Why is Ron DeSantis slipping in the polls?
Could his 2024 presidential campaign be over before it even starts?
A 'very bad week' for DeSantis supporters
Trump surged to more than double the Florida governor's support.
NEW:https://theweek.com/ron-desantis/1021983/desantis-campaign-might-be-over-before-it-even-starts
Tracking the 2024 GOP PrimaryDonald
Trump: 54%
Ron DeSantis: 26%
Mike Pence: 7%
Nikki Haley: 4%
Liz Cheney: 3%
Greg Abbott: 1%
Kristi Noem: 1%
Mike Pompeo: 1%
Glenn Youngkin: 1%
Tim Scott: 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy: 1%
Someone Else: 1%*
Mar. 17-19, 2023https://t.co/4CBfh5gVos pic.twitter.com/hk8kgye4qg
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) March 21, 2023
Do you think this will help anything?
It will help people carry firearms without a permit
Which will accomplish what?
I'm starting to think maybe this guy isn't as smart as snacks thinks he is.
Disney locked in a 30 year development deal under the wire.
The new Reedy Creek authority is DeSantis appointees, correct?
Correct, and they showed up to work just to find out they've been precastrated.
What exactly needs to be accomplished?
Snaked knows there will always be crazy people.
We must live with that.
live by the sword, die by the sword
Whitmer: come relocate to Michigan, we have more water / shore line than Florida
Disney: zOmG ItS tOo CoLd
Based Ron
I'm a little disappointed in him for not repealing the 70s-80s era Florida red flag laws sooner though, not gonna lie.
Why move? they got everything they want.
What will this law do?Based Ron
I'm a little disappointed in him for not repealing the 70s-80s era Florida red flag laws sooner though, not gonna lie.
Mr. DeSantis named five appointees to the oversight board on Feb. 27. Three are lawyers who have donated campaign money to Mr. DeSantis. Another is a founder of Moms for Liberty, a group that backed Florida’s law restricting the discussion of sexuality and gender iden y in classrooms. The fifth is the chief executive of a Christian ministry who is known for spreading a baseless theory that tap water could turn people gay.
Bold prediction, Desantis will do better margin wise in California vs. Biden than Biden will in Florida vs. Desantis
I'm thinking Desantis loses CA by 12-14% and wins Florida by around 17-20%.
Desantis is like a "Boston" Rob Mariano type legend from Survivor, he plays to win at all costs. Trump goes with Mike Lindell's QAnon-caliber fake-Christian conspiracy theories and him and his candidates always lose races they should win because of poor turnout.
Trump is your nominee. Project for Trump.
Biden beats Trump with the same exact map, though Trump slightly does better in the electoral college (due to the change from the census, though the census happening in early 2020 and not 2021 really underestimated Florida badly) & in the popular vote, due to Biden's demons being exposed as president and his favorability and job approval being about 20 points worse than 2020.
Trump loses the national popular vote by only 1-2% (the generic vote downstream being slightly more GOP-friendly), the GOP retakes the Senate with about 53-55 total senate seats, the GOP improves to around 230-235 House seats... Trump does better in places like FL/CA/TX/NY than 2020, improves in NC/VA/NM (but not nearly enough to retake Virginia or New Mexico), Colorado goes >20% blue margin, but Trump does marginally worse in GA/AZ and quite a bit worse in PA, NH, and possibly MI. And the election is called for Biden on election night instead of days later, as GA, PA, MI and AZ become callable for Biden the night-of due to the slightly increased margins and better system of counting/distribution of counting compared to 2020. Wisconsin and Nevada aren't callable on election night, but end up going to Biden by razor-thin margins (less than 0.5%) after the election has already been called for Biden.
What was your prediction for the 2020 presidential election?
like Trump winning 270-268 or something like that, i don't remember, but it wasn't a blowout like derp's map
I saw AZ coming but nobody objective realistically had Georgia flipping.... and those liberal optimists who had GA flipping also definitely had NC flipping and Florida blue.
for Desantis vs. Biden I have Desantis winning the electoral college and popular vote but still losing PA and MI... two states the GOP have lot a lot of ground in since 2018. I see Desantis winning back AZ and GA, NV, and he could potentially peel off a VA and even NM as well. Wisconsin again could go either way but Desantis' path to WI is different from Trump in that he would have to win the Scott Walker way by running up the score in the WOW and doing just enough in the rural areas and smaller cities in the west and north to get the job done. Trump's path to WI would be similar to 2016 in that he would need to run the score up in the less urban parts and perform just well enough in WOW to win. Either way WI isn't as far gone for the Democrats as people thought a year or two ago.
I see Desantis vs Biden map as being similar to Bush vs Kerry in '04, but flip Colorado blue and VA, NM, and WI are toss ups
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 04-06-2023 at 02:41 PM.
Desantis will pick up momentum when he actually, you know, declares and launches a campaign.
Right now the odds are around 50/50 that he will even jump in the race at all and the polls are reflecting that. If Desantis had declared, say, Nov or Dec. 2022, he'd have a big advantage by now
He failed to capitalize on his own momentum and the optics of Trump having underperformed in the midterms and now he's got an uphill climb, but it's not one he can't overcome. He just has to actually declare first things first.
if wishful thinking were an Olympic event, I'd bet on you to medal.
Here's my final 2022 House Projection Map:
Full disclosure on the political leaning of the self-described libertarian, not.Here's my final 2022 Senate Projection Map:
Algorithm (as always)
Tilt = <+1.5%
Lean = +1.5-5.0%
Likely = +5.0-15.0%
Safe = >15.0%
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