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  1. #651
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Our FO has never shown an inkling to trade proven all star talent for better “odds”.
    DeMar DeRozan has entered the chat…

  2. #652
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    I just think folks are underestimating how hard it is to get unprotected picks from anything other than the truly elite teams in the league. It the 2023 draft was the Spurs' goal, they should have pushed to get 2023 swaps/unprotected picks years ago. ATL, Washington, NYK -- those are teams that could still miss the playoffs even without Murray if things don't go according to plan. Minny and NOP are other teams, but they have the advantage of directly competing against a weakened Spurs team for a playoff spot. The Pelicans, with their ability to give up a doubly unprotected pick (their own and LAL's with swap rights), might be the best option.

    Murray for Daniels, NOP's unprotected 2023 first (including LAL swap rights), LAL's 2024/2025 pick and MKE's 2027 pick.

    The Spurs get their young player and three firsts, all unprotected. They never depend on the Pelicans being bad, but they get two different "bites at the apple".
    If the Spurs move Murray this week, their timeline would seem to reset around Vassell and the 19 year olds. If this is apparent to the rest of the league, Spurs should get offers for Poeltl, Johnson, and maybe Richardson at the start of free agency. I'm only spitballing, but I'd guess Spurs would be patient and hold a floor of 2 first round grade assets for Poeltl, 2.5 assets for Johnson, and 1 first round grade asset for Richardson. On Richardson, I think bad teams might offer two picks projected in the 30s, but Spurs should be patient. There will be a first round market for Richardson at the deadline.

    In my mind, a .5 asset is a second, light protections on a pick, a decent young player, or a tradable contract.

    Multiple teams would be interested in Johnson and Poeltl, which could create a compe ive bid.

    I'm interested to see if the Spurs seeks more '23 picks in these trades. This will signal how badly they want to select at the top of the '23 draft.

  3. #653
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    Murray is going to have an insane year. Stop the madness.

  4. #654
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    Over/Under. I'll set the total number of new FRPs acquired by Spurs between now and the '23 deadline at 8.

  5. #655
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    Just spit-balling... but how about a 4-way deal with S&T Bridges to DET, Collins to CHA and DETs unprotected FRP in 2023 going to SA (amongst other things)? That seems to be the only pathway that gets a top-6 pick to SA.
    Detroit’s 2023 FRP is the propert of the OKC Thunder.

  6. #656
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    Just spit-balling... but how about a 4-way deal with S&T Bridges to DET, Collins to CHA and DETs unprotected FRP in 2023 going to SA (amongst other things)? That seems to be the only pathway that gets a top-6 pick to SA.
    Detroit’s 2023 FRP is the property of the OKC Thunder.

  7. #657
    Forum Official Personal Life Coach BacktoBasics's Avatar
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    You don’t stockpile the picks hoping for a #1, you stockpile them hoping for a Kawhi at 15, or a Booker at 13. The more shots at it, the better the odds.
    You already have that in Murray. As least better than you could typically hope for.

  8. #658
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    DeMar DeRozan has entered the chat…
    I’ll concede your point even though I don’t think it’s the same. He was in the Aldridge window and after that it was clearly time to part ways. He’s not the same building block as DJ. Not in my eyes.

  9. #659
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    You already have that in Murray. As least better than you could typically hope for.
    Nope. DJ isn’t even close to Kawhi, nor will he reach that level of All NBA regularity. He may not even be a legit #2 option. I’ll concede Booker, because he’s probably a #2 option.

  10. #660
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    Since we’re just tossing at the wall.

    It’s not crazy to think all this trade chatter and steep asking price is designed to build value in DJ and put a spotlight on him being viewed as a respected and impactful player. Helping any prospective FA or trade chip much more open and motivated to wanting to be paired up with him. A player wanting to come here certainly would help facilitate a S&T etc.

  11. #661
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    Since we’re just tossing at the wall.

    It’s not crazy to think all this trade chatter and steep asking price is designed to build value in DJ and put a spotlight on him being viewed as a respected and impactful player. Helping any prospective FA or trade chip much more open and motivated to wanting to be paired up with him. A player wanting to come here certainly would help facilitate a S&T etc.

  12. #662
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    If the Spurs move Murray this week, their timeline would seem to reset around Vassell and the 19 year olds. If this is apparent to the rest of the league, Spurs should get offers for Poeltl, Johnson, and maybe Richardson at the start of free agency. I'm only spitballing, but I'd guess Spurs would be patient and hold a floor of 2 first round grade assets for Poeltl, 2.5 assets for Johnson, and 1 first round grade asset for Richardson. On Richardson, I think bad teams might offer two picks projected in the 30s, but Spurs should be patient. There will be a first round market for Richardson at the deadline.

