1. #29551
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    Russia won't inavde, what?

    Have another L.

    No, Russia will not invade Ukraine
    A large-scale military operation does not fit into Moscow’s cost-benefit calculus.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2...invade-ukraine

    Been combing through quite a bit of analysis, and given that no invasion has happened, I no longer think it will.

    Especially not given the pattern of prior Russian uses of force, which as Yilmaz points out, have been decidedly limited and cautious. A full-scale invasion does not fit that pattern.

    The earlier analysis I posted pointed this out as well.

    Buildup 2.0 will get Putin some of the things he wants, but will have some second order consequences that he will not like.
    lol RandomGuy

  2. #29552
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    while you are here, why are Republicans supporting the fascist government in Moscow?

    Reagan is turning over in his grave.
    rUsSiA sTaNdS uP aGaInSt GlObO

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    Against Home Schooling Ef-man's Avatar
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  4. #29554
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Speaking of getting ed harder, looks like The Bilhorod People's Army may get nukes.



    RUMINT has them going for this installation. If they get the nukes and give them to UKR... bonkers cray cray, as the kids say.
    We dont want this imo.
    At all.

  5. #29555
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Hey Snaked

    You are continuing to make fun of the "when Russia is going to invade" schtick?
    Or did you get over that little man?

  6. #29556
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    lol 5-week special operation

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    Independent DMX7's Avatar
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    Russians are starting to give themselves up to drones.
    Russian convicts? I doubt Russia even wants them back.

  8. #29558
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    If Russia is invaded by Ukraine, can Russia invoke Article 4 (collective security clause) of the CSTO treaty??

    This may actually be relevant now.

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    Russia is now bombing itself.

    Why can’t Russia just give up Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, for peace?
    It has begun...


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    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Indeed. Before the run-up, it was up in the air.

    Once US intel started publicly saying it was going to happen, it didn't take long for any ambiguity to clear up.

    Only for s like you could changing ones mind because of better information be a bad thing. Tell me you suck at critical thinking without saying you suck at critical thinking.


    Since you are here:

    Why is Trump still sucking Putin's ? Why do so many Republicans openly support a fascist regime in Moscow?

  12. #29562
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Why is Trump still sucking Putin's ? Why do so many Republicans openly support a fascist regime in Moscow?
    Trump is easy. He looks at as a quid pro quo arrangement to his benefit. They help him without him even asking. He probably thinks its a sign of his greatness.

    I am really confused why old school neocons like Lindsay Graham are on board with it. I get it is RNC policy but still. It's ing weird.

  13. #29563
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    ... and a day or two later, with more information:

    All the military indicators are still there, and the troops in the area have moved closer to the border after leaving encampment and appear to be taking up positions. https://www.metro.us/us-says-more-russian/

    Ukraine is warning about increased separatist activity. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/w...diplomacy.html

    Berlin talks have broken down. https://www.bloombergquint.com/polit...ukraine-update

    Only one really rooting for this is Thread, who wants several tens of thousands of people to die so that it will make Biden miserable.
    But you got your yucks, and have always cared little for the truth, as most conservatives do not.

  14. #29564
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    We dont want this imo.
    At all.
    Dunno. How embarrassing would it be for Russian nukes to be so easily captured? I beg to differ.

  15. #29565
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Russian convicts? I doubt Russia even wants them back.
    Not all of the mobiki are convicts. The majority of the men fighting for Russia are not.

  16. #29566
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    If Russia is invaded by Ukraine, can Russia invoke Article 4 (collective security clause) of the CSTO treaty??

    This may actually be relevant now.
    It would be funny for them to invoke and Kazakhstan and Belarus refuse. I don't think he can afford to let something like that happen. This invasion into Belgorod has to have Putin shook as . Unfortunately this is where he can start justifying the use of nuclear weapons. Sovereignty and all that.

  17. #29567
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Trump is easy. He looks at as a quid pro quo arrangement to his benefit. They help him without him even asking. He probably thinks its a sign of his greatness.

    I am really confused why old school neocons like Lindsay Graham are on board with it. I get it is RNC policy but still. It's ing weird.
    A bit of data that is explained by this hypothesis:

    The basis of modern conservatism is violence, dishonesty and greed.

