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  1. #851
    Veteran Th'Pusher's Avatar
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    They flee ty policy states to advocate for same ty policies in their new states? Makes perfect sense.
    What are the ty policies they’re fleeing? State taxes? Legalized drugs? Homeless policy?

  2. #852
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    What are the ty policies they’re fleeing? State taxes? Legalized drugs? Homeless policy?
    All of the above

  3. #853
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    They flee ty policy states to advocate for same ty policies in their new states? Makes perfect sense.
    Because policy is not why they flee. If they didn't like that, they wouldn't move to another blue city.

    What happens is gentrification, and they eventually just get priced out. Exactly what's happening to Austin right now.

  4. #854
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Not really. It's just that Californians and New Yorkers are moving to blue cities like Austin (or San Antonio). Then those get gentrified, and move on to the next town.

    It really is a matter of time urban outvotes rural in TX. It might take a while, but that part is somewhat inevitable.

    At some point the GOP will have to figure out how to cater the urban voters. It won't be pretty though.

    I think the Dems plan to expedite that is a blanket amnesty. If you get full control in 2024, I'd be shocked if we did not see it.

  5. #855
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I think the Dems plan to expedite that is a blanket amnesty. If you get full control in 2024, I'd be shocked if we did not see it.
    Then you'll be shocked. There's nothing to gain for Democrats with an amnesty. They're already getting the latino votes they're going to get. Especially since the GOP insists on calling non-cuban latinos pretty much criminals.

    Democrats should be thanking Trump for that. The last president to do a blanket amnesty was Reagan, and he pretty much locked in the Cubans voters into the red team.

    About the urban growth, it's simply organic. Take a look at this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...population-us/

    and it's not just a US phenomenon, it's worldwide. ie:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/u...ral-population

    That said, all this means is that the GOP will have to rely much less on rural and figure out how to cater to urban voters.

  6. #856
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    "It really is a matter of time urban outvotes rural in TX. It might take a while"

    ==============

    Although Texas has a large rural population, the majority of Texans live in urban areas (or metropolitan statistical areas).

    In 2010, 84.7 percent of the Texas population lived in urban areas,

    and 75.4 percent lived in urban areas with 50,000 or more people.


    https://www.texasalmanac.com/article...-still-growing

    ===============

    2020 picture of Texas comes into focus:

    A diverse state dominated by major metros

    https://kinder.rice.edu/urbanedge/20...d-major-metros

    No Dem has won statewide office for decades.

  7. #857
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Because policy is not why they flee. If they didn't like that, they wouldn't move to another blue city.

    What happens is gentrification, and they eventually just get priced out. Exactly what's happening to Austin right now.
    when it comes to housing a it usually comes down to a more basic supply and demand issue. just building more homes, even market rate housing, luxury apartments, etc, generally increases affordability through the region (because people with the money will flock to those new shiny places, and prices will ease on the vacated homes). but if the demand growth keeps outpacing supply growth, you might not get there. thats why you just need to build build build and not think twice tbh

  8. #858
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    When did I ever say Florida was moving left? I've been saying for years that the Dems should cut bait and stop dumping money into Florida
    yep. and dems bailing on florida means they can stop trying to appease cuban voters and move forward with normalizing relations with countries like cuba, venezuela, etc

  9. #859
    I cannot grok its fullnes leemajors's Avatar
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    when it comes to housing a it usually comes down to a more basic supply and demand issue. just building more homes, even market rate housing, luxury apartments, etc, generally increases affordability through the region (because people with the money will flock to those new shiny places, and prices will ease on the vacated homes). but if the demand growth keeps outpacing supply growth, you might not get there. thats why you just need to build build build and not think twice tbh
    Not if you have nifty software like RealPage for landlords!

