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  1. #1
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    https://www.spurstalk.com/san-antoni...draft-lottery/

    Any pick in the top four would be awesome. In this draft, picking fourth is about 90% as awesome as picking first.


  2. #2
    One TEAM One Goal siraulo23's Avatar
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    basketball gods pleaseee

  3. #3
    Peace! bluebellmaniac's Avatar
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    Get some sleep!

  4. #4
    Erryday I'm Hustlin' Robz4000's Avatar
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    12th pick here we come.

  5. #5
    Veteran John B's Avatar
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    13 hours to go…

  6. #6
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    12th pick here we come.
    If you ran the sim a large number of times, say a billion, we would get the #1 pick 45 times for every time we got pushed back to #12. A top 4 pick would pop up 203 times for every single time we got bumped back to #12.

  7. #7
    Starter off the bench Uriel's Avatar
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    Given that there’s a 20% chance our pick moves up from #9 and a 30% chance it moves down, just landing at #9 should be considered a victory in itself.

  8. #8
    Veteran Spursfanfromafar's Avatar
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    For some vague/unexplained reason, my gut instinct says that Jabari Smith might soon be in a Spurs uniform. Here's hoping that becomes reality.

  9. #9
    Veteran
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  10. #10
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

    Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?

  11. #11
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    Today is draft day.

    Today is Tony Parkers birthday.

    Spurs have best odds at pick 9.

    Tony Parker wore number 9.

    Do the math……

  12. #12
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

    Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?
    That’s pretty much a permanent situation. I don’t believe there will ever be another #1 pick who is an All Star and All NBA as a rookie. I won’t speak for LJ, but imo, 80% of the draft’s value is still in those 4 picks. It just takes 3 years to realize that Star power.

    I can see narrow set of cir stances where a team may not think that Ivey will shoot well enough, and might trade back out of #4, but I can’t see #s 1-3 moving to anyone outside of the top 4. A team may pull a Boston, and trade out of #1 for future consideration, but it would only be to 2 or 3.

  13. #13
    Veteran The Truth #6's Avatar
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    Small market team.
    Whispers of the team leaving.
    Alright, Adam Silver. Time to step up and do what you have done for other teams: rig this and give us a top pick.

  14. #14
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    That’s pretty much a permanent situation. I don’t believe there will ever be another #1 pick who is an All Star and All NBA as a rookie. I won’t speak for LJ, but imo, 80% of the draft’s value is still in those 4 picks. It just takes 3 years to realize that Star power.

    I can see narrow set of cir stances where a team may not think that Ivey will shoot well enough, and might trade back out of #4, but I can’t see #s 1-3 moving to anyone outside of the top 4. A team may pull a Boston, and trade out of #1 for future consideration, but it would only be to 2 or 3.
    Prob agree overall - at least for what SA would have to offer (unless they offered up Dejounte). But I can see many teams fearing drafting Chet and worrying about him too. All the top 4 have some concerns either about ceiling or flaws in their games.

    Will be interesting.

  15. #15
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    To me, Ivey is the wildcard in the top 4. He can go 3 ways, depending on his personality and work ethic.

    He can be like Sammich, not work on his game, bask in his draft status, his shot will not translate to the NBA, and he’ll bust. He can work reasonably hard, maintain his 36% after making the NBA leap, and be a borderline AS, or he can be an absolute bulldog, work his ass 24/7/365, and get his 3 pointer up to 40% and be a ing monster.

    You have to get a pretty good read on his personality. Without knowing that, I’d put the odds of the 3 scenarios at 45/50/5.

  16. #16
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Small market team.
    Whispers of the team leaving.
    Alright, Adam Silver. Time to step up and do what you have done for other teams: rig this and give us a top pick.
    How about “team that didn’t blatantly pull the plug in February “?

  17. #17
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    timvp: given that there don’t appear to be any Duncan/Lebron types how viable is trading into the top 4 in your opinion?

    Do you think it’s doable since there are no perceived superstars? Or still a long shot?
    I don't think it'd be possible to trade into the top four without massively overpaying. It'd be nice to package 9/10 with 20 and/or 25 to move up ... but that probably only lands you the sixth pick at best.

    Maybe Dejounte + 9 + 20 for 4 + trash contract would work but, yeah, that's an example of an overpayment.

