahoma County's population is within 1% of what each congressional district's population in Oklahoma is; there's no logical reason to crack it the way the state leg did. It's perfectly set up to be its own compe ive congressional district.
    UT: A fair map would be 3-1 with the SLC area having a Biden district; instead they cracked SLC 4 different ways.
    SC: A fair map would have at least 2 blue districts. Arguably 2 Dem seats and a compe ive seat, but at least 2 Dem seats.
    AR: There's no way to draw a blue district, but a fair map would have a compe ive toss-up district.

  14. #114
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    I mean look at a state like Massachusetts. If states like Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama have to have at least 1 blue district by way of the VRA forcing a majority black district then shouldn't a state like MA have a majority rural district (it's a pretty fair counterpart to the VRA, since farmers/agriculture should be protected as well if urban blacks are a protected class) instead of having 9-0 all safe dark blue districts in a state that consistently votes at least 30% republican? It's pretty bad for the rural peeps to have zero chance at representation in a state where they are 30-35 percent of the population.
    Not sure why you think there's this bastion of rural Republican voters in Mass, but it's virtually impossible to draw a Trump district there. It's an incredibly geneous state. this district which pretty much selects the most Republican precincts across the state is only Trump +9 and it's obviously not feasible; there's no way to create an R leaning district in MA without some ery.



    Meanwhile, there's plenty of ways to draw black districts in the south that don't look ridiculous. This would be 2 majority black districts in Louisiana:


  15. #115
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    Not sure why you think there's this bastion of rural Republican voters in Mass, but it's virtually impossible to draw a Trump district there. It's an incredibly geneous state. this district which pretty much selects the most Republican precincts across the state is only Trump +9 and it's obviously not feasible; there's no way to create an R leaning district in MA without some ery.



    Meanwhile, there's plenty of ways to draw black districts in the south that don't look ridiculous. This would be 2 majority black districts in Louisiana:

    Where do you get those tools from? Is it freeware? I'd like to play and fiddle around with all that.

  16. #116
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    Where do you get those tools from? Is it freeware? I'd like to play and fiddle around with all that.
    Yep it's totally free, you just need to create an account.

    https://davesredistricting.org/

  17. #117
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    Not sure why you think there's this bastion of rural Republican voters in Mass, but it's virtually impossible to draw a Trump district there. It's an incredibly geneous state. this district which pretty much selects the most Republican precincts across the state is only Trump +9 and it's obviously not feasible; there's no way to create an R leaning district in MA without some ery.
    That " ery" is an example of how gerrymandering can actually be a good thing in order to get more fair representation. Wisconsin is another example. Even with the rightward shift, the state should be 5-3 GOP and not 6-2.

    Yep it's totally free, you just need to create an account.

    https://davesredistricting.org/
    Thank you.

  18. #118
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    That " ery" is an example of how gerrymandering can actually be a good thing in order to get more fair representation. Wisconsin is another example. Even with the rightward shift, the state should be 5-3 GOP and not 6-2.
    There's a balance in terms of how far you should be going to create partisan fairness at the expense of sensible maps that keep communities with common interests together / don't look ridiculous. Do your best to draw a Trump-won district in MA, the only way you can do it is with a completely non-sensible map. Make sure you select "President 2020" as your data set for MA, if you select the composite data set it'll show a much redder map than what MA actually has because it overweighs the governor elections.

  19. #119
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    There's a balance in terms of how far you should be going to create partisan fairness at the expense of sensible maps that keep communities with common interests together / don't look ridiculous. Do your best to draw a Trump-won district in MA, the only way you can do it is with a completely non-sensible map. Make sure you select "President 2020" as your data set for MA, if you select the composite data set it'll show a much redder map than what MA actually has because it overweighs the governor elections.
    Will do. Yeah the governor elections in those type of states really don't indicate partisanship of the state per se. You look at states like Louisiana which consistantly have a Dem governor.

    Yeah, Charlie Baker is a RINO because he has to be. I don't get why he's retiring, though. He was popular there. Just like the dude in Vermont, oh I forget his name. I could google it but I'm too lazy. Similar situation. Massachusetts is the number 1 state in the country, possibly in the world, for education and is full of very intelligent human beings, so they vote policy over party, hence why guys like Baker and Scott Brown had a chance. Heck Mitt Romney was governor there for awhile, even though he's a twit.

  20. #120
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    Will do. Yeah the governor elections in those type of states really don't indicate partisanship of the state per se. You look at states like Louisiana which consistantly have a Dem governor.

    Yeah, Charlie Baker is a RINO because he has to be. I don't get why he's retiring, though. He was popular there. Just like the dude in Vermont, oh I forget his name. I could google it but I'm too lazy. Similar situation. Massachusetts is the number 1 state in the country, possibly in the world, for education and is full of very intelligent human beings, so they vote policy over party, hence why guys like Baker and Scott Brown had a chance. Heck Mitt Romney was governor there for awhile, even though he's a twit.
    You're thinking of Phil Scott in VT who definitely is a RINO. Baker isn't really a RINO, he's just a socially liberal Rockefeller Republican who gets elected to serve as a check and balance on the ultra liberal state leg.

    I've heard he's retiring because he's tired of dealing with the MA GOP re s who want to primary him with a Trump-style candidate who'd lose by 30 in a general. The MA GOP is really stupid.

  21. #121
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    So far the Michigan commission has done the best job in terms of creating a fair map. It has 4 safe D seats, 4 safe R seats, and 5 ultra-compe ive seats that are up for grabs every 2 years. It doesn't have any of the 57% to 42% type of districts Where 40+% of the population has no shot at representation.

