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Thomas Hofeller really screwed this country up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/06/07/once-secret-files-gerrymandering-strategist-show-gop-misled-court-watchdog-group-claims/
Wishful thinking is the law of the land
Thomas Hofeller really screwed this country up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/06/07/once-secret-files-gerrymandering-strategist-show-gop-misled-court-watchdog-group-claims/
Wisconsin Republicans are desperate to preserve their extreme partisan gerrymandering. Justice Protasiewicz's description is factually correct.
Wine Ho,,,the cherry picker doing his thing as usual,,,,but democrat gerrymander just like republicans,,,,,lmao
Court rules N.Y. Democrats gerrymandered congressional map (nbcnews.com)
ALBANY, N.Y. — New York state Democrats engaged in gerrymandering when drawing new congressional district boundaries for the next decade, a panel of five mid-level appellate judges ruled Thursday.
what do you say now, Wine Ho?,,,you es trying to stack the deck also for the next decade,,,,,
NY politics is bareknuckled and crooked in a number of ways, as I've pointed out many times here.
Their bad doesn't make yours right, nor is NY comparable to Wisconsin in the severity of the bias in appportionment.
https://campaignlegal.org/update/wis...her-way-aroundThirteen years ago, Wisconsin politicians drew new district lines behind closed doors and, in defiance of the state cons ution, crafted maps that essentially guaranteed one-party control of the legislature.
This was borne out in 2018 when, despite winning 53% of state Assembly votes cast statewide, Democrats only ended up with 36% of the seats.
Aside, NY Dem governors tend to make common cause with Republicans on certain things, like judicial appointments. Cuomo was notorious for uniting with the right against the left wing of his own party, but Hochul does it too sometimes.
Wisconsin has a gerrymandered GOP Senate supermajority despite having a roughly the same amount of voters as the Dems statewide. There's not another US state that compares closely.
Ohio has ignored seven state Supreme Court orders to redraw their maps more fairly, the desperate contempt for voters and clinging to power is impressive there too.
They’re just pissing into the wind. If they impeach Janet Evers gets to pick her replacement, and unless the impeach and remove prior to 12/01 (unlikely), that replacement holds office until 2031.
The democrats (barely) control enough ins utions in Wisconsin to prevent Robin Vos from being a totalitarian shadow governor.
They got a federal judge to issue an order last year that saved them.
The Republican justice in Ohio who hated gerrymander and just retired, Maureen OConnor, is leading the charge to gather signatures on an independent commission ballot amendment that mandates maps need to be drawn proportionally.
If it gets on the ballot in 2024 it’ll almost surely pass and Ohio would have new maps by 2026.
Meanwhile the Dems were smart to withdraw their pending lawsuit over the existing maps. if the Ohio GOP redrew those maps they’d likely make it even more one sided and put Kaptur + Landsman in jeopardy of losing.
You too don't pay one bit of attention to the SC. So, it's only fair that we ignore them as well.
Let us proceed...
Alabama’s SCOTUS pe ion was just rejected. They’ve exhausted all possible avenues now, a 2nd black district is happening.
One of these three maps is getting selected, and all of them create two majority black voting age population district that are safe D the rest of the decade.
This is where redistricting changes for 2024 stand, ranked in order of significance:
New York - the COA is set to hear the lawsuit in November. If the new liberal majority actually lets Dems gerrymander, they net 4-5 seats. This is a coin flip imo.
North Carolina - It's not a matter of if but when the maps get redrawn, which will net Republicans 3-4 house seats.
Ohio - Map is going to remain as is, and I think all 5 Dem in bents hold their seat in 2024.
New Mexico - Even though it's a liberal state supreme court, it's not overly hackish and I think it forces a new map that nets the Rs a seat.
Utah - Similar to New Mexico, it's a supreme court that's conservative but not hackish at all. I think it forces a redraw w/ a blue Salt Lake City seat.
Georgia - pending VRA lawsuit in Federal court. I still think this one is a longshot but my understanding is that Georgia's lawyers have grossly mismanaged the trial so far.
Alabama - Dems are guaranteed to net a seat now.
Louisiana - Similar lawsuit as what Dems filed in AL that now has a real chance at success since SCOTUS is clearly upholding VRA Section 2, but I still think a 2nd black district in Louisiana isn't as clear as one in AL.
