Draft projects to watch besides Wembanyama & Henderson

[Dejounte]

The difference between Patrick Williams and Rupert is the former plays a more premium position.

Random thought: If the Spurs fall out of the top 4 and the Magic don't leapfrog them, I could see them trying to either consolidate their own pick plus the Bulls one or their own pick plus Suggs for the Spurs pick and maybe Wesley.

I wouldn't have interest in Suggs. Durability concerns, can't shoot or run an offense and relatively expensive, but by all accounts "Spurs material" and would somewhat fit a positional need.

Might not be so premium but Rupert is a ton more skilled.

[Mr. Body]

The difference between Patrick Williams and Rupert is the former plays a more premium position.

Random thought: If the Spurs fall out of the top 4 and the Magic don't leapfrog them, I could see them trying to either consolidate their own pick plus the Bulls one or their own pick plus Suggs for the Spurs pick and maybe Wesley.

I wouldn't have interest in Suggs. Durability concerns, can't shoot or run an offense and relatively expensive, but by all accounts "Spurs material" and would somewhat fit a positional need.

A number of us like the idea of trading down with the Magic, at least exploring the idea.

I just don't know if the Spurs are in acquisition mode, meaning getting players by using assets. (Picking up waiver wire dudes is another matter, or expiring veterans.)

I'm really becoming aware of the crazy crunch the Spurs will be facing in the next few years. At the end of next year, really. If they have two rookies this draft year, then they're about to have three draft picks in each of the next two years, probably, and just in the first rounds.

Definitely not saying they wouldn't nab a promising player who maybe is underdeveloped. They're just in wildly new territory.

[TD 21]

A number of us like the idea of trading down with the Magic, at least exploring the idea.

I just don't know if the Spurs are in acquisition mode, meaning getting players by using assets. (Picking up waiver wire dudes is another matter, or expiring veterans.)

I'm really becoming aware of the crazy crunch the Spurs will be facing in the next few years. At the end of next year, really. If they have two rookies this draft year, then they're about to have three draft picks in each of the next two years, probably, and just in the first rounds.

Definitely not saying they wouldn't nab a promising player who maybe is underdeveloped. They're just in wildly new territory.

Yeah, definitely that's a consideration.

I didn't say the Spurs would necessarily be interested, just that if that scenario plays out, I could see the Magic making those offers.

Someone like Walker, for example, who probably has an elite role player ceiling, could be more appealing to a team with a centerpiece and three core players than to a team still in search of those things.

[The Truth #6]

Might not be so premium but Rupert is a ton more skilled.

I'm getting up to speed with Rupert. Can you share what you like about him?

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, definitely that's a consideration.

I didn't say the Spurs would necessarily be interested, just that if that scenario plays out, I could see the Magic making those offers.

Someone like Walker, for example, who probably has an elite role player ceiling, could be more appealing to a team with a centerpiece and three core players than to a team still in search of those things.

There has to be a point where the team consolidates draft capital and turns it back into actual existing players. The alternatives are to sell the picks -- which probably happens with second rounders -- and to flip them forward, which I think they may very capably do in the next couple of years.

But it's such a new and odd phenomenon, and one that I'm curious to see how OKC handles it. I'm not sure I remember teams consolidating such a hauls. Thunder did trade like three relatively bad FRPs for Ousmane Dieng this year. Otherwise they can't possibly keep drafting players. You keep turning back the clock on development, you keep killing the picks you just made.

Trading players you don't want for loads of draft picks is totally cool, and Presti got a God-gift from LAC, essentially getting credit for trading Paul George AND Kawhi to them. But now he has to trade FOR players or trade his picks for better pieces somehow and that's a whole different skill and manuever.

We'll shortly be in that boat.

[mo7888]

Black is light years ahead of Nick Smith Jr

A lot of people share your opinion... I'm just not one of them... even though I think Black is better today I believe Smith has more upside.

[Ocotillo]

This is fair. It's what I'm sure Smith's camp is hoping people realize. (I'm not actually sure either has announced yet? Would it be wild if neither of them go this year??)
.

Black did today

[mo7888]

I agree with you, but it's his list, and probably not subject to discussion.

We can certainly discuss it. I think my boards the last couple of years has held up pretty good, but no one's infallible. I totally whiffed on Johnny Davis last year for example.

[Mr. Body]

Black did today

Very cool. Thanks.

[BacktoBasics]

A lot of people share your opinion... I'm just not one of them... even though I think Black is better today I believe Smith has more upside.

