Or it's just that it's impossible to really know the value of all these young guys until they actually start to play in the NBA... For some, yeah you can see, others, you just have to wait to see if their defaults were something fixable or how if they'll mentally respond to the pressure of the NBA...
We're talking about young players who are not finished and a few months can make a huge difference. Some reveal themselves entering the NBA, others don't meet expectations. This isn't an exact scienc, that would be too easy... I mean some #1 picks were total busts, so...
The Celtics probably are interested in Poeltl, but given the conflicting reports about it, I wonder if the Spurs are using the threat of that to get the Craptors or some mystery team to meet or at least come closer to their asking price?
Not only are the Celtics and Spurs clearly on good terms, but why wouldn't the former want a fellow Eastern Conference team attempting to "compete" to splurge?
I can vouch for this. I followed last draft closely, because the Spurs had so much invested in it, more than pretty much any other draft in recent history. And the consensus (among most draft people) was that it was a weaker class than that of '21 (incredibly overrated), which was stupid to me as I watched pretty much every prospect and it seemed like a talented and deep class all the way to the 2nd round. I also never understood how people could rank anyone but Banchero no. 1, and wanted us to take Sochan, Mathurin or Daniels, and wanted and extra pick to get Eason as well, so it wasn't too far off.
This time around I'm not so confident in my assessment because I have yet to watch as many games as I did last year, which hopefully I'll start doing shortly. But so far I've tried to get myself acquainted with the most talked about prospects via clips and highlights, check stats and so forth, and judging from that (admittedly insufficient) evidence, I haven't really seen many "high ceiling, can't miss" prospects outside the top 2.
The closest is probably Cam Whitmore and I like Brandon Miller's combination of size and shooting (although he's a bit older and doesn't seem explosive or polished enough for a future star), but Keyonte George seems like a bit of an undersized chucker, Nic Smith has not performed according to expectations and to boot injured his knee, the Thompson brothers have awesome athleticism and seem plenty skilled but can't shoot to save their lives (especially Amen), have not proven themselves at any reliable level, and they'll be 20 by the time they get drafted (they're the '23 version of Sharpe in that regard), and that's the top guys in the draft.
If we were to lump together last year and this one (with what we knew pre draft, at least with my take on it), I think at the top it could go something like this:
1) Wemby 2) Banchero 3) Scoot 4) Chet 5) Cam Whitmore
So I don't really agree with the view that the top 6 this year would go no. 1 last year at all. I'll be watching more and I'm open to changing my mind if these guys prove me wrong, but like I said, I'm not super confident we can land the kind of player we need unless we land a top 2 pick.
Himself
https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/sta...61758655832066
Good news for us.Pacers coach Rick Carlisle on Myles Turner: "Yes he's off the trade block"
like others have suggested, love to see the Spurs appear to initiate a bidding war for poeltl.
Now it could come down to a team taking Peoltl just to keep him off another teams roster they may face in the playoffs.
Spurs could get another slick deal out of this.
Were that fantasy to come true would be great.
I think this is wishful thinking. Also Jak‘s play has slowly deteriorated these last 6 weeks and I have to think there is a recency bias even with the smartest GMs.
It is great that Turner is out of play but but that also just upped the ante in terms of retaining Jak come free agency. Take what you can now and move on. No room to bluff.
I’m sure they’re holding out for more, but I think it will be hard to get more than a Celtic offer of Gallo + Kornett + clean 28FRP.
I do agree that the last few weeks have seen some subdued performances from Poeltl.
Tbh I'd do that gallo kornet and 28FRP no strings attached, seems realistic.
Yeah, spurs not budging for anything else than 2 FRPs was clearly smoke.
FWIW, Boston has two decent-ish 23 SRP that could help sweeten the pot: Portlands outright and Houston’s but only if it’s not 31-32 (so that’s risky).
Yeah but it’s the correct posture to take at this time. The hope is someone gets desperate the day before.
I wonder what TOR’s standing offer is?
Seriously, not saying it'll happen and yes it's wishful thinking to want the best possible most advantageous scenario to play out for SA.
I'm saying it's the right play to run with hoping to catch someone on the verge to get desperate and again I do see a dynamic where someone pulls the trigger on Poeltl more to keep him out of a compe ors war chest than direct impact to their own team, albeit not likely. Just the mood coming down the strech to this deadline and I like the Spurs strategy. Obvs don't want the risk of Poeltl walking for nothing, but inside the franchise surely they have certain understandings about the likelihood of that risk if not outright assurances/deals in place to mitigate that altogether. I could see Peotl being happy in SA and wanting to re-sign so if that's the case it's not playing with fire as much as it appears to resist towards the deadline.