  10. #860
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    BREAKING: Cochise County BOS just motioned to table the certification of the election until November 28th, when they expect to review all evidence of the proof of legal certification by the accredited Election Assistance Commission labs to use the tabulation machines. This now establishes precedent to do the same in other counties now that Cochise County is validating their results. Arizona cannot certify any election results until all counties have rendered certified results.

    https://truthsocial.com/users/realma...68472535229158


    tick tock

  11. #861
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    If Warnock wins, the Dems are essentially geographically maxed out in the Senate, except for Susan Collins' seat.

    Yes they'll have a 51-49 majority for 2 years but Tester/Sherrod/Manchin going down in 2024 is just simply the chickens coming home to roost. The GOP has much more room to grow in the senate in all 3 cycles especially the 2024 cycle than the Dems do. Even in 2026 the GOP will be playing more offense (Georgia, NM, MI's weak in bent, MN's weaker in bent etc) than defense (Maine). In 2028 the GOP will have to defend WI but everything else is pretty much offense again (GA, AZ, NV, PA). But the really big opportunity for mass scale flippage is in 2024 no doubt.

  12. #862
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    If Warnock wins, the Dems are essentially geographically maxed out in the Senate, except for Susan Collins' seat.

    Yes they'll have a 51-49 majority for 2 years but Tester/Sherrod/Manchin going down in 2024 is just simply the chickens coming home to roost. The GOP has much more room to grow in the senate in all 3 cycles especially the 2024 cycle than the Dems do. Even in 2026 the GOP will be playing more offense (Georgia, NM, MI's weak in bent, MN's weaker in bent etc) than defense (Maine). In 2028 the GOP will have to defend WI but everything else is pretty much offense again (GA, AZ, NV, PA). But the really big opportunity for mass scale flippage is in 2024 no doubt.
    yes, we all know the senate is just affirmative action for republicans. 2024 is a bad map for democrats obviously, but their silver lining is it comes during a general election where somebody as unpopular as trump might be leading the ticket and he might be hand picking dumbass senate candidates again

    (and dont flatter yourself, i'm out of town, and my main computer which has ElNono's blocker tool didnt travel with me)

  13. #863
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    yes, we all know the senate is just affirmative action for republicans

    (and dont flatter yourself, i'm out of town, and my main computer which has ElNono's blocker tool didnt travel with me)
    Now's your chance to take me off ElNono's blocker tool; I'm quite a normal person these days. Please... I invite you

    yes I lean GOP, but I'm not alt right and not spamming up the NFL boards like before

  14. #864
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Now's your chance to take me off ElNono's blocker tool; I'm quite a normal person these days. Please... I invite you

    yes I lean GOP, but I'm not alt right and not spamming up the NFL boards like before
    i cant take you off the blocker tool unless i'm on that computer. you have ~1 month

  15. #865
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    i cant take you off the blocker tool unless i'm on that computer. you have ~1 month
    Well follow my posting the next month and even recent post history. It's pretty normal. Just look at the NFL board this year compared to say, 2015 or 2016.

    I remember you originally put me on iggy because I said Benson Mayowa > Khalil Mack. but the reality is posting hundreds of times in each week's NFL thread was a bit much even looking back at it

    Where are you vacationing? A month is quite awhile.

    but their silver lining is it comes during a general election where somebody as unpopular as trump might be leading the ticket and he might be hand picking dumbass senate candidates again

    That's a good point. Trump needs to acknowledge his 2022 failures and learn from it if he's going to continue to be de facto party leader.

    The GOP needs to take a page out of the CA GOP / NY GOP playbook at get equally competent as Democrats have been for awhile at ballot harvesting. They're learning, but more slowly than surely in some states (AZ, NV, PA, MI, WI obviously). WI should be a R+7 state but the Dems kick the GOP ass in early vote and ballot harvesting. Nevada should be R+whatever but only the Democrats do early, mail in voting and ballot harvesting there. Georgia is a curious case where Kemp gets the early vote turnout but everyone else there all the way to the senate and Trump way underperform.

    e.g. Fetterman won not because he's a good candidate or because PA is bluer than 2016, but because Dr. Oz is a laughably bad candidate and the Trump wing of the GOP telling people not to vote unless they're going to vote on election day in person is a losing strategy. Stacey Abrams is a far better candidate than Fetterman, but the PA Dems smoked the GOP in the ballot harvesting and early/mail in vote process while Kemp was equally competent with Abrams in the early/mail ins and obviously won big margins on election day.

