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Comparisons:
- Bryn Forbes
According to Rookie Wire, Spurs have conducted a pre-draft workout with Baylor senior Adam Flagler.
His NBA comparison, Bryn Forbes.
https://nbadraftroom.com/adam-flagler/
Confirmed:
- Adam Flager - Sr. - Baylor
- Charles Bediako - Soph. - Alabama
- Naeqwan Tomlin - Sr. - Kansas State
- David Okwera - International - Australia NBL
Last edited by PhantomDashCam; 05-14-2023 at 06:29 PM.
Comparisons:
- Bryn Forbes
Wright with some next lvl trolling, tbh.
Getting a player of Forbes's caliber with the #44 pick would not be bad at all. Most mid-seconds don't even stick in the league.
Forbes isn't a bad player to have, one that can hit from deep especially if other players can initiate the offense. It's just playing that type too much can be an issue.
I don't see Flagler on many draft boards at all, or really any. Doesn't mean anything. They could be looking at their TOR SRP, they could be looking at undrafted guys, they could be looking at G-League guys.
We already have enough low ceiling prospects, with our second rounders my first option would be consolidating them (plus maybe an extra future second) into a mid first and getting a higher upside prospect like Whitehead, Coulibaly, Rupert, etc. There's always a team willing to trade out or down because they don't want to commit to the guaranteed money of a rookie scale contract, and can grab their guy in the second round. If not, a guy like Strawther would make sense. Anyway, should see plenty of guys (some decoys) come and go until draft night, I wouldn't read too much into that.
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Spurs already have Graham. If Spurs use the Raptor pick at 44, I think Flagler stays at Austin for a couple of years. He does seem to move better than Forbes
You won't get a mid FPR with SRPs. Nobody will pass on Bilal, Whitehead or Rupert for SRPs.
I meant mid 20s, like I said in other posts. And at least 2 of those guys will go in the 20s. We'll talk come draft night.
The Raptors traded #20 to the Spurs for #32 and Thad Young last season. You never know.
To be fair, at the time of the trade the Raptors didn't know it would be the #20 pick, but iirc they were right around the 11th best record (20th pick) territory.
We tend to limit how good SRPs can be. Obviously it's in retrospect, but a guy like Gary Trent was pick #37.
2022
Minnesota jumped to 19 from 22 + 29
2021
Clippers jumped to 21 from 25 + future 2nd
Memphis jumped to 30 from 40 + two future 2nds
2020
Minnesota jumped to 23 from 25 + future 2nd
Memphis landed 30 for two future 2nds
2019
Philly jumped to 20 from 24 + 33
Memphis jumped to 21 from 24 + future 2nd
Cleveland acquired 30 for 4 future 2nds
Point being, second rounders are used all the time to jump a few spots, you can see that usually it's 3/4/5 spots, depending on where those spots are (the higher, the more expensive). So I think jumping to, say, 25 for 32 + 44 + future 2nd is actually pretty fair value. Of course, it depends on the cir stances, but it's not unusual for a team to not want to commit to a first round rookie scale contract if they can get their guy in the early 2nd, or trade away altogether. In any case, it's far from a given, but deals like that happen all the time.
Herb Jones, Jalen Brunson, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mitch3ll Robinson, Andrew Nembhard, Ayo Dosunmu, Tre Jones, Nic Claxton, Terance Mann, De'Anthony Melton, Dillon Brooks, etc. There is value especially in the early 2nd, but it's usually guys with some perceived flaw (unathletic, older, some limitation in their game, etc). Since we have way more 2nds than we can use, I'd rather consolidate them into the first round to aim for a higher upside prospect, which usually don't fall that far.
I understand that 2nd rounders are used as a sweetener to jump a few spots up, but if I'm going to trade 3 seconds, I'd rather try to get a 2nd or 3rd year player rather than a rookie. At least you know more or less what they can do as opposed to a rookie that will probably spend a good chunk of time in the G-League that year if not longer.
If you get a 2nd or 3rd year player that has proven something you're likely not going to get a very good one at that price tag. These days rotation vets go for 3-5 2nd rounders. At this point in time the Spurs need to add talent, and at those picks that's more likely to happen by taking some risks. But I'm all for getting value whatever way you can, if there's a 2nd or 3rd year player that's interesting and can be had at that price, sure, why not. Just don't think it's very likely.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-08-2023 at 12:37 PM.
