So Let's Talk Whole Offseason

[CGD]

^ I do think it hinges on whether they win or not this year, but their penny pinching history is well-known.

IIRC they can’t aggregate Saric in a S&T though, so would have to be only Ayton

[pad300]

^ I do think it hinges on whether they win or not this year, but their penny pinching history is well-known.

IIRC they can’t aggregate Saric in a S&T though, so would have to be only Ayton

Yeah, but in this case you could just make a 2nd deal, Richardson for Saric straight up...

[SAGirl]

That's roughly what I expect a Ayton S&T to look like this summer (except with the 2022 pick replaced by a 2023 spurs pick). Sarver has historically been unwilling to pay the lux tax, even for a contender (see how the Seven Seconds or Less Suns came apart). Now the lux penalties are even greater. If this Suns team doesn't win this year, CP3 is a year older...

Will Sarver eat at least 2 years in the Lux tax (probably 3; CP3's contract extends to 24/25) to keep a team that doesn't look like a real contender to me? (They don't have an actual MVP candidate - Luka, Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, ?Tatum? are the top 5 IMO). Personally I doubt it.

Financially, they have painted themselves into a corner. They are committed to CP3 and Booker for ~$65M annually for the next 2 years (and then they can let Booker walk, which they won't). They have also committed to Bridges at $20M annually. Some one (the Spurs, IMO should) will put a Max in front of Ayton, so he's not getting less than that... Either they let him go, negotiate an S&T or eat the tax...

As a package, it's about as good as they can expect - a cheap replacement for Ayton (Poeltl), 2 usable players (Richardson, McDermott), a pick (Spurs 2023?) and further cap relief (us taking Saric)...

Thats a convincing argument, I am not sure that Ayton is the guy they shed though, but you made a good case. I’d definitely want the Spurs to try to get him.

[Mr. Body]

Ayton? I don't know. Phoenix is thick with contracts, but even if they weren't, giving him the max must give them pause. He's clearly a good and improving player, but he doesn't shoot threes and doesn't even block shots.

[KingKev]

That's roughly what I expect a Ayton S&T to look like this summer (except with the 2022 pick replaced by a 2023 spurs pick). Sarver has historically been unwilling to pay the lux tax, even for a contender (see how the Seven Seconds or Less Suns came apart). Now the lux penalties are even greater. If this Suns team doesn't win this year, CP3 is a year older...

Will Sarver eat at least 2 years in the Lux tax (probably 3; CP3's contract extends to 24/25) to keep a team that doesn't look like a real contender to me? (They don't have an actual MVP candidate - Luka, Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, ?Tatum? are the top 5 IMO). Personally I doubt it.

Financially, they have painted themselves into a corner. They are committed to CP3 and Booker for ~$65M annually for the next 2 years (and then they can let Booker walk, which they won't). They have also committed to Bridges at $20M annually. Some one (the Spurs, IMO should) will put a Max in front of Ayton, so he's not getting less than that... Either they let him go, negotiate an S&T or eat the tax...

As a package, it's about as good as they can expect - a cheap replacement for Ayton (Poeltl), 2 usable players (Richardson, McDermott), a pick (Spurs 2023?) and further cap relief (us taking Saric)...

That IS NOT cap relief. They are taking back basically the same amount of salary in year 1. In year 2 they can let JRich walk but will have to pay Jak to retain him so REMAIN in the luxury tax with probably a worse team.

Great logic.

[SAGirl]

That IS NOT cap relief. They are taking back basically the same amount of salary in year 1. In year 2 they can let JRich walk but will have to pay Jak to retain him so REMAIN in the luxury tax with probably a worse team.

Great logic.

lol thanks for clearing that up. Honestly I don’t think they shed Ayton, he’s still a young and improving player. I think it would be a mistake, but what do I know right? They are still in a tight situation and will probably shed somebody.

[KingKev]

lol thanks for clearing that up. Honestly I don’t think they shed Ayton, he’s still a young and improving player. I think it would be a mistake, but what do I know right? They are still in a tight situation and will probably shed somebody.