Based on what? Which performance? Media hype? Black showed that has a feel for the game that is above average and potentially elite. He checks the intangibles box right away. Hustler and make game/pace changing plays. Doesn’t put himself first and can produce in scoring, passing and defensive. Black is arguably some kind of cross between Giddey and Sochan.

I get he’s a stretch at 4 because he’s not a volume scorer like we need but I’d take him anywhere from 4-8 and be thrilled.

[Dejounte]

I'm getting up to speed with Rupert. Can you share what you like about him?

Did someone say he was a pg? He’s not a pg. Rupert is what people thought Vassell was coming into the draft. When I say he looks like he will be an incredible asset on defense, I’m not joking. There are few with his size that can be as quick as he is to stay in front of ball handlers. People were impressed with Sochan’s versatility? Rupert is the guy who can guard the smaller guys while Sochan defends players slightly larger. Those two on the defensive end and their versatility is a matchmade in heaven.

enough about defense. Rupert’s ball handling is advanced and rare for someone his size. He’s obviously not the shooter that Vassell is, but Rupert can drive to the basket much more efficiently and has the handles to make it easy for him when the scoring becomes more developed.

all the signs are there for this kid to become a star. The mental aspect and drive are the only things that no one can fully grasp until a few years in. Unless he’s lazy or soft, then I see success in his future.

[rascal]

Based on what? Which performance? Media hype? Black showed that has a feel for the game that is above average and potentially elite. He checks the intangibles box right away. Hustler and make game/pace changing plays. Doesn’t put himself first and can produce in scoring, passing and defensive. Black is arguably some kind of cross between Giddey and Sochan.

I get he’s a stretch at 4 because he’s not a volume scorer like we need but I’d take him anywhere from 4-8 and be thrilled.

I would not take Black over Cam.

[Mr. Body]

I would not take Black over Cam.

Yes, you consistently select players who are only athletes over players who actually know how to play basketball.

[rascal]

Yes, you consistently select players who are only athletes over players who actually know how to play basketball.

You consistently pick the worse players with the lower upside.

[mo7888]

Based on what? Which performance? Media hype? Black showed that has a feel for the game that is above average and potentially elite. He checks the intangibles box right away. Hustler and make game/pace changing plays. Doesn’t put himself first and can produce in scoring, passing and defensive. Black is arguably some kind of cross between Giddey and Sochan.

I get he’s a stretch at 4 because he’s not a volume scorer like we need but I’d take him anywhere from 4-8 and be thrilled.

I'm not 'down' on Black and I won't be disappointed if we end up with him. I have Smith Jr ahead of him for a few reasons. I believe he played out of position all year. I project him as a PG in the league. He has better shooting mechanics than Black and is a better overall athlete in my estimation. He played hurt most of the year and didn't sit out as Klutch would have probably liked. His handle needs work, but it's not terrible. Black has better court vision, but not by a lot. My biggest concern for Nick is his mental makeup. I question whether he has the dawg in him he needs at this level, but the fact that he played through pain alleviates that to a certain degree. I'm looking for more info on that when interviews are conducted (and hopefully leak).

As for the draft overall, I love it down to around 20. If we don't get #1 I'd still vet out trading down with Orlando for two picks.

[The Truth #6]

Did someone say he was a pg? He’s not a pg. Rupert is what people thought Vassell was coming into the draft. When I say he looks like he will be an incredible asset on defense, I’m not joking. There are few with his size that can be as quick as he is to stay in front of ball handlers. People were impressed with Sochan’s versatility? Rupert is the guy who can guard the smaller guys while Sochan defends players slightly larger. Those two on the defensive end and their versatility is a matchmade in heaven.

enough about defense. Rupert’s ball handling is advanced and rare for someone his size. He’s obviously not the shooter that Vassell is, but Rupert can drive to the basket much more efficiently and has the handles to make it easy for him when the scoring becomes more developed.

all the signs are there for this kid to become a star. The mental aspect and drive are the only things that no one can fully grasp until a few years in. Unless he’s lazy or soft, then I see success in his future.

Appreciate it. Solid insights.

The Devin comparison is interesting, he has been worse defensively but better offensively than I thought he would be. I like Devin but I’m curious to see how serious his knee injury is; I know the consensus is move on from Keldon in a year, but I at least have a better idea of Keldon, and he’s more durable. Long winded way to say if we end up picking 7, Rupert could get some consideration.

