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Value wise I think he's at peak value right now....As far as next season, I think he gets a little better simply by becoming older and more savvy but I think he's about at his ceiling and I don't see any large leaps going forward...
I’m more of a lurker on this site than a contributor, but I’ve reviewed just about every draft prospect out there and have read all I care to about free agents/max deals (I’m looking at you Chinook and TD21) so I thought I’d change the conversation to DJ for a bit.
I'm interested to hear everybody’s thoughts on his 22-23 season. How close to his ceiling do you think he is? If he continues his development curve, what do you expect to see him add this year. Does he make another all star appearance? What would he need to do to be in the same tier as Morant or Donic? Is that even possible?
Thanks for the discussion Spurstalk!
Value wise I think he's at peak value right now....As far as next season, I think he gets a little better simply by becoming older and more savvy but I think he's about at his ceiling and I don't see any large leaps going forward...
^ agree. I would’ve wanted him to bulk up just a bit to absorb some contacts going to the rim and earn FT. Based on the latest picture, he’s the same body (while Devin bulked up). He cannot be a go-to scorer without baiting people to foul him. To me, he settles too much on a perimeter shot. He needs to attack the rim more.
We all saw it at second half of the year, 26 9 and 9 with more free throws and pull up 3.
He still needs to work on 2 things offensively that I think he could one day end up doing. The first is taking/making more 3s. He needs to make as close to two 3s a game as possible average wise. That would really open up the floor for him. The other thing is he needs to learn how to get to the line. Dude is our primary ball handler, shoots over 18 times a game and gets to the line less than 4 times a game. He needs to bump that up and get some damn freebies. Other than that, this is pretty much his apex
I think taking and making more 3’s is an achievable progression for him next season. His catch and shoot corner 3 looked solid to me last year. If Devin and Keldon take a step forward in driving and dishing, which also seems possible, that could be there more often for DJ.
I’d like to see him draw more contact, while finishing in the lane. Get that And One rate up.
I think he’s done his great leap last season. And while he could still improve, it wouldn’t be as dramatic. He relies too much on crossovers and that often could be picked in a tight, last possession shot. He needs to mix it up and attack the basket maybe, get foul. But his recent picture seems he has the same body type (a big contrast to Devin bulking up). He needs to get stronger to absorb contacts. He was a borderline tier 2, barely. I’m rooting for him to get better, because this team is desperate for a star. Devin looks like he’s gonna make noise. Hopefully we get a real alpha at the draft. I’m really hoping it’s Johnny Davis, maybe Mathurin. It could even come from the late 1st round. Liddell seems to me an overachiever.
I agree with the other posters. It's getting to the line and shooting 3s at a better percentage. Also off the dribble pull up 3s, which we have seen glimpses of. I'm pretty sure he'll be better at doing these things next season, which basically means he has reached his ceiling
I think realistically he can improves his footwork and handling. Also practice more 3s.
https://projectspurs.com/deep-dive-d...ays-ascension/
I got this shooting chart from stat muse via a Project Spurs article
As mentioned in the article, it’s obvious Murray can improve his 3 point shooting from the top of the key and left corner. If Murray is going to remain the point guard I would take any improvement in just one of those areas.
More critical to the success of the team, in my opinion, is Murray must continue to develop his role as a facilitator. What the Spurs missed when White got traded. Why some Spurs fans believe White, not Murray was the more effective point guard. That’s not a one or two offseason fix, but he just needs to get better at the “hockey assists” in simple terms. Making the difficult plays look somewhat easier when setting up teammates. Maybe he’ll never have White’s ability to facilitate but he can continue to improve in that area.
However as the article states, Murray became an All Star for a reason.
Per Project Spurs (Nathan Kudla):
“Often when players start to increase their volume, their efficiency begins to suffer. Not only do you have to start creating your own shots, but you also must start creating for others. So, naturally, when a player is asked to make a jump like that, it’s very reasonable to assume their efficiency will suffer as they start to force the issue more than they have in the past.
For Dejounte, that was not the case at all. Dejounte already had a relatively low turnover percentage last year at only 9.4%, but when you consider that his assist percentage was only 24.7% (putting him in the bottom third at his position), the low turnover percentage could have simply been explained by him just not being asked to create much for others. This season however, Murray’s assist percentage jumped all the way to 38.8% (which is in the 90th percentile amongst point guards per CleaningTheGlass.com). Even more impressive however, is that his turnover percentage only went to 10.2% (82nd percentile amongst point guards).
For context on how impressive that is, there were only four point guards (Luka Doncic is technically a point) with an assist percentage higher than Dejounte, all of them also had a turnover percentage higher than him. Murray went from a relatively low assist player to one of the best assist guys in the league this season all while taking care of the ball better than anyone else near his production.“
Murray also has to continue to grow in his leadership role, which I don’t see why he wouldn’t. I appreciate his no nonsense approach with the traditional media. He assumes accountability. As far as his social media or IG baller persona I’ve just accepted this as who he is. Do his posts help the team? Probably not but do they hurt? Again probably not. This is just the modern athlete’s m.o. We just need to get over any sensitivity we might have. He’s not Kawhi that should be more than enough. He’s a leader on and off the court. He’s not autistic.
Finally, some might want Murray to become more of a go to scorer. More than he already is. I don’t. Murray should be facilitating KJ and Vassell’s development into the 1-2 scoring options on the team. Those 2 should be the focal point of the offense…for now. Perhaps the draft and free agency will alter their roles.
^ agree on a lot. You did not address the issue of his lack of trips to the line. I completely agree on facilitating, BUT comes the 4th quarter and the game is on the line, Murray as the “head of the snake,” should be able to take the team on his shoulder. And a big part of closing the game is getting fouled, which is the easiest way of putting the basket while stopping the clock. I just saw too many crossovers at the end, and hoisting a jumpshot. It works but somewhat predictable.
That’s just it bro, I’m more old school I guess. With the game on the line I want KJ or Vassell to “take the team on his shoulders” not Murray. Not that I disagree with y’all on Murray getting to the line but I want more of the offensive load to go to Vassell and KJ in no particular order. Whoever shows more growth and confidence between those 2 on offense I guess. Even if Murray does improve one of those 3 point shooting zones and/ or getting to the line more effectively I don’t want him increasing his scoring or his role on offense. Just getting better with his role is all.
I’d love to see some improvement in his shooting numbers from 3 and midrange but the biggest potential area of improvement is on defense. We know DJM is capable of being better on D than he was last season. Hopefully his teammates pick up some of the load on offense allowing Murray to put more energy on the defensive end.
If you wan’t Murray to improve surround him with better player. It’s that simple.
Yea his 1on1 defense is terribly overrated
It really is but still elite and swiping, stripping, poking the ball away and pretty good at playing the passing lanes but he is the least of our worries in the defensive end.
Vassell, JRich and Primo are our elite 2/3 defenders. That is a damn problem.
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