Who do you Democrats want to see?
If I'm a strategist, the first thing that comes to my mind is Newsom-Whitmer ticket. You get a popular leader from the biggest state/biggest economy of the country who has some blue dog appeal, and you get a term-limited, successful electoral juggernaut and Michigander woman VP for purple state appeal in the upper Midwest.
Still going to be tough to beat DeSantis in what will likely be a red wave environment considering how the 2022 midterms went and which Senate seats are at stake in 2024, but still there's a chance I suppose.
Any other options?
Newsom-Big Gretch is too white and not diverse enough, tbh…
Newsom-token minority (ideally a gay Mexican national or as close to that as possible) would be ideal, tbh, but I don’t think Newsom is going to run following a (D) president. I have him penned for 2028…
What I really wonder is what happens in the GOP if Biden runs for re-election and the economy doesn’t ramp up.
Trump and DeSantis are shoe-ins, but there’s a distinct possibility that Trump might end up in jail, and I’m curious to know who’s going to challenge DeSantis in the ‘moderate-Nazi’ role. Wonder if Abbott would also jump into the fray into what should be an easy win for Republicans.
Still a long time to go though…
Who cares? Think about the Electoral College... you don't need Latinos anymore to win, tbh... we've reached the era of the white suburban upper class / upper middle class liberal.
Suburban class white liberals are the largest % demographic to have received the jab, and the jab slowly but surely changes the molecules in your brain to think more along the lines with the liberals.
So what if you lose AZ, NV, even NM... (FL/TX are no longer in play, tbh)... if you win MI, WI, and PA, you still get over 270 easily. VA Is not going back red. And you still have a chance in Georgia.
Right now I think it's DeSantis's to lose if Trump does wind up in jail. He has good momentum right now. If the economy is not shaky in 2024 I think Biden should pull it off again
This is exactly where GOP and Dems differ. GOP are in a desperate battle to not compromise and remain relevant due to dwindling demographics, and the unavoidable end of the white voting majority.
Dems need to strengthen their Hispanic and Asian voting blocks looking at the future.
The Dems need to look into converting Hispanics to atheism or Buddhism or something because status quo is that whites are going atheist in record numbers and Asians are already relatively atheist anyway, but Hispanic religion % needle is never going to move... that voter bloc is lost with the Dems long term, especially as the old ancestral Hispanic D's die off and the young right wing Hispanic generation takes predominence.
Just look at Florida and even to an extent what's going on in NV and AZ. It's not just Cubans. Cuban voters in FL only changed 1% to the right between 2018, 2020 and 2022. It was the other Latinos... the Mexicans and Puerto Ricans that flipped hard right, from under 30% to well over 50% GOP in the state of FL. That's the alarming trend for the DNC that is likely to carry nationwide long term.
Keep running up the score with white elites with big money, Asians, blacks, and suburban women... keep pushing Roe v Wade... keep pushing how bad QAnon is, etc... that's the ticket to success for the Dems. Because WI, MI, PA and even Ohio and Georgia aren't going to be Hispanic enough long term to worry too hard about the electoral college.
This is another take. I’m Latino (not Cuban), this is completely off.
Religion is nowhere near as important to that block as economic security and citizenship is a large part of that. They’re largely on the bottom side of the food chain, and as long as the GOP keeps the xenophobia up, they’re going to continue voting blue. This is no more clear than in California and New York, states with the largest populations of Mexicans and Puerto Ricans in the US.
Garnering that vote en masse will require changes to the GOP that so far they’re unwilling to do…
CA and NY Latinos voting blue is more a function of them being hyper urbanized rather than more suburban, exurban, or rural... like in TX/AZ/NV/NM and to some extent FL.
The McConnell's and Bush's and Romney's of the world will never figure out that the xenophobia doesn't work, and Trump shot himself in the foot with his 2015 comments.
But DeSantis has a clean state on that topic and the new era of younger conservatives are pro Hispanic. Being pro-border security and anti-drug pushing is not being anti-Latino. Also, Latinos and Latinas are naturally socially conservative and Spanish is a two-gender romantic language and culture fine-engrained and that will never change. So, for instance, drag queens in schools and woke white lib s pushing the "LatinX" crap are pretty much universally rejected by all Latino sub-demographics.
Bush Jr won the Latino vote, smh… again, I know you’re trying to talk yourself into DeSantis pluses, but he’s a relative unknown outside of Florida and what’s known about him is mostly that he’s a Trump wannabe.
