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Scoot should be the clear number 2 pick.
Two things:
-For a player who is supposedly going to be a bad shooter in the NBA, he displays a ton of confidence throwing 3’s up. Like, way more than Tre since Tre has been given consistent playing time. Confidence is a major determinant for improving shooting, IMO. We saw it at all season with Sochan & Keldon— kept shooting even though their numbers were horrid, and it ultimately led to improved shooting.
-Scoot must have huge hands to palm the ball as often as he does.
Scoot should be the clear number 2 pick.
Don't really see this team being 18-20 wins better next season to be up there with teams like OKC, NOP, Chicago, and Toronto in the late lottery short of landing Wembanyama.
We could use him at pg if we get the #2 spot. He may be good enough to lure a free agent in another year or two here to San Antonio. On top of that we have cap and draft picks. U fortunately we’re 3-5 years away from being any kind of threat in the west although i coukd see this team be a first round playoff team in the next 2 years
Who ever we pick is not going to be getting major minutes and were not going to ride him like a rookie NFL RB. Who ever we get needs to be built up the correct way it can be very fast or very slow but it will be up to the organization to determine the speed.
As far as how we do well that depends on who we keep and what trades we make and obviously how healthy our starters can stay. I think your correct it seems like OK is finally done with tanking and will start to play serious ball getting a true look at players and figuring what young guys they can trade not for picks but good seasoned Vets. As far as Chicago they kinda screwed I do not see Ball coming back from his surgery I honestly think his career is over so maybe good news for our future Chicago pick will see
Yeah, I think when you start doing cartilage transplants, even if you ever play again, you’ll never be the same. Bulls are done for this cycle.
Bro, you keep saying this as though Wemby is some secret that only Tony and Diaw know about
It's like saying the Cavs drafted LeBron because someone in the front office was friends with his high school math teacher's cousin.
I'm honestly slightly concerned that the Bulls pick enters into the risky territory of never conveying. We may be standing on the precipice of a complete multi-year rebuild in Chicago.
With protections of 10/8/8, it would be tough to not convey it. They would have to burn an NBA team in a major market down to the ground and keep it there for years. In addition, they would probably scrub the front office, and the new group wouldn’t have the credibility to keep them down that long.
Idk how to feel about Scoot, but seeing how Tre is the weakest link in the starting lineup, I think I’d be fine with him if we got him. Now if we were anywhere between 3-7, I’ll have to trust PATFO unless they do another Primo.
Agreed. They'd have to take a very aggressive, Houston/Detroit like approach to tanking for it not to convey.
For reference, here are some possible scenarios:
Chicago's record (from the bottom) in each of the 3 years of the pick's window vs Chances of conveying given 10-8-8 protection
7-7-7: 26%
8-8-8: 63%
9-9-9: 96%
Now with more realistic scenarios (aggressive tanking at first, then taking the foot off the pedal):
1-5-9: 80%
So IMO the pick has very good chances of conveying given its window and protections.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ng-elimination
Article on the Bulls look towards the future. Some excerpts:
"That's been thrown around all this season," Karnisovas said. "Blow up, rebuild. It's not on our minds."We changed our minds in the 2021 season to focus on winning, and try to build a sustainable program here -- I think that's where we're focused right now. How we can help this group and how we can improve from this year."
While Karnisovas emphasized that a .500 team was "not good enough" and that he would explore all options to improve the team during the offseason, he also expressed interest in bringing back his entire roster.
In all likelihood, their owed Pick to ORL will convey this year. I'm not sure if that is necessarily good or bad for us. They may bring Vuch and Coby White back this offseason, but going into 2025 Demar will be a FA, Patrick Williams Rookie deal will be up, and Lonzo Ball will likely exercise a $21MM player option. If they only float around play-in territory next season, I could see them decide to totally blow it up by trying to trade Lavine. In that case, I don't think they'll want to go the route of 7-7-7 or 8-8-8, but rather aim for something like 1-5-9, though we have plenty of recent examples of teams going into 3-year stretches with consecutive top 8 picks.
This does bode well for that pick conveying in an attractive range, but I don't think we should just automatically assume it will convey. There is some danger around it.
I don’t think anyone is automatically assuming it will convey. That’s not what the work ‘likely’ means. It’s a probabilistic term.
I'm not assuming it would, I'm trying to put in context the implications of those protections. To put it on simpler terms: if they finish 2 spots behind the protection on any given year of the window to convey, the pick has about 90% chance of conveying if not more.
One thing to note is that, with protected picks, risk and reward go hand in hand. Best case scenario is the pick ends up just outside the protection, but that means it also comes with the risk it falls inside and many teams will force the issue if it's too close (case in point, Dallas with the pick owed to NY) so you might not want to play with fire.
IMO the Bulls aren't in blow it up territory just yet, but not far off. Best case scenario they improve a bit next year, enough to give them hope and keep it going one more season. This is why I wanted them to make the playoffs now. But if they are going to blow it up, it's in our interest they do so as soon as possible, since I don't believe they'll go for a prolonged tank and that should give us at least a good chance in the last 2 years of the pick's window to convey. If they start tanking in early '25 then yes, that's the worst case scenario and we're likely f*cked since they could definitely suck for 2 more years.
To illustrate this point, again, Bulls position vs probability of conveying
6-6-9: 80.5%
9-6-6: 10.39%
the same positions, but reversing 1st and 3rd year, yield completely opposite results (very like it conveys to very likely it doesn't). If they're going to hit rock bottom, it needs to be ASAP
Last edited by Ariel; 04-16-2023 at 01:03 PM.
I think there’s a real possibility the retirement exception gets used on Ball, outside of that that Bulls pick to me should be shipped this summer and if they by some miracle, which I don’t think is happening, land VW, then you package it and get semi aggressive, if Wemby is as generational as they say he is.
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