Reply With Quote
Isn’t he projected to be a late 1st.
After a slow start of the season, Risacher is starting to look good: 24 points in 21 minutes today.
Isn’t he projected to be a late 1st.
Tankathon has him going 3rd (the top of Tier 2 prospects)
He was #11 in espn mock draft a week ago.
Tankathon has him going 3rd, but they are the highest I've seen.
Tankathon is a great source for a lot of draft related areas, but their scouting isn't precisely top notch, early on they have a lot of wacky mocks. I wouldn't put too much stock on it.
Oh, I know... I was just responding to someone who asked if he was expected to be a late 1st.
Ranking any player against other players who haven't even played yet seems kind of pointless at this point.
There's a lot of uncertainty involved in ranking players this early, but it's done even in high school and it's definitely not without a point. For starters, at the very least it serves as a broad guide on where to look.
No, it's completely pointless and stupid. It's done to keep up a small industry of nonsense to ensure they get paid. The rankings barely make sense partly because none of the scouts actually watch all the players, because they can't, but they sell their guidance because fans don't know to leave well enough alone. There's no point to look at draft prospects until they actually play and play for a while. Why the would there be a ranking at this point? They're never even close to where things end up.
Dude, there are literally thousands of prospects all over the world, you need to prioritize somehow and it's only a starting point. What do you propose, drawing names at random from every breathing human not already drafted?
I propose not giving a or arguing about who has the best rankings in ing October. Lol, like I said, it's pointless. Go look at all the ESPN or other rankings as players go into college. They're ing WRONG all the time. We've already discussed how last year's rankings of the 2023 draft at this point were WRONG. And here we have users pissing and moaning about how Tankathon might be wrong right now. Holy , most of the players haven't even stepped on a college basketball court yet.
Here is ESPN's high school rankings for 2021.
It's just... straight up garbage. Many of their highly ranked players weren't even good in college. And vanishingly few look to be even respectable as pros. There are some who will be, others they wildly overrated, and other players they missed entirely.
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...021/order/true
I'm going to jump on the Nikola Topic bandwagon early for one of the spurs' draft picks come June. Currently mocked as high as 15 but not even appearing on most draft boards. Good size, decent athleticism, stylistically similar to manu. Good stats last year, has had 2 pretty insane games this year for being 18 in the adriatic league. He's exactly the type of big combo guard that would fit next to vassell moving forward as a guy who can create, get to the rim, and not get bullied on switches.
I hate the business model of his team (KK Mega Basket). It's a team that is owned by an agent, who is also Topic's agent. This team is mostly a way to showcase his clients and there are so much possible conflicts of interest there.
Saying that, what Topic is doing is indeed very impressive with the usual question mark about how his game with translate in the NBA.
I took a look at every top 15 pick in the last 3 drafts that was a high school senior in the USA the year before, here's the list (in parenthesis the recruiting ranking the previous year):
2023 NBA draft / 2021 ESPN recruiting class
2) Brandon Miller (9)
6) Anthony Black (15)
8) Jarace Walker (10)
9) Taylor Hendricks (59)
10) Cason Wallace (21)
11) Jett Howard (44)
12) Dereck Lively (1)
13) Gradey (14)
2022 NBA draft / 2021 ESPN recruiting class
1) Paolo Banchero (4)
2) Chet Holmgren (1)
3) Jabari Smith (6)
13) Jalen Duren (7)
2021 NBA draft / 2020 ESPN recruiting class
1) Cade Cunningham (2)
2) Jalen Green (1)
3) Evan Mobley (3)
4) Scottie Barnes (5)
5) Jalen Suggs (6)
7) Jonathan Kuminga (4)
10) Ziaire Williams (8)
14) Moses Moody (45)
So while not every highly ranked recruit ends top a high pick, just about every high pick that qualified to be ranked (HS senior the year prior) did so very highly:
* 70% (14/20) were top 10
* 80% (16/20) top 15
* 85% (17/20) top 25
* 95% (19/20) top 50
* 100% (20/20) top 60
In short, if you were a US HS senior who qualified and didn't make the list, your chances of being a high pick the next year are slim to none, making it a necessary (but not sufficient) condition. I'd say this certainly qualifies as an EXCELLENT starting point for scouting US based players, and everyone is free to make their own opinion by watching them play.
So I guess a thank you is in order, I wasn't really aware to what extend that was an accurate starting point, you just made me realize it was much better than I thought
.
Ariel with the Mr. Body slam!!!!
