Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson

**mo7888** · 02-04-2023

I get both of your points of view guys, but I disagree that GMs have that much of a different perception about like the first 4-5 or even down to first 8 picks or so... They may slightly disagree about the order of these gus but rarely about the guys themselves.

Late mock drafts always end up pretty much on point. People thought Sochan could be our man with the 9th pick and he did.. As a matter of fact, I remember some people here having the exact same perspective as you guys, last draft, and wanting to trade down for CHA 13 & 15 because they were seeing not that much of a difference from 9 to 13 or 15... then get two good players instead of one.

Would you trade Sochan now for last draft 13 & 15...? 2 good players don't equal one great player. You can find good players around, it's harder to find real difference makers. Mock drafts are gonna get refined and players are gonna emerge ahead of the pack as clear top 4-5...

That's the reason why I don't first think you SHOUD trade down 2 or 3 for 6+9, way too risky and you lmght regret it. Just pick you horse and live with it, and I also do'nt believe other teams would perceive top 8-9 players differently than anyone would..

After that zone, that's a different story.

To answer the Sochan question- no I wouldn't, but I'd also point out that it's not apples to apples to ask that question now after we've seen them play in the league and had the chance to evaluate them.

Also, you don't think we should trade down from #3 AND you don't think anyone would trade up to #3 because everyone has the same evaluation for the top 8-9? That's kind of mutually exclusive 'logic' isn't it?

**Ariel** · 02-04-2023

You don't have to go very far to find a counterexample to your point. Last year, Ivey was a consensus no. 4 pick. Yet, Sacramento chose to take Keegan Murray instead, who probably no other team would have taken at that spot. Until about an hour from the draft, the world's most trusted NBA insider (Woj) was claiming that Orlando would take Jabari Smith Jr no. 1, and not Banchero who ended up being their choice.
Another interesting example comes from the 2017 draft. Boston had the no. 1 pick, and Markelle Fultz was supposed to be their target. Since Philadelphia was desperate to get Fultz, they traded up to no. 1 to land him, and Boston took Jason Tatum with no. 3. Years later, it was revealed that Ainge planned to take Tatum all along even if he had kept no. 1, but knowing Philadelphia's urge he used it to his advantage and managed to get an extra asset from them on top of the player he would have gotten anyways.
So the point is, unanimous consensus is extremely rare, and more often than not you'll find someone with a different perspective on things than yours.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

GMs are much more influenced by outside opinions than some think. Consensus among top picks is much more manufactured than we think.

Last year, Jabari Smith was 'decided' as a top one it two ouch in every NCAA broadcast since early in the season. By the time the draft rolled around, this was such conventional wisdom that there was no way he'd drop (barring) the incredibly unusual, despite the appearance to many that he wasn't more than a two dimensional player.

Mock drafts become a repe ive circle jerk. The pundits at ESPN have no idea what they're talking about... But mostly what happens is that everyone is protecting their phony baloney jobs. If a GM takes a risk and takes Franz Wagner over Jonathan Kuminga, he's instantly on the hot seat. GMs answer to their owners and they both, in a certain sense, answer to the fans, who are reacting to the same media generated circle jerk bull that's been circulated as the truth for a while.

This is why braver FOs should trade down more often, but it rarely happens because fans mutiny.

**Ariel** · 02-04-2023

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1621881689600413696

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

I wonder if anyone has mock drafts this time last year. Conference play is really heating up and the tournament looms. This time last year I think we had players on the radar but it wasn't until ur NCAAT that players started rising. Guys like Mathurin and Sochan. I suspect we'll see some movement.

Just watched the end of IU-Purdue. Zach Edey is a monster. I expect he could get lottery interest despite this era. Kessler having success will help him, and Mark Williams showing success now.

Trayce Jackson-Davis is still my guy. He's a late first pick. Never developed that J and is really old coming out, but he's comparable to Brandon Clarke. Superior around the room, tremendous help side shot blocker, mobile.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Ariel

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1621881689600413696

Again this is a draft, at least where it now stands, where the 3-9 picks or so are not worth those picks. It's like there's no Tier 3 at all. Meanwhile later picks like Anthony Black and Grady are intriguing where they are.

**heyheymymy** · 02-04-2023

seriously 8, 9, and 10 look better than 5, 6, and 7 (and really 2, 3, and 4 even?) take but damn.

I don't know but 2-7 feels like a dead zone though I do like Brandon Miller just not so high. Give me Wemby with #1 or give me 8-10 with a trade back. I will say Spurs could turn Brandon Miller into something nasty.