Florida - The Florida GOP has (strangely) already admitted that the current map violates state law, and it's banking on a ruling that said state law violates the (U.S.) cons ution. Even though the FL Supreme Court is hackish, they don't have standing to rule something violates the US cons ution, and idk how they get around Florida admitting that gutting Al Lawson's district violates state law.
so, basically, barring long shot cases in GA/LA/FL, the GOP likely maintains a narrow House majority in 2024, somewhere in the 220-225 ballpark,
assuming NY/NC cancel out (I believe the NY Dems gain at least a couple flips even with the current map, even if no Dem gerrymander), AL gains one Dem, Yvette Harrell wins back her seat. The one flip I can see in Ohio is the Amelia Sykes district based around Akron and Summit County. Trump will win that in 2024 and Sykes isn't exactly some juggernaut in bent having narrowly defeated Madison Gilbert who was a piss poor candidate in an open purple seat. Additionally, Marcy Kaptur's seat will be much more difficult in 2024 than 2022 because (a) she won't be facing Majewski, and (b) she'll have to WAY overperform Biden to win because Trump is going to win that seat by near -or- double digits. I still think Kaptur gets it done because she's loaded, huge war chest etc, but it will be close.
I believe Trump on the ballot will cost Cartwright re-election in PA and possibly Susan Wild as well. Spanberger in central VA seems to be not running for re-election, so if that's the case that could be a flip, 50/50 chance. Similar goes for Michigan's 7th open seat with Slotkin not up for re-election in that seat, with Trump at the top of the ticket. I would wager that Kildee would hold MI-08, even if Trump narrowly wins that district.
Presidential election years generally favor in bents. Zinke's seat could be close if Tester wins that western Montana district (even though he'll likely lose overall). I think Schweikert and Bacon hold on one more time in a general election year, narrowly, and probably go down in 2026, similar to Chabot in 2022. WA-03 will flip back red, and OR-05 has a better than even chance of flipping back blue IMO. Duarte and Valadao will have to overperform Trump in their districts but they are trending red so they have a fighting chance.
Another wild card is Nevada, which has 3 in bent Dems in all districts that will be close at the presidential level, and if Trump does win Nevada which is about a 50/50 chance, they could get one or more flips there, but I'm assuming for this purpose that the 3 Dems all hold. It's going to be a dogfight.
Oh and one other thing I forgot - which may straight up cancel out the Alabama thing - Alaska possibly getting rid of RCV ahead of the '24 election, and/or not having 2 in-fighting GOP House candidates against Mary Peltola. Should be a flip on a Trump + double digit presidential election ticket if it's more of a one-on-one, especially without RCV.
Hence 220-225 R, 210-215 D. It will be close.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 09-26-2023 at 11:48 AM.
Southern MAGAs cucked again.
Alabama gets new congressional map that could yield Democrats a second seat in the state
A federal court on Thursday approved a new congressional map in Alabama that significantly boosts the Black population of a second district and could represent a pickup opportunity for Democrats in next year’s elections.
The action by the three-judge panel – along with the outcomes of several other closely watched redistricting cases around the country – could help determine which party controls the US House of Representatives after 2024. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the chamber.
https://www.cnn.com/alabama-congressional-map-ruling
That was probably worst case scenario for Dems though. That new 2nd district includes the Black Belt counties and has a roughly 50% black population, but those are rural, low turnout counties. I'd say with funding advantages down there and slight but sure trends amongst rural blacks, the GOP probably still carries that seat by a slim margin.Southern MAGAs cucked again.
Alabama gets new congressional map that could yield Democrats a second seat in the state
A federal court on Thursday approved a new congressional map in Alabama that significantly boosts the Black population of a second district and could represent a pickup opportunity for Democrats in next year’s elections.
The action by the three-judge panel – along with the outcomes of several other closely watched redistricting cases around the country – could help determine which party controls the US House of Representatives after 2024. Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the chamber.
https://www.cnn.com/alabama-congressional-map-ruling
Outside of Montgomery County that district is still going to be heavy red and the Dems will need abnormally high black turnout in their favor -- in a district that's only 50% black -- to actually flip that seat.