I don’t have a strong view on what they will do with Ayton but I think it’s foolish to conclude Sarver and the Suns FO are stupid.

I’m not even advocating we go after Ayton but he is going to get max money from someone and Phoenix isn’t letting him walk for free. The Suns committed big bucks to Chris Paul in the twilight of his career so this whole the Suns are cheap narrative might not hold true these days.

I doubt the Spus even have interest in Ayton but if Phoenix is looking to sign and trade him to save money and keep the championship window open something along the lines of Jak, Vassell and a future FRP would probably be more realistic.

[R. DeMurre]

Owners have done stranger things, so it's hard to say. Mark Cuban didn't re-sign a 28 year old Tyson Chandler after the Mavs won a championship. He later admitted it was a mistake, but it still happened... and after that, the Mavs didn't contend at all.

[XDT76]

A lot of these MAX contract players do not make sense to us, those available are not gonna be first options for a championship team, Lavine, Ayton, Miles Bridges, they might be worth it to their team but definitely not for us. They might improve us but not gonna make us le contenders.

[exstatic]

A lot of these MAX contract players do not make sense to us, those available are not gonna be first options for a championship team, Lavine, Ayton, Miles Bridges, they might be worth it to their team but definitely not for us. They might improve us but not gonna make us le contenders.

I read an article about Aytons situation that basically there is no such thing as a max contract player, only players who have the leverage to get one. OPJ got one. Tobias Harris is on one now.

[R. DeMurre]

I wish it was easier to pigeonhole all moves, but it can be so unpredictable how things work out with contracts. DeRozan might've been an overpay on his last Raptor contract, but then Ujiri flipped it to get Kawhi, and their only championship... so ultimately, you have to view that as a success. According to the rumor mill, the 76ers have been trying to convert Tobias Harris's contract to multiple players or better fits for a couple of years without success. My inclination is to to say that maxing out a non-max impact player is a bad move, but even that isn't true sometimes. I'm not a huge fan of LaVine, but he could be a piece in a future trade that nets a true #1 option.


https://www.si.com/nba/2016/07/01/de...des-kyle-lowry

[XDT76]

I read an article about Aytons situation that basically there is no such thing as a max contract player, only players who have the leverage to get one. OPJ got one. Tobias Harris is on one now.

I agree, I called them MAX contract players bcos some posters wanted to offer them the MAX contract. There a are a few who really worth it though like gianni, luca and embiid where they forced the other team to really game plan against them with multiple defenders.

[SAGirl]

^There are obvious max contract players, which you dont even think about like Doncic and Morant. There are a lot of other guys though that you need, are young and improving and you can’t easily replace. The max contract for young players is not the same for veterans, so if a young and improving player is worth it to you, maybe it gives you pause, but someone will poach them while you hesitate.

I actually hesitate a lot more on maxing the veterans, their contracts are huge and depending on their age and game they will turn out not to be worth it. Only HOF talent is worth it late in their careers and you still have the risk that they will fall off any year now.

[baseline bum]

That's roughly what I expect a Ayton S&T to look like this summer (except with the 2022 pick replaced by a 2023 spurs pick). Sarver has historically been unwilling to pay the lux tax, even for a contender (see how the Seven Seconds or Less Suns came apart). Now the lux penalties are even greater. If this Suns team doesn't win this year, CP3 is a year older...

Will Sarver eat at least 2 years in the Lux tax (probably 3; CP3's contract extends to 24/25) to keep a team that doesn't look like a real contender to me? (They don't have an actual MVP candidate - Luka, Jokic, Embiid, Giannis, ?Tatum? are the top 5 IMO). Personally I doubt it.

Financially, they have painted themselves into a corner. They are committed to CP3 and Booker for ~$65M annually for the next 2 years (and then they can let Booker walk, which they won't). They have also committed to Bridges at $20M annually. Some one (the Spurs, IMO should) will put a Max in front of Ayton, so he's not getting less than that... Either they let him go, negotiate an S&T or eat the tax...