The losing is probably getting to Poeltl more than the younger players. I’m sure he knows the situation, but still, it’s bound to get tedious. A trade to a contender would probably perk him up instantly.
Gallo and Kornet?? Puke. Pardon my nausea. Do. Not. Want.
We’ve got kids to develop and we’re supposed to waste a roster spot on the twenty-seven year old, eternal backup Kornet? Phooey. Bring up Bassey, if he can play, or Barlow.
I don’t like Gallo, because he can’t run around to help the kids work out in practice. He’s done for the year with that knee.
With kids to develop we absolutely don’t need a two-for-one player trade, anyway.
Just clearing the ‘28 draft pick isn’t good enough, either.
Gallo would be waived immediately. We have 3 fringe NBA players to consider waiving in KBD, Roby and Johnson for any trade that makes long term sense.
Btw I’m just listing those players as salary matching, not value. Figure we’d get another big back instead of the corpse of Griffin but whatever.
Re picks I want more too, but having BOS’s fully unprotected 28FRP while keeping our own (as opposed to the current swap) may not be a terrible outcome. You could see a world where they are both late lotto type picks. 5 years is a life time.
I am cool with Bost...28 FRP and a second round pick also thrown in 2027
Raptors lose again, six games under. 500. I'm not sure what the cause is, but at this point they should just roll into the lottery and consider blowing it up.
100% I would never trade away picks for Poeltl were I in their front office. Especially not two. Picks are the only way they're digging themselves out of a really bad run. And thats too bad cause the raptors.
Looks like Boston and LA are the only remaining landing spots. And neither of those will do more than 1 FRP plus player(s). I'm guessing Poeltl isn't going anywhere if PATFO is adamant about those 2 FRPs.
Of the decent playoff teams, i think DEN and NOLA would be wise to take a look. I was surprised to see how shockingly thin at C the former is.
At this moment can't see Houston's SRP as anything but 31.
I'd caution against another draft pick for this year. There's only so many 1st and 2nd year guys you can handle without cannibalize development. This is a problem OKC is facing, for example. Pokusevki is hurt. Ousmane Dieng was a guy they coughed up three FRPs for. James Robinson-Earl is pretty good and coming back from a sprain. They'll get Holmgren next summer.
I get the idea of packaging young players to get other talent, but I don't see many of those players drawing a huge amount of interest. They stand to have three FRPs in each of the next two drafts ('24, '25). Fair play to them! But what the do you do? Gotta trade out some of these guys pre-development or package those picks up for a player.
We're not at that point. I can't see us drafting three players this year. We have three rookies this year already.
4 if you count Barlow.
The thing is, if there's ever a moment to do that, this is it. You can't wait until you have a core set and you're trending up to develop multiple players, it's when you suck that you do it. I think we can easily accommodate 2/3 draft picks a year for the next couple of years. Not mandatory of course, if you can't find a player you like at your spot or trade do get one, then pass, sure. But we're just starting the process that OKC is years into, we're not comparable to them right now.
I think the danger comes not with allotting too many young players, but too many "projects", as in guys who are years away and may end up not NBA players at all. Right now I'd say we have 3: Blake Wesley (whose potential is high on either direction, boom or bust), Barlow (interesting traits but a long way from contributing) and Bassey. Branham could also be lumped into this category, but I see him more as needing adjustments (mainly mindset) than polishing, at least on a basic level on offense. I'm confident he'll be productive next season already, the question is to what capacity (if he can carry a significant load of the offense, or he's a good option off the bench -he'll be this at least IMO-).
As opposed to that, you have guys like Sochan, who obviously is far from his potential but he's already proven he belongs and warrants playing time even in a competing team. So basically it's not the Sochans, the Vassells, the Keldons that clog up the pipeline, but the Primos, the Blake Wesleys, the Barlows. We just need to be wary of stacking up too many of the latter type, because you need to invest years in them before you can even make a decision and that comes with a high cost of opportunity, in terms of other interesting players you're passing up because you can't make room for them. This is where OKC went wrong IMO, with the Pokus and Diengs, not the Jalen Williams or Giddeys.
We might want to speed up the rotation, which you can do by avoiding too many of these total projects in favor of guys who you know you can at least count on at some basic level (physically, skill wise, etc.). And if you go for a project, at least make sure they're truly high ceiling and don't come at a high cost (i.e., don't pull a Primo ever again). That way at worst you know in a couple of years where you stand and you can move on faster to another prospect.
Last edited by Ariel; 01-31-2023 at 09:39 AM. Reason: typo
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