The Costs of Moving Up (or Into) the First Round

[baseline bum]

So my question would be is it worth trading a whole bunch of picks and young players to get a shot at winning 1 championship. You looks at teams that have been compe ive the last few decades they have been built. Spurs, Milwaukee, GS. Lakers (koby/Shaqu), Phily, Miami, Boston. They have added some players but for the most part they were built. Milwaukee would be the team I think of that added the biggest player in holiday. He was thought of as a good player when he was traded for not a great player and I dont remember him being disgruntled but more NO wanting to move on.

Let's look at the Davis trade. Are you going to tell me the Lakers didn't win huge on that? Lonzo Ball was an ok player but not good enough for NO to want to pay him a large contract so they let him walk rather than get anchored to big money for a just kind of good talent. Josh Hart is nothing special. He was included in the trade for CJ McCollum but he wasn't the meat of it, the pick NOP offered Portland was. The #4 pick they got from the Lakers they turned into Jaxson Hayes and a bag of assorted crap. That 2023 unprotected pick swap won't be used since NOP's record is worse than the Lakers' this year. So in effect they traded Davis for Brandon Ingram, a bag of crap, and their choice of either the 2024 or 2025 Lakers first round pick.

Getting one le is enormous. Before the Spurs won the lottery for Tim you wouldn't have traded your left nut to get David some help to win a le? I would have. The Spurs front office is going to be under pressure to put a le contender around Wemby. Last thing they want is for Wemby to become a one man team and get sick of it and walk like we saw with LeBron in Cleveland. I'll trade four birds in the bush if the one in the hand is the right guy. Eg like KG was, like Davis was, like Shaq was, like Kareem was, like Kawhi was, etc.

[Big Empty]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks

• Spurs First-Round Pick
• Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
• Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
• Lakers Second-Round Pick
• Pelicans Second-Round Pick

[cd98]

The 2000 bubble/Disney 'championship' was during the height of a pandemic when most players were completely checked out and worried about their families and their own safety. NBA shouldn't have even bothered, weak-ass whatever it was.

Yes, I've always felt this way. I mean, I think it is also that the games were played without any travel, without playing on an opposing team's court with fans, and without the same pressure that is usually there in the playoffs. I considered that the rec league championship. It mirrored pick up games. I just don't think the pressure was there like it would have been had there been a season like every other.

[cd98]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks

• Spurs First-Round Pick
• Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
• Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
• Lakers Second-Round Pick
• Pelicans Second-Round Pick

I think the Spurs have one year to assess what they got. It could be that Vassell or Sochan or even maybe Johnson (I feel like he will be traded) turn out to be legit all star players. Give them a season, see how good Wemby is, and then if it looks like he's special, look for another superstar with draft capital. It would need to be a superstar under 30. Preferably someone that is 25-26 age range. But relying on hitting every pick in the draft is too risky. And while I think the Spurs are one of the best at developing the talent they have, it takes a lot of time to develop (often 3 years), and even if you hit, you will eventually need to afford all those good players with the salary cap. Better to trade those assets and get a young star, if possible. Who knows if one will become available? Or if they want to come to SA, but next year is the year to decide whether to chip in the assets for another player or not.

But I agree, anyone over 30 is not on the Spurs timeline and they should not trade their assets for someone like that.

[exstatic]

Yes, I've always felt this way. I mean, I think it is also that the games were played without any travel, without playing on an opposing team's court with fans, and without the same pressure that is usually there in the playoffs. I considered that the rec league championship. It mirrored pick up games. I just don't think the pressure was there like it would have been had there been a season like every other.

Not to mention that two guys that have a history of breaking down late in the season both got a LONG break right in the middle of the season, like 5-6 months to heal up and renew.

[Extra Stout]

What superstar fits those criteria other than Luka Doncic? And it is realistic to think he’s going to force his way out of Dallas?

[exstatic]

What superstar fits those criteria other than Luka Doncic? And it is realistic to think he’s going to force his way out of Dallas?

He can't be too happy with the way things are going.

[Ariel]

Patience. This time next year theres going to be another freshman phenom thats gonna be available with one of our possible 3 first round picks that we’ll be excited about. I just cant see a rookie Wemby going off this year and the Spurs making the playoffs. We will be a lottery team again with our own 8/9th pick and all the others. By the time Wemby is coming to the end of his rookie contract we’d have no excuse why we havnt surrounded him with a Robin with all these picks. 2024 NBA Draft Picks

• Spurs First-Round Pick
• Hornets First-Round Pick (Lottery Protected)
• Raptors First-Round Pick (Top-Six Protected)
• Lakers Second-Round Pick
• Pelicans Second-Round Pick

It's NOLA/Chicago 2nd (best one), and you forgot the Spurs own '24 2nd (traded with 31-54 protection, meaning it won't convey unless Spurs are a top 6 record overall).
That makes 3 2nd rounders next draft, plus we have 2 2nds now and 2/3 firsts next year. We can't have that many rookies, something's got to give and it better be soon or else their value will plummet.
Brooklyn has 2 firsts in this draft (21 + 22) and no picks next year either in the first or second round. One of those picks could well be a target.
Possible offers:
#33 + Lakers '24 2nd + best of NOLA/Chicago '24 2nd + worst of Chicago/Toronto '25 2nd
or (less ideally)
Charlotte's '24 first (may not convey but if it does it'll be better) + #44 + worst 2 of Lakers/NOLA/Chicago '24.
That'd help balance the picks incoming, and better the quality. Brooklyn likely wouldn't use all those 2nds, but flip them in future deals. Something like that could work IMO.

