Reassessing the Roster After the Spurs Win the Victor Wembanyama Lottery

[buttsR4rebounding]

Aren't we giving up on Blake Wesley too soon?

It's like knowing the cake takes 20-30 mins to bake and looking in the oven at 10 mins in but blaming the cake for still being mostly batter.

Was a #25 overall ever supposed to show you everything in year one? What if they kinda were until having a serious injury grade 3 MCL tear and missing several weeks. Blake only played 37 games last year due to injury. Missed an entire half the season.

Don't sleep on Wes yet imo tbh.

Actually, the best ball he played during the season was the 2 or 3 games right before he got hurt. His progress would have have been significantly better without the injury. The Spurs will undoubtedly win more games this year, but are still far from a contender. Playing Wesley 10-15 minutes a night isn't going to be a deal breaker. Assuming Wesley has worked his ass off this summer I will be very interested to see what he looks like in summer league and training camp to see if he's earned those 10 minutes a night.

[wildbill2u]

Johnson's basic flaw is his lack of BB IQ. It shows up in both the defensive and offensive sides to his game.

Offense: He is still subject at times to making mindless bull rushes into the lane where he lowers his head and decides to go one on one without any sense of what his teammates are doing. Granted this has improved somewhat since his rookie year, but after four seasons, some as a starter? Puhleeze. I don't think he was ever a natural shooter coming into the league but worked on his shooting with pretty good improvement. But, as was shown last season, this aspect of his game is not written in stone. He didn't improve further, but actually seemed to regress a little in his percentages. Natural shooters don't let extra attention from defenses or "carrying the load" affect them that much. His shot selection isn't what we woulld like to see. Not a good or natural assist maker because he doesn't have the court vision.

Defense: IF it takes the addition of a generational talent like Wemby to give him the opportunity to become an AVERAGE defender in the league, you must agree that there is a problem here. Partially it might be that his physical speed and athleticism isn't up to par against the compe ion he faces night after night. OK. So if he gets beat, we hope that someone else will do his job much of the time. But if you combine that speed and athleticism problem with low BB IQ (which I believe is where he's stuck) then you can see the problem. After all, we've seen plenty of players with some lack of speed or athleticism make up for it by using superior BB IQ. They learn the nuances of the game and study the films to learn the quirks and moves of their opponents. Sometimes a player can make a subtle adjustment in his alignment to protect against a player who can't go left. Other times you give a player who can't hit the three some extra room. Knowing when to rotate on defense to help out. Positioning for rebounds. The nuances are endless and players should be able to make those fine tuning adjustments after 4 years in the league. I don't see that happening with KJ. He is what he is. Ceiling. Full stop.

He's already at the point where other players already are at his heels in terms of their potential to take away his starting job as the lineups are adjusted because of the addition of Wemby. If I were a coach, I would never trust the idea of removing a starter to a lesser role on the bench. Few players can accept that demotion psychologically and thrive. This is a hard business. We let Derrick White go because he no longer fit our needs. Time to do the same for KJ.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Johnson's basic flaw is his lack of BB IQ. It shows up in both the defensive and offensive sides to his game.

Offense: He is still subject at times to making mindless bull rushes into the lane where he lowers his head and decides to go one on one without any sense of what his teammates are doing. Granted this has improved somewhat since his rookie year, but after four seasons, some as a starter? Puhleeze. I don't think he was ever a natural shooter coming into the league but worked on his shooting with pretty good improvement. But, as was shown last season, this aspect of his game is not written in stone. He didn't improve further, but actually seemed to regress a little in his percentages. Natural shooters don't let extra attention from defenses or "carrying the load" affect them that much. His shot selection isn't what we woulld like to see. Not a good or natural assist maker because he doesn't have the court vision.

Defense: IF it takes the addition of a generational talent like Wemby to give him the opportunity to become an AVERAGE defender in the league, you must agree that there is a problem here. Partially it might be that his physical speed and athleticism isn't up to par against the compe ion he faces night after night. OK. So if he gets beat, we hope that someone else will do his job much of the time. But if you combine that speed and athleticism problem with low BB IQ (which I believe is where he's stuck) then you can see the problem. After all, we've seen plenty of players with some lack of speed or athleticism make up for it by using superior BB IQ. They learn the nuances of the game and study the films to learn the quirks and moves of their opponents. Sometimes a player can make a subtle adjustment in his alignment to protect against a player who can't go left. Other times you give a player who can't hit the three some extra room. Knowing when to rotate on defense to help out. Positioning for rebounds. The nuances are endless and players should be able to make those fine tuning adjustments after 4 years in the league. I don't see that happening with KJ. He is what he is. Ceiling. Full stop.

He's already at the point where other players already are at his heels in terms of their potential to take away his starting job as the lineups are adjusted because of the addition of Wemby. If I were a coach, I would never trust the idea of removing a starter to a lesser role on the bench. Few players can accept that demotion psychologically and thrive. This is a hard business. We let Derrick White go because he no longer fit our needs. Time to do the same for KJ.

Dead on. I think the only thing that stops this from happening is the "good guy" image the Spurs work so hard to cultivate. I believe it comes down to what's best for long term winning in the front office's minds: being considered a player-first organization that goes out of it's way to respect the wishes of players and the hope that this will accrue good will that will benefit the team or basing personnel decisions on purely what puts the best team on the court. I think most of us would prefer the latter; however, I don't think the Spurs are willing to be seen as potentially jerking around a player that signed what's considered a team-friendly deal and trading the face-of-the-franchise 2 years in a row.

[cool cat]

What about using KJ at the James Harden OKC spot and bring him off the bench?

[Spurs Homer]

He sucks! But other teams will want him!

weird logic

depends who you package him with and contracts/$$$/years left etc

[spurraider21]

i'd do what i can to extend zollins now. if he just bets on himself staying healthy and playing out this year along wemby, he'd probably get quite the haul in the market, though.

collins/vassell are talented enough that as long as the contract isn't outrageous (which is much less likely to happen in the context of getting an extension done now), even if we decide they arent fits, they probably wouldnt be that hard to move. still have to remember that players/contracts are assets. you dont just throw your old car away when you buy a new one. you sell it. trade it in, etc.

[rankingtear]

Listened to a pod talking about Wemby, first year the basketball stuff does not matter priority 1 is health 2 is locker room. Make sure the center depth is there and stock your locker room with good influence. Get rid of all LA born players.

[Russ]

Thanks for the article, timvp. You got all the Spurs fans to come to the square.

As for the future, to paraphrase Yogi Berra, it’s not getting late early.

Victor Wembanyama will be the obvious centerpiece but no one knows exactly what a team built around prime-time VW will look like yet.

When Pop first saw Manu Ginobili he knew he had something, but he wasn’t quite sure what. Manu was so unorthodox (and talented). Pop ended up breaking some of his rules coaching Manu that he never thought he would break.

Cut to today -- Victor Wembanyama is the biggest Manu Ginobili that Pop has ever encountered in his coaching life. Very, very unorthodox (and even more talented).

Pop always says you can’t skip steps. Step #1 here is to find out exactly what VW is in the NBA and how to best create a team around him. Pop has to visualize that before anything else happens.

That’s why it’s highly unlikely that the Spurs try to get a big-name veteran FA to throw into the mix right now (or even try to move up in the draft for a big-name draft pick).

That would be skipping steps and trying to force things prematurely.

As far as the draft, the best bet looks like the Spurs will wait for that big-name prospect they like to fall to #33 or, if not, take a shot at a projected 2d round player that they like (probably for upside potential). Like most of us, I have a candidate(s) for the latter scenario.

We’ll know the team has finally arrived when nice (losing) Pop is replaced with impatient, gruff (winning) Pop and someone asks a question about why Wemby did something unbelievable and Pop just glares and replies “Because he’s Victor Wenbanyama.”

[jesterbobman]

I wouldn't give Vassell the max, but anywhere up to the Mikal Bridges 4 yr 100m contract is pretty close to fine. While he wasn't the Iron man than Mikal has been, his role is similar as a 3/D wing with some off the bounce creation.
How much of the drop down / injury rest last year is chronic vs strategic resting / not giving a in a tanking year is a valid question, but it's a reason to discount vs Bridges. And, being a year later / closer to the new TV deal is a valid reason to increase - so about the same seems fair. The Spurs will know how much was rest vs Chronic injury, so if they resign him, they'll believe it's a good idea.

After the presumed current starters, I don't think we should be attached to anyone - It'd be good to have a solid PG option, e.g Tre Jones mainly running the bench units to get young guys in position, with a more egalitarian / multiple initiators ball dominance set up in the starting lineup (e.g, Vassell Keldon Sochan Wemby Zach) and set up as a group of huge mofos who can offer help defence. I wouldn't lock in Tre too long term, as there are already shooting questions on the roster and you have to prioritise shooting with role players if your key guys aren't great. Something like a 2 year 20m deal would be fine, and you can move on if Blake or Malaki look promising.

I'd be keeping Blake and Malaki (locked in as rookies, little trade value), letting KBD go (easy to envision him as a ninth man offering big wing depth to a lot of contenders), with Doug, Devonte and Champagnie as shooting depth, given contracts (Guaranteed, guaranteed, presumably tiny).

That gives us 11. That covers smalls with a bunch of weak/ developing guard options and shooting coming off the books after this year. A big upgrade (Lopez as the dream), or soaking up questionable contracts (Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris etc) makes sense to reach the salary floor for the next couple of years. Mamu is probably the most worthwhile to keep of the other bigs as a floor spacer, but I'm not too attached.
I wouldn't be too attached to Romeo (fine defender, but limited especially as a shooter), Dieng (moving into the Haslem role but could be a coach), Birch (probably not playing), or Dom Barlow (unless on another two way).

Long term, I'd be looking for an advantage creating guard of some point. While Wemby should draw a lot of focus, some other method of breaking down defences as a primary, either alongside Wemby or in his bench minutes feels like the biggest long term team need, other than a ton of shooting. I imagine that's the type of player they're looking for if they move back into the lottery this year (praying that Amen is the answer), or you can look to add that eventually if the cost is too high in this draft.

[BackHome]

Listened to a pod talking about Wemby, first year the basketball stuff does not matter priority 1 is health 2 is locker room. Make sure the center depth is there and stock your locker room with good influence. Get rid of all LA born players.

This + 1000000000000

[RC_Drunkford]

damn 10 missed dunks in a row?

[Big Empty]

This cat over at utility sports has some great takes on the Spurs offseason. https://youtu.be/sPEseaOiIZE

[scott]

Aren't we giving up on Blake Wesley too soon?

It's like knowing the cake takes 20-30 mins to bake and looking in the oven at 10 mins in but blaming the cake for still being mostly batter.

Was a #25 overall ever supposed to show you everything in year one? What if they kinda were until having a serious injury grade 3 MCL tear and missing several weeks. Blake only played 37 games last year due to injury. Missed an entire half the season.

Don't sleep on Wes yet imo tbh.

While I'm in the "Blake Sucks" camp, I agree 100% with this. Still plenty of time for him to prove a dusty ol' hater like me wrong.

[spurraider21]

i get that wemby adds some urgency but im not expecting him to come in and immediately be some all-nba type player that immediately opens some championship window. and even if there was some urgency... i dont think the last roster spot down to the 15th person needs to be some crusty "win now" vet. we should at least wait until devonte graham is out of town before making a call on wesley. if graham has a meh season and its a foregone conclusion that he's going to be waived, then yeah, id want to know if we can reasonably expect wesley to at least be a rotation pg. and if graham has his best season in years to the point where the spurs would want to keep him at 12.5 mil, then theres the luxury of wesley having an additional year to prove himself

[timvp]

Listened to a pod talking about Wemby, first year the basketball stuff does not matter priority 1 is health 2 is locker room. Make sure the center depth is there and stock your locker room with good influence. Get rid of all LA born players.

Yeah prioritizing locker room makes sense. If that is the absolute priority, then the Spurs should bring back Jones, Dieng and Bates-Diop. Jones and Dieng specifically are probably the two most important "locker room guys" on the team -- with maybe Keldon up there with them. Bates-Diop is probably top five too.

It's going to be a difficult balancing act piecing together Wemby's rookie roster.

[timvp]

Thanks for the article, timvp. You got all the Spurs fans to come to the square.

As for the future, to paraphrase Yogi Berra, it’s not getting late early.

Victor Wembanyama will be the obvious centerpiece but no one knows exactly what a team built around prime-time VW will look like yet.

When Pop first saw Manu Ginobili he knew he had something, but he wasn’t quite sure what. Manu was so unorthodox (and talented). Pop ended up breaking some of his rules coaching Manu that he never thought he would break.

Cut to today -- Victor Wembanyama is the biggest Manu Ginobili that Pop has ever encountered in his coaching life. Very, very unorthodox (and even more talented).

Pop always says you can’t skip steps. Step #1 here is to find out exactly what VW is in the NBA and how to best create a team around him. Pop has to visualize that before anything else happens.

That’s why it’s highly unlikely that the Spurs try to get a big-name veteran FA to throw into the mix right now (or even try to move up in the draft for a big-name draft pick).

That would be skipping steps and trying to force things prematurely.

Great post, Russ.

That's basically where I end up when thinking about what should come next. I've watched just about all of Wemby's tape ... and I still don't know what he'll be in the NBA

He's such a unique prospect that I think you have to let him play out his first season before you start making any assumptions on what he is or what he isn't. And that's part of the reason why I'm not unsure about how much to pay Vassell, Jones, Collins, etc. How do you use cap space before understanding what you have in Wemby? I mean, I really like Vassell -- I think he has it in him to be a championship level piece to a puzzle. Collins looked damn good to end the year. Jones could be the best backup point guard in the NBA within a couple years. But until the Spurs understand what Wemby is, everything else has to be in some sort of holding pattern, right?

[BacktoBasics]

The whole idea that we’d dump character guys like Keldon and Vassell for swings at potential superstars is dumb for a few reasons.

1. It’s high risk and low reward. Especially when we have proven production on the roster that provide a nice soft landing for Wemby with high character players and a cohesive locker room.

2. The last thing we want with the new CBA are guys who might read as slightly better based on draft position, moderate production and not proven productivity like a bargain player such as Keldon. We’ll end up in cap .

3. With a high character affordable roster over the next two years we’re better off filling the gaps with a more proven player that will complement the roster than (see number 2) prospect that will end up over paying to keep on the roster.

We need to keep an eye on OKC. They’ve got a handful of guys that will test their cap space and play out a scenario where having a ton of early draft pics that produce at an above average level, yet below superstar, might end up blowing a roster up.

High value contracts like Keldons will be more valuable 2 years from now than they are as trade deals.

[jesterbobman]

Great post, Russ.

That's basically where I end up when thinking about what should come next. I've watched just about all of Wemby's tape ... and I still don't know what he'll be in the NBA

He's such a unique prospect that I think you have to let him play out his first season before you start making any assumptions on what he is or what he isn't. And that's part of the reason why I'm not unsure about how much to pay Vassell, Jones, Collins, etc. How do you use cap space before understanding what you have in Wemby? I mean, I really like Vassell -- I think he has it in him to be a championship level piece to a puzzle. Collins looked damn good to end the year. Jones could be the best backup point guard in the NBA within a couple years. But until the Spurs understand what Wemby is, everything else has to be in some sort of holding pattern, right?

Wemby will be weird, unorthodox, and strange. We don't know the perfect type of pieces to surround him with...Is there any type of player Wemby could become where Vassell doesn't work? Long Giannis / Durant hybrid as a big primary with touch? Anthony Davis with a bit more self creation? Hits the 1% floor and he's like Porzingis?

I get being hesitant on Jones given his shooting, and Collins if it'd take a huge amount to keep him (doubt that happens, I think he's a reasonable back up 5 and a bit overtaxed as a top end starter) but I don't see any type of player that wouldn't work with Vassell as a complementary piece (even if he's not quite a second star on a le team).

[R. DeMurre]

- Fully agree. I think the last game showed you what happens when JBrown is by himself w/no other offensive threat on the other side. JT was on the floor but not active w/his ankle so JBrown should have taken over but it was more of the other supporting cast that tried to pick up the slack (i.e. DWhite). So I'd pass especially because of how many assets you'd have to give up to get him. Not worth it.

