Lottery Day Countdown - May 17th

[Sugus]

Let's get it bois.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Forecasting a 20% chance of massive semen cloud tonight in San Antonio

[Ocotillo]

I recall the year we won the golden ticket to draft TD. My kids were in the room with me and the look on their faces as their Dad literally lost it and was dancing and screaming in the living room.

[bluebellmaniac]

Under 4 hrs to go...

[Seventyniner]

I recall the year we won the golden ticket to draft TD. My kids were in the room with me and the look on their faces as their Dad literally lost it and was dancing and screaming in the living room.

Eyewitnesses tell me my dad did something similar with the D-Rob lottery win.

[Spurs Homer]

D. Rob saved the franchise before…

im thinking his mojo might repeat spurs history tonite…

[slick'81]

Fingers crossed for a jump to the top4 for sa

[rascal]

Would rather get 4th than 1st as I don't want the spurs to have a chance at making the mistake of drafting Chet.

[KingKev]

On this day in 1987 we also won the lottery….

[jjspur]

Would rather get 4th than 1st as I don't want the spurs to have a chance at making the mistake of drafting Chet.

I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Anyone know where I can stream it?

[Ariel]

I wonder what the market would be to trade back from #1 to 3 if we landed the top pick?

That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.

[Ariel]

Anyone know where I can stream it?

Same. It's on ESPN, so I think http://buffstream.io/nbabuffstreams1 should do the trick... but I'll be looking for alternatives and will let you know otherwise.

[pad300]

I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

Man the internet psychics are out in force tonight...

[rascal]

On this day in 1987 we also won the lottery….

Many things pointing to the Spurs getting into the top four.

I can see David Robinson fist pumping with a big smile when they get to the 9th pick and don't call the Spurs name, meaning the spurs are in the top 4.

[rascal]

I agree. Not a Chet fan. I believe he will get injured in summer league and not show much until December or later. That's way too late for a first pick. Again not a fan.

Even if he doesn't get injured, I don't like Holmgren's game. What an ugly looking game. I don't think he is all that good. I like other players where he is getting drafted better.

[Rev Hill]

Time to dust off the Chameleon!

[KingKev]

Man the internet psychics are out in force tonight...

Hahaha didn’t realize Miss Cleo was a Spurs fan.

[bluebellmaniac]

Under 2 hrs to go...

[Ariel]

The problem is, this is feast or famine. The average (or mean) doesn't "mean" much here.

You can talk about the the average house price or the average salary of a cohort. It's meaningful to talk about that average (or mean) because that number is a possible result that can lead to further understanding of realistic probabilities (even though it's unlikely that any one house/salary will precisely equal that average or mean). That statistical analysis leads somewhere.

The problem with the NBA draft (at least where the Spurs are) is that the average (or mean) is not theoretically possible. The Spurs can get 1-4 or 9-12, nothing in between. And "in between" is exactly where the average (or mean) falls.

Here, only the raw numbers matter -- the Spurs have about a 20.2% chance at 1-4 and about a 79.8% chance at 9-12. To a gambler, that's 4-1 against. The average (or mean) is somewhat less "mean"ingful here. (And the fact that the average result is a pick that is unavailable to the Spurs is still at least slightly funny. And please don't bore with an analysis of coin flips where the average/mean is also unatainable.)

Well, obviously. That's what I meant with the coin flip analogy, which illustrates that in the simplest terms. The problem, in any case, is not with the draft, but with a made up column in a random site (Tankathon), or more precisely, with people trying to make sense of it in a way different from what it was intended, trying to fit a square peg in a round hole.

[baseline bum]

Many things pointing to the Spurs getting into the top four.

I can see David Robinson fist pumping with a big smile when they get to the 9th pick and don't call the Spurs name, meaning the spurs are in the top 4.

I'll fist pump if they get to the 10th pick without calling the Spurs name tbh.

[R. DeMurre]

That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.

That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.

[exstatic]

That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.

Lavine was the #13 pick in his draft. Not a superstar, but a multiple All Star.

[rascal]

That's my dream scenario. Two times something similar happened were in 2017, when the Celtics traded down from 1 to 3 with the 76ers (Celtics ended up with Tatum + a pick -eventually no. 14 in 2019, used on our own Langford- and the 76ers with Fultz), and 2018 when Atlanta traded down from 3 to 5 (Atlanta got Trae Young + a pick -eventually no. 10 in 2019, used on Cam Reddish-, and Dallas got Luka). I know the latter is not a no. 1, but Dallas paid as if it were, since they knew damn well Luka was a franchise player and the clear cut top pick.
A fair trade could be, if we get no. 1 and OKC gets 3/4, that they throw in no. 12 to make it work, but I have a feeling OKC is comfortable picking all the way down to 5 (Sharpe), and they'll take Dieng at 12. Also, by the FO history I'm not sure they'd be willing to make the gamble of trading down, and they may just take their guy at no. 1, even if they could get him later on. But I'll be extremely happy with something like that.

I was thinking the OKC scenario might be a possible option but another more far fetch option is Charlotte and San Antonio both moving into the top 4, Sa at 1 and Charlotte at 3 or 4, Sa 1 and 25 for Charlotte's 3 and 15.

There is not a clear number 1 pick this year so the value at number 1 is not as high as other years. I don't see teams reaching for number 1 and trading valuable assets to get that number 1 pick.

[Ariel]

That strategy by Boston in 2017 was brilliant, even if it didn't yield results with the extra pick. Boston knew Philly loved Fultz and that the Lakers wanted Ball, and they themselves had Tatum #1 on their board, so picking up that extra asset with the trade was such a smart way to benefit doubly from winning the lottery. That move reminds me of the 2028 pick swap the Spurs got from Boston in the White trade.

Bam Adebayo turned out to be the steal of that 2017 draft, going #14-- which is an optimistic bit of history for Spurs fans even if they don't move up.

Yes it was. I fact, Ainge PURPOSEFULLY misled the media, spreading the word that they were high on Fultz, knowing full well that they NEVER intended to pick him, and Tatum was their guy. In fact, Ainge admitted later on that they would have picked Tatum at no. 1 anyway.
That draft had a lot of value later on: Donovan Mitc at 13, Bam at 14, John Collins at 19, Jarrett Allen at 22, OG Anunoby at 23, Kuzma at 27, Derrick White at 29, Josh Hart at 30, Dillon Brooks at 45, Monte Morris at 51... I think something similar could happen here.