Good stuff. Those prices seem to be all over the place. Doesn't seem to be a set 'cost' for moving up.
I’m guessing the front office will start going for higher upside players in the second round with so many second round picks in their wallet. We’ll see.
I'd place the paperwork from the Flagler workout in the WGAF file.
Sure, with a FRP + SRPs, but I was responding to your post suggesting you can trade up in the mid FR (or even mid 20 as you corrected) just out of SRPs...
Those in red are NOT first + second rounders, just second rounders into the first round. And in any case, I don't see what's conceptually the big difference between jumping from 32 in the second round or 30 in the first, it's still jumping up a given number of spots which is essentially the same concept (like the Spurs did in the trade that landed us Malaki, going from 33 to 20 for the rotting corpse of Thaddeus Young). 32 to 25 is 8 spots, which is basically pretty fair given the examples above. I just went back 4 years, but if you go farther you'll find plenty more.Sure, with a FRP + SRPs, but I was responding to your post suggesting you can trade up in the mid FR (or even mid 20 as you corrected) just out of SRPs...
And in the 3 cases, that's for the 30 pick, so no offense but not mid 20, which was your all starting point (mid FR actually)... 30 is litterally the first pick before the SR. And no offense again but spurs jumped from 32 to 20 precisely thanks to Young, 2RPs would't have done it alone. I'm not sure what 32 to 25 is referring to in your last sentence but you won't find examples of teams trading up even to mid 20s just with 2RPs, which is my whole point. You always have to add a first or a player, 2RPs are just sweeteners in that kind of deals. The substance is somewhere else.
You're reading it completely wrong.
In 2021 the Clippers used a future 2nd to jump from 25 to 21, that's 4 spots for a 2nd rounder
In 2021 Memphis used 2 future 2nds to jump from 40 to 30, that is 10 spots for 2 2nd rounders
In 2020 Minnesota used a future 2nd to jump from 25 to 23, that's 2 spots for a future 2nd rounder
In 2020 Memphis used 2 seconds to jump from undrafted (60+) to 30, that's 30 spots for two future 2nds
In 2019 Philly used 33 to jump from 24 to 20, that's 4 spots for a 2nd rounder
In 2019 Memphis used a future 2nd to jump from 24 to 21, that's 3 spots for a future 2nd rounder
In 2019 Cleveland used 4 future 2nds to jump from undrafted (60+) to 30, that's 30 spots for 4 future 2nds
So you see what I'm saying isn't some convoluted hypothetical, it's common practice to use 2nd rounders as currency to climb up a number of spots in the first round.
Also, it should be noted that the difference in value between each consecutive pair of picks is BIGGER as you climb up the board. Meaning there's much more difference in value from 1 to 5, than there is from 10 to 14, than there is from 20 to 24, than there is from 30 to 34. In a nuts it means that if a 2nd rounder buys you 4 spots at 25, it will buy you AT LEAST 4 AND POSSIBLY MORE at 33, NOT LESS.
I mean, this isn't rocket science: start at 33. First 2nd rounder (44) gets you 4 spots, you're at 29. Next 2nd rounder (future) gets you 4 extra spots, you're at 25. It's an oversimplification (not always it's the same leap, sometimes it's more, sometimes less, sometimes nothing at all), it may cost 3 picks rather than 2 but the concept stands, and pretending it's any different when you start at 30 than it is when you start at 33 is completely disingenuous.
So again, going by recent value, if you're using 2 picks to jump 8 spots starting at 33, that's pretty much exactly what ALL the recent empirical evidence supports. It's not me coming up with some made up number, it's what actually has happened recently. If you want to come up with a counter example based on as much recent evidence as I laid out that refutes what I said, I'm all ears. In the meantime, I'm going to continue to go by recent history rather than any opinion.
Last edited by Ariel; 05-08-2023 at 08:31 PM.
Only the 2020 Memphis trade, for #30, included no first rounder. You’re proposing two SRPs, a 30ish pick and a 40ish pick for a mid20s pick, and you have no example of anyone doing anything within 5-6 picks of that.
No. I'm proposing TWO second round picks to JUMP from 33 to 25, that's ON TOP of 33 otherwise it wouldn't be THE JUMP you're buying. That's THREE 2nd round picks, 33 + 44 + future 2nd, for 25
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