[rascal]

It's NOLA/Chicago 2nd (best one), and you forgot the Spurs own '24 2nd (traded with 31-54 protection, meaning it won't convey unless Spurs are a top 6 record overall).
That makes 3 2nd rounders next draft, plus we have 2 2nds now and 2/3 firsts next year. We can't have that many rookies, something's got to give and it better be soon or else their value will plummet.
Brooklyn has 2 firsts in this draft (21 + 22) and no picks next year either in the first or second round. One of those picks could well be a target.
Possible offers:
#33 + Lakers '24 2nd + best of NOLA/Chicago '24 2nd + worst of Chicago/Toronto '25 2nd
or (less ideally)
Charlotte's '24 first (may not convey but if it does it'll be better) + #44 + worst 2 of Lakers/NOLA/Chicago '24.
That'd help balance the picks incoming, and better the quality. Brooklyn likely wouldn't use all those 2nds, but flip them in future deals. Something like that could work IMO.

Basically try getting higher draft picks and move quan y for quality.

[Extra Stout]

If the Spurs already see someone in the 2023 draft they think scores out high enough to be a second star, they should be aggressive with their draft assets and go get him if possible. Scoot probably is not possible.

If all they see are potential solid role players, then I think it makes more sense to hold onto those assets and be patient. Those kinds of players will continue to be available.

The exception would be to package the Charlotte pick with some second-rounded to move up into the 20’s in this draft, because that Charlotte pick is only 50/50 to convey as a FRP anyway.

The Spurs need to find one or two more All-Star-caliber players to join Wembanyama by the end of his first contract. That should take priority over optimizing the 2023-24 team.

[rascal]

If the Spurs already see someone in the 2023 draft they think scores out high enough to be a second star, they should be aggressive with their draft assets and go get him if possible. Scoot probably is not possible.

If all they see are potential solid role players, then I think it makes more sense to hold onto those assets and be patient. Those kinds of players will continue to be available.

The exception would be to package the Charlotte pick with some second-rounded to move up into the 20’s in this draft, because that Charlotte pick is only 50/50 to convey as a FRP anyway.

The Spurs need to find one or two more All-Star-caliber players to join Wembanyama by the end of his first contract. That should take priority over optimizing the 2023-24 team.

Spurs need to be proactive and start the process of building around their franchise player and if they see a player in this draft they like combine some of the draft picks and go for him.

Many of their future draft picks, with the exception of maybe Atlanta's unprotected, will be no better quality players as they already have on the current roster because they will fall outside the lottery.

[Mr. Body]

For me, this draft:

- Rules at the number 1 pick
- Is okay at the number 2 pick
- Is really iffy from picks 3 to about 7
- Is potentially okay to disappointing from picks 8 to about 12
- Could have a lot of bargains/steals from picks 13 to 19 or so
- Gets more slippery and long-term from picks 20 to 30
- Early second round there may be some great picks who have lasted the FR

All this depends on how things actually go and I factor in the nominal quality of the pick vs. the players who will be picked there. Basically, Wemby rules, Scoot is okay, then Brandon Miller, the Thompsons, Cam, and even Jarace and Hendricks are going to be picked higher than their nominal draft slot. They're all overrated, even if I like some of them.

Then will come guards (maybe) for Washington and Utah and they may reach. Dallas might wind up with or Lively or something. goes at 11 if he drops.

Then... I see a lot of steals. Potentially pick after pick in the late lottery into the teens and maybe first 20 or 21 will be guys who sort of overshoot their draft spots. Will they all pan out? No, of course not. Will they be stars? Probably not, but you have potentially great role-players, starters, and decent shots at more. Compared to where you're getting them, there's going to be a lot of good picks.

How deep the steals go depends on if a team does something stupid like reach for Noah Clowney types, which always happens.

Then 20-30 will be more projects like Rayan Rupert and Bobi Klintman and Maxwell Lewis. Also, higher floor, lower ceiling guys like Kris Murray and Colby Jones, and then Brandin Podziemski in there somewhere.

tl;dr: I think the middle part of this year's first round has more value than usual middle first rounds.

[rascal]

For me, this draft:

- Rules at the number 1 pick
- Is okay at the number 2 pick
- Is really iffy from picks 3 to about 7
- Is potentially okay to disappointing from picks 8 to about 12
- Could have a lot of bargains/steals from picks 13 to 19 or so
- Gets more slippery and long-term from picks 20 to 30
- Early second round there may be some great picks who have lasted the FR

All this depends on how things actually go and I factor in the nominal quality of the pick vs. the players who will be picked there. Basically, Wemby rules, Scoot is okay, then Brandon Miller, the Thompsons, Cam, and even Jarace and Hendricks are going to be picked higher than their nominal draft slot. They're all overrated, even if I like some of them.