Yeah, you and anyone who would look at Ariel ‘s post without a second glance would think that. But if you look at it closer, it’s incredibly misleading— especially his summary data. There was absolutely no reason to sum up the count of top 15 drafted one year out of high school across three years. If this was intentional, it proves no point and he needs to do a better job.
The statement, “every high pick qualified to be ranked did highly”, and using the logic that he used is disingenuous as . Let me give you an example of what he did.
Example:
For the last three years, I have 10 unique apple trees that grow annually and they’re numbered 1-30 in numerical order.
Trees 1-5 grew apples (5 trees total from the first year)
Trees 10-15 grew apples (6 trees total from the second year)
Trees 20-22 grew apples (3 trees total from the third year)
If we are trying to respond to Mr. Body ‘s posts the objective would be to answer the following question: “how many of these apple trees were fruitful on an ANNUAL BASIS (because looking at a count across x years is pointless. You don’t draft players from the years before)?”
instead the answer that Ariel provided was, “how many apple trees were there in total in the past three years?”
Yeah… of course the results would look high, all you did was count the total against your own data. You didn’t even try to look at the average annually.
Mr Body’s premise was that the high school prospects and how they were ranked was being overrated. Except in 2021 (which may be an outlier year), his statement holds true when looking at your data.
the better way to do this, and i’m typing all of this through my phone, would be to do something like this:
In 2023,
Of the high school seniors who were drafted into the top 15 in the NBA: five of them were actually highly touted in high school (top 15 qualifier also) and so using high school rankings would be 33% accurate
in 2022,
Using high school rankings would be 26.7% accurate
in 2021,
using high school rankings would be 46.7% accurate
and then I looked to see if 2021 was an outlier year, so i checked 2020:
there were three top 15 highly touted high school players the year before so using high school rankings would be 20% accurate.
i’m surprised the other data professional on this board scott didnt catch this tbh
I would argue that “accuracy rates” of 33, 27, 47 and 20% are still quite significant, meaningful and dare I say “good” when you consider the talent pipeline is a funnel that consistently reduces down prospects while the level of available information increases.””
I’m also not entirely sure what the argument is here. Rankings are useful if for nothing else than resource allocation. This even holds true among fans whose opinions are largely inconsequential (it helps guide fans who have limited time available to watch the next generation of stars).
Any projection made while there are still variables yet to be determined is going to be inaccurate, and the level of error will be directly correlated with the degree of uncertainty remaining around those variables. Cam Boozer and Cooper Flagg, for example, may never actually play in the NBA, or may not end up the top prospect when it comes time to draft them. Does that mean there is no value in rating and monitoring them now?
TL;DR: None of our opinions actually matter, so I don’t understand why people get so in a huff about other people having opinions that don’t matter. People are here for entertainment, the Spurs aren’t scouring these boards for their next GM.
I’m neither here or there with how the data I provided is used, just pointing out how dangerous and easy it is to mislead a group people when using numbers, long paragraphs, and eloquence as such in the original post by Ariel.
But did Flagg or Boozer eat more apples?
I really like what I've seen of Topic. I get young Tony Parker vibes with that amazing speed and quickness.
I mean, ofc it makes sense to talk about next year draft right now. Plenty of time to get familiar or follow a small cast of College and international players who could be drafted, and, for most for them, will. Does anybody decently believe NBA GMs are sitting on their asses until March before deciding who they're gonna scout?
Risacher is already on every NBA team's radar, for himself, and for the Wemby effect. Spurs have been following international youth compe ion for decades, they didn't wait 2 weeks before the draft to get familiar with Manu. Ofc, that's not an exact science and there's some waste, but that's the game.
Makes sense to talk about it now if u make money off it...otherwise rather be playing the game than talking about something a year away...or a whole list of better more important things
You sure lose a lot of your precious time coming in that forum and thread saying you're not interested and what people should talk about or notWhy are you even here if you have much more important things to do or talk about? I mean besides trying to evangelise everyone and their brother on a BB forum...
But let us know how much money do you make in the threads you're actually interested in posting... if you can't understand that's the whole purporse of a BB fan forum, playing the little GMs or coaches, like any NBA fan board do, many posters actually bringing quality, pertinent content. This is BB, not Rocket Science either, you do'nt need to be a FO guy or player and make money to talk about it.
What do YOU bring here, except ranting and telling everyone what they should do...? Nothing but your negativity. But believe it or not, plenty posters will keep discussing the next draft thoughout the year, and you'll keep reading it.
There are currently 21 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 21 guests)
Posting Permissions