As a package, it's about as good as they can expect - a cheap replacement for Ayton (Poeltl), 2 usable players (Richardson, McDermott), a pick (Spurs 2023?) and further cap relief (us taking Saric)...

Honestly think they're just hoping he agrees to a max deal with someone and then they can match. So they get him on a four year deal with 5% yearly raises instead of a five year deal with 8% yearly raises. Not even Sarver could be cheap enough to dump Ayton off a le contender. Especially when Ayton's max is 25% of the cap, it's not like he'd be paying a Harden max contract at 35% of the cap to keep him.

[R. DeMurre]

^There are obvious max contract players, which you dont even think about like Doncic and Morant. There are a lot of other guys though that you need, are young and improving and you can’t easily replace. The max contract for young players is not the same for veterans, so if a young and improving player is worth it to you, maybe it gives you pause, but someone will poach them while you hesitate.

I actually hesitate a lot more on maxing the veterans, their contracts are huge and depending on their age and game they will turn out not to be worth it. Only HOF talent is worth it late in their careers and you still have the risk that they will fall off any year now.

And it's funny how so many opinions will hinge on the results of this season. Phoenix certainly has a chance at a championship, and if they do win it, people will say "see, it makes sense to max out an older guy like Chris Paul." But if they don't win (for the second year in a row), especially if CP3 gets injured, people will say it isn't a good strategy. But sometimes it all comes down to the natural variance in percentages, and the outcomes really don't prove anything. The Lakers both won and lost in a way with this strategy: they got their 2020 championship with LeBron and AD, which is a success story, but now they look relatively doomed for the future.

[pad300]

That IS NOT cap relief. They are taking back basically the same amount of salary in year 1. In year 2 they can let JRich walk but will have to pay Jak to retain him so REMAIN in the luxury tax with probably a worse team.

Great logic.

Yeah, you're not understanding the problem.

Without something like this, they max and keep ayton, they are have 4 roster spots eating ~ 115 million next year. They have 6 other committed salaries (Crowder, Sarid, Payne, Craig, Johnson, Shamet) for $46 million. 161 Million in total. They have to fill 12 spots (so 2 more). The lux tax line is at 147 Million next year; they're 9 million over, have 2 more spots to fill and Saric isn't likely an actual player. If Saric can't play, I believe they have to fill his spot as well... With the proposed trade, they only have 1 space left to fill, and instead of Ayton and Saric (~40 M) have Poeltl, Richardson and McDermott for (~35M). They save $5M and don't have to fill 2 roster spots... Also, Poeltl, Richardson and McDermott are all expiring, so they are not paying the repeater tax in 23-24 and 24-25...

We could save them even more money not sending them McDermott and taking part of Ayton's salary into capspace, but I don't think they get that good of a deal given the situation they are in.

[KingKev]

A lot of these MAX contract players do not make sense to us, those available are not gonna be first options for a championship team, Lavine, Ayton, Miles Bridges, they might be worth it to their team but definitely not for us. They might improve us but not gonna make us le contenders.

There isn’t a player in the league who would make us immediate le contenders. Some max players are obviously better than others but if you aren’t going to tank and you aren’t going to pay up in free agency, especially when most FAs require a premium to play here than why even try.

[KingKev]

Yeah, you're not understanding the problem.

Without something like this, they max and keep ayton, they are have 4 roster spots eating ~ 115 million next year. They have 6 other committed salaries (Crowder, Sarid, Payne, Craig, Johnson, Shamet) for $46 million. 161 Million in total. They have to fill 12 spots (so 2 more). The lux tax line is at 147 Million next year; they're 9 million over, have 2 more spots to fill and Saric isn't likely an actual player. If Saric can't play, I believe they have to fill his spot as well... With the proposed trade, they only have 1 space left to fill, and instead of Ayton and Saric (~40 M) have Poeltl, Richardson and McDermott for (~35M). They save $5M and don't have to fill 2 roster spots... Also, Poeltl, Richardson and McDermott are all expiring, so they are not paying the repeater tax in 23-24 and 24-25...

