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Dieng seems like the guy to me too.
The concern I have is that they become so infatuated with him as a player that an unexpected leap into the top 3 (should it occur), does nothing to dissuade them from taking him there…
Dieng seems like the home run swing that I could see Wright going for. Evidently, he made significant progress over the second half of the season. This could easily be the pick. Also, a decent chance for bust. His personality/at ude is crucial, I would imagine.
Dieng seems like the guy to me too.
The concern I have is that they become so infatuated with him as a player that an unexpected leap into the top 3 (should it occur), does nothing to dissuade them from taking him there…
Get another pick in the teens so we can get two of: Wesley, Dieng, Miller, PBJ, Dyson. Potential is through the roof with any combo of these guys. Personally think Wesley is ultimate sleeper here.
I don't see a scenario where they'd take him in the top 4..
I'm far from sold on Miller, but I do think that's the range where the value is, more so than 9 (where we'd probably have to reach someone who'd likely be available 3/5 picks later) and 20/25 (where they'd likely be gone).
So (unless someone unexpectedly falls) I wouldn't be opposed to trading down from 9 or up from 20/25 to the late lottery, like say a 9 & 25 swap for 13 & 15 with Charlotte, or something along those lines... we're much more likely to find 2 of those guys that way.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-14-2022 at 07:19 PM.
9 and 20 would be more fair for 13 and 15. Spurs gain 5 spots from 20 to 15 but lose 4 from 9 to 13.
9 and 20 is wildly overpaying for those two picks. You could probably get 13 and 15 straight up for the 9.
Yeah I would not give up 9 and 20 to get 13 and 15 - Maybe give up 9th and our 38th pick for there 13th and 15th....But I am hoping we can keep working on that Poodle deal and maybe trade him for there 13th and 15th and them getting Poodle and our 38th pick? My only question who would we need to get to make the trade work as far as salaries?
Doesn't work that way. The gap between each pick and the next gets LARGER as you climb up, so 4 spots from 9 to 13 is A LOT MORE VALUE than 5 spots from 15 to 20. I threw that up as a possibility, but it wouldn't even be my first choice, I'd rather try using some combination of Poeltl, Richardson, 20, 25 and 38 (without overpaying) to get into the late lottery, before giving up 9. But if there's no other way...
True in general terms... but it also depends on the draft. Usually at some point every draft there's a big drop off, and IMO in this draft it's top 4 (mainly because Banchero and Ivey, whom I regard the highest, will likely be picked 3rd and 4th), and then mid teens to 20s.
I think we can all agree the Spurs have a rather unique evaluation process when contemplating draft picks/scenarios.
Hypothetically, (yet granted, somewhat unrealistically), if the vaunted, consensus top 4 somewhat “flunk” the intangible draft interview process, (first year expectations, G-League reticence as perhaps some examples); Dieng could easily rise with a dominant combine showing.
If Charlotte lands in the top four would you trade 10 and Poeltl for a top 4 and 15?
That's a rip off trade favoring the Spurs.
Last edited by rascal; 05-14-2022 at 10:09 PM.
That's a rip off trade favoring the Spurs. 38th pick has little to no value. You'll be lucky to draft a player good enough to make the roster at 38.
9 and 20 for 13 and 15 is a good trade for the Spurs if the Spurs are interested in a player that they are reaching for who will be there at 13. they upgrade the 20th pick to 15. You can't offer rip off deals that will just get rejected.
Charlotte has to like the offer enough to pull the trigger on a trade.
I know everyone wants a rip off deal that clearly favors the Spurs but it doesn't work that way.
We agree that they have a unique evaluation process but, that doesn't include going that far outside of a consensus top tier to select a player. The Spurs getting a top 4 pick and picking Dieng isn't a real threat to happen. Trading back to get him? Ok, I could buy that but they aren't taking him at that position...it's not something we should worry about in my opinion..
I see the drop-off around pick 11 or so. Depends on if players unexpectedly go in the top 10 and if a team is dumb enough to take AJ Griffin that high. At least for now, once we see Duren, Davis, Mathurin go, we're seeing a drop. So I definitely see the 13 and 15 belonging to a different tier than the 9. I certainly wouldn't include the 20. The 25, maybe. The question is more whether two Tier 3s are as valuable to me as one Tier 2.
If not Daniels, it'll probably be him.
I wouldn't be concerned about them taking him in the top 4 though.
I like Dieng, i think he could develop into a really good basketball player. The only thing i don't like too much is that he's kind of a project and i want the spurs to get a ready guy at 9.
Ready guys, unless they’re a top 2–3 pick, are usually done with their development. They’re usually older, and have relied on physical development advantages that won’t work in the NBA.
Was Kawhi ready? Nope. He sat in the corner shooting 3s for the better part of two seasons.
I've got #8 as my cutoff for tier 2 but, part of that is that I don't value Johnny Davis as much as some others and have him at #9. With Daniels and Dieng rising as of late I think you may end up being right and the drop-off line for tier 2 ends up at 11...at least it's trending that way as of now...
Maybe you don't understand cause i said "ready", "more ready " is better and I think Duren or Sochan are more ready for example.
Despite this i don't see Dieng as a pure project, he showed some good things in Australia and the tools are there.
Well, it's all entirely dependent on one's assumptions. I think Mathurin will go top 8, probably Duren too. I have Sochan, Dyson Daniels and Johnny Davis in roughly the same tier as them, and I'm counting on AJ Griffin getting into the top 10 (Sacramento?), and maybe Mark Williams, Agbaji or TyTy Washington (NY? Washington?) who are ready now and fit role stereotypes will tempt some teams and sneak in there too... Sacramento, NO, Portland, Washington and NY are apparently trying to have an immediate impact, so I don't think it's far fetched for any of that to happen. Also you never know who OKC will take. I have a feeling they'll go Dieng at 12, but it could be Miller, all it takes is a couple of good workouts.
And my reasoning is that, if they get into that late lottery, Tari Eason may be pushed back... I don't think he'll get past 18, but if he's there it'd be a shame to miss out on him by a couple picks. Trading up a few places from 20 could also be an interesting move... say 20+ 38 + future second for 17/18, if we like someone in that range who's likely to be picked. But that's all highly speculative, and we'll have a much clearer picture once the lottery and draft combine take place... who knows, maybe we get lucky and within a few days this board turns into a Chet yes/no all out civil war.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-15-2022 at 12:17 PM.
So fast that their head will go spinning... but if you were complaining about trades loopsided in favor of the Spurs, that one is much worse.
No matter who we choose, think everyone will probably be pissed off..
Not if it's Banchero or Ivey...
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