    In my mind, a .5 asset is a second, light protections on a pick, a decent young player, or a tradable contract.

    Multiple teams would be interested in Johnson and Poeltl, which could create a compe ive bid.

    I'm interested to see if the Spurs seeks more '23 picks in these trades. This will signal how badly they want to select at the top of the '23 draft.
    I'm a firm believer that timelines don't exist in basketball. You have a mix that you make work, or you don't. I think the Spurs currently have a mix they can try to ignite now, but apparently they might not think so. The fact that guys are young isn't going to mean that they'll be good later. It just means that they'll have to check back in a few years to see if that they another mix they can try igniting. The Spurs know more than anyone that you can have a successful core made up of players who have drastic age gaps. They aren't thinking of Murray's age at all in this trade, I'd suspect, but rather his ceiling. They don't seem to think he's worth building around. I don't necessarily disagree with them if they do. Trading Murray and giving Primo the ball is a move they should make if they truly believe he's worth of it.

  13. #663
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    So looking at good first round picks:

    Pelicans:
    2023 - Pelicans have option to switch with Flakers pick
    2024 - Pelicans have option on Flakers 2024 or 2025 pick

    Knicks:
    2023 first round via Detroit (protected 1-18 until 2024, protected 1-13 in 2025, protected 1-11 in 2026, protected 1-9 in 2027)
    2023 first round via Washington (protected 1-14 in 2023, protected 1-12 in 2024, protected 1-10 in 2025, protected 1-8 in 2026)
    2023 first round pick via Denver (protected 1-14 until 2025)

  14. #664
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    I'm a firm believer that timelines don't exist in basketball. You have a mix that you make work, or you don't. I think the Spurs currently have a mix they can try to ignite now, but apparently they might not think so. The fact that guys are young isn't going to mean that they'll be good later. It just means that they'll have to check back in a few years to see if that they another mix they can try igniting. The Spurs know more than anyone that you can have a successful core made up of players who have drastic age gaps. They aren't thinking of Murray's age at all in this trade, I'd suspect, but rather his ceiling. They don't seem to think he's worth building around. I don't necessarily disagree with them if they do. Trading Murray and giving Primo the ball is a move they should make if they truly believe he's worth of it.

    I hear you on all this. Only pushback is that I'm confident the Spurs FO does believe in timelines.

    As I've said, I don't believe they favor Hinkie style tanking except in the case of generational talent, which they may believe Wembanyama represents. So this Murray trade talk probably does reflect their belief Murray is at or near his ceiling (as you speculate), strong confidence in Primo (as you speculate), and being enamored by top of 2023 draft class (my speculation). Those who believe Klutch is (too heavily) involved are likely correct, too. And it just so happens that there are a lot of desperate teams around the league willing to pay the Spurs' asking price for Murray--so the market dynamics are in the Spurs' favor. They felt the opposite with Leonard... In short, seems like a perfect storm of converging cir stances may be driving Murray trade talk.

    I also wonder--pure speculation---if back channel conversations with Quinn Synder suggest he'd prefer an asset-laden team led by young talent? This is counter-intuitive to me, but not implausible.

  15. #665
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    So looking at good first round picks:

    Pelicans:
    2023 - Pelicans have option to switch with Flakers pick
    2024 - Pelicans have option on Flakers 2024 or 2025 pick

    Knicks:
    2023 first round via Detroit (protected 1-18 until 2024, protected 1-13 in 2025, protected 1-11 in 2026, protected 1-9 in 2027)
    2023 first round via Washington (protected 1-14 in 2023, protected 1-12 in 2024, protected 1-10 in 2025, protected 1-8 in 2026)
    2023 first round pick via Denver (protected 1-14 until 2025)
    This list might be more important relative to Keldon Johnson. Also, Knicks, Wizards, and Kings are worth looking at.

  16. #666
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    I hear you on all this. Only pushback is that I'm confident the Spurs FO does believe in timelines.
    They definitely don't, or at least they definitely haven't historically. That doesn't mean they don't believe in trading away older players, but they know it's okay to have a core of a 36-year-old, a 34-year-old, a 30-year-old and a 20-year-old. They were perfectly fine going with a 32-year-old a 26-year-old and a 20-year-old as a core before Leonard asked out. They'd have no issue with a 26-year-old, a 22-year-old and a 19-year-old being a core.

    If the Spurs were so smart/confident about the 2023 draft, they would not just be trying to make it work right now. Last summer would have been the time they started working on it rather than trading DeRozan for bad salary and a protected future first. They had loads of cap space and young talent. This arguably the worst time to try to get ping-pong balls for the next draft. Earlier would have been better; latter would be better. Now is just bad unless the Spurs' analysis of another team is just on point.

