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The math for Lake is impossible for now
seems like a pretty average "never Trumper" / anti Q person, tbhlmao, that dude was a registered (R) up until 2016, then he switched to "independent" until 2019 and now suddenly he's a Democrat
at the very worst for blue team, he's Liz Cheney.
The math for Lake is impossible for now
Was looking at the 9 counties besides Maricopa and Pima that have 200+ ballots remaining and Hobbs should actually net gain at least 400 votes from them, mostly based on Apache County. Do you think it's impossible that Lake could pull 55% in the remaining Maricopa ballots though? Still don't think that would be enough but could make the race interesting.
It's possible but Lake pulling 55% of the remaining Maricopa ballots wouldn't be near enough.
Trump’s picks to oversee elections in key 2024 battlegrounds all lost
Cisco Aguilar’s victory in Nevada capped a sweep for Democrats after a furious campaign to call attention to their races.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed four Republicans for secretary of state positions in the general election, boosting candidates who have cast doubt on the legitimacy of U.S. elections in some of the most closely divided states.
Every single one of them lost.
Democratic in bents Jocelyn Benson of Michigan and Steve Simon of Minnesota both beat back challenges. Arizona’s Adrian Fontes — a former elections official in the state’s largest county — won the open seat in his state. And this weekend, attorney and first-time candidate Cisco Aguilar was declared the winner in Nevada.
Their wins blocked a group of Republicans who deny President Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election from overseeing the vote in key battlegrounds in 2024: Jim Marchant in Nevada, Mark Finchem in Arizona, Kristina Karamo in Michigan and Kim Crockett in Minnesota.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...-2024-00066627
Problem is if most of the remaining ballots to be counted are ones dropped off on election date might not get that blue bump outside of Apache, which just seems slow as counting. If you make the simplifying assumption that each county other than Maricopa has its remaining votes split exactly as it has in the votes so far tabulated in each county Lake needs right around 55% of the remaining Maricopa ballots to finish just above Hobbs. However, Apache has like 9000 votes remaining (only 68% counted) so no way it's not still dealing with mail in votes that'll probably trend bluer than the 68-32 Hobbs split counted so far.
How have Lake's numbers looked in the last two Maricopa drops? I know the last one dropped her statewide deficit from 1.6% to 1.0%.
I’m too tired to walk through the math but Lake would basically need 70% of the remaining vote in Maricopa which obv isn’t happening.
Skanky Lake is still alive?
I thought that got settled last night.
Still the funniest result so far was WA-03. Fivethirtyeight had this 98% to 2% going red.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../washington/3/
But the GOP in bent voted to impeach the stain for trying to overthrow the government, got primaried, and then the MAGA who won the nomination got beat in the general.
Where are you following the numbers? Is somewhere else more accurate than that Washington Post? Maybe it has some big rounding errors since it's reporting mostly in integer percentages for percentage remaining per county? Also is there a built-in assumption the other counties remaining votes are trending bluer than so far counted votes in the county by some fixed amount in the model you're using?
McDonnell is 82 yrs old? off already
Young Men like me are the future of the Republican Party. I grew up and still am Liberal. I will help lead the way for Moderates.
Running up the score pissed me off
Gloating
I would say enjoy the Holidays but you don't
Attn ducks
Did your "team" win?
The MAGA who won that primary is a colossal re tooStill the funniest result so far was WA-03. Fivethirtyeight had this 98% to 2% going red.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.../washington/3/
But the GOP in bent voted to impeach the stain for trying to overthrow the government, got primaried, and then the MAGA who won the nomination got beat in the general.
His entire campaign was "Muh wife died in Iraq...vote for me pls
This guy basically did the same math I did
The Republican premature ejaculation over how Lake would win and be a great future VP candidate was a deja vu of Democrats premature ejaculating over Andrew Gillum being the next Barrack Obama 4 years ago.
When Lake got too full of herself and started making endorsements as if she was a national figure / telling McCain supporters to go themselves, she left the door open for Hobbs when Hobbs was basically dead in the water.
Things have changed, bigly. In the new GOP world, moderates like you are considered RINOs as you are not 100% a MAGA .
It's amazing that there are still people on the right who fail to realize that it is time to jump off of the Trump train. Yes, policy wise he was on target on many conservative issues, but the baggage he brings makes him a major liability.
The guy is obviously suffering from PTSD and can't STFU about 2020 and his hand picked candidates are not very appealing to the general public. Something I see the media just glossing over is that, in Ohio, Gov Dewine won by like 25 points and JD Vance won by 7...this in a state in which Dewine signed a fairly extreme abortion bill in. Pledging allegiance to Trump and an alternate reality is no-go going forward and the electorate made that clear. I have a few Trumper friends who are exceptional people, but still can't see WTF is going on here enough to step back and reassess, logically.
Democrats had bipartisan support immediately after Jan 6th to ban Trump from running for office again, but they purposely avoided it because they knew Trump can destroy the GOP from within, or as an independent. Trump is our Frankenstein and we can purge him from the party w/o being a total sellout like Liz Cheney. Youngkin gave us the playbook. Ignore him and his antics until he fades away in to obscurity. The cult will slowly dissolve over the next 2 years and if the economy continues it's crumble, then the losses you take with the remaining die-hard cult members, will be gained by independents.
We just have to figure out how to keep him from an independent run and Perot type spoiler.
This is bull .
The Dems voted on articles of impeachment and sent them to the senate for a trial just a couple of weeks after January 6th.
The GOP had the opportunity to convict and make Trump irrelevant, instead McConnell cucked out by claiming you can't impeach someone who isn't in office anymore (a belief with no cons utional precedent).
The Dems gave the GOP the opportunity to make Trump irrelevant and the GOP decided against it because it was worried what banishing Trump would do for rural turnout.
Turns out rural turnout for Trump candidates doesn't work unless Trump himself is on the ballot.
Guess I made an error in my math somewhere. Probably put a minus sign instead of a plus somewhere in the Mathematica worksheet I made lol.
Washington Post claims there are 93k Maricopa ballots but that would still only drop things to Lake needing to win the remaining Maricopa ballots 64-36 to tie Hobbs statewide if no other counties had outstanding votes.
Def looks nearly impossible for Lake though, especially with Apache County having nearly 9000 votes left and Pima 40,500 left if the Washington Post's numbers are correct.
Last edited by baseline bum; 11-14-2022 at 10:09 AM.
ROFL that GOP representatives are considering Trump for Speaker of the House
The 93k ballots includes earlies (not late earlies that favor the GOP, earlies that favor Dems) and provisionals (will also favor Dems).
The 74k number is the number of late earlies that Lake is relying on to close the margin and as he said, she'd need to win them by 35% even if you assume the other ballots left outstanding break even when they're definitely not going to since they're largely from Pima & Apache county.
Lake is done. Enjoy the pending frivolous lawsuits about voter fraud.
I'd like the thank the MAGA s for refusing vaccination and thus dying in higher numbers from COVID. Every little bit helped us keep the senate, so thanks for killing yourselves to own the libs.
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