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I like him. I've just started watching him and several other guys slated in the last half of the first round. I've got him mid 20's right now but he's a guy that's probably going to be higher by draft time.
He’s 18, and in a grown man’s league, but last year in France, his numbers were 13.9p/3.5r/2.5a. Getting buzz as a FRP.
I like him. I've just started watching him and several other guys slated in the last half of the first round. I've got him mid 20's right now but he's a guy that's probably going to be higher by draft time.
If we get a mid to late first somehow, Baba Miller would be a guy to look at.
I’m curious who the spurs might prioritize and draft if there picking at let’s say 3 through five. I guess more specifically I’m curious if anyone thinks either of the Thompson twins would be picked by the Spurs. They seem to be right around where we are somewhat more likely to pick unless we get lucky.
For me it seems like: Victor and if we don’t strike gold with him or Scoot, then either roll the dice on one of these other guys, or reach for Anthony Black because he seems Spurs material, so to speak. Obviously people will rise and fall, but it’s a long ass time to the draft, and there isn’t much else to talk about….
Help me out here.
Where do they need to end up to land the 2nd pick?
Wouldn't it be - worst record in the league if someone else wins the lottery or second worse record if the the team with the worst record wins the lottery?
If Spurs finish 3 or 4th in the standings but another team wins the lottery the best they can do is 4th or 5th.
Do I have that right?
There's no winning the 2nd pick for Scoot. To get 2nd pick they'd have to be the worst team in the league and not win the lottery.
I don't see that happening.
Right now today if they're 4th or 5th I reach for Black.
3rd I'd take Amen.
Still early though.
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Amen Thompson
4. Cam Whitmore
5. Nick Smith Jr
6. Ausar Thompson
7. Brandon Miller
8. Keyonte George
9. Jarace Walker
10. Anthony Black
3,4, and 5 are really in the same tier to me (assuming health for Smith)
This is incorrect. The odds are dynamic and multiple teams can move up or down throughout the process.
based on current standings:
literally anybody in the lottery could luck out and land any pick between 1-4, though those odds are pretty tiny. i do find it bizarre that a team like minnesota can land picks 1-4 but absolutely cannot land 5-13
Last edited by spurraider21; 01-31-2023 at 02:32 PM.
Okay. I was under the belief that after 1 it was by record.
Didn’t realize multiple spots were up from grab.
Yeah, regardless we are well positioned to be a bottom 4 team. Magic reached a turning point with the return of Isaac. They could easily be buyers at the deadline. Their wing/front line core is pretty intriguing with Wagner, Banchero, WCJ, Bol Bol, Isaac. No one else will catch us. I really like the play-in format as it is helping keep teams honest down the stretch.
Yup, spots 1-4 are randomly chosen depending on record (worst to best), and the rest (5-14) are strictly by position. Base odds:
Black feels like Derrick White to me for some reason. I like Black but wonder if he’ll have enough fire. To me we need a player to drive, kick, get to the rim etc. Amen seems to have special skills but man, that jumper…yikes. His form is horrible. Black isn’t a great shooter but better.
But hey, I would roll the dice with Amen under Pop and see what happens if we end up around 3 or 4, generally speaking. Not a super safe bet but we’ll see. Like you said, lots of time.
And I find it odd that our odds of drafting 7th are half that of drafting first. And that we have higher statistical odds of drafting 5th or 6th, than first. Seems the odds should guarantee a top 5 at worst for the teams in the bottom 5. I agree you should disincentivize tanking by distributing the odds, especially of the top 3 picks, but also not let teams that are abominable pick outside of the top 5 to maybe prevent annual seasons with the worst records. For nothing else for continued fan involvement in those teams.based on current standings:
literally anybody in the lottery could luck out and land any pick between 1-4, though those odds are pretty tiny. i do find it bizarre that a team like minnesota can land picks 1-4 but absolutely cannot land 5-13
System seems broken
We could pick that low, but the reality is that the #1 overall pick with the flat odds has gone to positions 7, 3, 2, 2. The flattened odds mean that literally no one is tearing their team apart like Philly did over 5 seasons for those 25% odds that no longer exist. It’s not worth it. Even Detroit and Houston have ac ulated young talent. Since the first year, 2019, only one team starting in the top 4 has dropped 3 spots. 2019 was kind of a bloodbath, though. 3 teams jumped WAY up, causing a cascade of 5 teams from inside and outside the top 4 to drop 3 spots each.
When you increase the odds of lower ranked teams to jump into the top 4, you also increase the odds of top 4 teams to drop. There is no perfect system, and this is better than what came before.
Ppl need to understand that with the result of each simulation the odds change.
You can't guarantee that the teams with the bottom 5 records take the top 5 spots, because that effectively means no team can pick 1-5 unless they finish bottom 5, which reduces the lottery to 5 teams and thus strongly encourages tanking. The current system seems to me like a good compromise between randomness (to disincentivize speculation) and fairness (to try to level the playing field). If there's one thing that I would try to do, is put a cap on the number of picks a team can get in a given time frame, to punish perennial tankers like Philly did or Houston is doing now. That could be easy to implement by simply awarding lottery balls up to a maximum per window (make it 3 years, for instance), which means no team can abuse the system. Other than that, I like it.
The new system makes a lot of sense, it just needs safeguards against perma-tankers like Houston and Detroit. Something like: you're third consecutive year as a bottom 3 team, you are excluded from the top 3 picks. A fourth straight year, you are excluded from the top 4 picks, etc.
One could argue it is overly punitive and doesn't allow teams to climb out of the bottom, but you should be able to make it work with 3-4 straight years of Top 5 picks.
Yeah, one thing some people seem to confuse is that though the Lottery Results are revealed backwards, they take place from 1-4. When #1 is picked, the odds for the rest of the draft change dramatically, then #2 and so on. A team with the worst record who does not get the #1 pick then has that 14.0% redistributed amongst the remaining possibilities in some way I'm too lazy to do the math on right now. But that occurs 3 times before the 4th pick. I'm sure there is a paper on it somewhere.
I really like this and truthfully we need 3 years in the lottery to build a decent core but at some point you can’t blame everyone else for the reasons you suck and the Spurs inability to attract decent free agents needs to be addressed.
How do you address that?
Tweak the culture. San Antonio is a 3rd rate US city but so is Cleveland, Utah, Detroit, Memphis maybe even Philly.
We don’t need to rebrand but obviously there is something not clicking.
Yes, which is why I'm saying there should be a statistical chance for the top 5 or so positions to get any of the top 5 spots, with equal weight for the top 3 so that no one team has any higher odds of those 3 thereby reducing tanking but still guaranteeing that the bad teams still get the best picks. There's zero business for a team drafting 7th that finishes bottom 3. Too often too much talent disparity between pick 1-3 and pick 5-7. Worst teams should be guaranteed a top 5 pick while not being guaranteed the overall top choice. Somebody smarter than me could work those mathematics out for draft balls.
Yeah, I personnally think there should be an algorythm taking into account any team's picks from last 3 years to determine its odds on the next draft.
Instead of looking at it like the current odds say 6th is the most likely current outcome by slot, I view it like there's a 67% chance of a top 5 pick.
Highest floor possible has always been the key this season, so that when the league screws them out of the big two, they at least have their pick of the litter.
Unfortunately, that would still probably mean (Amen) Thompson first, Black second given that they come off as "culture" fits and they're obsessed with big guards/wings who can't shoot and lack lead creator type skillsets.
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