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Yeah, if you have the 5th best odds the most likely draft position is 7th, 2nd most likely is 6th. There's a way bigger chance to jump up (42%) or down (56%) than to stay at 5 - only 2.2%.
Remember that 5th worst record can easily = 6th pick because some team almost always jumps into the top 4.
Two teams have actually jumped the line the last few years.
Hopefully it is the Spurs this year making that jump.
Yeah, if you have the 5th best odds the most likely draft position is 7th, 2nd most likely is 6th. There's a way bigger chance to jump up (42%) or down (56%) than to stay at 5 - only 2.2%.
That can’t ever happen. If you’re #1, your worst position is #5, period. Four teams from outside the top 4 would have to jump into the top 4, which is mathematically possible, but if all 4 top 4 teams are knocked out, #1 still stays ahead of 2,3,4, so no worse than 5th overall.
The #1 team has never picked first since the odds were flattened 3 drafts ago. The #7 team has jumped into the top 4 all 3 drafts with the new odds. Tanking hard isn’t a guarantee of anything the way it used to be. All we really have to do is drift between 5 and 7, and we’ll have pretty good odds for top 4.
Let’s go tank for Chet then!
zach collins says nu-uh
They kind of inadvertently are and either way, top 4 odds are almost certainly out of reach anyway. Best they can do is stave off 3 others for 5th.
It's past time to start complaining about bad breaks and lack of respect. Murray not making All-Star was predictable, but the way Pop conceded it weeks ago was disgusting and while it may seem inconsequential, Vassel not making Rising Stars was even worse.
At some point, somebody in this organization needs to break character, grow a pair of balls and stand up for themselves. They're missing the big picture on this stuff and they can't afford to.
Rising Stars means nothing. No one will remember the game or anything about it by the end of the season. ASG isn’t much better.
That's not how I meant it. The point was and is, it clearly means something to players, especially non obvious selections on non glamour markets, to get some sort of national recognition.
That's been an issue here for a while, it's only getting worse and it's a major impediment to getting and more importantly retaining to stars going forward.
Agreed a lot of Spur fans don't get it that these players care a lot about these accolades. They think because Duncan, Manu didn't care about these things that all other players are the same. Duncan and Manu were the exception to the rule, but these guys have egos, and they need the validation through getting these accolades. If they are not getting them in SA, then they will eventually leave.
EVERY YEAR, so far, with the new odds, at LEAST two teams have jumped into the top 4, and one year, three teams did. The best jump odds still lie in the first few picks outside of the 4 top ones. If we stay 5-7, we have a decent shot. 7 has jumped in all three years of the flattened odds.
Pop doesn't care about his players accolades. He cares a lot about his own though, otherwise he wouldn't try so hard to get the record
You realize that he’s been eligible for the HOF for years, right? Coaches don’t have to wait until they retire. He’s chosen not to have his name submitted for consideration. Yeah, what a glory hound…
I don't want #1 this year, I want it next year.
I am critical of many things Pop does, but you are way off base and wrong. Pop is not Phil Jackson, he us not a glory . He has consistently stated that his players and staff have made him look great, specifically Tim Duncan. He has also made it clear that he won't go into the HOF until the big 3 all get in. Not only does he coach his players, but he is a father figure in their lives. He also does this for players on other teams. He is gracious with all firmer players and coaches. So, while I have issues with certain things he does, on this topic, he gets an A+ with me.
One more thing, if he only cared about this record, why would he be the coach who started the resting players trend, which cost him many wins over the years?
he'll obviously do that once he retires. But him preaching all this players who are over themselves while clearly not being over himself is hilarious to me
I take my like back. Chet is pretty good.
That's soo humble.
False humility has become the default mode among celebrities, along with a no less terrible kind of false gra ude.Times, Sunday Times
I mean doesn’t he have injury written all over him though? Like is that an NBA body? That’s my main concern with him. Also (smaller concerns I suppose) this isn’t the early 00s. Big guys just aren’t as valuable anymore. I know he can shoot but I see him more as a role player than a star. I’d rather get an explosive PG
Yeah I get what you mean but he does kinda have the “it” factor. I think SA needs to stop out thinking themselves and take a risk.. swing for the fences. Chet mind be everything you say BUT if he can somehow avoid that he might be a real star. I’m not married to that pick but I’d do it.
