The Road To 270 ECV for the GOP in 2024 is Harder Than Ever Before

[Millennial_Messiah]

Realistically, post the midterms, especially the governor and state legislature races, this is what we're going to get for 2024, regardless of whether it's Trump, Desantis or some establishment GOP candidate at the top of the ticket vs. Biden:




If Biden runs, the Democrats keep control of the White House in 2024. Plain and simple. Do some basic math, especially considering who won at the governor and senate levels as well as other trends and my map is pretty darn accurate.

Where else are the GOP going to realistically pick off? Okay maybe they can win back Georgia but that's not going to be easy anymore. Could they pull off Georgia AND New Mexico? NM is trending red but all 3 House seats there went blue, albeit by fairly narrow margins as well as the governor race there. Meanwhile the Democrats proved New Hampshire is no longer a swing state, and states like PA and especially MI zoomed hard to the left.

The GOP just barely got by at the Senate level in 2022 and that's where I expect them to be in 2024. In Nevada IMO Lombardo's narrow victory points the GOP in the right direction there. But Arizona is a fully blown blue state now. It's about like what the GOP was up against in the years leading up to 2016, except you essentially trade Arizona for Wisconsin, and maybe pick up Nevada. But Virginia isn't coming back to the GOP, no matter how hard Youngkin wants to make it happen. NY/CA are realigning back to a lesser but still comfortable enough Democrat margins.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting

I think if it's Trump, he carries WI and makes PA compe ive but loses in AZ and GA, thus losing the election

MI isn't on the table for the GOP in 2024. They need a lot of stuff to go their way in that state in 2026 to make that state compe ive in 2028.

If it's DeSantis, he carries AZ and GA but loses PA and WI, thus losing the election

That's that

On a positive note for the GOP, I do see both CA and NY trending back to the right, though slowly, Zeldin and the now-competent CA GOP made a difference. Orange County flipped back. Long Island is solid red.