11.08.2022.
1. (senate seat)
Making it a law to ban the enforcement of election integrity must be illegal and uncons utional.
Perhaps not ironically, Katie Hobbs, the worst offender that gave Biden the * victory in AZ in 2020, is at the top of the ticket.
The flow of salty liberal tears after Lake and Masters win will be awesome to watch, tbh
Keep a close eye on this. 538 is liberal pipe dream trash. This is actually objective and nonpartisan unlike Nate Plastic, though:
https://www.predic .org/markets/17/US-Elections
Nevada:
Trump v. Biden = Trump +12
Rep. v. Dem. = Rep +9
Sisolak v. Lombardo = Lombardo +5
Masto v. Laxalt = Laxalt +5
I predict
Laxalt +4.5
Oz +3.5
Walker +1.5 but goes to a runoff
Masters +1.5
Bolduc/Hassan +/- 0.5
Budd +7.5
Johnson +9
Vance +10.5
Rubio +17
"54" on GOP senate seats is up to 21% and second place. [Bolduc surging.]
https://www.predic .org/markets/17/US-Elections
WA - Murray vs. Smiley - Murray wins by 2.5%, similar to 2010
CO - Bennett vs. O'Dea - Bennett wins by 6.5%
IL - Duckworth vs. Silva - Duckworth wins by 9%
I think the GOP will hold their current seats and pick up GA and NV...GA in a runoff with no libertarian on the ballot means, I think, Walker wins easily.
I also think that too many people in PA have already voted and so Fetterneck somehow wins PA, partly because not enough people like OZ. BTW, Pennsylvania, you are insane as a state for putting a cripple into the senate.
52 seats in the senate and of course they take the house by at least 20 seats.
So then we just hope Manchin isn't bribed and takes off with the left on some BS azz bills in the lame duck session... If so, the government is essentially frozen till 2024 when we trot out a A+ candidate like DeSantis to clean Pete Booytjudge's clock in the general.
Fetterman is losing. Big.
So you're implying with the 52-48 prediction that Masters wins in AZ but Oz loses to Fetterman?
Need to take the House by much more than 20 seats. In a neutral year they win the house by 20 seats. In a red wave year the GOP should easily have 240-250 total seats.
Oh, and you're kidding yourself bad if you think the Dems are going to run Buttigieg or anyone else not named Joe Biden if Biden is still alive.
No, I think we lose Az too.
A lot of early PA vote is already in and Dems always outnumber Reps in early voting...always
This is the new democratic party that loves them some iden y politics. The next Dem nominee will have to be gay or black or both.
Latest 538 projection, updated daily:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Senate control betting odds:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...senate-control
This makes AZ more interesting:
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...a4Rd4AMVqrgIOv
Then your math is wrong. If we lose both PA and AZ then the best we do is win 51 unless we pull off the upset in NH which is possible but I don't see winning NH but losing PA and AZ.
For the record I'm pretty confident both Lake and Masters will win. Sure the state split ticketed in 2018, but that was a radically different environment and Doug Ducey was a centrist with an (R) next to his name, with a generic conservative who was appointed twice never elected in McSally who was an unpopular in bent both times.... a far cry from Lake and Masters who are both equally on the MAGA train. If Lake wins, Masters wins.
538 is both always behind and consistently skewed left. I'll only glance at them for humor's sake, but I don't take them seriously. I take Predic and RCP seriously.
For example, in 538 Nate Plastic's prediction has Laura Kelly favored substantially to win KS Gov... Fetterman still favored in PA, Laxalt barely up in NV which Dems have given up on. The only one I see that they're better on than Predic is the TX gubernatorial which they have 99% to 1% in favor of Abbott which is more accurate than Predic 's 93 to 7 margin.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-02-2022 at 08:18 AM.
https://www.predic .org/markets/17/US-Elections
54 (GOP Senate Seats) takes the lead officially in Predic .
So it does on 538, which predicted Brandon win fairly accurately, unlike you…https://www.predic .org/markets/17/US-Elections
54 (GOP Senate Seats) takes the lead officially in Predic .
No it doesn't. 538 still has Fetterman, Hassan (ok), and Kelly winning... two of those three aren't going to happen.
Also still has Laura Kelly winning handily in the governor race in Kansas which isn't happening. Also has Whitmer in Michigan winning 88% chance to 12% with a 7% margin of victory.... ain't happening.
I've posted it multiple times this summer and fall, the closest senate race is going to be New Hampshire.... and it's pretty obvious now that I was right all along.
Hassan vs. Bolduc. Pure coin flip. If one of the Sununu's had decided to run for senate it would be likely to safe R flip; if it were Chuck Morse it would be tilt to lean R, but with Bolduc who's maybe slightly too pro-military for NH standards, it's a pure toss up.
-Lee Zeldin, Tudor Dixon trending up big time
-Darren Bailey (IL) looks to be making a last-ditch surge, but is it too late? Pritzker is definitely beatable, but impossible to outspend because he's worth about 50 billion and his family is worth over 5x as Elon Musk.
-Doug Mastriano unfortunately doesn't seem to be trending up at this time. Looks to be a split ticket in PA.
They have them as tossup, which it’s what they are, tbh
MI governor, NH senator are pure toss up
AZ senate is Tilt R, Kelly is polling at 46.7% as an in bent with a lot of GOP-leaning undecideds that will vote red still not accounted for.
NY governor is Tilt D, which is just ridiculously embarrassing for team blue tbh
PA senate is Lean R at this point. PA governor is lean to tilt D but could surprise people.
GA senate is Tilt R to Lean R (GA governor is Likely R at this point), but if there's a runoff in the senate anything can happen, like Perdue winning in 2020 but only getting 49.7% and losing to the same opponent in the runoff.
WA senate is Lean D, but we saw that before in 2010
IL senate is Likely D. But the governor's race there will surprise some people.
KS governor is Likely to Safe R tbh.
Updates on Oregon Governor?
https://www.predic .org/markets/17/US-Elections
~60% chance Drazan (R) wins.
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