We could save them even more money not sending them McDermott and taking part of Ayton's salary into capspace, but I don't think they get that good of a deal given the situation they are in.

McDermott is not expiring. You failed to include the salary for an FRP and I could go on for days how dumb that scenario is for Phoenix but you aren't worth debating.

[Mr. Body]

Honestly think they're just hoping he agrees to a max deal with someone and then they can match. So they get him on a four year deal with 5% yearly raises instead of a five year deal with 8% yearly raises. Not even Sarver could be cheap enough to dump Ayton off a le contender. Especially when Ayton's max is 25% of the cap, it's not like he'd be paying a Harden max contract at 35% of the cap to keep him.

I agree with this. Normally I would hesitate to give the C position 25% of the cap. But he's proving to be a difference maker, a great clean-up guy and strong enough to give teams problems who don't have good Centers. They're also still in the Chris Paul window. Whether they ring this year or not, this era isn't coming again for a while. I think it's one thing for the Spurs to use up that kind of cap for Ayton, who isn't needed, quite another for the Suns to lose him.

[XDT76]

There isn’t a player in the league who would make us immediate le contenders. Some max players are obviously better than others but if you aren’t going to tank and you aren’t going to pay up in free agency, especially when most FAs require a premium to play here than why even try.

So we should get ourselves into situation where we overpay good players and get to nowhere and with no teams willingly to eventually take these rubbish contracts? Did the few years of Aldridge and DDR teach us nothing?

[KingKev]

So we should get ourselves into situation where we overpay good players and get to nowhere and with no teams willingly to eventually take these rubbish contracts? Did the few years of Aldridge and DDR teach us nothing?

No we should just complain that every possible FA doesn’t make us instant contenders so not even bother and continue to tell ourselves guys like Primo and Vassell are going to being us back to relevancy one day.

[BackHome]

I am hoping that out of the 4 possible draft picks we have 1 or 2 become quality starters on a good team and then I am hoping we tank the following year and get us a true Star to rebuild around. That will give us Murray and our future Star and at least two other good players. At that point I start looking to find a really good player to add that will help us win Playoff games - Rome was not built in a year and the Spurs will not be rebuilt unless they get lucky in the draft ie. right pick..right player....

[exstatic]

I am hoping that out of the 4 possible draft picks we have 1 or 2 become quality starters on a good team and then I am hoping we tank the following year and get us a true Star to rebuild around. That will give us Murray and our future Star and at least two other good players. At that point I start looking to find a really good player to add that will help us win Playoff games - Rome was not built in a year and the Spurs will not be rebuilt unless they get lucky in the draft ie. right pick..right player....

We didn’t tank this year, and won’t next year, either. You know better.

[KingKev]

I am hoping that out of the 4 possible draft picks we have 1 or 2 become quality starters on a good team and then I am hoping we tank the following year and get us a true Star to rebuild around. That will give us Murray and our future Star and at least two other good players. At that point I start looking to find a really good player to add that will help us win Playoff games - Rome was not built in a year and the Spurs will not be rebuilt unless they get lucky in the draft ie. right pick..right player....

If we even come away with one long term starter that will be a win but it’s unlikely to be a first year impact player. We are likely picking in the 7-14 range for the foreseeable future and we are probably as equally as likely to have to tear it down again as we are to become a compe ive playoff team in the next 2-3 years.

[CGD]

If we even come away with one long term starter that will be a win but it’s unlikely to be a first year impact player. We are likely picking in the 7-14 range for the foreseeable future and we are probably as equally as likely to have to tear it down again as we are to become a compe ive playoff team in the next 2-3 years.

This possibility really sunk in for me after we traded Derrick. If the spurs choose not to surround DJ and Yak with players on their time line this summer, it feels like a matter for time until they’re moved and we’re on to a new core around Vassel/Primo/2022 FRP picks.