**heyheymymy** · 02-04-2023

oh well it'll shuffle up and down a million times even before the tourney

**JPB** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Ariel

You don't have to go very far to find a counterexample to your point. Last year, Ivey was a consensus no. 4 pick. Yet, Sacramento chose to take Keegan Murray instead, who probably no other team would have taken at that spot. Until about an hour from the draft, the world's most trusted NBA insider (Woj) was claiming that Orlando would take Jabari Smith Jr no. 1, and not Banchero who ended up being their choice.
Another interesting example comes from the 2017 draft. Boston had the no. 1 pick, and Markelle Fultz was supposed to be their target. Since Philadelphia was desperate to get Fultz, they traded up to no. 1 to land him, and Boston took Jason Tatum with no. 3. Years later, it was revealed that Ainge planned to take Tatum all along even if he had kept no. 1, but knowing Philadelphia's urge he used it to his advantage and managed to get an extra asset from them on top of the player he would have gotten anyways.
So the point is, unanimous consensus is extremely rare, and more often than not you'll find someone with a different perspective on things than yours.

Thats' why I said "slightly" different... There's no players ultimately pictured at 3 who ended up at 9 in the drafts you mention. And why I wouldn't trade 3 for 6 and 9 and many teams, if any, would. You don't wanna be THAT team who missed THAT guy.

**JPB** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Mr. Body

GMs are much more influenced by outside opinions than some think. Consensus among top picks is much more manufactured than we think.

Last year, Jabari Smith was 'decided' as a top one it two ouch in every NCAA broadcast since early in the season. By the time the draft rolled around, this was such conventional wisdom that there was no way he'd drop (barring) the incredibly unusual, despite the appearance to many that he wasn't more than a two dimensional player.

Mock drafts become a repe ive circle jerk. The pundits at ESPN have no idea what they're talking about... But mostly what happens is that everyone is protecting their phony baloney jobs. If a GM takes a risk and takes Franz Wagner over Jonathan Kuminga, he's instantly on the hot seat. GMs answer to their owners and they both, in a certain sense, answer to the fans, who are reacting to the same media generated circle jerk bull that's been circulated as the truth for a while.

This is why braver FOs should trade down more often, but it rarely happens because fans mutiny.

I don't know, but could be interesting to check the last 5 or 10 drafts and see if trading 3 for 6 and 9 was worth it. And to see by next draft if it still is...

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by JPB

I don't know, but could be interesting to check the last 5 or 10 drafts and see if trading 3 for 6 and 9 was worth it. And to see by next draft if it still is...

I don't think that would really tell the story, because it depends on what those individual teams would take. A bad franchise is almost always going to pick a bad player or ruin a good prospect.

I'll stand by trading Scoot away if we get #2 unless things change. Trading down some spots and getting future draft capital. A later draft will likely be better than this one.

Also, keep in mind how higher draft picks get to be pretty expensive.

**JPB** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by mo7888

To answer the Sochan question- no I wouldn't, but I'd also point out that it's not apples to apples to ask that question now after we've seen them play in the league and had the chance to evaluate them.

Also, you don't think we should trade down from #3 AND you don't think anyone would trade up to #3 because everyone has the same evaluation for the top 8-9? That's kind of mutually exclusive 'logic' isn't it?

Maybe I wasn't clear (seems it is

), but I didn't say these teams wouldn't try to trade up, and they actually probably would because, as I precisely said and which was my point, they have the same players evaluation.

And about Sochan... you're right, you can't never really know, but as I also said, pick your horse, trust your scouting and live with it (there's always a part of chance as well) because it can be a hit and you didn't want to miss that guy...

Would have the spurs traded down, we'd all be furious about it now, but probably less than if sochan wasn't that good...

**JPB** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Mr. Body

I don't think that would really tell the story, because it depends on what those individual teams would take. A bad franchise is almost always going to pick a bad player or ruin a good prospect.

I'll stand by trading Scoot away if we get #2 unless things change. Trading down some spots and getting future draft capital. A later draft will likely be better than this one.

Also, keep in mind how higher draft picks get to be pretty expensive.

That's where we'll really disagree. You know what you can get, you don't what you may in the future... I take Scoot if he's there, spcially if you consider how desperate spurs are for talent, scoring and a PG.

We'll have to let a few months pass, and see if Scoot is still the potential superstar he's projected to be, but if he is... Nah, you can't pass.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by JPB

That's where we'll really disagree. You know what you can get, you don't what you may in the future... I take Scoot if he's there, spcially if you consider how desperate spurs are for talent, scoring and a PG.

