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I hope you don't mind me jacking this into yet a third thread, but you're going down the path I was talking about. Looking more than just picks to a coordinated effort.
I don't like looking at things in a vacuum. Instead of just looking at who you want in the Top 4, or with the Spurs' own 9th pick, try and look at the whole offseason. The Spurs have 3 FRP, and loads of cap space to go after a top FA, or facilitate deals. But if they go small-ish in the draft, they would almost have to be thinking about using that cap space for a bigger PF or a more dynamic C. How would you coordinate all that? I've got a few pretty specific questions to start:
I assume most people agree that if the Spurs hit the lottery, they would pick one of the 3 PF's at the top? But what if the Spurs got the 4th pick from the lottery, and Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith are gone? Would you take the 6'4" Ivey, or the 6'8" Keegan Murray?
What if they don't hit the lottery? I don't think they could trade up enough to get one of the Big 3 without including a player. I assume DJ and Keldon are off the table. So would you trade Vassell and the 9th pick to get up to one of those guys? Would you trade Vassell and the 9th, plus Toronto's 21 pick to get up to one of those 3 PF's at the top?
Okay, so let's just assume the Spurs stick with their own 9th pick. Another wing, if that's BPA? Or do they swing for a more dynamic big man? The mocks have been calling for the Spurs to draft Duren for months. Would you take Duren, the C, or Tari Eason the PF, or do you really love Sochan at the 9th pick?
Finally, would you try to go after a free agent big man with the cap space? I don't see anyone outside of DeAndre Ayton, and he's restricted, plus that still leaves the 4 position small. Ayton did decide to test free agency, rather than taking an extension from Phoenix. Would you take a throw at him, knowing that it would take something approaching a max deal - even if you used a player or future pick to sweeten a sign and trade?
I hope you don't mind me jacking this into yet a third thread, but you're going down the path I was talking about. Looking more than just picks to a coordinated effort.
Only likely available free agents I’m interested in are: Malik Monk, Tyus Jones, Jalen Smith, TJ Warren. I think they just rent the cap space out once again and gamble on someone similar to what they did with Collins.
Ivey over Keegan.
I don’t think anyone in the top four trades their pick (happens so rarely) but if we’re playing this game then absolutely yes, anyone is up for grabs except Murray. To be more specific, if it’s either Ivey or Banchero that’s there then I’m willing to part with Keldon, Vassell, or Poeltl.
At the 9th pick, I’m drafting in this order (assuming certain guys are gone):
Eason
Dyson
PBJ
Sochan
Mathurin
Same order obviously if the Spurs pick at 15th.
Get a starting-caliber PF whether through FA, trade, or the draft then rent out cap space for more assets. If Lonnie will take ~$8mil or less to stay you keep him otherwise let him walk/sign-and-trade him. Also look into bringing in a vet PG who doesn't mind limited/no minutes.
Don’t forget the possibility that we use these picks to acquire a ready to go, established PF.
My dream off season: hit the lotto to take Banchero or Smith, sign Lavine, trade TOR and BOS picks to parlay into future (better) picks. Likelihood is approx 0.2%
Edit: also sign Ibaka for big man depth. Don’t know how good he even is these days, just always liked that guy
I like both Jalen Smith and TJ Warren, and one or the other of them could be obtainable. But I'm a little worried that Smith was a "bust" until a contract year. I could see him getting a payday and then goldbricking. And I'm more than a little worried about Warren's injury history. But I get the interest.
It's late, but here's something to think about: in the last 15 years or so, there have only been 4 college players with a 10+ BPM, 60+ TS%, and STL and BLK rates of 3+. Zion, Mikal Bridges, Gary Clark, and Delon Wright. This year there are two - Keegan Murray and Tari Eason. And a month or so before the end of the season, Trevion Williams was there - his TS% and STL dipped just a little below the thresholds, but still worth looking at for a 6'10" guy who will probably be drafted around 40.
For the record, Clark was a senior in a weak AAC, and nobody cared about his college stats. Delon Wright has under-performed for a 20 pick. But I don't think Murray or Eason are likely to under-perform. Both, I think, are likely to be impact guys at the next level.
For me the questions start with the current roster.
From RealGM:
- From what we're hearing from the Spurs press and mainstream media; DJ, Vassell and Keldon are seemingly locked as the Spurs core.
- I expect Woodard, Stewart and Cacok to be gone. Harder to say on Weiskamp.
- Spurs would not only be thinking about the Lonnie situation and likely KJ extension, but the pending FA of Tre Jones, Jason Richardson and Jakob Poeltl in Summer of 2023 too.
If the Spurs do like Dyson Daniels as BPA at #9, they may be willing to move on from Tre, J Rich and Lonnie all before the Trade Deadline of 2023...
- My feeling is that the Spurs would prefer to keep J-Rich over Lonnie, but so would most teams... He may command an offer that is too good to turn down.
- Zach Collins has proven to be a pretty good big man. Think he has earned his backup position. Could he possibly a starter if the injuries are well and truly behind him?
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Of the prospects likely available when spurs pick, I'd rank in order: Dyson D, Duren, Sochan, Blake Wesley and T. Eason as my choices thus far. If the combine confirms a few things, the rankings may change.
The Jakob trade is a big one to monitor. Wright want's a 5 out offense it seems but only if someone overpays for Jakob.
Latest cap estimate is 122mm so we should have ~40mm in cap assuming:
- Collins, Landale and KBD are guaranteed
- Walker is renounced
if we end up using all 4 draft pick that probably eats about 10-12mm.
I don’t see any realistic free agent targets but I’d take a sniff at Bridges and Mo Bamba. There are just too many variables to consider. JRich and Jak are very attractive trade chips. McDermott also an easy contract to move.
My hope is we can get a better return for renting cap space than we did last summer. If you look at how we acquired the Raptors FRP we arguably paid >20mm for that between Thad and Hutchison.
Last edited by KingKev; 04-12-2022 at 05:49 AM.
Walker shot so badly this year. Minutes will a little down too, probably because of that shooting. He gets that 3 point shot over 36%, things will go well for him. I am also impressed with his D this season. Far better than last. I know that sometimes you just have to let go of a project. But I personally believe he can get much better with experience.
I know people here a generally down on Mcdermott. He put up fine numbers, 11ppg at 40% from 3. It was his first season in a new team. We know vets do better in their second year.
I still think John Collins is a target and it might only take Poeltl and picks. Spurs don't have to match salaries.
I am also interested in Okongwu.
There will probably be a lot of roster manoeuvering and trades and it'll be very interesting what they do with their picks and flexibility. I imagine Wieskamp will go back to a two-way contract for one more year, Cacok, KBD and maybe Landale waived. Not sure they like Langford at all either. Lonnie is an unknown too. Collins and Tre Jones will stay, I imagine, unless traded. Depending on how the draft goes they may have 2 or 3 open roster spots when free agency begins.
With the picks I imagine they'll shoot for the stars with one of them and draft a more ready player with the other, say Sharpe/Duren and Liddell. The third pick I hope they could trade for a 2023 or 24 one but failing that I'm fine with a draft and stash - there are a few very promising players, who'd fit. The 38th pick will be interesting. Normally this is a range of the draft where most players would expect to get a deal and a roster spot, instead of a two-way, and that might be problematic for the Spurs. They could do another draft and stash, or trade for a future 2nd or two, or they could simply draft someone willing to sign a two-way contract 10 or 15 spots higher than they might otherwise be selected.
Another possibility for the picks would be to trade one or two for an established player. I like Toronto's or Boston's pick for Harrison Barnes. Sacramento will probably demand more but it's doable.