  22. #122
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    So far the Michigan commission has done the best job in terms of creating a fair map. It has 4 safe D seats, 4 safe R seats, and 5 ultra-compe ive seats that are up for grabs every 2 years. It doesn't have any of the 57% to 42% type of districts Where 40+% of the population has no shot at representation.
    I have it 6-4-3 in favor of the GOP. Flint, Lansing, and GR-Muskegon district go to whoever is having a wave year.

    MI will likely be 8-5 or even 9-4 GOP in 2022/24, but has the potential to have a Democrat majority in future years.

    Source

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/




    You're thinking of Phil Scott in VT who definitely is a RINO. Baker isn't really a RINO, he's just a socially liberal Rockefeller Republican who gets elected to serve as a check and balance on the ultra liberal state leg.

    I've heard he's retiring because he's tired of dealing with the MA GOP re s who want to primary him with a Trump-style candidate who'd lose by 30 in a general. The MA GOP is really stupid.
    Indeed that is a very dumb strategy in MA. In a rust belt or corn belt or southern state, yeah. In MA? naw.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 01-10-2022 at 07:00 PM.

  23. #123
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
    My Team
    Boston Celtics
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    21,130
    I have it 6-4-3 in favor of the GOP. Flint, Lansing, and GR-Muskegon district go to whoever is having a wave year.

    MI will likely be 8-5 or even 9-4 GOP in 2022/24, but has the potential to have a Democrat majority in future years.

    Source

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...maps/michigan/
    The 538 partisan splits are bull .

    - Meijer possibly survives 2022 but no chance he survives in 2024 in a Biden +9 district (that's why 538's ratings are dumb, they have a blue-trending Biden +9 district rated as only D+3).
    - The Lansing district has a great in bent who overperforms and it's slowly trending bluer.
    - The Flint district also has a great in bent but it's definitely trending red long term
    - The Kalamazoo district isn't going blue in 2022 but it shifted left 6 points from 2016 to 2020.
    - Hard to tell with the Macomb County district where it's going long term, but right now it's more or less a toss-up.

  24. #124
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    94,677
    It's a shame Dems are afraid to exercise majority rule
    The Dems OBVIOUSLY do NOT control the Senate with only 48 Senators

    Hilarious to see people say "Dems will lose Senate control in 2022 election". Dems no NOT have control to lose

    Plus, there are Dem Senators who would vote against raising taxes but are silently happy to let Manchin/Sinema do it for them.

  25. #125
    Let's Go Brandon Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Post Count
    20,970
    The 538 partisan splits are bull .

    - Meijer possibly survives 2022 but no chance he survives in 2024 in a Biden +9 district (that's why 538's ratings are dumb, they have a blue-trending Biden +9 district rated as only D+3).
    - The Lansing district has a great in bent who overperforms and it's slowly trending bluer.
    - The Flint district also has a great in bent but it's definitely trending red long term
    - The Kalamazoo district isn't going blue in 2022 but it shifted left 6 points from 2016 to 2020.
    - Hard to tell with the Macomb County district where it's going long term, but right now it's more or less a toss-up.
    I don't agree with you. I've lived in that area for over a year... you haven't. Meijer is one of those guys. Really, just one of those names. Maybe the biggest and most popular name and significance to the state and especially to that specific area. In terms of supermarkets, everyone there goes to Meijer and the Meijer name is practically a religion in GR & Muskegon. Democrat, conservative, doesn't matter. There's no Krogers or really any other compe ion besides Walmart and Aldi in that area (unlike say Detroit which has more compe ion)... everyone and their dog goes to Meijer. It doesn't matter if Meijer ran as a (D) or an (R) or an (I) or anything else, he'd win by double digits. Let's not forget that he also voted to impeach Trump, so he'll win a lot of moderate (D) voters. Most of Michigan, especially those who vote (D) more often than not outside of Detroit city proper, are independent swing voters who vote with the wind more so than anything, I can tell you. All except the far right and far left will vote for Meijer. He's pretty liberal on stuff like weed and Trump but he's conservative economically. I think that appeals pretty well to Grand Rapids and Muskegon, aside from the fact that he's the heir to the throne of the great Frederik Meijer, a legend in GR-Muskegon. It doesn't matter if it's D+3 or D+9, the junior Meijer will win by double digits. But if Trump succeeds in primarying him out, then yes the GOP will most likely lose that district.

    The Lansing district I wouldn't say is trending bluer, it's pretty steady... perhaps the in bent is good but I don't see a scenario in which they survive such a swing district in a 2022 red wave situation. Same for the Flint district. The SW Michigan district you mentioned is pretty ruby red aside from Kalamazoo itself and the small African American town of Benton Harbor which has suffered similar lead pipe water issues in recent years as Flint. It will likely primary-out Upton (who also voted to impeach Trump- --if he doesn't outright retire) and will elect a pro-Trump Republican there.

    Macomb County has been steadily GOP over the years except for electing Obama twice, and is trending right not left.

    I see it 6-4-3 red team with a likely 9-4 in 2022, 8-5 or 9-4 in 2024, and potentially 7-6 or 8-5 in favor of the Dems in 2026 if Biden loses in 2024.

    The Dems OBVIOUSLY do NOT control the Senate with only 48 Senators

    Hilarious to see people say "Dems will lose Senate control in 2022 election". Dems no NOT have control to lose

    Plus, there are Dem Senators who would vote against raising taxes but are silently happy to let Manchin/Sinema do it for them.
    I don't think so. Name names?
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 01-12-2022 at 11:06 AM.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •