NBA Trade Deadline 2023

[tbdog]

Did warriors trade Wiseman for gp3?

[DPG21920]

Did warriors trade Wiseman for gp3?

Yup

[JeffDuncan]

The math doesn't break down by early or late in production. Value yes. But taken as a whole, the odds of a SRP being in the league at 3 years is less than 20% -- early or late. And of those fewer than 3% are all stars or have 10 year careers.

One problem in what you’re saying is that the “10 year career” rule misses Jokic, for example. It rules out the entire last 10 years of the draft. The analysis has to be more reasonable. But 3 years, okay.

Go back to the 2014 draft, 2nd round, and look for players in the league 3 yrs or more.

K.J. McDaniels, Joe Harris, Johnny O’Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, JOKIC, Markel Brown, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae.

No matter what anybody says, I would darn sure have wanted an SRP in that one. Preferably more than one.

You’re saying, I refuse to go diamond mining because I know the average rock I find will only be a rock. That’s true, and everyone knows it. But the point is, not every rock will be only a rock. You’re using an “average rock “ statistical argument where the whole reason for the activity is the diamonds.

In short, stats don’t apply to unique events.

As far as value goes, the value of something is what someone else will pay for it, or trade for it.

[offset formation]

One problem in what you’re saying is that the “10 year career” rule misses Jokic, for example. It rules out the entire last 10 years of the draft. The analysis has to be more reasonable. But 3 years, okay.

Go back to the 2014 draft, 2nd round, and look for players in the league 3 yrs or more.

K.J. McDaniels, Joe Harris, Johnny O’Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, JOKIC, Markel Brown, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae.

No matter what anybody says, I would darn sure have wanted an SRP in that one. Preferably more than one.

You’re saying, I refuse to go diamond mining because I know the average rock I find will only be a rock. That’s true, and everyone knows it. But the point is, not every rock will be only a rock. You’re using an “average rock “ statistical argument where the whole reason for the activity is the diamonds.

In short, stats don’t apply to unique events.

As far as value goes, the value of something is what someone else will pay for it, or trade for it.

Yes, there is always the golden goose exception. Jokic being a lock HOFer is the problem with being as absolutist as I've been on this topic. And aside from that rarity every decade or 300 picks, my point remains valid.

And yes I used stats that back up your point. Less than 1% of SRPs make it to the all-star or 10-year mark.

So in summary, you've made a good argument but I'm still right.

[TD 21]

On the lack of 1sts being moved, there's only so many left (maybe not technically, but realistically) and most of even the best players traded are old fringe starter types.

Winners . . .

Lakers: Got significantly younger, more athletic and shooting for relatively little.
Grizzlies: Got needed 3-point shooting/secondary play making for very little.
Bucks: Added 3 and D combo forward, will probably add tertiary creator in buyout market.
Suns: Vaulted back into championship contention, possibly for up to 4 years.
Trail Blazers: Got younger, more athletic and draft equity without losing much.
Spurs: Added significantly more draft equity, one of which has potential to be high quality asset.

Losers . . .

Nuggets: Upgraded backup C (though not the type they need), but gave away best expendable asset to compe or.
Pistons: Added another pedigreed, developmental C who can't shoot for a young 3 and Dish combo forward.
Warriors: Could have had young 3 and Dish combo forward, instead chose nostalgia.
Clippers: Failed to address PG, will likely add damaging one on buyout market, continue to have too many mouths to feed.
Heat: Failed to add a true four.
Raptors: All sound, no fury. Maintained bad vibes, risked injury/outright losing assets to free agency, added another non shooter for potentially mid-late lottery pick.

[JeffDuncan]

…

So in summary, you've made a good argument but I'm still right.

You’re right about the rocks. But not about the diamonds. You won’t get the diamonds unless you pick up the, um, pick and dig.

I blame you for that sorry pun. It’s your fault.

[JPB]

As far as value goes, the value of something is what someone else will pay for it, or trade for it.

Indeed. Reason why this year SRPs were very valuable and got a lot of things done. Maybe the bubble will explode, but as long as they do get things done, they're valuable, indepedently of what players you'd get with them. With in mind a diamond in the rough can change your franchise for a decade...

[JeffDuncan]

…

Winners . . .

Lakers: Got significantly younger, more athletic and shooting for relatively little.
...

Excellent, with any luck it’ll take them out of the running for Wemby. So they’ll have to tamper their way to him 10 years from now.

[CGD]

Not really, as we've been discussing. Expect none of those to be above 40. Meaning they're ALL collectively worth maaaaaybe two Thomas Bryants.

And my guess is if we actually draft those positions those guys will be in the league for about 10 Scaramuchis.

SRPs are less about the player man. They’re the grease that get done, including today when they were thrown around like candy along with other pieces to fetch some pretty decent players.

[Kurik]

Excellent, with any luck it’ll take them out of the running for Wemby. So they’ll have to tamper their way to him 10 years from now.

New Orleans owns the Lakers pick.

[Mr. Body]

On the lack of 1sts being moved, there's only so many left (maybe not technically, but realistically) and most of even the best players traded are old fringe starter types.

Winners . . .