As for free agency, if we disregard the bigger names who would be highly unlikely to sign, there are a few players I like a lot. Nic Batum has a $3 mil player option that he'd almost certainly decline. I think he could be had for a MLE type offer or a bit higher for 2 or 3 seasons and would fit very well on the current roster. Covington is similar, probably more expensive. I like Bobby Portis too. Of course trades might alter free agency priorities significantly.
Id trade anyone except DJ, and all 3 picks for Smith & Mathurin.
^ yikes hard pass on a 33yr old Nic Batum, especially on a 3 yr deal.
I hope PATFO shows restraint in handing out multi year contracts so vets. There is no need for that.
Anybody know anything about international free agents they may end up bringing in as a four? Landale came out of the blue last year.
I keep 9 and try to move two or three of 20/23/38/player to get up to 10-14 range. Nab Griffin and Eason.
Get Stix in FA, and another FA big for depth.
Try to trade/move Lonnie, Richardson for value. Dump Romeo.
Extend Keldon
We need to find another Kawhi who doesn't turn out to be a total tbh
Moving up in the draft seems almost impossible.
It would take an overpay.
Spurs calling and wanting to move up?
I hang up and pray i nab the guy they wanted with my pick.
Yeah, it would probably be better to kick either the Boston or Toronto pick down the road for a future FRP rather than bundle to move up in a draft that is genous from 5-25. There are eight teams with no FRP that may want to jump back in.
I wouldn't even mind draft and stashing Jovic for a year with the Toronto pick to keep him off the books AND kicking Boston's pick down the road.
Last edited by exstatic; 04-12-2022 at 08:58 AM.
It almost feels like he is out of the league now. I almost feel like he is done and will not be any sort of factor going forward.
If we hit Lottery, you take the best of who's available.
If we stick to #9, I'd like a PF (Murray or Eason if either are available)
Next pick, I'd like one of the 2 Centers (Williams or Kessler)
3rd Pick, I'd like SF (Jovic)
This would require everybody to drop to our picks since they are ALL higher on mock boards than our draft positions (except for Eason). I know, I'm setting myself up for a disappointing draft night.
I'd save the cap space for summer 2023 so we could test the team this coming season (100% full effort) and see what position/player is most needed from free agency. No veterans this summer; just let the kids play.
No draftee over 20 or under 6'7
He'll be a regular season factor, but he can only play 75% of the games, and that doesn't work in the playoffs. When he doesn't get that rest, he's much less effective. He'll be 31 before next season starts.
Regarding the draft, if we land a top 4 pick I'd take Banchero or Ivey with confidence. Otherwise I'm not 100% sold on Jabari Smith or Chet Holmgreen, so I would be willing to consider trading down a few spots, say for the 2 Blazers picks + something and get Sharpe (for potential) + Keegan Murray or Eason (need).
With the Toronto and Boston picks, I'd love to move up to the late lottery (2x1 or adding something else without overpaying) and also land Sochan and/or Jovic. If not Jovic might still be around by the Toronto pick (though I'm less confident in that by the second). And if it's all dried out by then, trade them for future picks.
With the Lakers 2nd there might still be something worthy... maybe Blake Wesley or Koloko are still there (though unlikely), another route would be a draft and stash with Kamagate or Dieng (I'm not sold on Besson), maybe Max Christie or Jabari Walker... or trade it away if not.
As for the offseason, I think Jalen Smith would be a good pickup that makes sense all around: young big with potential out of his team's price range and within ours. I'd try my best to move McDermott, and I'd entertain offers for Josh Richardson and Poeltl ONLY FOR A HIGH RETURN (if not keep them).
Oh... and extend Keldon and DON'T OVERPAY LONNIE!
Last edited by Ariel; 04-12-2022 at 09:55 AM.
Who will be tanking next year for Victor?
I do think his best years are behind him. What happened sucked, but glad the Spurs aren't stuck paying him the super-max so he can lick his wounds.
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