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  1. #826
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    The consequences of the agenda have hurt us all through inflation, no matter how you are doing financially.
    The stuff Trump allowed and bragged about?

    OK.

  2. #827
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    The consequences of the agenda have hurt us all through inflation, no matter how you are doing financially.
    Agreed, Trumpís agenda of cutting oil production by 10 million barrels a day has hurt all of us.

  3. #828
    クソ漏れそうだよ、助けてボゲ baseline bum's Avatar
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    ROFL these MAGA s at the Maricopa certification today


  4. #829
    Against Public Schooling Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    ROFL these MAGA s at the Maricopa certification today

    Lake lost

    AZ is a blue state and not going back

    AZ is East Cal

    Goodbye the end

  5. #830
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  6. #831
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Agreed, Trumpís agenda of cutting oil production by 10 million barrels a day has hurt all of us.

    Biden using Trump's surplus of oil reserves purchased at a bargain price actually saved the economy from total collapse, though

    BTW, how's the 401k looking now compared to the Trump years?

  7. #832
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    The GOP has essentially conceded the seat and are looking at WV and Montana in 2024.

  8. #833
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The GOP has essentially conceded the seat and are looking at WV and Montana in 2024.
    it's true that the 2024 Senate race is gonna be tough for Dems. (R)s screwed themselves with a very weak candidate here

  9. #834
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    The GOP has essentially conceded the seat and are looking at WV and Montana in 2024.
    Ohio will be an easier flip for the GOP than Montana (assuming Tester runs).

    The last poll in MT had Tester at +20% approval and Montana voters are a lot more elastic in terms of their willingness to split the ballot.

    If the GOP has conceded this seat (I don't think they have - a lot of the high turnout has come from very Republican areas) it's not because they're looking to 2024. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they've conceded it's because they don't think Walker can win.

  10. #835
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Biden using Trump's surplus of oil reserves purchased at a bargain price actually saved the economy from total collapse, though

    BTW, how's the 401k looking now compared to the Trump years?
    I don't blame Biden for the fact Trump's economic plan (tax cuts and deficit spending) didn't lead to sustained stock price growth.

    The GOP economic policy of tax cuts and deregulation is the equivalent of letting a 7 year old eat sour patches for dinner every night.

  11. #836
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Lake lost

    AZ is a blue state and not going back

    AZ is East Cal

    Goodbye the end
    The Arizona GOP (back when it wasn't re ed) built a turnout powerhouse with mail in voting and the Trump/Kelli Ward circus basically destroyed it by telling their base that mail voting isn't reliable.

    It's pretty hilarious to see how much the GOP has suppressed its own vote this year.

  12. #837
    Against Public Schooling Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    The GOP has essentially conceded the seat and are looking at WV and Montana in 2024.
    Ohio will be an easier flip for the GOP than Montana (assuming Tester runs).

    The last poll in MT had Tester at +20% approval and Montana voters are a lot more elastic in terms of their willingness to split the ballot.

    If the GOP has conceded this seat (I don't think they have - a lot of the high turnout has come from very Republican areas) it's not because they're looking to 2024. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they've conceded it's because they don't think Walker can win.
    Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, Nevada (Laxalt was the strongest candidate who lost and IMO should run again and Rosen is weaker than CCM), and Wisconsin are all more likely to flip than not, but candidate quality matters. Arizona, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania are on the next tier, but you've got to have a strong candidate and very strong campaigning to flip those. You're not going to pick those up by running a Blake Masters, Tudor Dixon, a weatherman and a holistic celebrity doctor. Also, John James is an incredibly weak candidate for Michigan, similar to Herschel Walker. Look at how he BARELY won his almost solid-red district by the skin of his teeth this year after losing out on the Senate 2 cycles in a row. I've heard him speak in-person; he's got the vocabulary and public speaking ability of a 5th grader.

    The Arizona GOP (back when it wasn't re ed) built a turnout powerhouse with mail in voting and the Trump/Kelli Ward circus basically destroyed it by telling their base that mail voting isn't reliable.

    It's pretty hilarious to see how much the GOP has suppressed its own vote this year.
    Yeah that's why the GOP overperformed in places like CA where the Democrats only won statewide by around 15% but underperformed in NV and AZ (among others, like PA/MI) is because Trump, Mike Lindell, Marjorie Taylor-Greene, and that whole MAGA / America First / QAnon cabal told everyone in their base to only vote on election day and that if they voted early or by mail that their votes wouldn't count. The problem is, a lot of those people in the hot southwestern states are older and really only want to vote by mail, and would elect to stay home and not vote at all if their choice is between vote in person election day or not vote at all. And a lot of the MAGA / QAnon base just didn't end up voting at all because when the time got down to election day something else came up and they turned to praying to god that the GOP would win instead of actually voting. {Example: I kept getting emails the last month leading up to the election, from Michigan GOP that the solution to defeating Whitmer was to 'pray Whitmer away'; no joke}

    Heck, Oregon has been an exclusively vote by mail state for over 40 years, and that one almost flipped red in 2000 largely due to Nader

    When the GOP gets back to fundamentals and actually logistically trying to win elections instead of praying, they will go back to winning elections.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-30-2022 at 10:53 AM.