    If you know your policy is , be dishonest.
    If someone opposes you, they are satanists. Get the useful idiots in the movement to either kill them or threaten to kill them. Glorify violence at every turn, and use the language of violence in politics.
    If you can make money, do so, don't worry about the consequences for society in general. Ape Russian talking points, and watch the money roll in.

  18. #29568
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    Not all of the mobiki are convicts. The majority of the men fighting for Russia are not.
    Most of the shock troops are. That has been their MO since they lost a couple special forces brigades early in the war.

    They deploy the citizen conscripts to what the Russian see as low priority. Ukraine tries to take advantage like the Kharkiv counteroffensive where they run away and can be captured.

    I am curious how many men in those Russian rebel militias are former conscripts.

  19. #29569
    The Boognish FuzzyLumpkins's Avatar
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    A bit of data that is explained by this hypothesis:

    The basis of modern conservatism is violence, dishonesty and greed.

    If you know your policy is , be dishonest.
    If someone opposes you, they are satanists. Get the useful idiots in the movement to either kill them or threaten to kill them. Glorify violence at every turn, and use the language of violence in politics.
    If you can make money, do so, don't worry about the consequences for society in general. Ape Russian talking points, and watch the money roll in.
    I get that but Graham is deep in the pockets of defense contractors. The naval shipyards in SC paid him extremely well.

    GOP is a leaderless quagmire.

  20. #29570
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    I get that but Graham is deep in the pockets of defense contractors. The naval shipyards in SC paid him extremely well.

    GOP is a leaderless quagmire.
    Graham has to pay at least lip service to Russia because he can’t win a primary without the -eating, cousin- ing cracker vote. And -eating, cousin- ing crackers love Russia because 1) it has strong anti-LBGTQ policies, and 2) they find appeal in authoritarianism because they long for dominance over their domestic enemies.

  21. #29571
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Dunno. How embarrassing would it be for Russian nukes to be so easily captured? I beg to differ.
    Then get the IAEA involved in some way.
    Its not a good thing when random groups have control over radioactive material in a weapon. Even if they cant deliver it.
    Some international agency needs to know where it is. Not a good precedent. I dont want random radical groups in Israel etc... getting at their weapons either.
    Just my opinion.

    I do like that the idea there are Russian elements capable of distracting Putin et all (Wagner, Russian MoD, various other military en ies fighting for Russia) and making the war even more difficult for Russia
    Last edited by pgardn; 05-23-2023 at 10:35 AM.

  22. #29572
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    Then get the IAEA involved in some way.
    Its not a good thing when random groups have control over radioactive material in a weapon. Even if they cant deliver it.
    Some international agency needs to know where it is. Not a good precedent. I dont want random groups in Israel etc... getting at their weapons either.
    Just my opinion.
    This scenario was the underlying argument behind not letting Russia splinter into 20 different countries.

  23. #29573
    Against Home Schooling Ef-man's Avatar
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    Not all of the mobiki are convicts. The majority of the men fighting for Russia are not.
    It is not about the convicts, it is about artillery that responded once the convicts reveal the location of the defenders.

    King of the battlefields always has his way.

  24. #29574
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    This scenario was the underlying argument behind not letting Russia splinter into 20 different countries.
    Pretty much.
    Which I totally understand and seems the rational thing to do.
    It gets even worse when you cant hold a government or individual responsible.

  25. #29575
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    Pretty much.
    Which I totally understand and seems the rational thing to do.
    It gets even worse when you cant hold a government or individual responsible.
    The West had a vested interest in Russia’s holding together, which explains some of the pre-2022 deference to its aggression, but the internal pressures on that colonial empire — and make no mistake, despite its contiguity that’s what it is — necessitated the subjugation of Ukraine. If there’s a way to be East Slavic and Orthodox (culturally, at least) without being anti-Western, then the whole idea of Russia falls apart.

    Russia has to be able to see itself as the center of the world, the savior of the world, or else it falls apart.

    But the wholesale invasion of Ukraine was a bridge too far. So now over the next generation we’ll have to live with nuclear materials disappearing into the soup of a dozen Caucasian republics, independent Siberia, Dalniy Vostok, etc.

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