Updates:
-Alabama is resolved
-I was wrong about New Mexico, Dems got a favorable district court ruling from an R judge
-5th circuit ruled against Dems in LA and I doubt SCOTUS intervenes to help Dems in LA like it did in AL
the district voted for Biden by 12% in 2020 and Hillary by 10% in 2016.
Even Katie Britt lost the district by 0.5% last year as probably the highest quality senate candidate Rs recruited against a no-name candidate who had no state or national support from Dems (Britt won by 36% statewide, overperforming Trump by 12%).
You're just completely makings stuff up with "heavy red outside of Montgomery County"...if you exclude Montgomery County, the district voted for Biden by 4% in 2020.
I don't really understand why the special master left some heavily black precincts in Mobile, Tuscaloosa & Birmingham outside of the two VRA seats, but this seat is still likely D in a presidential election and lean D in an adverse midterm environment for Dems.
Mississippi is the only state where the Dems would be at serious risk of losing a 49% black VAP seat...the old adage about how "there's the deep south and then there's Mississippi" is still true with white voter trends in the area. As red as Alabama's white voters are, they're not staunchly genously red the way MS's voters are.
Anyway, the GOP's point about how Alabama is now gerrymandered to create two black districts isn't entirely without merit, but that's due to the federal laws the GOP refuses to change, so it's their own fault.
The obvious way to draw a fair map in Alabama be for the blue seats to be (1) a ~Biden +10 Birmingham area seat that includes all of Jefferson County, and (2) a ~Biden +15% blackbelt seat that includes Tuscaloosa, Montgomery, Selma, Tuskegee, but doesn't have the arm that stretches into Mobile the way the current district does, except the only way that's going to happen is if the GOP agreed to federal redistricting guidelines + a gerrymandering ban that replaces VRA section 2.
yeah, in MS even the (white majority) college towns are quite red, while in AL they are at least purple with plenty of blue precincts.
Even Katie Britt lost the district by 0.5% last year as probably the highest quality senate candidate Rs recruited against a no-name candidate who had no state or national support from Dems (Britt won by 36% statewide, overperforming Trump by 12%).
You're just completely makings stuff up with "heavy red outside of Montgomery County"
I don't really understand why the special master left some heavily black precincts in Mobile, Tuscaloosa & Birmingham outside of the two VRA seats, but this seat is still likely D in a presidential election and lean D in an adverse midterm environment for Dems.
Mississippi is the only state where the Dems would be at serious risk of losing a 49% black VAP seat...the old adage about how "there's the deep south and then there's Mississippi" is still true with white voter trends in the area. As red as Alabama's white voters are, they're not staunchly genously red the way MS's voters are.
I still think if the in bent runs on in bency alone they can survive in a presidential year, but won't survive say 2026 if Trump wins. AL is a state where the GOP generally way out-fund the Dems. If the in bent in jeopardy just outright retires, like what Kinzinger and that other IL GOP guy did after the IL Dems gerrymandered that map to , it's going blue for sure in '24
Honestly both the original map and the court ordered map are ugly gerrymanders. What does Mobile have to do with the black belt? Nothing. Why lump the blackest precincts only of both Birmingham and Montgomery together but none of the rest of the county? Not good, either.
The GOP's argument that makes the most sense is that due to geography they absolutely have zero shot at representation in the pasty-white but generally secular Northeast, despite having 30-40% of the population be conservatives up there... but yet in the south the roles are reversed but they're forced to draw blue districts over skin color, which is racist and ridiculous in 2023.
Also this "funding" argument is re ed. No that historically the R was better funded than the Dem in a safe red Alabama seat. Are you seriously arguing that's not going to change at all when the seat becomes the easiest pickup opportunity? The Dems not funding Alabama isn't a law of physics, it's done intentionally since there's no reason to fund unwinnable races.
They should stop being so toxic to educated people with an IQ above 85 then. It's their own fault that New Englanders think they're re ed and genously vote against them.
It's more about religion and culture wars. Very few evangelicals up there. Most people in the northeast who are not liberal are either libertarian or moderate. Many of which still vote Democrat because they associate Republicans with evangelism. They'll vote for a Sununu or Phil Scott or even a Susan Collins type occasionally, but anyone remotely associated with being too religious is a hard no for them.
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