Are you including or excluding the Santos/Suozzi seat? Because even GOP pundits had the Dems netting 3-4 seats from 2022 to 2024 with or without a changed map. That's assuming they don't go extreme and try to draw out people like Malliotakis again.
I still see the Senate as Tilt to Lean R and the House control will be in the 220s either way, very narrow control on either side, and will depend on who wins the Presidency. Open seats like MI-07 and MI-08 can absolutely flip if Trump does better in MI than 2020. OH-09 for instance is flippable with a well funded, socially moderate candidate. If Trump flips Nevada (I'm still not sold, but the right wing and even centrist podcasts and polls seem to think it can happen) then 1, 2, or even all 3 of the Democrat House seats in Nevada are in jeopardy. If NE PA flips red and SE PA continues zooming blue, does Cartwright lose, probably, and does Fitzpatrick lose? Probably not because he's an ultra popular in bent, but who knows. Out west, CO-03 was a major question mark and with Hoebert moving, it's not going to flip blue. I have OR-05 flipping back blue and WA-03 flipping back red. If Trump does at least as well as in 2020 or better in Arizona then Schweikert holds on one more cycle, even with legal abortion likely to pass on the same ticket. I'm not convinced that the Central Valley California GOP in bents (Duarte/Valadao) are necessarily doomed; I think that area has authentically trended red as it's majority hispanic rural/exurban working class, not hispanic urbanites like the west coast of Cali.
As per current presidential polling data, factoring in the Dems probably gain 1-2 net seats in redistricting, but also factoring in the Democrat retirements in swing state swing districts and also factoring in that the GOP seriously underperformed in 2022 when abortion is a much hotter topic than 2024 (not saying it'll be a non-issue, but it'll be towards the bottom since most states have already decided by this point)... the house is Lean R. 224 R or so would be about my best guess. But in a Biden re-election victory scenario I wouldn't be surprised if Jeffries gets a slim majority.