  17. #667
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    So looking at good first round picks:

    Pelicans:
    2023 - Pelicans have option to switch with Flakers pick
    2024 - Pelicans have option on Flakers 2024 or 2025 pick

    Knicks:
    2023 first round via Detroit (protected 1-18 until 2024, protected 1-13 in 2025, protected 1-11 in 2026, protected 1-9 in 2027)
    2023 first round via Washington (protected 1-14 in 2023, protected 1-12 in 2024, protected 1-10 in 2025, protected 1-8 in 2026)
    2023 first round pick via Denver (protected 1-14 until 2025)
    The Pelicans are the single-best team for folks who want to make a trade to increase the Spurs' lottery odds. Houston and OKC aren't going to be part of a trade like this. The only semi-realistic trade that comes close is the one where SA gets Charlotte to unprotect their pick by tanking on Hayward (or more like Rozier). Getting the full lotto odds of two fringe playoff teams is the best they can do right now.

  18. #668
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    So looking at good first round picks:

    Pelicans:
    2023 - Pelicans have option to switch with Flakers pick
    2024 - Pelicans have option on Flakers 2024 or 2025 pick

    Knicks:
    2023 first round via Detroit (protected 1-18 until 2024, protected 1-13 in 2025, protected 1-11 in 2026, protected 1-9 in 2027)
    2023 first round via Washington (protected 1-14 in 2023, protected 1-12 in 2024, protected 1-10 in 2025, protected 1-8 in 2026)
    2023 first round pick via Denver (protected 1-14 until 2025)
    Dont forget the Knicks possess all their own natural picks for the first time in what seems like forever.

  19. #669
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Yeah Harris has no clue.

  20. #670
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    Something like:

    Murray to ATL

    McDermott to Charlotte

    Rozier and Gallo to SAS along with ATL's 2023 unprotected firsts and future compensation from there (no need to keep listing that ) and Charlotte's unprotected pick for 2023.

    The Spurs get three unprotected firsts to add in for a chance to win the lotto, but they take on $96M/4 for Terry to make that work. That's a huge burden, even though Rozier isn't a horrible player and would fit okay in the rotation as a partner or insurance for Primo not being a starting PG.

  21. #671
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    I'm a firm believer that timelines don't exist in basketball. You have a mix that you make work, or you don't. I think the Spurs currently have a mix they can try to ignite now, but apparently they might not think so. The fact that guys are young isn't going to mean that they'll be good later. It just means that they'll have to check back in a few years to see if that they another mix they can try igniting. The Spurs know more than anyone that you can have a successful core made up of players who have drastic age gaps. They aren't thinking of Murray's age at all in this trade, I'd suspect, but rather his ceiling. They don't seem to think he's worth building around. I don't necessarily disagree with them if they do. Trading Murray and giving Primo the ball is a move they should make if they truly believe he's worth of it.
    From a FO perspective I think timeliness only exist in relation to an Alpha centerpiece. If you have a Duncan, KD, Lebron etc you have to compliment that based around their shelf life. From a players perspective guys like DJ who will be max players but are 3rd options the timeline is important to them but much less so for a FO who's trying to cobble a compe ive team together. That's kinda how I see the timeline thing..

  22. #672
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    Something like:

    Murray to ATL

    McDermott to Charlotte

    Rozier and Gallo to SAS along with ATL's 2023 unprotected firsts and future compensation from there (no need to keep listing that ) and Charlotte's unprotected pick for 2023.

    The Spurs get three unprotected firsts to add in for a chance to win the lotto, but they take on $96M/4 for Terry to make that work. That's a huge burden, even though Rozier isn't a horrible player and would fit okay in the rotation as a partner or insurance for Primo not being a starting PG.
    In that scenario you're tanking so should buy Rozier out. No need for Primo's not a PG insurance.

  23. #673
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    In that scenario you're tanking so should buy Rozier out. No need for Primo's not a PG insurance.
    In that scenario, you're trying to run a business and can't just eat $100 Million on a team no one wants to watch. And you still have to develop everyone, or else tanking isn't going to stop anytime soon.

  24. #674
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    In that scenario you're tanking so should buy Rozier out. No need for Primo's not a PG insurance.
    I'm not sure where the cap numbers would be at that point but maybe you could move him on to LA for Westbrook and buy him out to clear cap space for next summer....

  25. #675
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    In that scenario, you're trying to run a business and can't just eat $100 Million on a team no one wants to watch. And you still have to develop everyone, or else tanking isn't going to stop anytime soon.
    Yeah crap didn't see it was a 4 year deal, was thinking Rozier was a couple of years. Don't see how Rozier does anything but get in the way of developing guys though.

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