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How much higher do you all think this year's 33 and 44 could get us?
I know a lot of this is banging around in other threads, but I thought some people might like hashing out from our amateur perspective what it might take to get a second first round pick. Less who we would like to get, rather what certain spots might require.
Spurs' Assets to Move
- Our draft picks this year 33, 44
- Future draft picks, including TOR and CHA next year, CHI in 2025, ATL picks, and our own picks
- Cap space
- Current players, such as Zach Collins or Keldon Johnson
Considerations of Teams at Target Spots
- Needs of teams at those spots. For example: Washington (8) and Utah (9) both badly need point guards
- Compe ion for those spots. There may be a lot of movement among high lottery pick owners, with other teams wanting to join them (for example: OKC). More suitors means greater expense
- Desire of trading-down teams to gain 2024 assets regardless. For example, Dallas (10) won't want to trade out of the round entirely; they want something out of this draft
- Trading down with the 33 is contextual: it's less of a leap to get a Brooklyn pick (21) with the 33 than it is to get to the Dallas pick (10)
Thoughts
In my inexpert opinion, we have different bands, or ranges, we could possibly get into with trades.
Top 2-6. There are fans of going hard for Scoot or Miller. The Detroit pick (5) might be for sale, which could net a different player. IMO, all of these will be prohibitively expensive, requiring Keldon Johnson and multiple firsts. Even then, I don't think the Spurs can beat what other teams will offer.
Top 7-11. This is where you're targeting Anthony Black, Cason Wallace, Gradey , Taylor Hendricks, etc. Two teams, Washington (8) and Utah (9) badly need point guards already. Dallas is said to be interested in moving (10), as is Orlando (11)
Late Lottery into the Teens. Here you may find players like Kobe Bufkin and Jordan Hawkins. Contending with an aggressive OKC, teams that need help like Toronto and LAL, difficult trade partners like Utah
Picks 20-30. Here you can possibly get Brandin Podziemski and others. This seems like it would be more wide open, but these picks are owned by teams like Sacramento and Memphis, who need pieces, and teams with multiple picks like Utah and Indiana.
tl/dr, or, My Thoughts
- The Spurs have to manufacture a pick out of whole cloth to be attractive to teams who need something out of this draft
- I don't think the Spurs intend to trade Keldon at this time, or anybody major. No one else has value
- To me, the Top 9 is pretty much impossible to get to
- Using the 33 to get into the 20-30 range is a possibility, probably using the CHA or TOR pick next year (is this worth it?)
- Toronto, Golden State, Brooklyn, do not have picks next year.
- Would it be possible to get one of those for a first next year, then... move further up? Is it worth trading two future draft picks (and the 33) to get a player this year?
To me, getting another FRP in this draft is very expensive. I don't think the Spurs' trove is that deep to be frivolous. Given the narrow team needs, I'm not sure splurging makes sense. Also given the team's conservative use of assets, it seems more likely they keep their three FRPs next year and see what happens then.
For a while, I thought getting a second FRP2024 made sense. Now, due to a mix of teams involved, their placement and needs, I don't see a beneficial way of being aggressive, although I can see one of those non-2024 teams maybe swapping the 19, 21, or 22 for our 33 and a first from next year. I just don't see any of our guys actually at those spots.
Your thoughts?
How much higher do you all think this year's 33 and 44 could get us?
This. No need to get crazy. If someone the Spurs covet happens to drop then I think you do what you have to do, but don't move up unless they spot the next Kawhi dropping out of the lottery. Winning the Wemby sweepstakes gives the Spurs tons of options now, though, making some of that trade capital available to work in their favor so they can be selective not feel any need to swing for the fences. And the entire roster is expendable in a draft trade, IMO, as the key will now be to put the best pieces around the future of the franchise.
I think maybe Golden State at 19, if you plus the Toronto or Charlotte pick next year.
Brooklyn at 21 or 22, for the same.
Maybe Memphis at 25, maaaaybe using a load of other SRPs? Sacramento is at 24 and maaaaybe might have similar interest?
Basically everyone else in the 20s is Portland, Utah, Charlotte, Indiana, and I don't think they're in the market.
