I don’t buy an argument suggesting it’s merely rules changes and pace of play that has led to the offensive explosion in recent years. That’s a naively simplistic and incomplete late way of looking at it. Are they part of it? Sure, I could agree to that. But hardly the only reasons.
First, there haven’t been any significant rules changes helping offense in nearly two decades. Defensive three seconds, the change in defensive hand checking, and the restricted half circle for charge calls all were implemented late 90s, early to mid 2000s. It’s not like overall league offensive output suddenly exploded in the mid to late 2000s. In fact, that’s when teams like the Pistons and Spurs had some of the most ridiculous team defensive seasons ever. You want to argue officiating has interpreted defensive rules to the advantage of offense over the past decade, that might be a fair point. But officiating has catered to star and superstar offensive players since Jordan if not before him. And that’s not rules changes anyway. It’s interpretation of the rules.
Pace of play absolutely plays a part in more offense. But we’ve seen offenses of the past play like that, in Phoenix and Denver and Sacramento in the 80s and 90s, even to the detriment of team defense. It’s been done before. It just hasn’t been as league wide before. But sure, it’s a part of it.
The three point shot and small ball line-ups have as much to do with it as pace of play, I’d argue more. 95% of NBA players regardless of position shoots threes now, practices shooting threes. It’s part of the style of play now. And those smallball line-ups to counter a great defensive, shot blocking big man have proliferated across the league as well. Every team in the league employs smallball line-ups. You have smallball line-ups where every player in a unit can shoot the three, you draw out defensive players from the paint and out to the perimeter. That means when the guy with the ball can beat his man defender one on one or in PNR, then more times than not, he’ll have a pretty good scoring opportunity in the paint, at the rim with little or even no shot blocking contest. Why can a guy like Jalen Brunson shoot 54% from two point range when an all time great like Isiah Thomas shot 47% from two point range in his career? It’s not simply “bad defense” in today’s league. It’s not that Brunson is so much more savvy and crafty than Zeke was. It’s fewer shot blocking, interior contests, and the lack of statement, no lay-up, hard fouls now. That’s style of play, not rules changes.
Walt Wesley had a career scoring average under 10 PPG. Never a 20 point scorer. He had a 50 point game in the 70s. Tracy Murray and Toney Delk both dropped 50 burgers late 90s, early 2000s. Not 70 point games, but those are also not Booker or Mitc all star type players either. Crazy scoring games happen, even by unlikely names. The fact that crazier scoring performances have happen more frequently in recent years is a product of a lot of different things, not just pace of play and rules changes, not just bad defense. A lot of things have changed and evolved even in just the past 5-10 years. The league wide proliferated use of the three point shot and how it’s impacted team defense is chief among them, even more relevant to the scoring explosion than any rules changes or any increased pace of play.