Not saying he would do bad with Latinos, but he’ll have to earn their vote by dropping the xenophobia Trump instilled in his campaign. After all, ‘open borders’ and ‘horde of rapists and criminals’ was one of the pillars of his campaign…
GWB never "won" the Latino vote outright. He got 43% in 2004 and 34% in 2000. And the 43% in 2004 proved enough to pick off not only Nevada but also New Mexico. Which I fully believe will flip red next election and keep zooming right. Take a quick look at NYT or whatever and look how close that governor race ended up being. The state is flipping red in 2024. Albuquerque is going to be West Miami pretty soon. The Latino base there is just about as fed up with Democrat policy on crime, drugs and wokism as in Miami.
I meant he won it in Florida (‘04). Obviously this was coming off 9/11 so you could argue it was a one off. Florida is going to remain a tossup for a while, especially on presidential elections.
Wrong
Florida will be R+15 or stronger in 2024 at the POTUS level regardless of whether it's Trump or DeSantis.
Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, possibly New York (outside chance) are the battlegrounds...
I want Hillary to run again.
I want it to snow in Texas in July too...
Newsom seems like a logical choice for the dems. He tiptoes in and out of progressive ideals, like reproductive rights, legalizing and decriminalizing marijuana use, LGBTQ rights, environmental policy. But it also feels like he’s open to some conservative policy as well when it comes more to businesses and economy. Charismatic enough and good enough in front of the camera for moderates on both sides, independents, and maybe even some less than extreme republicans. He’s also at a good age. Dems would be better served with him as candidate rather than Old Joe.
It feels like Whitmer would turn off a lot of moderates and independents. Her national perception alone based off stuff that Trump said about her makes her an easy target for criticism, whether justifiable or not. And voting can often be swayed merely by perception. I think she’d be a poor choice. And I’m a democrat leaning Michigan citizen. Maybe she doesn’t sink a presidential campaign, but she simply isn’t likely to help get a more significant number of votes.
If dems continue the age of inclusive politics by adding someone other than another white male to the ticket, I’d look at Amy Klobuchar. Smart, well liked generally (publicly in the media), has shown really good leadership, in favor of bipartisan politics. I don’t what other potential candidate should there would, if they’d look for a black or Hispanics male politician, a LGBQT politician, or whatever. But Klobuchar would be a strong option imo, and at least not off the top that I can think of, she isn’t too progressive or too radical to turn away voters from the middle.
Did you get a single prediction right Tuesday?
Yes. Plenty. More than half, actually.
I think you're completely wrong about this. I can see that happening if Biden is the candidate, but that's a state Obama carried comfortably twice not long ago.
Fake newsYes. Plenty. More than half, actually.
Second time wasn't "comfortable" but in any case Florida didn't begin the right zoom until late 2018. I was saying back then, the Gillum vs. DeSantis race will decide which party controls that state long term, and I was right. If Gillum had won, it would have gone blue in 2020 and even bluer in 2022. And DeSantis won that by the skin of his teeth, just 4 years ago.
I think the same of Arizona. Now, Hobbs isn't as far left as Gillum probably, but it's the same concept. If Hobbs wins, AZ will likely be a purple slightly leaning blue state for years to come, with a shot the GOP can flip it in a favorable national environment, but similar to the way Florida used to be.
If Lake wins, AZ will be a red state that will keep trending redder and redder, Lake will abolish the personal income tax in AZ, conservative Californians left there will have a convenient place to relocate to (like the GOP New Yorkers and New Englanders that moved to Florida in the past 4 years) and AZ will be as good as gone for the Democrats just like Florida even as soon as 2024. Sinema and the AZ electoral votes will be essentially off the map for blue team in 2024 and beyond. If Kelly wins re-election now he's out in '28.
No, he did win it fairly comfortably. Twice. And that's the whole point. Candidates matter.
You predicted 251 Republicans in the House. Each of those wrong seat calls will count, so include those in your final tally.Yes. Plenty. More than half, actually.
Where people relocate to matters as well. The mass migration from NY and states to the northeast of NY to Florida is what turned Florida from pink to ruby red and it isn't changing back. But hey, at least New Hampshire went D+11%, so there's solace in that for you guys.
Same thing will happen with CA GOP -> AZ if and when Lake wins. Her winning alone will guarantee she'll permanently jimmy the election system there to make it nearly impossible for Dems to win all but the safest races in the first place, and then you factor in the policy changes and inevitable relocations from right wingers on the west coast to AZ, it will be safe red as well. If and only if Lake wins.
So off by 25-30... fine. The media even didn't predict such a meltdown for the GOP especially in the House.
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