Page 8 of 106 FirstFirst ... 4567891011121858 ... LastLast
Results 176 to 200 of 2630
  1. #176
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    34,594
    There’s a serious drop off in talent after the 8th pick tbh. And Spurs ain’t getting a top-5 pick cause they’re too proud to tank (even though tanking is literally the only reason this franchise is even relevant in the first place).

    They’ll be selecting around the 10th pick again this year and likely peddling in mediocrity for years to come tbh. Depressing but it is what it is.
    You don’t have to tank to get into the top 4, just get the right bounce on the ping pong balls. This team is wildly inconsistent, and I do not believe they can make the play in. Even one or two players out in protocols radically changes our fortunes. If we can stay in the top 7 picks, the WORST odds of jumping into the top 4 are 1/3.

  2. #177
    #POPOUT
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Post Count
    881
    You don’t have to tank to get into the top 4, just get the right bounce on the ping pong balls. This team is wildly inconsistent, and I do not believe they can make the play in. Even one or two players out in protocols radically changes our fortunes. If we can stay in the top 7 picks, the WORST odds of jumping into the top 4 are 1/3.
    ty thinking...if aint gonna make playoffs u tank. If u are 7th worst team u have 7,5% chance of receiving 1st pick, if u are one of the 3 worst team u have 14 %. Thats TWICE the chances. Whats more if u are 7th worst team its much nore likely u drop down than raise up. Theres literally no benefit from being a mediocre team.

  3. #178
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    34,594
    ty thinking...if aint gonna make playoffs u tank. If u are 7th worst team u have 7,5% chance of receiving 1st pick, if u are one of the 3 worst team u have 14 %. Thats TWICE the chances. Whats more if u are 7th worst team its much nore likely u drop down than raise up. Theres literally no benefit from being a mediocre team.
    We were talking about top4, not first overall. Everything I said was completely valid. Finishing #7 gets you 32.9% into the top 4 picks. That’s where the cheddar is.

    You can get bumped out of the top4, too. Happened to two teams last year, and 6 or 7 of the combined 8 top4 teams in the first two revised drafts. Tanking doesn't have nearly the value that it did before the lottery changes.

  4. #179
    #POPOUT
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Post Count
    881
    We were talking about top4, not first overall. Everything I said was completely valid. Finishing #7 gets you 32.9% into the top 4 picks. That’s where the cheddar is.

    You can get bumped out of the top4, too. Happened to two teams last year, and 6 or 7 of the combined 8 top4 teams in the first two revised drafts. Tanking doesn't have nearly the value that it did before the lottery changes.
    for a team which doesnt have a franchise player like spurs the main goal should be to maximize their chances of getting 1st pick not 30% of 4th...sure, value dropped but its still worth to tank

  5. #180
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    31,704
    for a team which doesnt have a franchise player like spurs the main goal should be to maximize their chances of getting 1st pick not 30% of 4th...sure, value dropped but its still worth to tank
    Completely agree. Tanking obviously isnít a guarantee, but it significantly increases your chances at top-4 pick, something this franchise desperately needs. Selecting 7-12 usually gets you a role player. Of course there are exceptions to this (Kawhi, Giannis, etc.), but this is usually the norm. And in a season where the Spurs are clearly nowhere near contending for anything, it makes no sense to finish with the 10th pic or somewhere around there.

    This front office should know better by now. Theyíre literally only relevant because they tanked twice and were rewarded David Robinson and Tim Duncan for it. But no, theyíre so caught up in their own ego and Popís record that they donít give a .

  6. #181
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    31,704
    You donít have to tank to get into the top 4, just get the right bounce on the ping pong balls. This team is wildly inconsistent, and I do not believe they can make the play in. Even one or two players out in protocols radically changes our fortunes. If we can stay in the top 7 picks, the WORST odds of jumping into the top 4 are 1/3.
    This team is just good enough to potentially make the play-in but not bad enough to warrant a top-4 pick without an incredibly lucky bounce of the lottery ball. So long as DJ is healthy, I donít see any way that this team gets a top-4 pick without some incredible luck. Losing games is the best thing that can happen to this franchise right now, particularly this season where weíre nowhere near contending for anything other than a potential chance to get swept in the 1st Round of the Playoffs.

  7. #182
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    4,911
    This team is just good enough to potentially make the play-in but not bad enough to warrant a top-4 pick without an incredibly lucky bounce of the lottery ball. So long as DJ is healthy, I donít see any way that this team gets a top-4 pick without some incredible luck. Losing games is the best thing that can happen to this franchise right now, particularly this season where weíre nowhere near contending for anything other than a potential chance to get swept in the 1st Round of the Playoffs.
    Meh. Give me those LA wins, Utah, both Boston games, give me these flashes anytime over an Orlando-like season, where everyone sucks.

    You're right that they're not very good anyway, so they'll have something like the 6th-9th best odds in the lottery. It's not that bad with the flattened odds - you basically drop from 52% chance for a top 4 pick to a 30-35% chance for a top 4 pick. You could also argue that there really isn't a tier 1 level prospect in this specific draft as well.

  8. #183
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    5,383
    I keep forgetting we essentially have two firsts with how good that DET 2nd is!