    Appreciate Kemp for trying to prop up Herschel Walker in the runoff, but his best opportunity to win was in the general on the Kemp ticket. Walker is another terrible celebrity candidate and even worse than Oz because he can't speak without putting his foot in his mouth. Oz lost because he was seen by the western 7/8 of the state as a Muslim carpetbagger and PA Dems are competent with election stuff. Masters lost because he's a no name, the GOP got outspent, and Arizona GOP is laughably bad with election stuff. Nevada, Laxalt lost for similar reasons but we'll see if Nevada changes their laws with the new GOP governor

    I do think Trump Inc. primarying out Romney in Utah is a very good idea, because it's a deep red state and there's no reason to have a Susan Collins vote in deep-red Utah, like Liz Cheney in Wyoming. But trying to replace someone like Sinema with a far right MAGA pro life type would be forfeiting that race. Similar goes for the upper midwest states. In Wisconsin you have to run someone competent but relatively moderate on social issues like abortion because that falls in line with Wisconsinites.

    The bluer/purpler the state, the more that Trump/MAGA Inc needs to bite the bullet and just elect an electoral juggernaut RINO who will at least vote republican over 90% of the time even if they're not "based on all the issues". A far righty Maga Mormon in Utah is fine, but to win the second tier of possible senate flips like AZ/NV/WI/MI/PA/NM/VA you sometimes just need to find the most electable candidate. a McCormick would do well, maybe not win, but do well against Casey in PA, better than Oz, if the GOP plays their cards right. A ton of the McCormick vote in the western 7/8 of PA stayed home or voted for Fetterman for reasons already explained.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 12-01-2022 at 10:00 PM.

  16. #866
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Cant access it, unfortunately. Don't have a premium account.

    And and agree with the last part. I don't care how bad inflation is, the GOP has to figure out an actual platform and run with it. Halloween Fentanyl candy was always stupid and only the very gullible fell for it.



    Then you'll be shocked. There's nothing to gain for Democrats with an amnesty. They're already getting the latino votes they're going to get. Especially since the GOP insists on calling non-cuban latinos pretty much criminals.

    Democrats should be thanking Trump for that. The last president to do a blanket amnesty was Reagan, and he pretty much locked in the Cubans voters into the red team.

    About the urban growth, it's simply organic. Take a look at this:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...population-us/

    and it's not just a US phenomenon, it's worldwide. ie:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/u...ral-population

    That said, all this means is that the GOP will have to rely much less on rural and figure out how to cater to urban voters.

  17. #867
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    If Warnock wins, the Dems are essentially geographically maxed out in the Senate, except for Susan Collins' seat.

    Yes they'll have a 51-49 majority for 2 years but Tester/Sherrod/Manchin going down in 2024 is just simply the chickens coming home to roost. The GOP has much more room to grow in the senate in all 3 cycles especially the 2024 cycle than the Dems do. Even in 2026 the GOP will be playing more offense (Georgia, NM, MI's weak in bent, MN's weaker in bent etc) than defense (Maine). In 2028 the GOP will have to defend WI but everything else is pretty much offense again (GA, AZ, NV, PA). But the really big opportunity for mass scale flippage is in 2024 no doubt.
    Question is, what do they run on? Gas prices are returning to Trump era range and you can only ride the anti-woke train so far. SCOTUS telling the $2 s you cant snuff out your baby has backfired and you have to wonder what SCOTUS is up to now and when some eavesdropping, crazed liberal is ready to release the dirt on it.

  18. #868
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Question is, what do they run on? Gas prices are returning to Trump era range and you can only ride the anti-woke train so far. SCOTUS telling the $2 s you cant snuff out your baby has backfired and you have to wonder what SCOTUS is up to now and when some eavesdropping, crazed liberal is ready to release the dirt on it.
    still blaming liberals for the Dobbs opinion being leaked when it’s obvious Alito leaked the opinion to freeze Kavanaugh and Gorsuch

  19. #869
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Federal Judge grants motion for sanctions on team Kari Lake for filing a frivolous lawsuit. It's what should have happened to Trump about 60 times after he lost the election, hope this sort of thing becomes more common if sore loser Republicans keep filing garbage lawsuits like this.

    [

  20. #870
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Question is, what do they run on? Gas prices are returning to Trump era range and you can only ride the anti-woke train so far. SCOTUS telling the $2 s you cant snuff out your baby has backfired and you have to wonder what SCOTUS is up to now and when some eavesdropping, crazed liberal is ready to release the dirt on it.
    It's not quite Trump era or the last 2 years of Obama era low. It's more like a median of Obama's first six years average / Bush's last 3 years.

    I think if the Dems plan on keeping gas reasonable and inflation and spending down, they need to in good faith offer an inflation-compensation tax credit for 2022 without having to itemize deductions and lose your standard. One separate one for everyone not on foodstamps or other government assistance for the food and general goods inflation, and the other for mileage due to gas expense. People when filing tax returns should be able to impute how many miles they drove when gas was record high and the difference between 2022 and 2019 gas price based on the national average or the June 2022 average for the state(s) they drove the most in, that difference should be reimbursed as a pure tax credit. If the Democrats want to ever earn any brownie points with me, now is their chance. Trust people to input the numbers in good faith, maybe provide a screenshot or two of their odometer if they have it, but generally limit the audits to people who claim insanely high miles like six-figure.

    The anti-woke train is stale for sure, but the dems would be wise to hold back the radical s as much as possible and return to being blue dogs. A Joe Manchin would win in a landslide in this type of environment where the majority of voters in most states are independent or party elastic. But we can't have green new deal climate jihad, that's far worse to our nation's economy and well being than a few trans gots and s here and there.

    One thing I always thought the Republicans should have given up on like 20+ years ago was that of abortion. If you believe in freedom you don't believe the government should have control of what a person (i.e. woman) does with her own body. That's it and that's all. If you don't believe in both abortion rights and gun rights then you're a hypocrite, plain and simple. Roe v Wade codification should have been done LONG before gay marriage codification... and what about weed? How come the Dems haven't held true to their long awaited promise to deliver on federally legal weed codified? That should have been done long before gay marriage as well. Heck that should have been done in the 1960s and 70s when more people were getting high than not.

    Federal Judge grants motion for sanctions on team Kari Lake for filing a frivolous lawsuit. It's what should have happened to Trump about 60 times after he lost the election, hope this sort of thing becomes more common if sore loser Republicans keep filing garbage lawsuits like this.
    Lake needs to give it up, but she should have never challenged Karrin Taylor-Robson in the first place. Robson would have been governor elect and beaten Hobbs by over 5%. It's clear that people see Lake as a radical religious QAnon extremist type. She has a career waiting for her on Newsmax though.

    still blaming liberals for the Dobbs opinion being leaked when it’s obvious Alito leaked the opinion to freeze Kavanaugh and Gorsuch
    If Trump actually deeply cared about his motley crew of hand-selected house and senate candidates and actually wanted them to win instead of getting embarrassed, he would have told his 3 appointees to vote for stare decisis and codification of Roe, regardless of what Alito and Thomas wanted.

  21. #871
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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  22. #872
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    It's not quite Trump era or the last 2 years of Obama era low. It's more like a median of Obama's first six years average / Bush's last 3 years.