  13. #838
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, Nevada (Laxalt was the strongest candidate who lost and IMO should run again and Rosen is weaker than CCM), and Wisconsin are all more likely to flip than not, but candidate quality matters. Arizona, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania are on the next tier, but you've got to have a strong candidate and very strong campaigning to flip those.
    Rosen is weaker than CCM but she won't have the terrible Clark County Hispanic turnout that CCM managed to survive this year.

    Laxalt lost in 2018 and 2022, he's a terrible fundraiser and Hispanic voters ing hate him. At some point you lose votes when you repeatedly run again after losing (e.g., McSally doing worse in 2020 than 2018 despite 2018 being a much better environment for Dems), voter fatigue eventually sets in.

    calling Baldwin's seat more likely to flip than not when Evers just won re-election by 3% and a literal black nationalist came within 25k votes of taking out Ron Johnson, both despite awful Milwaukee turnout
    thinking there's any chance Bob Casey Jr. is losing when John Fetterman just won PA by 5% despite literally not being able to talk
    holding onto the red New Mexico wet dream when that filthy wop Mark Ronchetti couldn't even unseat a scandal plagued in bent governor
    thinking Michigan might flip when the Dems just took complete control of the state and are about to pass a slew of new voting laws to juice turnout in Detroit

    All of your predictions are assuming the 2024 environment is going to be worse for Dems than 2022 was which makes no sense. 2022 was still a pretty unfavorable year for Dems (R+2 generic ballot nationally) and minority turnout was horrendous. The fact Democrats did so well with independents in a Dem midterm year and Biden's unpopularity with independents is a bad dynamic for the GOP that's probably not changing anytime soon.

    Yeah that's why the GOP overperformed in places like CA where the Democrats only won statewide by around 15% but underperformed in NV and AZ (among others, like PA/MI) is because Trump, Mike Lindell, and that whole MAGA / America First / QAnon cabal told everyone in their base to only vote on election day and that if they voted early or by mail that their votes wouldn't count.
    Well there's more to it than that. The CA GOP (in a rare demonstration of competence) has actually built up a pretty impressive ballot harvesting operation while Newsom did jack to help CA Dems win this year. The AZGOP inexplicably told all of its supporters to flood the polls on EDay so they had a huge deficit to make up while the AZ Dems banked a bunch of early votes and could focus EDay canvassing efforts on lower propensity voters.

    This year shows how important state level political machines are, and right now the GOP state level operation is in complete shambles in all of the wrong places (PA, AZ, MI, NV, WI).

  14. #839
    Believe. daboom1's Avatar
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    The reason we have high gas prices was the deal Trump cut with OPEC+ to slash oil production by 10 million barrels a day back in April 2020. OPEC+ still isn't producing at pre-COVID levels.

  15. #840
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Show us your take on domestic and OPEC+ production with numbers, Qhris.

  16. #841
    Against Public Schooling Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    calling Baldwin's seat more likely to flip than not when Evers just won re-election by 3% and a literal black nationalist came within 25k votes of taking out Ron Johnson, both despite awful Milwaukee turnout
    WI).
    hey, you're the one trying to convince me early this year that WI is zooming to the right while TX/FL are moving to the left, while none of the above were true.

  17. #842
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    hey, you're the one trying to convince me early this year that WI is zooming to the right while TX/FL are moving to the left, while none of the above were true.
    When did I ever say Florida was moving left? I've been saying for years that the Dems should cut bait and stop dumping money into Florida.

    Texas is moving left, just at a much slower rate than everyone says (again, this is what I've said all along).

    Wisconsin is moving right, just not fast enough to take out an in bent who performs as solidly as Baldwin does.

  18. #843
    Against Public Schooling Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    When did I ever say Florida was moving left? I've been saying for years that the Dems should cut bait and stop dumping money into Florida.

    Texas is moving left, just at a much slower rate than everyone says (again, this is what I've said all along).

    Wisconsin is moving right, just not fast enough to take out an in bent who performs as solidly as Baldwin does.
    Texas leftward trend peaked in 2018 when they had both the suburban coalition and a steady stream of blue in the RGV. Now it's trending back red. Tarrant flipped back red. Austin is pretty maxed out. Houston suburbs trending back red. Not looking like Blexas will happen. The state went from R+2.2 in 2018 to R+6 in 2020 to R+11.5 in 2022, that's a pretty consistent rightward pattern.

