Official 2022-2023 Tragic Number Thread

[Dex]

2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?

For the bottom 3 records, percentages at the top 4 picks are the same. But as you go lower, there are higher odds of falling out of the top 4.

For example, the worst record can only fall to #5.

The third worst record can fall all the way to #7.

See more here: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

[spurs10]

For the bottom 3 records, percentages at the top 4 picks are the same. But as you go lower, there are higher odds of falling out of the top 4.

For example, the worst record can only fall to #5.

The third worst record can fall all the way to #7.

See more here: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Aaah thanks for this info...go Houston show so pride and win out!

[baseline bum]

2 spot is 14% and 3 spot is the same. Why would it matter? Meaning are there any advantages?

Numbers 1-3 for worst record have the exact same odds at each of the picks #1-4. So assume you miss out on the top 4 picks:

If you're the second worst record your odds are
Pick #5 - 58%
Pick #6 - 42%

If you're the third worst record your odds are
Pick #5 - 31%
Pick #6 - 54.3%
Pick #7 - 14.7%

You have a 47.86% chance of not picking top 4 in either scenario. Your average pick if you miss out on the top 4 is:

5.42 if you're the second worst record
5.84 if you're the third worst record

So worst case is one pick worse if you're the third worst instead of the second worst, and better odds at pick #5 if you're second worst vs third.

[CGD]

Thanks— didn’t appreciate the odds on the back end. At any rate, I’m less concerned about the difference between 5 and 7th picks in this draft based on what we know now, as opposed to say last year when it seems the cut off started after that matherin pick

[spurraider21]

charlotte with a monster 4th quarter. stormed back ahead of OKC and now has a 5 point lead in the 4th

[MultiTroll]

Hornets pulling ahead in 4th / OKC appears to be laying down.

[spurraider21]

charlotte has scored 30 points in the first 6 minutes of the 4th quarter

[offset formation]

I don't love the slim possibility of being able to drop all the way to pick 7...but if you had told us we would finish in the bottom 3 at the beginning of the season, I think most of us would be happy with that.

yup. probably would have raged at a 4th place finish even though it's only 1.5% lower odds, but nonetheless happy PATFO gave us the best odds possible. the NBA draft lottery system as currently constructed though.

[offset formation]

Charlotte gonna get rewarded with that pick and help lift Jordan's ownership share value as he sells them. Book it.

[Seventyniner]

I wonder if Pop will actually play everyone once the Spurs clinch a bottom 3 record, let them have some fun out there and get a taste of actually competing.

[Mr. Body]

League refs badly want OKC to get this one.

[spurraider21]

Tragic number down to 1
DPG21920 get in here

[Mr. Body]

Awful loss by the Thunder. They push into a tie with Dallas. One of them won't make the play-in. Utah is right there, too.

[Mr. Body]

The Hornets are like a wrecking ball to these fringe Western Conference playoff teams.

[Dex]

Thanks to Charlotte The Destroyer, the Spurs are now just one Tragic Number away from clinching the bottom 3:

[MultiTroll]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

[TXstbobcat]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

magic number is 1 to clinch a bottom 3 record. Just need one more spurs loss or one more hornets win.

[spurs10]

1

[DPG21920]

Tragic number down to 1
DPG21920 get in here

LaMelo must be a zero impact player because Im shocked at how CHA is winning - but this is working out perfect. It’s a lock SA is bottom 3. If SA loses 2 out of 3 v: UTA, POR and DAL I think theres a good shot HOU at least ties SA and we get the coin flip scenario.

[spurraider21]

LaMelo must be a zero impact player because Im shocked at how CHA is winning - but this is working out perfect. It’s a lock SA is bottom 3. If SA loses 2 out of 3 v: UTA, POR and DAL I think theres a good shot HOU at least ties SA and we get the coin flip scenario.

the've been winning with rozier out too

gives me optimism that their pick will convey at some point

[DPG21920]

the've been winning with rozier out too

gives me optimism that their pick will convey at some point

I mean, obviously I was dead wrong about CHA without LaMelo. So let’s make that clear. But even as someone that sees LaMelos talent in many areas but has been asking the questions on his impact, Im astonished they are winning like this and beating solid teams

Let’s hope they can make a low end playoff run next season and like you said we get that pick to convey

[Mr. Body]

I think only injuries will prevent CHA from making the playoffs next year.

[exstatic]

I think only injuries will prevent CHA from making the playoffs next year.

They've got the right coach for it. Before this year, Steve Clifford had coached two of the saddest franchises of the last 25 years, Orlando and Charlotte, for a total of 8 seasons. He took them to the playoffs 4 times out of 8.

[cjw]

No tie breakers like that for picks, it's a coin flip I think. Those kind of head to head / division / conference won-loss tie breakers are only for playoff seeding.

It’s a coinflip tiebreaker for pick (in this case, only matters if neither team is in top 4 post-lottery). Given balls are same among the worst three it doesn’t come into play, but if teams outside of worst three are tied their lottery balls get split evenly. And imagine if 3rd and 4th worst are tied, they split their balls.

[cjw]

Magic # is 1 game as in Spurs will get the #3 pick?
or
Magic # is 2 games as right now 1 Spurs win / Cha loss would still leave Charlotte a chance to tie thus a coinflip?

Double post, but it wouldn’t be a coin flip that comes into play unless they’re outside the top 4 after lottery (they’d still flip, but might not be relevant). They would just split up balls between the two teams if somehow CHA loses out and Spurs win out.