We'll have to let a few months pass, and see if Scoot is still the potential superstar he's projected to be, but if he is... Nah, you can't pass.

Oh no, I definitely wouldn't take Henderson if I'm the Spurs. Are you kidding? What a waste of a high pick like that.

**Dejounte** · 02-04-2023

Was skeptical at first about Scoot. And I’m the guy who goes against the consensus when there are valid reasons. Scoot’s got my seal of approval. He’s not a generational prospect by any means. But he looks closer to what a franchise is looking for when you’re picking that high than most of the guys in the lottery.

**Ariel** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by JPB

Thats' why I said "slightly" different... There's no players ultimately pictured at 3 who ended up at 9 in the drafts you mention. And why I wouldn't trade 3 for 6 and 9 and many teams, if any, would. You don't wanna be THAT team who missed THAT guy.

But your argument is completely fallacious, because you'd be taking someone else's players, which will in all likelihood won't be those you'd take. Furthermore, you may end up still taking your OWN target with the lower pick, because the other party may be gunning for someone else, as illustrated by the swap between no. 6 (Robert "Tractor" Traylor) for no. 9 (Dirk Nowitzi) in the 1998 NBA draft, or no. 1 (Markelle Fultz) for no. 3 (Jason Tatum) in the 2017 NBA draft, where Dallas and Boston respectively traded down AND STILL LANDED THEIR TARGET. It's a bet, sure, but it doesn't mean it's completely blind, you can do your own assessments on the chances that your target is gone and, even if it is, who it is you're likely to take in that case, making an informed and smart decision. And, as always, we're dealing with probabilities so my point is that, if they check out, then you shouldn't be afraid to depart from your conviction just because consensus says otherwise.
In this case, no one is saying to trade back blindly, leaving a perceived much better player for 2 lesser ones, on count of quan y. What we're saying is, if after a thorough evaluation of the class, you come to the conclusion that (to you) there is not much difference between a pool of players, it's a better strategy to trade down and get more chances at an even pool of talent, than it is to stand pat on sheer fear of making a mistake. That's the wrong strategy 100 times out of 100. Now if you're convinced you're taking the better player, sure, keep the pick and take your guy. But that's not what we're arguing here, at least not me.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

If you like Eric Bledsoe and Kemba Walker, you'll love Scoot Henderson. Adding the possibility of being a prima donna, maybe Steve Francis.

**Dejounte** · 02-04-2023

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.

**The Truth #6** · 02-04-2023

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Dejounte

Scoot looks like CP3 on steroids (by that I mean more athletic, and not necessarily a better version). Sounds like it contradicts what I said about him not being a generational prospect since CP3 is soon to be an NBA legend, but generational to me would be NBA landscape-changing players. Curry, MJ, Timmy, LeBron…. The thing with building around non-generational (usually average sized) point guards though is they need a stronger supporting cast than say if you were building around wings or bigs. So if the Spurs land Scoot, they need to pair him quickly with other stars or he ends up like winless guys like Lillard, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd (before pairing with Dirk), the list goes on.

This is seriously delusional.

**Dejounte** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Mr. Body

This is seriously delusional.

Dude, leave me alone. This is your typical tirade whenever you feel strongly about something.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by The Truth #6

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

He's ing himself over GLeague stats, including Asst:TO in a lunch pail league, then has the guys to compare his stat block to Derrick Rose, who... was not in the GLeague.

Just loopy.

Undersized shooting guards who depend on speed and strength, who shoot a lot and aren't good shooters... Everyone's overrating him because everyone in this class was overrated and they haven't adjusted. They also haven't learned their goddamn lesson with Ignite.

**Mr. Body** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by Dejounte

Dude, leave me alone. This is your typical tirade whenever you feel strongly about something.

You just compared him to Chris Paul. That's astounding.

**exstatic** · 02-04-2023

Originally Posted by The Truth #6

Saw some people referring to Dean on Draft. Interestingly, on his website he has Scoot as the better prospect than Victor, and sees Victor as another Prozingis.

That was in July, pre Ignite games, pre this season. On Twitter recently, he seemed to walk that back.

2026 Draft is going to be crazy

Cam Boozer > Wemby
Cooper Flagg > Scoot
Jayden Quaintance > Thompsons

And rest of class is probably better too bc 2023 is fairly thin on NCAA talent.

BTW, he seems to have cooled on Scoot in the intervening months.

**JPB** · 02-04-2023

Lebron, Giannis, Durant, Curry... marveled at the kid but Wemby is just another Porzingis. These guys don't even watch BB.

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