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Back in. Might drop a couple bucks more tho.
Best week since November 2020
Way to go joe!
Back in. Might drop a couple bucks more tho.
Bought QQQ puts at market close yesterday and sold them up 150% this morning LETS GO BRANDON!!!
sweet.
Damn. What was the strike price and expiration date?
Monday expiration, $295 strike. I'm kicking myself for not riding it out this morning, I'd be up another $12k if I held the options a few hours longer.
Nice. You can't kick yourself for that though. Market is so nuts that it can turn on a dime. I'm still riding out SPXU but could have sold and bought back a couple of times. I still think there's some bad coming.Monday expiration, $295 strike. I'm kicking myself for not riding it out this morning, I'd be up another $12k if I held the options a few hours longer.
Oh I agree, I don't think we're near the bottom of the market yet. The rally we saw last week was always fool's gold that would get wiped out at the first sign of bad news.
The bad is called the Fed. You would think at some point they're gonna have to realize how far behind the curve they are and then they'll break the economy.
Their hands are tied at this point. Sometimes there's no solution other than let the break and start over. I just don't see an easy fix.The bad is called the Fed
IMO at their next fed meeting they need to just rip the band aid off and raise rates 100 BPS. That probably sends the economy into a recession but imo that's inevitable now, it stops the bleeding with inflation.
Millennials like me who've been waiting for another housing market crash to buy a home since we graduated from college might finally get our wish.
Yeah a recession this year or next seems unavoidable. As far as the market, a 100 BPS raise next week might actually be welcomed. After a day or two of freaking out of course lol.
The real rub is that from my experience, the counties never adjust property value to the downside. It's total bull .
I think that's somewhat Texas specific because the way Texas makes up for not having any income tax is by raping you on property taxes.
Their hands haven't been tied. They could've and should've started raising interest rates a year ago and they can still start gettin after it. They have just favored wall street over main street for so long that they will probably end up breaking both imho.
Long gamers rolling our eyes.
She inspires great confidence.
Wall Street is panicking about a recession. But consumer spending and cooling inflation means it's not going to happen, a US strategist argues.
At the end of last year, almost nobody was talking about a US recession. Now, the dreaded 'R' word is on everybody's lips.
A consensus is building on Wall Street that US economic growth is soon likely to turn negative, as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to cool rampant inflation.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices soaring, adding to inflation and making the Fed's job even harder. China's zero-COVID policy — which has shut down swathes of its economy — isn't helping.
Traditionally, a recession is defined as two quarters of decline in gross domestic product. Needless to say, it's not good for companies or their stock prices. The S&P 500 has tumbled this year, partly due to worries about growth.
But for all the doom and gloom, there are plenty who doubt the recession narrative, and say the US economy is still strong.
Michael Skordeles — a senior US macro strategist at Truist Advisory Services, part of the $66 billion bank — is one of those people.
"It's the consumer, stupid," he told Insider this week, paraphrasing James Carville's famous saying.
"We're not saying risks haven't increased," he said. "All the conditions were very favorable, and now they've gotten less favorable than that. But that doesn't mean it's a recession."
Skordeles said Americans are sitting on a lot of cash, thanks in large part to pandemic stimulus. Truist estimates consumers have built up $4.7 trillion in savings and deposits since the start of the coronavirus outbreak.
But Skordeles said $1.2 trillion of that has come since May 2021, when stimulus measures had mostly ended, largely as a resulto of a rise in wages.
Skordeles said the strong labor market — unemployment stood at 3.6% in April, near the lowest level since the 1950s — is helping people's wages and incomes grow. And although that is inflationary, it also means spending is likely to hold up.
Yet the Truist strategist said there's good news on inflation, too. A surge in spending on goods during the pandemic stressed out supply chains and contributed to soaring prices.
However, there's now evidence of a rotation back to spending on services, such as as life gradually returns to normal after the pandemic. Skordeles said that should help alleviate inflationary pressures.
Retail trade sales grew 6.7% in April compared to a year earlier, but spending on food services, such as restaurants, and drinking places shot up 19.8%.
At the heart of most economists' predictions for a recession is the Fed. In many analysts' eyes, the central bank will have to hike interest rates so high to choke off inflation that it will derail the economy.
Yet Skordeles said the recent slowdown in growth seen in the US and elsewhere — due to rising energy costs and uncertainty, among other things — could actually be a good thing for the economy overall, in the medium term. Combined with the shift to services spending, it's likely to mean the Fed hikes less hard than many expect.
"It's gonna be uneven. It's not gonna be a straight line. We expect continued volatility," Skordeles said. "But I think we get past it."
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-truist-2022-6
That's going to be a good subplot to follow. Consumer spending keeps outpacing inflation all these months, but one would think it'll slow down after the summer, so the question is whether the Fed puts the clamp down now or later on.
Hire people that think like you and you'll be stuck with yourself.
Like Donald and Ivanka.
Yep, yep.
I actually agree; imo the market is half reacting to rate hikes but also half reacting to the fed's incompetence and inability to assess economic conditions. A 100 BPS rate hike would shock the market but it would also show the fed is capable of taking decisive action.
It's funny that the fed is still debating over 25 BPS or 50 BPS rate hikes; at a minimum the debate should be about 50 BPS or 75 BPS rate hikes...instead the fed thinks its job is to operate as an extension of Wall Street so it's taken 75 BPS rate hikes off the table because any scenario where the fed might hurt the stock market is a non-starter.
They stopped using the word transitory but it doesn't seem like they've stopped believing it.
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