  9. #184
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Post Count
    8,429
    I'm perfectly okay with soft tanking: just having young players play through their mistakes and the vets are role players (McD, Young) instead of focal points (DDR). I sure wish Forbes's spot was given to a young prospect or tradable cap ballast (Aminu), but nothing's perfect I guess.

    I don't want anything approaching a hard tank like The Process Sixers. Especially with the flattened lottery odds.

    I heard rumors a couple years ago about the league going to a perfectly flat lottery system, where every team from #1-14 would get the same number of ping-pong balls. That would eliminate all incentive to tank, except maybe a late season mini-tank by a team wanting to fall out of the play-in bracket (throwing the play-in game would be a worse look than regular season tanking imo). I guess the current system is a compromise between flat and the old system.

  10. #185
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Post Count
    7,277
    Be so sweet to get first pick in the first round and first pick in the second round. Lol. One can dream.

  11. #186
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Post Count
    11,926
    I'm perfectly okay with soft tanking: just having young players play through their mistakes and the vets are role players (McD, Young) instead of focal points (DDR). I sure wish Forbes's spot was given to a young prospect or tradable cap ballast (Aminu), but nothing's perfect I guess.

    I don't want anything approaching a hard tank like The Process Sixers. Especially with the flattened lottery odds.

    I heard rumors a couple years ago about the league going to a perfectly flat lottery system, where every team from #1-14 would get the same number of ping-pong balls. That would eliminate all incentive to tank, except maybe a late season mini-tank by a team wanting to fall out of the play-in bracket (throwing the play-in game would be a worse look than regular season tanking imo). I guess the current system is a compromise between flat and the old system.
    Every time one of their pets has been in trouble there's conveniently been immediate lottery luck on the way. The league has tipped it's hand the past two drafts that they're not interested in helping a franchise they've long despised (for being counter culture as opposed to "team players") even somewhat recover from the fiasco they allowed to play out 3-5 years ago.

    The only way this team is getting a high pick(s) is by having the worst record possible, which this season is probably 5th or 6th.

  12. #187
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    34,594
    Completely agree. Tanking obviously isn’t a guarantee, but it significantly increases your chances at top-4 pick, something this franchise desperately needs. Selecting 7-12 usually gets you a role player. Of course there are exceptions to this (Kawhi, Giannis, etc.), but this is usually the norm. And in a season where the Spurs are clearly nowhere near contending for anything, it makes no sense to finish with the 10th pic or somewhere around there.

    This front office should know better by now. They’re literally only relevant because they tanked twice and were rewarded David Robinson and Tim Duncan for it. But no, they’re so caught up in their own ego and Pop’s record that they don’t give a .
    There are no David Robinsons or Tim Duncan’s who will EVER be available in the draft from here on out. Those two plugged in as immediate AllStars. David improved our record +35 wins, and Tim did him one better at +36 wins.

    In addition, 8 or 9 teams have been knocked OUT of the top 4 over the last three modified draft lotteries. Not much of a reward there.

  13. #188
    Believe.
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Post Count
    406
    Staying at the 8th pick or under is definitely the place to be statistically. It gives the Spurs the chance to win some home games and win games against the teams you really hate (LA teams). But they need to be careful. Some of the wins have been completely pointless and it would really suck to be the 9th pick and watch some team like Sacramento pick 8th and jump into the top 4. It will be a slow and painful death for the Spurs if they remain where they are right now.

  14. #189
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    4,911
    Staying at the 8th pick or under is definitely the place to be statistically. It gives the Spurs the chance to win some home games and win games against the teams you really hate (LA teams). But they need to be careful. Some of the wins have been completely pointless and it would really suck to be the 9th pick and watch some team like Sacramento pick 8th and jump into the top 4. It will be a slow and painful death for the Spurs if they remain where they are right now.
    Why? There isn't much of a statistical difference between 8th and 9th.

  15. #190
    Formerly Spurs21
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Sep 2018
    Post Count
    2,609
    for a team which doesnt have a franchise player like spurs the main goal should be to maximize their chances of getting 1st pick not 30% of 4th...sure, value dropped but its still worth to tank
    There is only a clear #1 talent every 10 years or so and this does not appear to be close to one of those years. Besides, we are destined to be picking in the top 1-10 for the foreseeable. We will have enough chances at drafting franchise changing talent over the next 3-5 years.

  16. #191
    #POPOUT
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jul 2019
    Post Count
    881
    There is only a clear #1 talent every 10 years or so and this does not appear to be close to one of those years. Besides, we are destined to be picking in the top 1-10 for the foreseeable. We will have enough chances at drafting franchise changing talent over the next 3-5 years.
    In last 11 drafts there are 8-9 #1 picks who could easily be our best player. In every draft in top10 there are at least 2-3 players who becomes an allstar or almost an all star. Besides this, higher pick is a better asset so u can trade it. Every year there are lots of teams who could give up everyone for a top3 pick. Good luck with waiting 5 yrs for a franchise player by drafting somewhere between 10-14 and sending him to gleague or giving his minutes to forbes XD

    What last years play in gave to us?? NOTHING. Now, what would give us more lost matches?? mobley? wagner? cade? scottie? or maybe primo + extra asset?