I saw somewhere where they projected SA picking Mathurin from AZ. I think that’s a big strong 6-6, 6-7 G/SF we desperately need. Of course only if we are past picking 4th or so. Of course by picking a classic sized G we’ll have to package his predecessors for a very good 6-9 or 10 PF to complete the team. (Bye Bye Kelden and White/Walker)
Either way, Spurs absolutely have to turn this thing around in a big way. Soon. And in no way do we need another PG.
See I believe it’s that mentality that has hurt the Spurs to begin with. They keep trying to band aid everything instead of just dealing with the issue as a whole. There is no way to fix this soon. None
Even of Chet is a superstar, that still doesn’t fix anything soon. Luka is a superstar and he can’t fix Dallas. Joker took time. Giannis took time. KD took time. Harden took time. Curry took time. Kawhi took time. PG13 took time. The days of a Lebron or a Timmy (even Dave) coming in and turning a franchise around are over.
You have to ask yourself what pieces do we have that can help going forward and which players value can be replaced? White and Murray seem to be a great combination of PG just not at the same time. White is a bench player. Lonnie can be replaced easily. Keldon needs to be benched as well.
Can Murray be moved to the SG? If we drafted a Morant type player then wouldn’t that solve a lot of our issues. I believe we do need a point guard bc Murray can’t ever be one without learning how to dribble. The dude just can’t get to the teeth of the paint at will. He doesn’t suck in multiple defenders, he can’t break down a zone, he can’t dribble past his man consistently. And tbh be never will be able to.
But he can be a GREAT secondary playmaker. He has learned to shoot. Having someone assist for him would be great. Having someone else run the offense while he focuses on what he is strong at would be great. I feel like we are asking too much from Murray. Stuff he will never be able to do and are setting him up for failure (and I’m not talking numbers wise) I’m talking winning wise. He has ZERO players on his team that can make up for his shortcomings. I think it would be nice to have one of these quick athletic guards who can dribble and finish strong and get to the line. It would be a franchise game changer.
If there’s none this draft then us selecting Chet won’t stop us from having a good lotto pick next year. Bc he is far far away from being a franchise player. So hopefully we both get what we want.
That's exactly how we ended up with Luka lmfao. Draft a 6'8" or taller athletic big and call it a day. No need to overthink it and go CIA pop.
You can't compare Chet to Luka. Luka was completely unknown while Chet is and has been playing some top compe ion. I don't get your point really.
Well if you're gonna tell me Morant in this years draft then I'm all in for that.. but there isn't. Also, I don't mean Chet (or whoever) is going to take us over the top immediately but I do think combining Murray with a star is a great start. Your criticism of Murray is unfair due to the rest of the team sucking. He's very good 2nd or a great 3rd option. Either way he's a must have on a contender team.
The teams you mention are still chasing but what more do you want? Only 1 team can win the le and everyone else gets to try and dethrone them. I'm just saying take a risk with the pick, trade KJ/White/Lonnie while people still overrate them for a solid whatever-we-need.
I’m not critical of Murray whatsoever. It’s just a fact that he isn’t a good dribbler and can’t get into the teeth of the defense consistently. He just isn’t a point guard. He has now developed into a very solid player. But I think we are just asking too much of him. I think he would be better suited as a scoring 2 guard. He could be a Derozan (offensively) with a 3ball tbh. That would be a of a player.
I haven’t watched college ball in years. I have no idea who is available tbh. I agree that to combine Murray with a star is the optimal play. What I’m saying though is that even if we draft a star, that player will take years to become a star. There’s no such thing as an instant star anymore. Short of Lebron I can’t think of one. The closest I suppose is Morant or Luka. So if we draft Chet he could take 3-4 years to be an all star (if he becomes one). The best situation is a 96 year I suppose for everyone else but Chet and then we get a solid player in the draft two years in a row while having Murray.
Or we could end up like Minny and the Kings…
About Murray... I guess I'm just stuck on how Phil Jackson use to use the PG spot. Didn't really have a true PG just a tall versatile play initiator.
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