Lakers: Got significantly younger, more athletic and shooting for relatively little.
Grizzlies: Got needed 3-point shooting/secondary play making for very little.
Bucks: Added 3 and D combo forward, will probably add tertiary creator in buyout market.
Suns: Vaulted back into championship contention, possibly for up to 4 years.
Trail Blazers: Got younger, more athletic and draft equity without losing much.
Spurs: Added significantly more draft equity, one of which has potential to be high quality asset.

Losers . . .

Nuggets: Upgraded backup C (though not the type they need), but gave away best expendable asset to compe or.
Pistons: Added another pedigreed, developmental C who can't shoot for a young 3 and Dish combo forward.
Warriors: Could have had young 3 and Dish combo forward, instead chose nostalgia.
Clippers: Failed to address PG, will likely add damaging one on buyout market, continue to have too many mouths to feed.
Heat: Failed to add a true four.
Raptors: All sound, no fury. Maintained bad vibes, risked injury/outright losing assets to free agency, added another non shooter for potentially mid-late lottery pick.

Good thoughts. It's so hard to tell about many of these moves.

Suns: Taking a huge swing while they still have C-Paul, but they were bad when it was just Boozer and Ayton and in a few years those picks could be badly needed. A franchise that has never ringed, though, go for it. I'm not even sure Durant will be healthy this year.
Nets: Sean Marks is more in his element looking for scrappy, valuable players. He ended the Era of Woeful Dip s by restocking the coffers and getting started on the next.
Raptors: Probably a loss for not moving a piece, but I do like the Poeltl trade. They have good perimeter defenders and needed someone in the middle.
Warrors: Traded Wiseman for Gary Payton, Jr.?
Clippers: Need to get a sense of what happened here. Overall I think they got some really good pieces with Gordon and Plumlee. If Leonard stays healthy they could be a menace.
Spurs: Added a good FRP and like seven SRPs for two players they wouldn't be resigning. That's almost literally two magic tricks.

[JeffDuncan]

New Orleans owns the Lakers pick.

Thank you, sir, in all that’s been going on I lost track.

[offset formation]

SRPs are less about the player man. They’re the grease that get done, including today when they were thrown around like candy along with other pieces to fetch some pretty decent players.

So like sugar on your Wheaties that is not nutritionally beneficial or ultimately worthwhile to the meal?

[offset formation]

New Orleans owns the Lakers pick.

Thought it was a swap???

[Mr. Body]

Thought it was a swap???

Yes.

[CGD]

So like sugar on your Wheaties that is not nutritionally beneficial or ultimately worthwhile to the meal?

Did you not just watch this deadline? Useful role players like GP3, Bey, Crowder, Richardson (himself), Gordon, etc., etc. just went for the cannon fodder that are SRPs.

Also, is anyone buying the already trash Wheaties without the sugar?

[Joseph Kony]

Nice, Spurs increase the tank odds get some picks while getting rid of soft ass Poeltl and not paying him 20M+ in the off season . deadline was a success

[offset formation]

Did you not just watch this deadline? Useful role players like GP3, Bey, Crowder, Richardson (himself), Gordon, etc., etc. just went for the cannon fodder that are SRPs.

Also, is anyone buying the already trash Wheaties without the sugar?

Breakfast of champions like Bruce Jenner Kardashian, so something clearly happened there with something missing?

[rascal]

There's a limit to how much you can roll the dice (can't add 4 rookies every year), but consolidating them into 2 better prospects or trade assets is a realistic path. Also, you can take a couple extra flier on draft & stash guys, like it could have been last year with Procida & Kamagate... there's usually at least one interesting draft & stash candidate every year, they don't take space on your roster, and you can always bring them if they improve enough.

Those draft and stash players haven't worked for a long time for the Spurs. Hard to find those type of steals anymore.

[NickiRasgo]

OT but damn Jazz turning bag of chips into haul of assets:

> Tyler Lydon & Trey Lyles
>> Donovan Mitc
>>> Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Three (3) Unprotected First-Round Picks (2025, 2027, 2029), Two (2) Pick Swaps (2026, 2028)


> 46th & Cash Consideration
>> Rudy Gobert
>>> Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, 2023 First-Round Pick (Unprotected), 2025 First-Round Pick (Unprotected), 2027 First-Round Pick (Unprotected), 2029 First-Round Pick (Top-Five Protected)

I know there's more but gotta stop here.

[K...]

Those draft and stash players haven't worked for a long time for the Spurs. Hard to find those type of steals anymore.

The spurs have adapted by using the g league and 2 way contracts to replace stashes. You can guarantee the spurs will use 1 to 2 SRP on the 2 ways and a few guys for the toros. Having multiple SRP increase the odds of getting a good one. We will see something fun soon with this SRP haul

[mo7888]

Gary Payton failed his physical.... trade 'could' be rescinded..

[ace3g]

Shams Charania@ShamsCharania




Just in: A failed physical exam of Gary Payton II has placed the Golden State-Portland-Detroit-Atlanta four-team deal in serious jeopardy, sources tell me and @anthonyVslater. Payton's core muscle injury could sideline him for up to three months following a Warriors exam.

6:08pm · 10 Feb 2023 · Twitter for iPhone

[ace3g]

Shams Charania ShamsCharania
38s
The Warriors have until Saturday to go through with the trade -- or have the entire four-team deal be rescinded, sources said. Golden State re-acquired Payton at the trade deadline on Thursday.

[DPG21920]

Wow - that is pretty wild.