    I think if the Dems plan on keeping gas reasonable and inflation and spending down, they need to in good faith offer an inflation-compensation tax credit for 2022 without having to itemize deductions and lose your standard. One separate one for everyone not on foodstamps or other government assistance for the food and general goods inflation, and the other for mileage due to gas expense. People when filing tax returns should be able to impute how many miles they drove when gas was record high and the difference between 2022 and 2019 gas price based on the national average or the June 2022 average for the state(s) they drove the most in, that difference should be reimbursed as a pure tax credit. If the Democrats want to ever earn any brownie points with me, now is their chance. Trust people to input the numbers in good faith, maybe provide a screenshot or two of their odometer if they have it, but generally limit the audits to people who claim insanely high miles like six-figure.

    The anti-woke train is stale for sure, but the dems would be wise to hold back the radical s as much as possible and return to being blue dogs. A Joe Manchin would win in a landslide in this type of environment where the majority of voters in most states are independent or party elastic. But we can't have green new deal climate jihad, that's far worse to our nation's economy and well being than a few trans gots and s here and there.

    One thing I always thought the Republicans should have given up on like 20+ years ago was that of abortion. If you believe in freedom you don't believe the government should have control of what a person (i.e. woman) does with her own body. That's it and that's all. If you don't believe in both abortion rights and gun rights then you're a hypocrite, plain and simple. Roe v Wade codification should have been done LONG before gay marriage codification... and what about weed? How come the Dems haven't held true to their long awaited promise to deliver on federally legal weed codified? That should have been done long before gay marriage as well. Heck that should have been done in the 1960s and 70s when more people were getting high than not.



    Lake needs to give it up, but she should have never challenged Karrin Taylor-Robson in the first place. Robson would have been governor elect and beaten Hobbs by over 5%. It's clear that people see Lake as a radical religious QAnon extremist type. She has a career waiting for her on Newsmax though.


    If Trump actually deeply cared about his motley crew of hand-selected house and senate candidates and actually wanted them to win instead of getting embarrassed, he would have told his 3 appointees to vote for stare decisis and codification of Roe, regardless of what Alito and Thomas wanted.
    Well wages have also gone up since then, so I think proportionally the gas prices are about where they should be at right now.

    With you on weed legalization. I hold the libertarian position on drugs.

  23. #873
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
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    Who won?
    Last edited by FrostKing; 12-02-2022 at 08:52 AM.

  24. #874
    Against Home Schooling Ef-man's Avatar
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    tick tock
    The knee is bent.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/cochise-cou...dterm-election

  25. #875
    Enemy of the System Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Well if Cochise refused to certify, there's a good chance the math in that House district would have flipped that red district blue.... AZ-02 I believe it is? Eli Crane's district.

    Well wages have also gone up since then, so I think proportionally the gas prices are about where they should be at right now.

    With you on weed legalization. I hold the libertarian position on drugs.
    Well wages have gone up and tipflation is a thing (though it's still the customer's choice and I don't tip anyone except full service restaurant servers) but there's a massive labor shortage and the fake low unemployment number is skewed because it fails to account for discouraged workers mooching off the government or otherwise 18-65 and not disabled but not working (i.e., John Fetterman types living off their parents well into their 30s and 40s with no job). I believe that a law should be passed that the unemployment number should account for all of those who are able to work who are out of a job, including discouraged workers, freeloaders, single parents, stay at home parents, and those who otherwise choose not to work. Not just the 3-4% or so of job applicants who can't find a job.

    What we need to do is fight back and reverse inflation back to about 10-12 years ago and get more Americans to work. Fill those short staffed service jobs even if it means each worker gets a smaller piece of the pie, i.e. wage stagnation. Get rid of welfare and government assistance/unemployment for those who are not disabled and are 18-65 and physically able to work. Raise interest rates high to discourage borrowing and encourage smart saving up and spending the right way, and also that slashes inflation and encourages people to buy safe inflation-beating bonds instead of highly risky investments like stocks and crypto which give people panic attacks, increase stress, and reduce life expectancy. No more foreign aid for Ukraine or anywhere else. That money needs to be spent in the USA only. Also the defense contractors still make way too much US taxpayer money.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 12-02-2022 at 11:48 AM.

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