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  1. #276
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    I think they'll raise interest again. Maybe a quarter. The idea is to be aggressive until you see a measurable cool-down.
    Kinda foolish to raise rates in June in response to May numbers. From everything i read you expect at least a 6 month gap between rate changes and measurable effects

    we’re already seeing an inflation cooldown when a lot of rate hikes that have yet to really have an impact

  2. #277
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    With that latest jobs report they will probably raise again. The fed believes that you fight inflation by slowing the economy until enough people get laid off and can't spend money. Cruel but true. The huge companies are laying off people everywhere but the small and medium are still hiring. They might skip a month but I don't think they are finished raising rates.

  3. #278
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Kinda foolish to raise rates in June in response to May numbers. From everything i read you expect at least a 6 month gap between rate changes and measurable effects

    we’re already seeing an inflation cooldown when a lot of rate hikes that have yet to really have an impact
    With that latest jobs report they will probably raise again. The fed believes that you fight inflation by slowing the economy until enough people get laid off and can't spend money. Cruel but true. The huge companies are laying off people everywhere but the small and medium are still hiring. They might skip a month but I don't think they are finished raising rates.
    Exactly. What I mean by measurable and aggressive is that you start seeing reports with not just no growth, but a decidedly downturn trend.

    It's not just the May numbers, the previous months have been the same. The trend so far has been either up or level. You want to see 2-3 months of downturn, and until that happens you're going to see rate increases IMO.

  4. #279
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Exactly. What I mean by measurable and aggressive is that you start seeing reports with not just no growth, but a decidedly downturn trend.

    It's not just the May numbers, the previous months have been the same. The trend so far has been either up or level. You want to see 2-3 months of downturn, and until that happens you're going to see rate increases IMO.
    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave
    2023 6.4 6.0 5.0 4.9 Avail.
    June
    13
    2022 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.6 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.5 8.0

  5. #280
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ave
    2023 6.4 6.0 5.0 4.9 Avail.
    June
    13
    2022 7.5 7.9 8.5 8.3 8.6 9.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.5 8.0
    When you see 6+ months of 4% or less, then you have a trend. The real target goal is the historical number: 2%. But you don't need to keep raising rates to get there, you need a decidedly downward trend.

    Don't forget these raising rates are also fighting external factors. The OPEC+ decrease in output today, for example, is likely going to bring it up a bit more again.

  6. #281
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    When you see 6+ months of 4% or less, then you have a trend. The real target goal is the historical number: 2%. But you don't need to keep raising rates to get there, you need a decidedly downward trend.

    Don't forget these raising rates are also fighting external factors. The OPEC+ decrease in output today, for example, is likely going to bring it up a bit more again.
    not at the target yet, but a clear downward trend exists

  7. #282
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    not at the target yet, but a clear downward trend exists
    I could be wrong, tbh... I do think those numbers are still too high for what the real goal is, so I expect interest rates to continue slowly going up.

  8. #283
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    Saudi Arabia Is Slashing Oil Supply — And It Could Mean Higher Gas Prices For US Drivers
    The Saudi cut of 1 million barrels per day, to start in July, comes as the other OPEC+ producers agreed in a meeting in Vienna to extend earlier production cuts through next year.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/saudi...b0b4444c7f89b6

  9. #284
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Board conservatives still praying for det recession.


  10. #285
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Board conservatives still praying for det recession.
    That was a ing stupid comment.

  11. #286
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    That was a ing stupid comment.
    seems to have touched a nerve, are you feeling tender?

  12. #287
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    seems to have touched a nerve, are you feeling tender?
    No, and I'm damn sure not praying for a recession. Like I said, stupid ing comment.

  13. #288
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    No, and I'm damn sure not praying for a recession. Like I said, stupid ing comment.
    ok, crankypants.

    I'll put you down for tender feelings

  14. #289
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    The oligarchy wants Biden, Dems defeated, so Repugs will cut $Ts more of the oligarchy's taxes, add $Ts in loopholes, subsidies, etc, plus Repugs to "deconstruct the administrative state", aka neoliberalism cubed.

    So the oligarchy prays for, pimps for a recession in 2024 to defeat the Dems. Same strategy the Repugs used in the Obama years.

  15. #290
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    Today Goldman Sacks lowered their prediction for recession

  16. #291
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    May inflation reports has inflation down to 4%

  17. #292
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    Core inflation +.4%

  18. #293
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    May inflation reports has inflation down to 4%

  19. #294
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    core cpi is also down from last month (core cpi is just cpi but without factoring in energy and food)

    and yeah, inflation is outpacing wage gains. nobody said 4% CPI or 5% core cpi is the target number. but it continues to move in the right direction, and we still havent felt the impact of the more recent rate hikes either (usually have a lagging effect of at least 6 months)

  20. #295
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    PPI has been in a good spot the last two months, that's the key number I'll be watching for tomorrow. If it comes in under 2.0, things will be looking good.

  21. #296
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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  22. #297
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    people understand that inflation already happened a year ago.

  23. #298
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    core CPI down to 3%, continuing a downward trend


  24. #299
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    core CPI down to 3%, continuing a downward trend

    Bad news for Biden.

  25. #300
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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