Just rambling…

[BacktoBasics]

I'm not 'down' on Black and I won't be disappointed if we end up with him. I have Smith Jr ahead of him for a few reasons. I believe he played out of position all year. I project him as a PG in the league. He has better shooting mechanics than Black and is a better overall athlete in my estimation. He played hurt most of the year and didn't sit out as Klutch would have probably liked. His handle needs work, but it's not terrible. Black has better court vision, but not by a lot. My biggest concern for Nick is his mental makeup. I question whether he has the dawg in him he needs at this level, but the fact that he played through pain alleviates that to a certain degree. I'm looking for more info on that when interviews are conducted (and hopefully leak).

As for the draft overall, I love it down to around 20. If we don't get #1 I'd still vet out trading down with Orlando for two picks.

I absolutely agree he has better shooting mechanics. I agree he’s probably a better athlete but I think that’s because he’s a little bit more bouncy and not actually more agile etc. The dawg you question in Nick is there in spades for Black.

Then the reality that Black has just about everything else on Nick and I think it’s easy to see who’s the better pick.

But Nick has the edge in media hype. So there’s that.

I’d be disappointed if we drafted Nick.

[Mr. Body]

You consistently pick the worse players with the lower upside.

Like Jeremy Sochan and Alperen Sengun?

[mo7888]

I absolutely agree he has better shooting mechanics. I agree he’s probably a better athlete but I think that’s because he’s a little bit more bouncy and not actually more agile etc. The dawg you question in Nick is there in spades for Black.

Then the reality that Black has just about everything else on Nick and I think it’s easy to see who’s the better pick.

But Nick has the edge in media hype. So there’s that.

I’d be disappointed if we drafted Nick.

I do think Black has Dawg in him and that's part of the reason he has a higher floor. As for media hype, I'm pretty sure Black has much more hype right now than Smith. Espn ranks Black higher now as an example. Black is a safe pick, but Smith can be special imo...

[rascal]

Like Jeremy Sochan and Alperen Sengun?

You like Sochan better than Sharpe.

Sharpe is better with the higher upside.

[mo7888]

You like Sochan better than Sharpe.

Sharpe is better with the higher upside.

Sharpe is not currently better than Sochan and he's not even that close. Upside is a different issue though. I think upside between these two is an interesting debate. I might give the nod to Sharpe here because elite offense is more valuable than elite Defense, but Sharpes D is so much much worse than Sochan's O that it makes the debate interesting.

[exstatic]

I absolutely agree he has better shooting mechanics. I agree he’s probably a better athlete but I think that’s because he’s a little bit more bouncy and not actually more agile etc. The dawg you question in Nick is there in spades for Black.

Then the reality that Black has just about everything else on Nick and I think it’s easy to see who’s the better pick.

But Nick has the edge in media hype. So there’s that.

I’d be disappointed if we drafted Nick.

Black has one stat that NSJ will never approach, and it goes straight to the dawg in him: FTA rate. His FTA rate is .578. What that means is that for every FGA he has, he earns .578 FTs. He gets to the line A LOT. That destroys anyone else in TaT’s top ten.

[JPB]

Nothing against Black but I would be disappointed if spurs get him. He's a nice glue guy and good at a lot of things but not a game changer and the top leading star you'd hope spurs get after that laborious tank. BBIQ is one thing, but at the end of the day, unless you're a Curry/Luka/Jokic/Wemby/Durant type of player (which Black is not) atheticism is what will make you stand out and dominate in that league. Sure you need to understand the game but that's not rocket science either and something you can do over time while it's harder to teach athletiscism, explosivity, leap (and of course size).

It's OK to pick Kyle anderson at 29 when you're a contender because he's high BBIQ and he fits, it's another to pick Black this year when you're today spurs. Gimme some potential star/superstar with high ceiling. A money player who will take over games in the crunch, gets the crowd in, and drags everyone behind him.

[JPB]

Black has one stat that NSJ will never approach, and it goes straight to the dawg in him: FTA rate. His FTA rate is .578. What that means is that for every FGA he has, he earns .578 FTs. He gets to the line A LOT. That destroys anyone else in TaT’s top ten.

That against kids in college, he doesn't get that with his frame against NBA athletes.

[Mr. Body]

That against kids in college, he doesn't get that with his frame against NBA athletes.

Have you seen the league lately? The guards who dominate are skinny dudes who know how to make contact near the rim. SGA and Morant are not big guys but they get wild amount of free throws added because they have the uncanny knack for drawing could that Black has. In this era that stat will translate. It's all about getting the contract while the defender is shifting and he does it the same as they do.