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  1. #1
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Precinct-level data getting released today and this redistricting cycle is going to for sure be the most hostile and litigation intensive we've ever seen.

    The Dems are going to get thrashed in states like NC/FL/TX that have complete GOP control, but the Dems are also gonna go medieval in states they control.

    Right now NY is 19-8 and will probably be 22-4 after the Dems pass a map like the one below.

    The x-factor is prob gonna be California. If the Dem state leg rigs the redistricting commission they could easily go from 42-11 to a map that's 45-7.


  2. #2
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Looks like the census data is actually pretty accurate despite COVID / what Wilber Ross was doing.


  3. #3
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    the number of pickups the (R)s need to flip the House is five, correct?

  4. #4
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Looks like the census data is actually pretty accurate despite COVID / what Wilber Ross was doing.

    Total horse , Will. There is no way on God's green America that the census could have effectively and accurately been composed last year, this year, or, next year. But, gov't, in close association with Media will babysit it thru nonetheless, sanctifying the results.

  5. #5
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    the number of pickups the (R)s need to flip the House is five, correct?
    I believe so after the FL-20 special election happens.

  6. #6
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    The Maryland Dems are always ruthless at drawing districts, so I think they carve up Harris's district so the 7-1 map becomes an 8-0 map. Something like this:


  7. #7
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Total horse , Will. There is no way on God's green America that the census could have effectively and accurately been composed last year, this year, or, next year. But, gov't, in close association with Media will babysit it thru nonetheless, sanctifying the results.
    Your generation ran the country into the ground and now people my age aren't having kids.

    Boomer greed is the reason muh white population is going down.

  8. #8
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Your generation ran the country into the ground and now people my age aren't having kids.

    Boomer greed is the reason muh white population is going down.
    Anytime they want it they can come and get it. They won't believe what will happen next---even as it's happening.

  9. #9
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    rural white MAGAboomers who claim California is the state with the population decline issue.


  10. #10
    Real Warrior Warlord23's Avatar
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    Any noteworthy trends for purple states like AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI, NV etc?

  11. #11
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Any noteworthy trends for purple states like AZ, GA, MI, PA, WI, NV etc?
    GA is devastating for the GOP. Only 50.1% non-Hispanic white, and the % of the population in Atlanta was even higher than expected.

    TX/FL appear to be an undercount of urban areas which is bad for Dems because it's their areas getting undercounted but good for Dems in the sense it gave 3 less congressional seats to states under full GOP control.

    Wisconsin is mixed but kinda as expected.

    AZ/NV are similar in that they have rural areas that are growing as fast as their urban areas are growing, which IMO is the reason why they haven't and won't shift left as quickly as states like Colorado/Virginia have.

    This applies to multiple states, but the black belt counties in the south are just getting gutted. Congressional districts like GA-02 and NC-01 are eventually gonna lose VRA protection because of black population decline.

  12. #12
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    GA is devastating for the GOP. Only 50.1% non-Hispanic white, and the % of the population in Atlanta was even higher than expected.

    TX/FL appear to be an undercount of urban areas which is bad for Dems because it's their areas getting undercounted but good for Dems in the sense it gave 3 less congressional seats to states under full GOP control.

    Wisconsin is mixed but kinda as expected.

    AZ/NV are similar in that they have rural areas that are growing as fast as their urban areas are growing, which IMO is the reason why they haven't and won't shift left as quickly as states like Colorado/Virginia have.

    This applies to multiple states, but the black belt counties in the south are just getting gutted. Congressional districts like GA-02 and NC-01 are eventually gonna lose VRA protection because of black population decline.
    only because Dems are incapable of majority rule.

    it's their big fault and it might be the proximate entry of the ing full on fascism.

  13. #13
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    the Capitol riot was a nullification riot.

    the example followed should have been the 1861 Congress.

    members voting against certification should not have been seated without a loyalty pledge to the US government and the US Cons ution, plus a disavowal of the bogus narrative that Trump won. denying ministerial certification of an election because your guy lost is bull .

  14. #14
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    five dozen lost election challenges put the lie to skepticism about the result.

  15. #15
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I'll believe it when I see it, but if the NC GOP really goes cuck mode on redistricting and doesn't look at partisan data it's probably 2 extra house seats for the Dems.


  16. #16
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Likely Illinois map. Cuckzinger, Davis and Mary Miller all get put in the same district.


  17. #17
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Meanwhile this or something similar is probably the Texas map. Only goes from 23-13 to 25-13 but it's built to last a whole decade.

    The Dems lose the 34th but pick up an Austin Dem sink district...if the TX GOP doesn't create a sink district for Dems in Austin they risk the map collapsing the way it almost did last year.



  18. #18
    Believe. James White!'s Avatar
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  19. #19
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  20. #20
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  21. #21
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    watching NY to see if something similar happens


  22. #22
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  23. #23
    Believe.
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    so republicans can only win elections by cheating. And they and moan about the elections being stolen, how ironic

  24. #24
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    so republicans can only win elections by cheating. And they and moan about the elections being stolen, how ironic
    every ten years, the politicians choose the voters. and when they get elected in districts designed to be safe from one party or the other, they call it the will of the people.

  25. #25
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    every ten years, the politicians choose the voters. and when they get elected in districts designed to be safe from one party or the other, they call it the will of the people.
    I used to be opposed to Democratic states doing that.

    Given the existential threat from the fascist right, who has zero qualms about doing it, I have changed my mind.

    The reality is the armaggeddonish rhetoric on the right which was hyperbolic for the longest time... gave birth to an actual existential threat by making their voters more and more extreme over time.

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