- DWhite unfortunately will probably be past the timeline to sign him next year. And I can't see Boston not re-signing him quickly, probably before JBrown.
- AReaves is going to be pricey and not sure he fits in w/the Spurs. Not opposed but I think he overperformed this year. Lakers will overspend for him for sure.
- CMartin, he did well when he got minutes, but has like 2 yrs left after this year I believe. We will see how he plays w/Herro returns.

Right, right-- I didn't mean getting those specific players. I meant looking for those types-- effective but without the gaudy stats of a Jaylen Brown. I should've explained it better. Basically, I'd prefer two effective role players with net positive impact for $35mil combined over JB for $35mil. I do love Quickley though, and would definitely be on board for that as a PG experiment.

[gilmor2002]

damn 10 missed dunks in a row?

the guy he played with is an asshole..

[mo7888]

Great post, Russ.

That's basically where I end up when thinking about what should come next. I've watched just about all of Wemby's tape ... and I still don't know what he'll be in the NBA

He's such a unique prospect that I think you have to let him play out his first season before you start making any assumptions on what he is or what he isn't. And that's part of the reason why I'm not unsure about how much to pay Vassell, Jones, Collins, etc. How do you use cap space before understanding what you have in Wemby? I mean, I really like Vassell -- I think he has it in him to be a championship level piece to a puzzle. Collins looked damn good to end the year. Jones could be the best backup point guard in the NBA within a couple years. But until the Spurs understand what Wemby is, everything else has to be in some sort of holding pattern, right?

Yes and no... Yes there's a holding pattern of sorts until the team knows how to properly build around VW, but no you don't hold off on signing Vassell, Tre, etc because the league knows what those guys are. Even if they end up not fitting and need to go you still have the asset at a reasonable number that can be moved for pieces that do fit. Now if either demands something stupid then of course we wait, but if they can be resigned/extended at reasonable numbers you don't hesitate.

[RC_Drunkford]

Great post, Russ.

That's basically where I end up when thinking about what should come next. I've watched just about all of Wemby's tape ... and I still don't know what he'll be in the NBA

He's such a unique prospect that I think you have to let him play out his first season before you start making any assumptions on what he is or what he isn't. And that's part of the reason why I'm not unsure about how much to pay Vassell, Jones, Collins, etc. How do you use cap space before understanding what you have in Wemby? I mean, I really like Vassell -- I think he has it in him to be a championship level piece to a puzzle. Collins looked damn good to end the year. Jones could be the best backup point guard in the NBA within a couple years. But until the Spurs understand what Wemby is, everything else has to be in some sort of holding pattern, right?

That doesn't make no sense. It's somewhat clear what Wembanyama is if you watch his tapes. Also a 3-and-D wing who's able to create his own shot will always be a fit no matter what. A mobile stretch 5 big will at least be a great back up, especially when you look at a team like the Nuggets not even having that type of player off the bench. Same with one of the best back up PGs in the league. You lock all of them up and if you need something else you trade them. Simple.

[tmtcsc]

https://www.spurstalk.com/reevaluati...or-wembanyama/

In reassessing, IMO, I think the Spurs need to be more stubborn about handing out long-term deals. Previously, I liked the idea of extending Vassell, Jones and Collins. Now? Man, I like the idea of having cap flexibility until we get a better read on what Wembanyama is currently and the best type of players to surround him with going forward.

Yeah, I don't think you mess around with Vassell. You pay the guy & hope for the best.

[Mugen]

Outside of injury risk (so maybe don't lock up Zollins for 3+ years), guys like Tre/Devin/Zollins can easily be moved if needed in the next 2-3 years.

[Extra Stout]

That doesn't make no sense. It's somewhat clear what Wembanyama is if you watch his tapes.

I’m a basketball dummy, but for example, if the Spurs pair Wemby with a point guard who can shoot, how do you stop the pick-and-roll? Wemby is a vacuum around the rim, he moves quickly and agilely without the ball, he sets pretty good screens and takes up a lot of room, and if you collapse in the lane to try to stop the p-n-r then he is a rangy shooter. If you switch, he’s got a foot height advantage.