  17. #192
    Veteran
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Post Count
    5,383
    In last 11 drafts there are 8-9 #1 picks who could easily be our best player. In every draft in top10 there are at least 2-3 players who becomes an allstar or almost an all star. Besides this, higher pick is a better asset so u can trade it. Every year there are lots of teams who could give up everyone for a top3 pick. Good luck with waiting 5 yrs for a franchise player by drafting somewhere between 10-14 and sending him to gleague or giving his minutes to forbes XD

    What last years play in gave to us?? NOTHING. Now, what would give us more lost matches?? mobley? wagner? cade? scottie? or maybe primo + extra asset?
    An aside: Whatís impressive is that if you redraft 2016, 2017, and 2019 again right now, DJ, White, and Keldon are taken in the top 10 in each.

    Lonnie in 2018 is the only one that didnít make a huge jump from original selection slot, but in fairness that draft was impressively stacked.

  18. #193
    Formerly Spurs21
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Sep 2018
    Post Count
    2,609
    In last 11 drafts there are 8-9 #1 picks who could easily be our best player. In every draft in top10 there are at least 2-3 players who becomes an allstar or almost an all star. Besides this, higher pick is a better asset so u can trade it. Every year there are lots of teams who could give up everyone for a top3 pick. Good luck with waiting 5 yrs for a franchise player by drafting somewhere between 10-14 and sending him to gleague or giving his minutes to forbes XD

    What last years play in gave to us?? NOTHING. Now, what would give us more lost matches?? mobley? wagner? cade? scottie? or maybe primo + extra asset?
    I’m team tank just pointing out guaranteed #1s like TD, Shaq and LBJ aren’t available every year and it’s going to take a few years of high draft picks to rebuild this team. Landing the #1 pick or the #5 pick probably won’t make much of a difference this year. A full year of miserable basketball where tempers flare and losing really starts to wear on the culture can be detrimental also.

  19. #194
    Formerly Spurs21
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Sep 2018
    Post Count
    2,609
    In last 11 drafts there are 8-9 #1 picks who could easily be our best player. In every draft in top10 there are at least 2-3 players who becomes an allstar or almost an all star. Besides this, higher pick is a better asset so u can trade it. Every year there are lots of teams who could give up everyone for a top3 pick. Good luck with waiting 5 yrs for a franchise player by drafting somewhere between 10-14 and sending him to gleague or giving his minutes to forbes XD

    What last years play in gave to us?? NOTHING. Now, what would give us more lost matches?? mobley? wagner? cade? scottie? or maybe primo + extra asset?
    You are argue you want the team to tank and also argue we play Forbes too much when they are synonymous. You are just complaining.

  20. #195
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    34,594
    Why? There isn't much of a statistical difference between 8th and 9th.
    50% better odds at #1 (4.5%/3%) and roughly 50% better odds at top 4 (20.3%/13.9%).

  21. #196
    Veteran BG_Spurs_Fan's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Post Count
    4,911
    50% better odds at #1 (4.5%/3%) and roughly 50% better odds at top 4 (20.3%/13.9%).
    Your numbers are the difference between 9th and 10th, not 8th and 9th , but I still fail to see much of a statistical difference as odds become worse. There's a 100% better odds for #1 between picks 13 and 14, but few people would think it is significant considering the context ( 0.5% to 1% ).

  22. #197
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Post Count
    34,594
    Your numbers are the difference between 9th and 10th, not 8th and 9th , but I still fail to see much of a statistical difference as odds become worse. There's a 100% better odds for #1 between picks 13 and 14, but few people would think it is significant considering the context ( 0.5% to 1% ).
    You are correct. I looked at the wrong two lines in TaT’s odds table.

    Where I’d actually like to be is 6 or 7. Portland is currently playing without Dame AND McCollum, so I expect them to climb hard when they both return.

  23. #198
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Post Count
    31,704
    I’m team tank just pointing out guaranteed #1s like TD, Shaq and LBJ aren’t available every year and it’s going to take a few years of high draft picks to rebuild this team. Landing the #1 pick or the #5 pick probably won’t make much of a difference this year. A full year of miserable basketball where tempers flare and losing really starts to wear on the culture can be detrimental also.
    Disagree with this wholeheartedly. Landing Jabari Smith with the #1 overall pick would definitely make a difference. Legit franchise player imo.

  24. #199
    Veteran Dejounte's Avatar
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Post Count
    11,292
    No, he’s not

  25. #200
    Formerly Spurs21
    My Team
    San Antonio Spurs
    Join Date
    Sep 2018
    Post Count
    2,609
    Disagree with this wholeheartedly. Landing Jabari Smith with the #1 overall pick would definitely make a difference. Legit franchise player imo.
    Landing any of the moderate, top 5 talent in this draft, especially at the 3/4 position will make a difference but none of these guys have shown enough to be clear franchise players. That is where scouting, player development, proper roster construction, corporate culture comes into play.

    LBJ, TD, Shaq, DRob all went #1 but would have provided 30 game turnarounds on any team that drafted them.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •