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why would anyone care about your predictions after how laughably wrong you were this year?
Tester is more vulernable than Brown. Brown has heavy down ballot support and Tim Ryan was a carbon copy of him and we saw how close he got.
either way, I believe the class of '06ers are gone except for maybe Casey. We don't know who the PA candidate will be. I believe a McCormick type with Trump on the ballot would be compe ive or possibly win. Someone like Oz or Barnette would obviously lose, but I don't think Oz is considering going into politics any longer. Depends on the candidate. Stabenow is the stronger of the two senator in bents in MI, but again it's wait and see on the GOP candidate. The GOP governor race in MI this year was a show... both MI GOP and PA GOP need to step up their game. Tammy Baldwin is indeed vulnerable but if and only if the GOP picks a strong candidate, not a hand-selected Trump candidate that nobody ever heard of before until the year-of like a Blake Masters. I think Laxalt beats Rosen, who is the weaker of the two NV in bents. Sinema is the stronger and obviously more bipartisan of the two AZ in bents, so I don't think she loses, unless someone like Meghan McCain is running against her. Yes, Klobuchar isn't losing Minnesota. As for Maine, Angus King is likely to retire and if it's Golden, yes he will win but he'll hardly be a more solid (D) vote in the senate compared to Susan Collins. Maine would have two essentially swing vote senators. Also, the Dems would lose ME-02 at the house level if Golden is running for senator. Youngkin could beat Kaine, depending on the national environment; though we'd have to wait and see on the popularity of Youngkin in VA by that point. I wouldn't say he's the favorite considering that Biden would be the favorite to win VA at the top of the ticket, but if you look at the performance of someone like Hung Cao in NOVA (yes he lost, but by a smallish margin) that's telling me there's a chance for VA GOP to win down ballot, up to and including senate.
Hung Cao lost by over 5% (smallish margin).
Right, but it's a Biden ~20% seat in very urban/suburban NOVA.Hung Cao lost by over 5% (smallish margin).
Majewski_Messiah thinks Hung "Ching chong your dog is gone!" Cao can beat Tim Kaine in a statewide race in a presidential election year
Last edited by Will Hunting; 11-18-2022 at 02:17 PM.
Golden literally supports Medicare for All
Not at all; I was saying Youngkin could and point to the red-trending direction in the (Biden + ~20) district Cao fairly narrowly lost this year as a sign that the GOP could be compe ive in, and even win statewide federal races in VA.Majewski_Messiah thinks Hung "Ching chong your dog is gone!" Cao can beat Tim Kaine in a statewide race in a presidential election year
Wasn't suggesting Hung Cao run.
also@ "Majewski_Messiah"
but on that note...
I have the new Map Ohio should draw. Keeps a VRA district, keeps Kaptur and the new OH-01 Democrat happy, and gives a seat for the in bent Democrat in Cleveland. Breaks no Ohio rules, doesn't crack any cities that are the largest city of each county, and doesn't crack a non-district sized county more than 2 ways. All contiguous since it's common practice to use water as a connector. Here you go:
Except the Ohio cons ution requires that each district either be contained within an entire county or that it has an entire county in it.Not at all; I was saying Youngkin could and point to the red-trending direction in the (Biden + ~20) district Cao fairly narrowly lost this year as a sign that the GOP could be compe ive in, and even win statewide federal races in VA.
Wasn't suggesting Hung Cao run.
also
but on that note...
I have the new Map Ohio should draw. Keeps a VRA district, keeps Kaptur and the new OH-01 Democrat happy, and gives a seat for the in bent Democrat in Cleveland. Breaks no Ohio rules, doesn't crack any cities that are the largest city of each county, and doesn't crack a non-district sized county more than 2 ways. All contiguous since it's common practice to use water as a connector. Here you go:
the Ohio cons ution also doesn’t allow cracking a county more than 3 ways, and it says you have to draw a district within the city limits of Columbus.
This map violates multiple parts of the OH cons ution.
This year?
Good luck, MM,,,Id rather democrats win than see rino republicans like you take the white house. I'll vote democrat if Desantis is the choice just out of spite and I dont give a if the country burns to the ground because of it,,,,
Why is life so terrible for you?
Boomer confirmed...
True, also depends on the state of the economy. If it is more stabilized by then and the GOP decides to run on a platform of scary Fentanyl rainbow candy are coming for your kids, then forget everything I said and the GOP loses in a landslide on all 3 fronts.
Imo inflation and MUH GAS PRICES aren’t going to be a thing, the question is how much we’re going to be reeling from the fed’s rate hikes.
I hope the Fed raises it above 10% honestly. I don't care if it's Dem or Republican. I just want to see the house market get ice cold for a change for the first time since I was like 14 or 15 or so and didn't have money to actually buy in the last recession. I'm sitting on a ton of liquid dough and I just want to buy houses and make money.
As so I figured... drawing out Beatty in Columbus won't happen. It's only theoretically possible if the new court overturns the newer rules. So pretty much my map is good except for keeping the Beatty D+30 or so seat in Columbus. A solid 11-4 isn't bad. It's still one pick up.
How do you figure DeSantis as a RINO?
Exactly.......
If anything, Trump is the real RINO.
-He was a registered Democrat up until the mid 2000s.
-He is economically "populist", not conservative.
-He is more Keynesian than traditional classical economic conservative.
-He started the Covid Stimulus pandora's box
-He told people to mask up and get vaxxed until those became unpopular amongst the conservative base
-Operation warp speed was a communofascist big government ploy
-He was asleep at the switch in the riots of Summer 2020 and failed to use the national guard to squash Antifa/BLM at that time, which in large part led to him being seen as incompetent and being a one term president.
His signature piece of legislation was a massive tax cut so that corporations could buy a bunch of their own stock back, that's as conservative as economic legislation comes.
Your map violated the Ohio cons ution in 10 different ways, I just picked the most obvious ones.
There is a way to draw a locked in 11-4 map just not in the autistic way you did.
It's expansionary / Keynesian / inflationary fiscal economic policy, consistent with the 2020 and later stimulus bull manure piles.
His signature piece of legislation was a massive tax cut so that corporations could buy a bunch of their own stock back, that's as conservative as economic legislation comes.
What we need now to fix the economy is major contractionary economic policy, from both the fiscal and monetary side.
What do you consider to be "locked in"? +15? +20? +10?
Because places like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron are very blue -- but the outer parts of their counties are both quite populated and very red, so if you have to draw the whole county together you end up getting quite purple districts.
LOL calling tax cuts for the rich and for corporations during a time when the economy is decent Keynesian.
I definitely don't believe in tax cuts for corporations. I also think there should be a wealth/net profit limit on corporations, particularly BigTech and BigPharma but also big banks etc.
So someone against tax cuts for corporations and against limiting abortion was one of this site's biggest Trump s for six years. JFC
I also travel 30000-60000 miles a year and care about other things such as gas and food prices not to go up. So, yeah. And I'd prefer it if >97% of the population stayed normal, i.e. not LGBTQ+, like the good old days the "others" should be a fringe group and the exception, not the norm. And I don't believe in big government, whether it be surveillance, the "[anti] Patriot Act", TSA, gun control, or regulating your thermostat i.e. restricting your personal comfort. And just as government protects consumers and employees/contractors from discrimination based on race and religion, etc. they should also protect the individual's right to choose to or not to wear a mask and to or not to have taken specific vaccines. Basically I'm a classic libertarian but I do believe in consumer protection activism, basic fundamental concepts such as maintaining long-term price stability, and that big business monopoly should not be allowed to restrict or hire or fire based on restricting individual freedom and liberties.So someone against tax cuts for corporations and against limiting abortion was one of this site's biggest Trump s for six years. JFC
I don't agree with 80% of anything either party has to offer; I simply side with the lesser of the two evils, per-se. Which is why the myriad single-issue voters, i.e. the armada of 20-something college girls that came out and voted based on freedom of abortion alone this midterm cycle, should not be allowed to vote until they learn where both and all sides stand on all the issues. But I digress.
Simply put.....
Both the (D)s and (R)s are hypocrites on the "My Body My Choice" debate
The (D)s think it should apply to abortion, but not masks and vaccines
The (R)s think it should apply to masks and vaccines, but not abortion
That's why libertarianism is the way to go. End big government
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