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The older they are the harder they are to groom.
Has anyone noticed how the last two years the Spurs took the youngest (or almost youngest) available player at their spot in the 1st Round of the draft?
The Spurs took Josh Primo at #12 in 2021. He was literally the youngest player taken in the 1st Round.
The Spurs took Jeremy Sochan at #9 in 2022. Of the 22 1st Round picks available only 4 were younger than Sochan.
In other words, of the 41 1st Round picks available when the Spurs picked those two, only 4 of those 41 were younger than the players the Spurs chose. (Those younger players were all in the 2022 Draft, Ousmane Dieng (one day younger than Sochan) at 11, Jalen Duren at 13, AJ Griffin at 16 and Nikola Jovic at 27.)
Drilling down a little deeper, the Spurs picked again at 20 in the 2022 1st Round and took Malaki Branham. He was the youngest of the 11 remaining 1st Round picks taken in the draft (except for Nikola Jovic, by 20 days, taken at 27).
The Spurs picked again at 25 and took Blake Wesley. He was the youngest of the 6 remaining 1st Round picks taken in the draft (except again for Jovic taken at 27).
If you add those two results in, for the Spurs’ 4 1st Round picks over the last two years, of the 58 available players when the Spurs picked, only 6 (counting Jovic three times) of those 58 were younger than the player the Spurs actually chose. It bears repeating -- of the 58 available players when the Spurs picked, only 6 of those 58 were younger than the player the Spurs actually chose. That’s a pretty striking number – 6 in 58. It surprised me.
Does this show a strategy (or at least a bias) or is this just a statistical aberration? Small sample size, for example.
If it’s an actual bias, does it lead to reaches? Certainly that can be argued in the case of Primo.
More to the point, does this give us a clue about the Spurs potential choices in the upcoming draft? If the trend continues, it may have implications for the next draft in regard to specific players some of us here are interested in. Some who otherwise seem like perfect fits may be more (or less) likely to be chosen. The ages of those next draftees are out there.
(I think my research is correct, I tried at least to double check, but even assuming some mistakes the overall picture seems pretty clear.)
Last edited by Russ; 02-10-2023 at 10:40 AM.
The older they are the harder they are to groom.
Sengun was the second youngest in his draft class as I recall, and we should have drafted him.
Absolutely. Especially if those younger kids are showing maturity in certain areas of their game. Younger kids with a positive at ude and willingness to learn can go a long way too.
Its going to be a long tank
I hope it is just coincidental. The Primo pick will forever be a head scratcher and I definitely think age factored in that brain fart move.
It does feel like we are struggling with balancing:
- shown talent versus perceived upside
- age
- character
Some of these recent failed experiments hopefully have humbled PATFO because if we drop out of the top 2 there is a risk they take someone who would have been available 10 spots back in the name of culture, open growth plates blah blah blah.
The three draft picks last year were all freshmen who unexpectedly took on more duties on their teams as the year went on. Both Sochan and Branham were not expected to be their team's centerpieces (even though Sochan remained off the bench), and Wesley's team just wasn't very good overall. (He likely wasn't a Notre Dame recruit, but he stayed local due to Covid.)
So... that may have appealed - young players rising up earlier than expected - and so their youth was sort of incidental, because it was part of the package.
Primo was fairly similar, although played a supporting role for Alabama with older players remaining dominant. It wasn't until the combine that teams really started noticing.
So... I wouldn't say the three from last year were reaches. The whole draft now runs very young, but all three were probably the right choices at their spots. Primo, of course, was a huge surprise.
If they take this youngest route this year, then the player would be GG Jackson, for South Carolina. At the moment, this would be a big reach for him. I'm iffy on him in general, but he has his adherents.
Around our draft spot are players like Brandon Miller and the Thompson twins, who will all be near 20 and a half years old at draft time. My guy, Anthony Black is near the age of Scoot Henderson, both slightly older (at draft time) than the three we drafted this year, with Black's friend Keyonte George born a few months earlier.
All those three are around the 2-5 picks right now, where the Spurs will land, and are about 19.40 to 19.60 yrs old at draft time. If your thoughts ring true, they'd take one of these players (or similar) over a Brandon Miller or a twin.
For the 2nd round pick(s), a guy like Leonard Miller would be the pick over anyone else, especially a Trayce Jackson-Davis.
It’s a fair assumption that the Spurs will pick somewhere between 1 and 7.
Taking a look at the top 20 picks in the mocks (or at least one of them, NBADraft.net), eight of the top 20 were born in 2004 (all the others are older). In order of age from youngest they are:
GG Jackson 12/17/04
Noah Clowney 7/14/04
Cam Whitmore 7/8/04
Raven Rupert 5/31/04
Nick Smith 4/18/04
Scoot Henderson 2/3/04
Anthony Black 1/20/04
Victor Wenbanyama 1/5/04
Since Wemby and Scoot are both included (even if only looking at age), could this be an approximation of the universe of Spurs potential 1st Round picks?
(I think it might be.)
i'm pretty sure the average age of the last two drafts has been under 20
Wembanyama and Henderson are pretty much locks at 1 and 2. I'd be stunned if anything happens otherwise.
Some of those players don't seem to be top 10 right now -- Clowney, Rupert. The rest are often in the conversation at this time, Whitmore, Smith, Black. If you extend the time window, you'll probably see Keyonte George out of Baylor, a combo guard, who is mentioned around now.
The real thing this does is move some surprising names out, Amen and Ausar Thompson, and Brandon Miller, who are jockeying in many drafts around the 3-5 range.
Jackson is playing for an awful team but is supposedly showing flashes, but also some immaturity (he called out his team a little on IG).
The problem with drafting very young players is fairly evident. They simply don't have the floor time in high school and college or one of the new novice leagues to gain experience and give coaches the ability to evaluate their skill sets. Let's remember the days when drafts were confined to college grads or the equivalent. (e.g. Timmy) I would argue that those days in the ancient past produced more players with more accurate placements in the draft relative to their careers in the NBA.
The fact that many players drafted in the lottery and late first or early second rounds don't make their anticipated ceilings for one reason or another simply proves the point that these younger draft choices are pretty much mysteries and picking them can sometimes be equated to using a dart board to choose among them.
The true anomalies are the potential GOATs like LeBron who are so far ahead of their peers that their pick high in the draft is a no brainer. But once the LeBrons (or Webby?) are gone, even the lottery picks aren't a lock for greatness.
Could the Patty Coffee Gang have helped Primo?
Not trolling. Just wondering if having some peers to rap with on a regular basis could have helped?
Or was the flashing too deep seated, wasn't going to be conversed with any of the Coffee Gang.
Amen and Ausar Thompson and Brandon Miller may be the new Tyrese Haliburton and Franz Wagner types -- more complete but older. (Although the Thompsons and Miller are younger than those two, by new standards they still might be considered old.)
The Spurs passed on Haliburton much to the consternation of many here.
I think Amen and Ausar are fool's gold. They're super-athletic, sure, and have skills, but are wretched shooters. They're 20 years old playing against 18 year olds and their shooting efficiency even near the rim is terrible. Their stats don't really pop off the page, tbh, and are in a non-development space.
Brandon Miller, as I mentioned elsewhere, is very similar to Jabari Smith, Jr., in many ways, including statistically.
I'm not so sure.
I did a quick (possibly inaccurate) calculation of the average age of the First Round of the 2022 Draft -- it was 20.096 (essentially 20.1).
The Second Round was even older (as it usually is).
i should have clarified. i was speaking of the lottery section of the draft, where the spurs were picking.
Good analysis. I think there are other factors or tendencies in their draft choices, at least post Luka when Brian seemingly took more control. I do think Brian prefers players come from a stable family, appear happy and cordial, smile often, and still have some skills and show potential.
To me, it’s a lot of filters in their player search, so to speak. That’s why I think they’ll go for Anthony Black if we are outside the top 2 and he’s still available. But I’m still learning about some of these other players so obviously a lot can change and there’s more to consider.
Anthony Black is like a SF version of Jeremy Sochan.
Black is intriguing and like Sochan has a Texas connection (HS in Black's case vs. college).
I like that kids game.
Black's dad played for Baylor.
They both have wild hair.
They both lived for a time in Europe and specifically Germany.
If we were out to just pick the youngest player available, they would have drafted Duren at 9.
You'd also have to check players age above spurs picks. I'm not sure exactly of top 8 players age these last few years, but I believe (could be totally wrong) they weren't the youngest ones, but players spurs would have probably picked.
So if it remains true that spurs pick some of the younger guys among those they can pick, maybe they consider that if you're not a surefire (or probable) star with already good bases, they'd rather pick younger guys who can indeed be groomed more easily than older guys with bad habits but less talent to show for it.
Black’s stepfather is a hugely successful Texas HS basketball coach (who won like 4 state les in a row) and he is from San Antonio.
I think the Spurs tend towards youthful picks, but that’s pretty much the norm. It also helps me to sleep at night, knowing we won’t pick AND keep either of the 20 YO Thompson twins.
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