Im much more bullish on free agency and trading keldon for a young player of equal value or key vet. Our pick surplus isnt really a problem this year. But all teams will swap players since spurs (murray aside )?generally are good value (even kawhi steal of the decade featured a career journeyman starter in their early prime.
When have the Spurs moved up in a draft via trades?
I don't see the can't miss prospect in lotto/late lotto they would break bank for.
Wemby's on the team. Pop will take it slow. Who knows what Wright has up his sleeves though. He very well may have earned himself a longer leash with the way he was operating during the last couple of seasons.
Who'd be the main target of a move up? We think Black, Spurs could have other ideas.
A few thoughts:
I don't worry to much about what competing offers are for any spot I'd want to move to. I kind of look at it as I do when I'm buying real estate. I don't get emotionally attached and evaluate what its worth to me. I obviously don't offer full value at first, but I know how far I'm willing to go when I do make my move. If someone wants to pay more then that's their prerogative. It doesn't bother me because I'm confident in my evaluation and not emotionally attached.
I like the different tiers you've got there. On the 2-6 Tier I'd only go there if it were for Scoot and I don't think what I'd be willing to pay as much as some others. My best offer for him would be something like Keldon, Toronto pick, Charlotte, our 24 1st protected top 8, and Chicago + 2nd's and salary filler(if they coveted Doug/ Graham or cap space. That won't get it done, but that's all I'd do.
7-11- our Top 7-10 protected 24 pick (depending on if we're targeting 7 or 11), Toronto pick, Cha or Chicago pick, or 2nd's and cap space.
Late lottery thru teens- Probably Toronto and Cha or CHI pick, both 2nd's and cap space.
20-30- Cha or CHI pick + our 2nd's
I'm also very comfortable not making a move at all.
Great insight.
So for 7-11, you have Keldon off the table? I would have him on, but without anything except MAYBE the Charlotte pick.
I think my approach would be to see how high Keldon plus the CHA and CHI picks can take me and see if I want anyone there. I'd also see how much CHA, CHI and a heavily protected Spurs first would go. Obviously how badly they want any player would determine their willingness to offer either combo. But I do think walking out with two 23 firsts, two 2024 first and two 2025 firsts is a very desirable outcome. We've kicked around a number of hypothetical trades here, and I think the Spurs are in a good position to do many of them. We'll see if there are legit rumors the team is even trying to make a move and not just "reports" that seem like SpursTalk-born spit-balling.
I think you are massively overpaying
The most realistic scenario looks like moving up a few spots to the late first round.
At that range in the draft, the Spurs probably have targeted someone who is as likely to be available at 33 (knowing the Spurs unorthodox draft rankings).
I doubt they'll panic and "overpay" to get someone they may be able to get anyway in a more favorable configuration as a 2d round pick .
I agree with Chinook that coming out of this draft with 2 FRPs in 23, 24 and 25 is the most beneficial outcome. Having 6 picks in 2 years with all the current youth seems like an unmanageable situation. As far as Keldon I see him as the odd man out long-term. I just think the optics of trading your "face-of-the-franchise" 2 years in a row is something the Spurs will have a hard time coming to grips with. This obviously has to be weighed against long term roster construction and maximizing KJ's value. Do you think he is at max value now or do you think he increases his value when he is not the focus of the defense and likely is able increase his efficiency? To me this is the biggest question the Spurs have right now.
That's reasonable.. . I think the key point there is 'how highly the team rates a particular player in that 7-11 tier'. If their guy is there they may have a richer offer than I would... I like Keldon, but he's definitely not someone you clinch your fist and refuse to include if you see someone who you believe is a better long-term fit next to Wembanyama.
It's not an opening offer...and if you're correct they'd be paying less... in that scenario it becomes a no-brainer.
Two things here:
I'm not sure Keldon is on the market. Of course things change if he is. (And my belief was that the team was entering the off-season with him on the move, before Wemby.) I don't know what interest he has in this draft, though I do feel eventually the team needs to decide between him and Sochan. I just feel his value for the team this year is very high.
The highlighted above. I don't see how the Spurs can outright buy a nice pick with future draft capital. I've identified teams I think would trade out of the first round, but their placement isn't good. I could see a Utah (16) selling an extra pick for future picks (not necessarily what you list here). That is, if they can't themselves move up.
That said, I'm sure the team will determine its thresholds and probe each tranch of the first round. How much would they pay to get player 1 in the top 10? How much for a player 2 in the late lottery?
Would I get Kobe Bufkin for the CHA and CHI picks? Would I, if I had to include the 33?
Good thread, Mr. Body
I agree that I don't think a Keldon trade happens, for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons is I don't think his value is as high as Spurs fans apparently think it is. He'd be a classic case of "if the Spurs are looking to trade him, something most be wrong" that has ironically hurt the Spurs in a variety of trade negotiations.
Perhaps ... but it'd take even more to actually move up.
This is very true. I'd also add we don't even know if the Spurs have ANY real interest in moving up. That's sort of what I meant by my last sentence suggesting we'd have to wait and see if we get some better rumors or reports about what the Spurs intend to do.
It depends on the pick in my mind. I do think that trio could get 11 if Orlando is wary about making another rookie to go with their young guys. I think 10 from Dallas is very gettable as a combo of a couple of those picks and trading Graham for THJ. Both of those teams are likely to be active in the trade market and should appreciate future picks to play with. After the lottery, I'd drop the Spurs first for 33, and I think there would be takers. I would not be too inclined to just toss in the Chicago pick starting at around 18. I don't want the team to draft 1, 18 AND 33 and 44. I do think 33 and the CHA pick would be an appealing combo to a number of teams up there, and whether Kobe or any other desired player is still on the board would have to be determined at the time.The highlighted above. I don't see how the Spurs can outright buy a nice pick with future draft capital. I've identified teams I think would trade out of the first round, but their placement isn't good. I could see a Utah (16) selling an extra pick for future picks (not necessarily what you list here). That is, if they can't themselves move up.
I do think that if Johnson were moved at any other time but the draft, that stink would be strong. The Spurs moving up to get a second high first I think would be a logical enough motivation to prevent other teams for worrying about what it means. Johnson is one of the older "young players". Trading him out for a lotto pick just seems like good business. Now teams should reconsider if there is something they don't know about whomever the Spurs ask them to draft, but it should be noted that Indy got a good deal for the 15th pick when they traded for Hill. Kawhi being a HoFer doesn't change the fact that a long-term starting guard in line with the rest of the team's core wasn't a bad use of a non-lotto first.Good thread, Mr. Body
I agree that I don't think a Keldon trade happens, for a variety of reasons. One of the reasons is I don't think his value is as high as Spurs fans apparently think it is. He'd be a classic case of "if the Spurs are looking to trade him, something most be wrong" that has ironically hurt the Spurs in a variety of trade negotiations.
No idea on his trade value in terms of its upper limit. But I do think that he would be an intriguing option for teams looking for decent players who aren't overpaid. He can be your third or fourth option, and he's being paid to be that now and will only be a better deal as time goes on. RGMers are decent fans of his, though who knows how they track with actual GMs.
I’m exhausted by the “move Keldon” talk. Moving him for anything outside the top 4 or a clear and definitive player upgrade is Spurstalk idiocy at its finest. Especially with all the draft capital we have.
We absolutely need production over project/promise for Wembys first season. Expecting him or Vassell or committee to carry the offense load is a bad idea.
Moving him for a late lottery pick is rolling the dice that you’d luck out and get another Keldon that we already have smh
I also don't believe Keldon is on the market. Keldon is a nice player and it's not because his ceiling ain't superstar that he hasn't a place in SA. Spurs like him and and you know what you got with him. You don't with prospects who haven't played one minute in the NBA.
A note on San Antonio's draft capital:
I don't think the treasure trove is as tradeable as we think. And not because it's not valuable.
- The Atlanta picks are unprotected in 2025 and 2027
- The Charlotte pick is protected 1-14, and 1-14, the next two years.
- The Toronto pick is protected 1-6, 1-6, and 1-6, the next three years.
- The Chicago pick is protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026, 1-8 in 2027
- Our own picks
The Atlanta picks are probably unmoveable. They could be high lottery picks.
The Charlotte pick probably has some interest, but are resolutely non-lottery picks. It may not convey, but looks like it probably will. The Toronto pick would be more attractive, but if they crater, it could be pretty nice. They could just as likely be late lottery or a playoff team again. The Chicago pick looks fairly tasty, tbh, unless they outright tank. (The timing may not be great.)
As a rule, teams value current-year draft picks far, far higher than anything in the future, and deep future less than near future. This is because GMs want to make splashes, owners and fans want progress.
The Spurs own picks...
Looking back, we've rarely traded our first round picks. In the last 20plus years, we traded first round picks (our own, and Phoenix, generated by the Barbosa trade) to the Knicks for Nazr Mohammed. The Knicks picked David Lee and Marty Collins. I would say overall a win, as David Lee's best years were after New York and Nazr was a good center for us.
In 2000, Chicago picked Dalibor Bagaric with our FRP, whoever the that is (can't immediately find what we got). In 1999, the Spurs picked poor Leon Smith on behalf of Dallas. In 2009, we traded Francisco Elson, Brent Barry, and our FRP for Kurt Thomas. The pick became Rodrigue Beaubois. In 2012 the Spurs traded Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, and this FRP for Stephen Jackson. The pick became Festus Ezeli. Since that year, the Spurs used every one of their first round draft picks, to a high degree of success.
The Spurs' picks going forward are big question marks. If Wembanyama pans out and the team contends, they will be in the 20s. If things go wrong, we won't want to have traded any of them. Also, if there are protections, this freezes the ability to trade picks in adjacent years (if we do realize we're contending).
It gets harder to add talent through the draft the better a team becomes. You can see this as the franchise kept trying to flip late FRPs with players to stay in contention. I could see SAS trading one of their own picks, but it feels unlikely.
In any case... We have a really nice bunch of picks. However, to me, the only really tradeable first round picks we have right now are the Charlotte, Toronto, and Chicago picks.
Above all, Keldon is an incredible locker room guy at a time when the team is integrating the highest profile player in some time. When not shouldering a humongous load, he hits threes at a really nice rate. He can cut and punish teams for doubling on the big guy. These are good things to have around Wembanyama.
At the moment I feel like not making any changes and going into the next season with basically the same roster, maybe we pick up someone at number 33 that sticks, ideally a veteran college player who looks to be reliable, and then just take it easy with VW’s health and if we’re in the lottery again, then so be it. And then after the first year start making more aggressive moves.
Thanks for posting this. Shockingly none of those traded picks amounted to anything. Which is precisely why you don’t dump a productive player in Keldon for a gamble.
The time to look at a Keldon trade would be next offseason if another player on this roster emerges as a legitimate starter. If Branham averages 17ppg with good efficiency. I could see a guy like Keldon becoming expendable for an additional proven upgrade or better fitting player.
Right now today with Tre, Jeremy, Vassell and Keldon I think we have a nice landing spot for Wemby. He’s not gonna be forced to carry the load and our core has already shown a respectable amount of chemistry on the floor and in the locker.
We have the luxury of being able to exercise some patience.
I wouldn’t trade the TOR pick this summer. I’d wait to see the direction they pick. They went from a 6 seed to a play in loser with a virtually identical roster. There’s some thought that this version of the Raps has gone as far as it can. They are in a financial crunch, too, but even if they bring everyone back, they might still be a repeat lottery team.
The picks that I wouldn't trade unless the return just blew you away are the Toronto pick, the Atlanta picks, the Spurs' 2025 and 2028 picks which have the Atlanta and Boston swaps attached. I think the order of least value FRPs is 2030 SAS, 2029 SAS, 2027 SAS, 2026 SAS, 2024 Charlotte, 2024 SAS, 2025 Chicago, 2024 Toronto. Unless Wemby busts for whatever reason I would totally expect the Spurs own picks from 2026 on to be in the 20s and hopefully near 30 by the end of the decade.
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