    Baldwin isn't a blue dog democrat. She's basically ideologically the same as Mandela Barnes without being tied to the black panthers. If you've heard her speak, she's the definition of a twinkle tone leftist. She's basically Warren but more soft spoken. Maybe the most delicate voice in the entire Senate.

  19. #844
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Texas leftward trend peaked in 2018 when they had both the suburban coalition and a steady stream of blue in the RGV. Now it's trending back red. Tarrant flipped back red. Austin is pretty maxed out. Houston suburbs trending back red. Not looking like Blexas will happen. The state went from R+2.2 in 2018 to R+6 in 2020 to R+11.5 in 2022, that's a pretty consistent rightward pattern.
    it's not really when you're comparing across different elections and different environments + when you're not weighing it against national partisanship.

    For example, the R+11.5% governor race you're using actually trended left compared to the 2018 governor race despite the environment being much worse for Dems overall.


    Baldwin isn't a blue dog democrat. She's basically ideologically the same as Mandela Barnes without being tied to the black panthers. If you've heard her speak, she's the definition of a twinkle eyed leftist. She's basically Warren but more soft spoken.
    Again this is your re ed fallacy that blue dogs always perform well and progressives always perform terribly.

    Whatever her ideology is, she's been a consistent overperformer in the 2 senate races she's won. The idea that Baldwin isn't a good statewide candidate in Wisconsin isn't a serious opinion.

  20. #845
    Believe. daboom1's Avatar
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    Texas is moving left

  21. #846
    Against Public Schooling Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Again this is your re ed fallacy that blue dogs always perform well and progressives always perform terribly.
    It depends on the state. In 2016 Wisconsin woke up and realized that, outside of Madison city limits, it's not -actually- Massachusetts. A lot of tougher boned people there. In 2018 she was the in bent in a blue wave year and there wasn't really much either side could do about that, either to primary her out or beat her in the general. But she's much more cut out realistically for a northeastern or west coast state than an upper midwest state.

    She'll lose in 2024 but it'll be less than 5%. Tiffany or Gallagher are potentially strong candidates. But knowing Trump he'll probably prop up someone stupid like some ex Packers player or something.

    Tim Michels was a less than stellar pick for governor. Should have gone with the insta-win in Rebecca Kleefisch (spelling?) -sure she was more moderate on social issues, but she would have beaten Evers by a bigger margin than Johnson beat Barnes instead of outright losing to Evers

  22. #847
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Ohio will be an easier flip for the GOP than Montana (assuming Tester runs).

    The last poll in MT had Tester at +20% approval and Montana voters are a lot more elastic in terms of their willingness to split the ballot.

    If the GOP has conceded this seat (I don't think they have - a lot of the high turnout has come from very Republican areas) it's not because they're looking to 2024. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they've conceded it's because they don't think Walker can win.
    Trump won Montana easily so I actually think this is one of those weird states where they could send out a Trumper, Q-anon guy and knock off Tester. They just have to find one with half a brain who can successfully align Tester with Joe Biden.

  23. #848
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    When did I ever say Florida was moving left? I've been saying for years that the Dems should cut bait and stop dumping money into Florida.

    Texas is moving left, just at a much slower rate than everyone says (again, this is what I've said all along).

    Wisconsin is moving right, just not fast enough to take out an in bent who performs as solidly as Baldwin does.
    No

    I mean yes, it sort of was, then Biden broke the border and halted that progression.

    On top of that, I think we are becoming more tribal. Libs are leaving places like TX/FLA and moving to blue states and Republicans are feeling California and NY for red states, etc.

  24. #849
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    No

    I mean yes, it sort of was, then Biden broke the border and halted that progression.

    On top of that, I think we are becoming more tribal. Libs are leaving places like TX/FLA and moving to blue states and Republicans are feeling California and NY for red states, etc.
    Not really. It's just that Californians and New Yorkers are moving to blue cities like Austin (or San Antonio). Then those get gentrified, and move on to the next town.

    It really is a matter of time urban outvotes rural in TX. It might take a while, but that part is somewhat inevitable.

    At some point the GOP will have to figure out how to cater the urban voters. It won't be pretty though.

  25. #850
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Not really. It's just that Californians and New Yorkers are moving to blue cities like Austin (or San Antonio). Then those get gentrified, and move on to the next town.

    It really is a matter of time urban outvotes rural in TX. It might take a while, but that part is somewhat inevitable.

    At some point the GOP will have to figure out how to cater the urban voters. It won't be pretty though.

    They flee ty policy states to advocate for same ty policies in their new states? Makes perfect sense.

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