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Every year there are on average two teams in the league that have at least a 14 game losing streak.
If you think the spurs will have the worst record or second worst record in the league then chances are they will hit the team record for losses.
Jak (if with the team) is probably the only player who will have an impact on wins or losses. Vassell and Keldon will put up numbers in a losing effort that someone else will be able to replicate in this system.
Every year there are on average two teams in the league that have at least a 14 game losing streak.
If you think the spurs will have the worst record or second worst record in the league then chances are they will hit the team record for losses.
Last edited by rascal; 07-18-2022 at 11:05 PM.
You can add Tre Jones(who will be important at pg now) and Sochan(send Keldon back to PF) to that list of a key injury will make it a given the Spurs are in the bottom two in the league.
Zach showed out pretty well last year. He’s like Jak, with a 3 pointer and FTs. His second year, in Portland, he was top 5 in opp FG% in the restricted area.
It's only a matter of time before Jak and Richardson are moved for picks. Maybe they last to the deadline, but I wouldn't bet on it. With Tre Jones as the only true PG on the team and no iso shot creators, I'm taking the under.
You’ll be throwing your money away. The Spurs always pick up extra wins after the trade deadline from other teams who goin the tank. If you’re not factoring that in, you’re doing it wrong.
The Spurs will also pick up extra Ls by resting players on back to backs, but yeah I don't think the under is a good bet as long as Poeltl is still on the team. Also people forget that most of the young guys will probably have upped their game quite a bit.
This year will be different.
The Murray trade and not targeting any player in free agency that can add wins signals the front office is playing for a high lottery pick.
No matter what Pop says, with VW the obvious prize in the draft the Spurs are not stupid to win meaningless games down the stretch.
I mean, last year was even easier at 28.5, and you still had ers taking the under. Posters here thought we’d win 15 games with DeRozan gone.
It wouldn’t shock me to see both Keldon and Vassell average 20 + next year. People are sleeping on Vassell. er shoots well from everywhere. He’s a true 3 level scorer, and he’ll get a lot more touches now with both DJ and Sad Lonnie gone.
The 23.5 is just based on the notion that the spurs are in rebuild but doesn't take into account certain variables. The first one has already been mentioned and that pertains to the post-trade deadline tank that certain organizations always partake in and the other is that the Spurs are a team coached to compete. There's enough talent on this team to garnish some unexpected wins here and there against teams that will come into their games against the Spurs expecting a win. I'd definitely take the over.
That’s 100% wrong. Vegas works one way on any kind of betting line: making the money come down even on both sides. That’s it. That’s the big secret to Vegas betting lines. If they’re stupid, it’s because people are betting stupidly. The over has been a pretty good bet for most of the last 25 years, since the public knows almost nothing about SA, and so they tend to under rate and under bet them.
i never wrote that Vegas is the one determining the record. i'm very much aware as to how the lines are set in order to mitigate risk i just assumed that i didn't have to spell that out for anyone because most posters probably know this. perhaps it was just sloppy writing on my part. still, the larger point was in the latter part of my post.
Definitely over. But it could be 28 wins. It’s going to be a rough season.
Definitely under if spurs want that top3 pick
Do you have supporting evidence regarding the over being a strong bet for the Spurs?
They run fairly simple yet sophisticated models even for an illiquid market like futures betting. I interviewed for a trading role with FanDuel last fall and got some insight into their market making.
Sure the sports books want even money on both sides so they win no matter what, but they still need to be as accurate as they can on the initial line. If it's way off, a sharp will take a bunch of action on one side and the sports book might not get enough action on the other side to balance it out. At least not without moving the line a bunch, at which point they're basically conceding a high probability of defeat to the sharp anyway.
Anyone see betting lines for worst end-of-season record? I use mybookie.ag and they don't have anything like that.
Do you remember who or have the time to go find that thread? Would be interested to see who took the under on 28.5 games.
I definately did
Spurs could end up with the worst record in the league this year.
It remains to be seen what happens. One injury to KJ, DV or Poetl and the season is likely going down fast.
The bottom teams from last year have got a lot more talent right now than the Spurs have.
23.5 sounds pretty feasible to me. But, I'm not a betting man.
did you see how often he used to play forbes?
that was idiocy, not trying to tank
These type of bets the genral public are not on, it's the knowledgeable big money gamblers who are on these bets and Vegas makes the line down the middle on what they will bet on so the line is accurate as to expected results.
Spurs are likely to win 23/24 games +- 3 games.
Here's a nugget: rich gamblers aren't any smarter than the general public, they just get better comps for getting fleeced for more $$$.
Here is another nugget. It’s not all public money. Some rich gamblers have systems that are basically ins utional money running models and algorithms the same way the house does.
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