  18. #18
    Make a trade steal
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    To me, Ivey is the wildcard in the top 4. He can go 3 ways, depending on his personality and work ethic.

    He can be like Sammich, not work on his game, bask in his draft status, his shot will not translate to the NBA, and heíll bust. He can work reasonably hard, maintain his 36% after making the NBA leap, and be a borderline AS, or he can be an absolute bulldog, work his ass 24/7/365, and get his 3 pointer up to 40% and be a ing monster.

    You have to get a pretty good read on his personality. Without knowing that, Iíd put the odds of the 3 scenarios at 45/50/5.
    I see him as a hard worker. He plays hard with a lot of passion and energy in his game. Its not turned off and on but his motor and drive is always on.

    He's nothing like low energy soft Sammich.
    You're getting a top talent with Ivey, borderline all star or solid all star. 0/50/50

  19. #19
    Spurs fan since 1995 RLT's Avatar
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    For some vague/unexplained reason, my gut instinct says that Jabari Smith might soon be in a Spurs uniform. Here's hoping that becomes reality.
    For some reason, I feel the exact same way.

  20. #20
    You never know JPB's Avatar
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    https://www.spurstalk.com/san-antoni...draft-lottery/

    Any pick in the top four would be awesome. In this draft, picking fourth is about 90% as awesome as picking first.

    Which tells about how this draft is good in terms of number of good players but not great in terms of great players.

  21. #21
    The Dude minds DPG21920's Avatar
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    I don't think it'd be possible to trade into the top four without massively overpaying. It'd be nice to package 9/10 with 20 and/or 25 to move up ... but that probably only lands you the sixth pick at best.

    Maybe Dejounte + 9 + 20 for 4 + trash contract would work but, yeah, that's an example of an overpayment.
    Ya - I dont think trading Dejounte + 9 + 20 makes sense. There’s a decent chance 2-3 of the top 4 never reach Murrays level and even if they do, I am not sure their ceilings are high enough above current DJ to warrant doing that.

    I was thinking something more like (knowing SA isn’t this creative lol and it would be tough to do): SA lands pick 9 naturally. SA uses something like Jak + pick 25 to land pick 13-16. Now SA has 9, 13 & 20 and maybe that is good enough to get to 4?

    Who knows and seems doubtful, but regardless, I would trade Jak +25 if it meant pick 13 anyways.

  22. #22
    GetalifewoodU Strategic's Avatar
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    Ready to get this over with. Just the pessimism in me but can’t help comparing Holmgren to Sam Bowie. Concerned about the strains of an 82 game grind.

  23. #23
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    I see him as a hard worker. He plays hard with a lot of passion and energy in his game. Its not turned off and on but his motor and drive is always on.

    He's nothing like low energy soft Sammich.
    You're getting a top talent with Ivey, borderline all star or solid all star. 0/50/50
    Playing hard is only half the battle. 90% of development happens outside of game time, and probably 2/3s of that happens outside of team time. It’s ridiculous that you see zero bust chance for the guy in the top 4 with the highest bust chance. He also has the highest or tied for the highest ceiling. That bust chance is what makes him the clear #4. If you only go by upside, he could be top 2, but if that shot doesn’t fall at a high clip, he could be Lonnie Walker in a flash. He CANNOT be a below average 3 point shooter and be an All Star level or higher player. He doesn’t do enough other stuff to make up for it, and he’s under sized for a SG.

  24. #24
    Dyna5ty BatManu20's Avatar
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    Letís just fast forward to the part where we select Dyson Daniels with the 9th pick tbh.

  25. #25
    Make a trade steal
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    Playing hard is only half the battle. 90% of development happens outside of game time, and probably 2/3s of that happens outside of team time. It’s ridiculous that you see zero bust chance for the guy in the top 4 with the highest bust chance. He also has the highest or tied for the highest ceiling. That bust chance is what makes him the clear #4. If you only go by upside, he could be top 2, but if that shot doesn’t fall at a high clip, he could be Lonnie Walker in a flash. He CANNOT be a below average 3 point shooter and be an All Star level or higher player. He doesn’t do enough other stuff to make up for it, and he’s under sized for a SG.
    0 chance Ivey is a bust excluding injury of course. The higher bust player is Chet.

    Not sure he is going to be much more than an elite blocker at the NBA level. I don't see an elite offensive player or defensive player outside of his ability to rack up a number of blocked shots.

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