Then will come guards (maybe) for Washington and Utah and they may reach. Dallas might wind up with or Lively or something. goes at 11 if he drops.

Then... I see a lot of steals. Potentially pick after pick in the late lottery into the teens and maybe first 20 or 21 will be guys who sort of overshoot their draft spots. Will they all pan out? No, of course not. Will they be stars? Probably not, but you have potentially great role-players, starters, and decent shots at more. Compared to where you're getting them, there's going to be a lot of good picks.

How deep the steals go depends on if a team does something stupid like reach for Noah Clowney types, which always happens.

Then 20-30 will be more projects like Rayan Rupert and Bobi Klintman and Maxwell Lewis. Also, higher floor, lower ceiling guys like Kris Murray and Colby Jones, and then Brandin Podziemski in there somewhere.

tl;dr: I think the middle part of this year's first round has more value than usual middle first rounds.

I agree

If the Spurs can't put a package together to land Scoot which is highly unlikely as they would need a third team(Spurs, Toronto, Portland/Charlotte), then they should target those middle first round picks.

Those mid teen picks are where value can be found at a reasonable cost.

[Extra Stout]

Spurs need to be proactive and start the process of building around their franchise player and if they see a player in this draft they like combine some of the draft picks and go for him.

Many of their future draft picks, with the exception of maybe Atlanta's unprotected, will be no better quality players as they already have on the current roster because they will fall outside the lottery.

Yeah, while it’s not impossible to find stars outside the lottery, the probability is low, and the picks in the 20’s have to be home run swings a la Blake Wesley.

I’m confident that Brian Wright understands how to maximize his odds.

I don’t understand the double-mindedness of the high-level understanding that this roster is not good enough to contend as-is together with attachment to each individual player. I do not at all agree that the Spurs would have been good enough to make the play-in had they not tried so hard to tank. I think the tanking cost fewer than 10 wins.

[Mr. Body]

The team already has All-Star capable players on the team. I could identify possibilities if necessary.

Most of the players on the team are extremely young. There's this weird sense that they won't improve and are stuck who they are right now. As if, say, we haven't had very good players develop in the past. Oh, say, a Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard. No one would have pegged Dejounte Murray as an All-Star when he was drafted.

It's not necessary to have multiple All-Stars to win a Championship, much less go deep in the playoffs. The days of super teams are over. Milwaukee had one All-Star. Denver has one All-Star. Tony and Manu barely ever made the All-Star team. These fixations are really weird.

[Extra Stout]

I think you need to handicap the likelihood that a Jeremy Sochan or Devin Vassell or Blake Wesley will each become an All-Star or close to it. You can’t say that it’s possible therefore Brian Wright can just sit on his hands.

[Mr. Body]

I think you need to handicap the likelihood that a Jeremy Sochan or Devin Vassell or Blake Wesley will each become an All-Star or close to it.

Why? I think Sochan or Vassell could easily become All-Stars.

[Extra Stout]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

[Mr. Body]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

I mean, what the are we even talking about? You want to dismiss the talented young players we have and then say that All-Star is some nebulous category? I'm not even sure what the point is here.

[Extra Stout]

Why? I think Sochan or Vassell could easily become All-Stars.

It’s not a sure thing. To throw numbers out there, maybe it’s 40% for Sochan, 20% for Vassell, and 10% for Wesley, just for arguments’ sake. That leaves a 44% chance that there’s nobody on the roster who will get there. So if you’re Brian Wright, you still need to be swinging.

[exstatic]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.

[Extra Stout]

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.

I think the concept is clear and you’re just migrating into sophistry.

[exstatic]

I think the concept is clear and you’re just migrating into sophistry.

If it's so clear, then give me the definition of "All Star caliber NBA player".

[Ariel]

And it’s just blatant disingenuous misrepresentative cherry-picking to claim that Khris Middleton or Jamal Murray are not All-Star-caliber players.

100%. Khris Middleton is a 3 time all star (2019, 2020 and 2022) and Jrue Holiday is a 2 time all star caliber player. Jamal Murray is coming off a very long injury and just now is getting back from his former self after the bubble run, but there's no doubt he's an all star (I'd say all NBA) caliber player. Manu played the regular season at one pace and the post season at another, but playoff Manu was all NBA. Bottom line, you need at the very least 2 if not 3 such players to win a championship, let alone multiple ones. You can do without the regular season stat padding for individual accolades, but at the end of the day if you don't have those guys when it counts, you're toast.

[Ariel]

Now you're getting into a gray area by using the word 'caliber'. What does that even mean? You're either an All Star, elected by the fans, or named as a reserve or injury replacement, or you're not.

It means that if picking a player for a given series, you're at least at the level of someone who made those teams at your position. Joe Johnson was a 7 time all star. Is Jamal Murray worse than him in a 7 game series? I think not. Same for Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Manu. They didn't put up spectacular regular season stats, but when the playoffs start, they move up a gear.